capacity planning: break-even analysis
DESCRIPTION
Capacity Planning Break-Even Point Ardavan Asef-Vaziri Systems and Operations Management College of Business and Economics California State University, Northridge. Capacity Planning: Break-Even Analysis . Operation costs are divided into 2 main groups: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Capacity PlanningBreak-Even Point
Ardavan Asef-VaziriSystems and Operations Management
College of Business and EconomicsCalifornia State University, Northridge
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2Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Capacity Planning: Break-Even Analysis Operation costs are divided into 2 main groups: Fixed costs – Costs of Human and Capital Resources
wages, depreciation, rent, property tax, property insurance.
the total fixed cost is fixed throughout the year. No matter if we produce one unit or one million units. It does not depend on the production level.
fixed cost per unit of production is variable. Variable costs – Costs of Inputs
raw material, packaging material, supplies, production water and power.
The total variable costs depend on the volume of production. The higher the production level, the higher the total variable costs.
variable cost per unit of production is fixed.
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3Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Five Elements of the Process View
OutputsGoods
Services
Human & Capital
Informationstructure
Network ofActivities and BuffersInputs
(natural or processed resources, parts and components, energy, data, customers, cash, etc.) Resources
ProcessManagement
Flow Unit
VariableFixed
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4Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Total Fixed Cost and Fixed Cost per Unit of Product
Total fixed cost (F)
Production volume (Q)
Fixed cost per unit of product(F/Q)
Production volume (Q)
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5Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Variable Cost per Unit and Total Variable Costs
Total Variable costs(VQ)
Variable costsPer unit of product(V)
Production volume (Q) Production volume (Q)
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6Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Tota
l Cos
ts in
$
(TC)
0Volume of Production and Sales in units (Q)
Total variable co
st (VQ)
Total Fixed cost (F)
Total cost =
F+VQ
Total Costs TC = F+VQ
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7Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Total Revenue It is assumed that the price of the product is fixed, and we sell whatever we produce. Total sales revenue depends on the production level. The higher the production, the higher the total sales revenue.
Total revenue (TR)
Production (and sales ) (Q)
Price per unit (P)
Production (and sales) (Q)
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8Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Tota
l Cos
ts o
r Re
venu
e in
$
(TC)
Volume of Production and Sales in units (Q)Tota
l Rev
enue
(PQ
)
Total cost =
F+VQ
Loss
Profit
Break-Even Point
TC=TR
F+VQ=PQ
QBEP = F/ (P-V)
Break-Even Computations
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9Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 1 $1000,000 total yearly fixed costs.$200 per unit variable costs$400 per unit sale priceTR = TC400Q= 1000,000+200Q(400-200)Q= 1000,000Q= 5000QBEP=5000If our market research indicates that the present demand is > 5,000, then this manufacturing system is economically feasible.
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10Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
BEA for Multiple Alternatives Break-even analysis for multiple alternatives:Such an analysis is implemented to compare cases such as
In general, when we move from a simple technology to an advanced technology; F V
A Simple technology An Intermediate technology An Advanced technology General purpose machines Multi-purpose machines Special purpose machines
Low F high V In between High F Low V
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11Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
BEA for Multiple Alternatives
Job-Shop
Batch
Flow-Shop
Q1 Q2
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12Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 2Management should decide whether to make a part at
house or outsource it. Outsource at $10 per unit.To make it at house; two processes: Advanced and
Intermediate(1) At house with intermediate process
Fixed Cost: $10,000/yearVariable Cost: $8 per unit
(2) At house with advanced process.Fixed Cost: $34,000/yearVariable Cost: $5 per unit
Prepare a table to summarize your recommendations.Demand RecommendationR ≤ ? ?? ≤ R ≤ ? ?? ≤ R ?
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13Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 2. BEA for Multiple Alternatives
Outsource
Manufacture I
Manufacture II
Q1 Q2
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14Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 2. Outsource vs. Manufacturing I
10Q10,000+8Q
10000+8Q=10Q2Q=10000
Q=50001000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
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15Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 2. Manufacturing I vs. Manufacturing II
34,000+5Q
10,000+8Q
10000+8Q=34000+5Q3Q=24000
Q=80001000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
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16Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 2. Executive Summary We summarize our recommendations as
Demand Recommendation
R ≤ 5000 Buy
5000 ≤ R ≤ 8000 Manufacture Alternative I
8000 ≤ R Manufacture Alternative II
On the boundary points, in practice, we need more information
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17Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Three alternatives
1) Job-ShopTotal Fixed Cost F = $10,000, Variable cost V = $10 per unit
2) Group-ShopTotal Fixed Cost F = $60,000, Variable cost V = $5 per unit
3) Flow-ShopTotal Fixed Cost F = $150,000, Variable cost V = $2 per unit
Example 3. BEA for Multiple Alternatives
Tell me what to do: In terms of the range of demand and the preferred choice…
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18Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 3. BEA for Multiple Alternatives
Job-Sh
op
Group-ShopFlow-Shop
Q1 Q2
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19Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 3. BEA, Job-Shop vs. Batch Processing
Job-Shop
Group-Shop
Q1
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20Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
F1=10000 V1=10F2=60000 V2=5
Q = 10000510
1000060000
Example 3. BEA, Job-Shop vs. Batch Processing
Break-even of 1 and 2
F1+ V1 Q = F2+ V2 Q
10000+10Q = 60000 + 5Q
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21Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 3. Batch Processing vs. Flow Shop
Group-Shop
Flow-Shop
Q2
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22Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
F2=60000 V2=5F3=150000 V3=2
Q = 300002560000150000
Example 3. Batch Processing vs. Flow Shop
Break-even of 2 and 3
F2+ V2 Q = F3+ V3 Q
60000 + 5Q = 150000+2Q
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23Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Demand Recommended Alternative
D 10000 Job-Shop
10000 D 30000 Group-Shop
30000 D Flow-Shop
We also need to know Price and Revenue!Suppose sales price is $8 per unit. Revise the table
Recommendations to Management and Marketing
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24Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Alternative 1 has a variable cost of $10>$8 will never use itAlternative 2 has a variable cost of $5<$8Alternative 3 has a variable cost of $2<$8As we saw before, Alternatives 2 and 3 break even at 30,000If demand is greater than 30,000, we use alternative 3.Now we can compute the break-even point of Alternative 2.Can you analyze the situation before solving the problem?If the break-even point for alternative 2 is X and is greater than 30,000, then we never use Alternative 2 since beyond a demand of 30,000, Alternative 3 is always preferred to Alternative 2.D < X Do nothingD> X Alternative 3Lets see where is the BEP of alternative 2F+VQ = PQ60,000+5Q=8Q Q= 20,000.
Recommendations to Management and Marketing
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25Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
D < 20,000 Do nothing20,000 < D < 30,000 Alternative 230,000 < D Alternative 3
If sales price was $6.5 instead of $8, thenF+VQ = PQ60,000+5Q=6.5QQ= 40,000.But for Q> 30,000 you never use Alternative 2, but Alternative 3Where Alternative 3 breaks even?150000+2Q = 6.5Q150000 = 4.5 Q Q = 33333D 33333 Do nothingD ≥ 30,000 Alternative 3
Recommendations to Management and Marketing
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26Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 4. BEP for the Three Global LocationsYou’re considering a new manufacturing plant in the sites at the suburb of one of the three candidate locations of:Bristol (England), Taranto (Italy), or Essen (Germany). Total Fixed costs (costs of human and capital resources) per year and variable costs (costs of inputs) per case of product is given below
Bristol (England) F = $300000, V = $18Essen (Germany): F = $600000, V = $12Taranto (Italy): F = $900000, V = $9
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27Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 3. BEA for Multiple Alternatives
Bristol
Essen
Taranto
Q1 Q2
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28Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 3. BEA for Multiple Alternatives
Bristol
Essen
Taranto
Q1 Q2
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29Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 4. BEP for the Three Global Locations1. At what level of demand a site at Bristol suburb is preferred?Bristol Total Costs = 300000+18QEssen Total Costs = 600000+12Q300000+18Q = 600000+12Q6Q = 300,000Q = 50,0002. At what level of demand is a site at Essen suburb preferred?Essen Total Costs = 600000+12QTaranto Total Costs = 900000+9Q600000+12Q = 900000+9Q 3Q = 300,000Q = 100,0000Essen is preferred for 100,000≥ Q ≥ 50,000
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30Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 3. BEA for Multiple Alternatives
Bristol
Essen
Taranto
50000 100000
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31Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 4. BEP for the Three Global Locations3. At what level of demand a site at Taranto suburb is preferred?More than 100,0004. Suppose sales price is equal to the average of the variable costs at Bristol and Essen. At what level of demand is a site at Bristol suburb preferred?
Never6. Given the same assumption as (4). At what level of demand a site at Essen suburb is preferred?P = (18+12)/2 = 15Total Essen cost = 600,000 + 12QPQ = F + VQ15Q = 600,000 + 12Q3Q = 600,000 Q = 200,000Never. Why???
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32Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 5. BEP for the Three Global LocationsWhyAt Q = 100,000 Taranto dominates Essen
5. Given the same assumption as (4). At what level of demand is a site at Taranto suburb preferred?
P = (18+12)/2 = 15Taranto Total cost = 900,000 + 9QPQ = F + VQ15Q = 900,000 + 9Q6Q = 900,000 Q = 150,000P =15D ≤ 150000 No WhereD ≥ 150,000 Taranto
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33Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 5. BEP for the Three Global Locations7. Suppose sales price is $20. At what level of demand a site at Essen suburb is preferred?
Essen Total cost = 600,000 + 12Q20Q = 600,000+12QQ = 75000From 75000 to ??At what level of demand a site at Essen is preferred?At 100,000 Essen and Taranto Break Even – After that Taranto denominatesFrom 75,000 to 100,000
P= 2075,000 ≤ D ≤ 100000 EssenD ≥ 100,000 Taranto
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34Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Financial Throughput and Fixed Operating CostsWe define financial throughput as the rate at
which the enterprise generates money. By selling one unit of product we generate P dollars, at the same time we incur V dollars pure variable cost. Pure variable cost is the cost directly related to the production of one additional unit - such as raw material. It does not include sunk costs such as salary, rent, and depreciation. Since we produce and sell Q units per unit of time. The financial throughput is Q(P-V).
Fixed Operating Expenses (F) include all costs not directly related to production of one additional unit. That includes costs such as human and capital resources.
Throughput Profit Multiplier = % Changes in Profit divided by % Changes in Throughput
1% change in the throughput leads to TPM% change in the profit
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35Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Financial Throughput and Fixed Operating CostsSuppose fixed cost F = $180,000 per month. Sales price
per unit P = 22, and variable cost per unit V = 2. In July, the process throughput was 10,000 units. A process improvement increased throughput in August by 2% to 10,200 units without any increase in the fixed cost. Compute throughput profit multiplier.
July: Financial Throughput = 10000(22-2) = 200000Fixed cost F = 180,000 Profit = 200000-180000 = $20,000In August throughput increased by 2% to 10200August: Financial Throughput of the additional 200 units
= 200(22-2) = 4,000We have already covered our fixed costs, the $4000
directly goes to profit.
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36Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Throughput Profit Multiplier (TPM)% Change in Throughput = 2%% change in profit = 4000/20000 = 20%Throughput Profit Multiplier (TPM) = 20%/2% =
101% throughput improvement 10% profit improvement
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37Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
A Viable Vision – Eliyahu GoldrattA Viable Vision (Goldratt): What if we decide to have
todays total revenue as tomorrows total profit. In our example, Financial Throughput in July was Q1(P-V)
= 10,000(22-2). In order to have your profit equal this amount we need to produce Q2 units such that:
Q2(P-V) – F = Q1(P)Q2(20) -180,000 = 10,000(22)Q2(20) = 40,000Q2 = 20,000In order to have your todays total revenue as tomorrows
total profit. We only need to double our throughput. Our sales, our current revenue becomes our tomorrows profit.
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38Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
A manager has the option of purchasing 1, 2 or 3 machines.The capacity of each machine is 300 units.
Fixed costs are as follows:
Number of Machines Fixed cost Total Capacity 1 $9,600 1-300 2 $15,000 301-600 3 $20,000 601-900
Variable cost is $10 per unit, and the sales price of product is $40 per unit.
Tell management what to do!
Example 5
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39Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Example 5. BEP RecommendationsPrepare an executive summary similar the following:
R<= ? ??<R<=? ?R>? ?
Now it is up to the Marketing Department to provide an Executive Summary regarding the demand.
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40Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
BEP: One Machine
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
9600+10Q
40Q
320
9600 + 10Q = 40Q9600= 30Q
The beak-even point for 1 machine is 320But one machine can not produce more than 300Demand <= 300 No ProductionOtherwise Consider two machines
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41Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
BEP: Two Machine
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
15000+10Q 40Q
500
15000 + 10Q = 40Q15000= 30Q
The beak-even point for 2 machine is 500Demand <= 500 No ProductionOtherwise Two machines and consider 3 machines
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42Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
BEP: Three Machine
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
20000+10Q
40Q
667
20000 + 10Q = 40Q20000= 30Q
The beak-even point for 3 machine is 667Demand <= 667 Produce up to 600 using 2 machineOtherwise 3 machines
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43Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
BEP for the Three Alternatives and RecommendationsPrepare an executive summary similar the following:
R<= 500 Do nothing500 <R<=667 Buy two machines and produce 500< Q<= 600Q>667 Buy three machines and produce 667<R<=900
Now it is up to the Marketing Department to provide an Executive Summary regarding the demand.
Please Think again!.We have made a mistake.
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44Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
BEP: Two Machine- Revisited
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
15000+10Q 40Q
600
TC = 15000 + 10(600) TC = 21000 TR = 40(600) = 24000Profit = 24000-21000 = 3000
}You do not switch to 3 machines unless you make 3000 profit
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45Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
From Wrong to Right Recommendations Q<= 500 Do-Nothing500<Q<=667 Buy two machines and produce 500<Q<= 600Q>667 Buy three machines and produce 667<Q<=900
20000 + 10Q = 40Q20000= 30Q Q = 667
20000 + 10Q +3000= 40Q23000= 30Q Q = 767
At Q = 667 you make 0 profit with 3 machines
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46Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Executive SummaryQ<= 500 Do-Nothing
500<Q<=767 Buy two machines and produce 500<Q<= 600
Q>767 Buy three machines and produce 767<Q<=900
Now it is to Marketing Department to provide executive summary regarding the demand
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47Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
You are the production manager and are given the option to purchase either 1, 2 or 3 machines. Each machine has a capacity of 500 units. Fixed costs are as follows:
Number of Machines Fixed cost Total Capacity 1 $19,200 1- 500 2 $30,000 501-1000 3 $40,000 1001-1500
Variable cost is $35 per unit, and the sales price of product is $69 per unit.
Determine the best option!
Example 5- At Your Own Will
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48Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
BEP for the Three Alternatives and Recommendations
Prepare an executive summary similar the following:
R<= ? ??<R<=? ?R>? ?
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49Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Variable Cost Per Unit is Not Fixed – Diminishing Marginal Return
Total Variable costs(VQ)
Production volume (Q)
Output
Input
Output
Input
Variable costsPer unit of product(V)
Production volume (Q)
Variable costsPer unit of product(V)
Production volume (Q)
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50Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis LO4
Long-RunATC
Aver
age
Tota
l Cos
ts ATC-1
ATC-2ATC-3 ATC-4
ATC-5
Output
7-50
Economy of Scale- Dis-economy of Scale
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51Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis LO2
IncreasingMarginalReturns
DiminishingMarginalReturns
NegativeMarginalReturns
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
10
20
30To
tal P
rodu
ctio
n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
20
10
Mar
gina
l and
Av
erag
e Pr
oduc
tion
7-51
Note on the Basic MEP Model
MP
AP
TP
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52Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
A Viable Vision – Eliyahu GoldratEconomies of scale
Labor specializationManagerial specializationEfficient capital-------------
Diseconomies of scaleControl and coordination problemsCommunication problemsWorker alienationShirkingDinosaur Effect
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53Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Stop Here
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54Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
Back to Example1 - Simulation $1000,000 average total yearly fixed costs ($800,000-$1,200,000).$200 average per unit variable costs ($180-$220).$400 average per unit sale price ($350-$450)Sales 4000-6000.
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55Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis
180 350 4000220 450 6000
Variable Cost Sales Price Sales Total Cost Total Revenue Profit Max 772024 Min -467941 Range 1239965 4194304 K 22 TRUE Width 56365185 448 4457 1780941 1996736 215795 CumulativeLoss 28182.5207 405 4071 1818543 1648755 -169788 1 -467941 -439759 -467941 to -439758.5 2 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.3363215 426 4812 2008625 2049912 41287 2 -439759 -411576 -439758.5 to -411576 2 0.0002 0.0004 0.0002 Probability of Loss is: 0.3363183 400 4183 1668455 1673200 4745 3 -411576 -383394 -411576 to -383393.5 4 0.0004 0.0008 0.0004188 427 5200 1783752 2220400 436648 4 -383394 -355211 -383393.5 to -355211 20 0.002 0.0028 0.002205 434 5386 2048308 2337524 289216 5 -355211 -327029 -355211 to -327028.5 36 0.0036 0.0064 0.0036208 439 4594 1817549 2016766 199217 6 -327029 -298846 -327028.5 to -298846 58 0.0058 0.0122 0.0058188 422 5541 1941992 2338302 396310 7 -298846 -270664 -298846 to -270663.5 102 0.0102 0.0224 0.0102209 387 4155 1706063 1607985 -98078 8 -270664 -242481 -270663.5 to -242481 137 0.0137 0.0361 0.0137182 442 4327 1747484 1912534 165050 9 -242481 -214299 -242481 to -214298.5 205 0.0205 0.0566 0.0205220 423 4229 1883842 1788867 -94975 10 -214299 -186116 -214298.5 to -186116 227 0.0227 0.0793 0.0227213 369 4401 1890272 1623969 -266303 11 -186116 -157934 -186116 to -157933.5 266 0.0266 0.1059 0.0266215 382 5611 2069902 2143402 73500 12 -157934 -129751 -157933.5 to -129751 316 0.0316 0.1375 0.0316194 447 5233 1973607 2339151 365544 13 -129751 -101569 -129751 to -101568.5 344 0.0344 0.1719 0.0344180 438 4093 1542329 1792734 250405 14 -101569 -73386 -101568.5 to -73386 429 0.0429 0.2148 0.0429188 374 4134 1647911 1546116 -101795 15 -73386 -45203.5 -73386 to -45203.5 444 0.0444 0.2592 0.0444180 352 4051 1605308 1425952 -179356 16 -45203.5 -17021 -45203.5 to -17021 484 0.0484 0.3076 0.0484220 410 5779 2170288 2369390 199102 17 -17021 11161.5 -17021 to 11161.5 491 0.0491 0.3567206 435 5017 1899201 2182395 283194 18 11161.5 39344 11161.5 to 39344 512 0.0512 0.4079208 350 5034 1959326 1761900 -197426 19 39344 67526.5 39344 to 67526.5 515 0.0515 0.4594
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56Ardavan Asef-Vaziri March, 2015 Break-Even Analysis