career trajectories: a study in change -...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2017 IBM Corporation
Career Trajectories: A Study in Change
Paul E. McKenney, IBM Distinguished Engineer, Linux Technology Center
Member, IBM Academy of Technology
OSU EE 111, November 2, 2017
© 2017 IBM Corporation2
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Important Software Tools In My Early Career
© 2017 IBM Corporation3
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Important Software Tools In My Early Career
Image courtesy of Konstantin Lanzet, CC BY-SA 3.0.
© 2017 IBM Corporation4
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Important Software Tools In My Early Career
Image courtesy of Konstantin Lanzet, CC BY-SA 3.0.
© 2017 IBM Corporation5
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Important Software Tools In My Early Career
Image courtesy of Konstantin Lanzet, CC BY-SA 3.0.
Because you should never trust bits that are not visible to the naked eye!
© 2017 IBM Corporation6
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Project Running Out of Core Memory (4096 Words!)
The Retro-Computing Society of Rhode Island, Inc. http://www.rcsri.org/collection/pdp-12/
© 2017 IBM Corporation7
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Our Editor? An ASR33 Teletype!!!
By Marcin Wichary, User:AlanM1 - Derived (cropped) from, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=20744606
© 2017 IBM Corporation8
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
1977 PDP-12 System: Vital Statistics
Memory: 4096 12-bit words (two characters per word)
256Kword “mass storage”: Two DECtape drives–Extremely robust: Could punch holes in tape and read without errors–Networking: 110 baud serial connection to teletype
Two (count them, two!) registers: A and Q–Oh, and a one-bit “link” register for overflow/carry detection
Add, AND, rotate, and multiply instructions–You want floating point? Then implement it in software!
CPU Clock Frequency: 625 kilohertz
© 2017 IBM Corporation9
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
But We Achieved Full-Rate Video: >20 FPS
© 2017 IBM Corporation10
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
But We Achieved Full-Rate Video: >>20 FPS
© 2017 IBM Corporation11
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
But We Achieved Full-Rate Video: >>20 FPS
© 2017 IBM Corporation12
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Highly Optimized Sine and Cosine Functions
/ RETURNS SIN(AC), AC IS IN 128THS/ OF A CIRCLE, SINE IS OF FORM/ +S.BBBBBBBBBBB SINSRC, 0 AND TRGMSK TAD SNTABL DCA TRGSTO TAD I TRGSTO JMP I SINSRC SNTABL, SINTBL / RETURNS COS(AC) COSRCH, 0 AND TRGMSK TAD CSTABL DCA TRGSTO TAD I TRGSTO JMP I COSRCH CSTABL, COSTBLTRGMSK, 0177
Bryan Miller and Paul E. McKenney, 1977
© 2017 IBM Corporation13
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
1977 PDP-12 System: Vital Statistics
Memory: 4096 12-bit words (two characters per word)
CPU Clock Frequency: 625 kilohertz
Two (count them, two!) registers: A and Q–Oh, and a one-bit “link” register for overflow/carry detection
Add, AND, rotate, and multiply instructions–You want floating point? Then implement it in software!
256Kword “mass storage”: Two DECtape drives–Extremely robust: Could punch holes in tape and read without errors
Networking: 110 baud serial connection to teletype
Low low price of $25K!!!
© 2017 IBM Corporation14
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Much Better Than 1949 CSIRAC!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSIRAC Photo by John O'Neill under GNU FDL v1.2
© 2017 IBM Corporation15
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
1949: CSIRAC Vital Statistics
CSIRAC: Oldest intact electronic stored-program computer–Operational in November 1949 at University of Melbourne
2,000 Vacuum tubes: Each an incandescent lightbulb in size–And less capable than a transistor: Need more tubes than transistors
768 words of memory, 20 bits each, in mercury delay lines–Hence “surviving” rather than operational
• 2017 safety regs unforgiving of metallic mercury and exposed 600V wiring
CPU core clock frequency of... 1KHz
Energy-efficient design sips only 30kW
Price? $10,000,000 AU
© 2017 IBM Corporation16
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
2017 Smartphone SoC Vital Statistics
Samsung Galaxy S8
8-core 64-bit CPU
Several gigabytes of DRAM (but only eight bits wide)
CPU core clock frequency of... 1.7GHz - 2.3GHz
Energy-efficient design sips way less than 30W–Let alone 30KW – call it 3W
Price? $750 US
Plus has cellular modem, WiFi, camera, display, touchscreen, audio, Bluetooth, DSP, GPU, GPS, NFC, USB, Flash, ...
© 2017 IBM Corporation17
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
What a Difference 68 Years Makes!!!
CSIRAC Galaxy S8 OOM Doublings
CPUs 1 8 0.90 3.00
CPU Clock 1KHz 1.7GHz 6.23 20.70
RAM (bits) 15,360 17,179,869,184 6.05 20.09
Power 30KW ~3W 4.00 13.29
Price $10,000,000 $750 4.12 13.70
Overall 21.31 70.78
Not allowing for cellular modem, WiFi, camera, display, touchscreen, audio, Bluetooth, DSP, GPU, GPS, NFC, USB, Flash, …
Not allowing for currency conversion or (much more important) inflation, which is another factor of 10
© 2017 IBM Corporation19
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Killer App: Quantum Mechanical Dynamics (QMD)
0 1 2 3 4I n t e r a t o m i c d i s t a n c e ( A n g s t r o m )
- 1 . 2
- 1
- 0 . 8
- 0 . 6
- 0 . 4
- 0 . 2
0
0 . 2
0 . 4
Ener
gy (H
artre
e) 0
5 0
1 0 0
1 2 3 4 5I n t e r a t o m i c d i s t a n c e ( A n g s t r o m )
- 8
- 7 . 8
- 7 . 6
- 7 . 4
- 7 . 2
- 7
- 6 . 8
- 6 . 6
Ener
gy (H
artre
e) 0
2 0
4 0
CR
2-1
Q1
Q2
Q3 Q4 Q5
Q7
Q6 Q 1
Q 2
Q 3 Q 4 Q 5
Q 7
Q 6
H H
H Li
1 2 3 4 5I n t e r a t o m i c d i s t a n c e ( A n g s t r o m )
- 1 5 . 5
- 1 5
- 1 4 . 5
- 1 4
- 1 3 . 5
- 1 3
- 1 2 . 5
- 1 2
Ener
gy (H
artre
e) 0
2 0
4 0
CR
2-1
C R 4 - 5
Q 1
Q 2
Q 3 Q 4 Q 5
Q 7
Q 6
Be H H
a b c
IBM used up to six qubits of its superconducting quantum processor to address electronic structure problems for the molecules H2, LiH and BeH2
50-qubit system performance/scalability PoC planned
A. Kandala, A. Mezzacapo, K. Temme, M. Takita, M. Brink, J. M. Chow, J. M. Gambetta, arXiv 1704.0518,Nature (2017, in press embargo)
© 2017 IBM Corporation20
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
But the Progress is Not Just in Computing!!!
© 2017 IBM Corporation21
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
But the Progress is Not Just in Computing!!!50 Years of Progress in Mathematics
1970: Proof that Hilbert’s 10th problem is unsolvable
1976: Proof of the four-color problem (stood for centuries)
1984: Polynomial-time algorithm for solving linear programming problems
1994: Proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem (stood for centuries)
1998: Proof of Kepler’s conjecture (sphere packing, stood for centuries)
2002: Proof of Catalan’s conjecture (23 and 32, stood for centuries)
2002: Polynomial-time integer primality test
2003: Proof of the Poincaré conjecture (topology)
2004: Proof of the classification of finite simple groups
2013: Proof that there is no bound on the values of pairs of primes differing by a finite number (first real progress in more than two millennia)
© 2017 IBM Corporation22
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
But the Progress is Not Just in Computing!!!50 Years of Progress in Mathematics
1970: Proof that Hilbert’s 10th problem is unsolvable
1976: Proof of the four-color problem (stood for centuries)
1984: Polynomial-time algorithm for solving linear programming problems
1994: Proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem (stood for centuries)
1998: Proof of Kepler’s conjecture (sphere packing, stood for centuries)
2002: Proof of Catalan’s conjecture (23 and 32, stood for centuries)
2002: Polynomial-time integer primality test
2003: Proof of the Poincaré conjecture (topology)
2004: Proof of the classification of finite simple groups
2013: Proof that there is no bound on the values of pairs of primes differing by a finite number (first real progress in more than two millennia)
You are living in
a golden age
You are living in
a golden age
surpassing all golden ages!!!
surpassing all golden ages!!!
© 2017 IBM Corporation23
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Computing Mostly Here
Where Might Your Career Go?
Ask Tell
People
ThingsResearcher Superprogrammer
© 2017 IBM Corporation24
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Where Might Your Career Go?
Your career might go a lot of different places
No education system on this earth can prepare you for all the different things you might need to do
–In 1976-1981, would OSU have prepared me for the Web? Mobile? Open-source licensing? Other legal issues?
Your education is a foundation to support life-long learning
© 2017 IBM Corporation25
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Expanding Our Educational Foundations
© 2017 IBM Corporation26
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Education Is A Foundation
And foundations need maintenance, repair, and sometimes expansion!
http://www.fixmyfoundation.com/
© 2017 IBM Corporation28
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Expanding My Educational Foundation
BS Mechanical Engineering, Oregon State University, 1981
BS Computer Science, Oregon State University, 1981
© 2017 IBM Corporation29
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Expanding My Educational Foundation
BS Mechanical Engineering, Oregon State University, 1981
BS Computer Science, Oregon State University, 1981
MS Computer Science, Oregon State University, 1988
© 2017 IBM Corporation30
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Expanding My Educational Foundation
BS Mechanical Engineering, Oregon State University, 1981
BS Computer Science, Oregon State University, 1981
MS Computer Science, Oregon State University, 1988
Ph.D. Computer Science and Engineering, OGI School of Science and Engineering at Oregon Health & Sciences University, 2004
© 2017 IBM Corporation31
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Expanding My Educational Foundation
BS Mechanical Engineering, Oregon State University, 1981
BS Computer Science, Oregon State University, 1981
MS Computer Science, Oregon State University, 1988
Ph.D. Computer Science and Engineering, OGI School of Science and Engineering at Oregon Health & Sciences University, 2004
But I have never taken a course on artificial intelligence, C language, hardware architecture, version control, software validation, IP law, or thread-based parallel programming
© 2017 IBM Corporation32
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Expanding My Educational Foundation
BS Mechanical Engineering, Oregon State University, 1981
BS Computer Science, Oregon State University, 1981
MS Computer Science, Oregon State University, 1988
Ph.D. Computer Science and Engineering, OGI School of Science and Engineering at Oregon Health & Sciences University, 2004
But I have never taken a course on artificial intelligence, C language, hardware architecture, version control, software validation, IP law, or thread-based parallel programming
–I instead learned these critically important topics on the job
© 2017 IBM Corporation33
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
How My Career Evolved
1977-1980–Business applications in FORTRAN and COBOL
1981-1985–Soft real-time systems in PASCAL, assembly, and C
1986-1990–UNIX systems administration, networking research in C on SunOS
1990-1999–Parallel UNIX kernel hacking in C on DYNIX/ptx
1999-2000–Parallel UNIX kernel hacking in C on AIX
2001-present–Parallel, real-time, and energy-efficient kernel hacking in C on Linux
© 2017 IBM Corporation34
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
How Might Things Change in the Future?
If you are 18 years old and plan to retire at age 70: 2069!!!
© 2017 IBM Corporation35
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
How Might Things Change in the Future?
If you are 18 years old and plan to retire at age 70: 2069!!!
Not much is known about the year 2069–Anyone who will be over 50 has already been born
© 2017 IBM Corporation36
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
How Might Things Change in the Future?
If you are 18 years old and plan to retire at age 70: 2069!!!
Not much is known about the year 2069–Anyone who will be over 50 has already been born–Unless someone invents a time machine
© 2017 IBM Corporation37
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
How Might Things Change in the Future?
If you are 18 years old and plan to retire at age 70: 2069!!!
Not much is known about the year 2069–Anyone who will be over 50 has already been born–Unless someone invents a time machine
But we can look at changes since 1965:
© 2017 IBM Corporation38
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
How Might Things Change in the Future?
If you are 18 years old and plan to retire at age 70: 2069!!!
Not much is known about the year 2069–Anyone who will be over 50 has already been born–Unless someone invents a time machine
But we can look at changes since 1965:–Windows and icons and mice created and took over the world–Ethernet created, took over the world, supplanted by WiFi–Intel x86 was created and took over much of the world–LEDs red/infrared lab curiosities to pretty much any color at low price–DOS created, took over much of the world, obsoleted by Windows–Cellphones were created and took over much of the world–UNIX and then Linux were created and took over much of the world–World wide web was created and took over much of the world–Smartphones were created and took over much of the world–Self-driving cars were created, and might be taking over the world
© 2017 IBM Corporation40
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
But Some Things Never Change
Quality is always critically important–But what constitutes “quality” varies over both time and space
Communication, both verbal and written is critically important–Beyond a certain point, an idea you cannot communicate is useless–And there is a big advantage of written communication as you age...
Your job will probably become more about people over time–Hence the “communication” point above and the “scope” point below
Your scope must increase over time–What was good enough then is probably not good enough now...
© 2017 IBM Corporation42
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
How Can You Increase Your Scope?
Over time, anyone in a technical field must increase their scope just to maintain a constant level of seniority:
–Move to management or program management–Move to “hot” field du jour (for example, evangelist or trainer)–Training (both giving and taking)–Move to sales, technical sales support, technical marketing–Increase technical skill/efficiency–Practice, practice, practice: strive for fluency–Create artifacts that are widely used
© 2017 IBM Corporation43
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
One Way To Increase Your Scope
Computing Mostly Here
Ask Tell
People
ThingsResearcher Superprogrammer
ManagerProfessor
AnalysisInbound Marketing
© 2017 IBM Corporation45
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
“Scope” Means Different Things In Different Areas
Hardware
Firmware
Operating-System Kernel
System Libraries
Frameworks/Middleware (e.g., NoSQL)
Applications
Web/Mobile
ProductivityP
erfo
rman
ce Gen
e rality
© 2017 IBM Corporation46
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
How Can You Increase Your Scope?
Over time, anyone in a technical field must increase their scope just to maintain a constant level of seniority:
–Move to management or program management–Move to “hot” field du jour–Training (both giving and taking)–Move to sales, technical sales support, technical marketing–Increase technical skill/efficiency–Practice, practice, practice: strive for fluency–Create artifacts that are widely used–Avoid carrying the burdens of the past
© 2017 IBM Corporation47
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Software Quality and Burdens of the Past
Software's master or software's prisoner?–Hard to increase your scope while a prisoner of your SW's bugs!!!
© 2017 IBM Corporation48
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Software Quality and Burdens of the Past
Software's master or software's prisoner?–Hard to increase your scope while a prisoner of your SW's bugs!!!–But there is a time and place for “fast and dirty” software...
© 2017 IBM Corporation50
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Summary
Education is a foundation for your career–You will need to maintain it, add to it, and build on top of it–The world will change, and your skill set must change with it
But some things never change–Importance of communication and quality, the need to increase your
scope over time, and the need to increase your people skills over time
You will need to let go of some of the past to grasp the future–Which of today's technologies are tomorrow's core memory?
© 2017 IBM Corporation51
Education: A Foundation For Your Career
Summary
Education is a foundation for your career–You will need to maintain it, add to it, and build on top of it–The world will change, and your skill set must change with it
But some things never change–Importance of communication and quality, the need to increase your
scope over time, and the need to increase your people skills over time
You will need to let go of some of the past to grasp the future–Which of today's technologies are tomorrow's core memory?–Tell which is which and you'll be rich!!!