Canadian Aviation: By the NumbersAirports Canada 2013

11 April 2013

Dr. Mike TrethewayInterVISTAS Consulting Chief Strategy Officer, Chief Economist

PassengersMovements

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Time Series of Canada Air Passenger Traffic

Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada

2

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Canada Air Passenger Traffic

Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada

3

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Canada Air Passenger Traffic

Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada

4

28% 40%

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Time Series ofUS Air Passenger Traffic

Source:1960-2006 ATA , 2007-2012 BTS

5

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US vs Canada Pax Traffic1990-2012

6

Source: InterVISTAS Calculations with data from: Canada-Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics CanadaUS- 1960-2006 ATA , 2007-2012 BTS .

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Commercial Aircraft Movements

Source: Aviation in Canada (1980-1990) and Table 401-0009, Statistics Canada.

7

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Total GA Movements for Canada

8

Source: Statistics Canada, Table 401-007, 401-0015 and 401-0021.

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Canadian Air Cargo

9

No accurate data

Fares, Load Factors, etc.

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Source: Statistics Canada Average Fare data, Cat. 51 -004-Xp = preliminaryMajor Air Carriers include Air Canada (mainline & AC Jazz), WestJet, Air Transat and Canada 3000

Average Fare: CanadaNominal: Not Adjusted for Inflation

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Sources: Statistics Canada Average Fare data, Cat. 51 -004-XStatistics Canada Consumer Price Index

p = preliminary air fare dataMajor Air Carriers include Air Canada (mainline & AC Jazz), WestJet, Air Transat and Canada 3000

Real Average Fare: Canada

12

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Load Factor- Canada

Source: Aviation in Canada, Statistics Canada. Transport Canada

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Passengers per Aircraft- Canada1980-2011

14

Source: InterVISTAS Calculations with data from: Aviation in Canada (1980-1990) and Table 401-0009, Statistics Canadaand Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada

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Annual Turboprop + Regional Jet Percentages

79% 72% 74% 75%

Scheduled Flight Frequency: Domestic Canada

15

Source: Official Airline Guide Schedule Data, full year data for 1998, 2002, 2007, and 2012.

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Annual Turboprop + Regional Jet Percentages

49% 37% 42% 50%

Scheduled Seat Capacity: Domestic Canada

16

Source: Official Airline Guide Schedule Data, full year data for 1998, 2002, 2007, and 2012.

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Source: Transport Canada Registered Commercial Aircraft database

Commercial Aircraft: Canada

17

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Number of Employees

Source: 1980-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada2006-2011- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X

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Financial

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Canadian Air Carrier Total Revenue and Expenses

Source: Statistics Canada, 51-004-X

20

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Return on Assets for Canadian Air Carriers

Source: Statistics Canada, 1980-1985- Aviation in Canada. 2005-2011, 51-004-X.

21

AirportsSecurity

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Total Capital Investmentsby Canadian Airports

Note: Montreal includes both Trudeau and Mirabel AirportsSource: Airport Annual Reports.

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$15b$9b since 2004

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Rents Paid to Transport Canada by Canadian Airports

Source: Transport Canada Annual Reports.

24

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Air Travellers’ Security Charge & Expenditure

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Source: CATSA Annual Reports and Public Accounts of Canada, Annual Financial Review

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

70020

03

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Millio

n $

Revenue vs. Op Expense

ATSC rev

CATSA op exp

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Aviation Security Since 2003

• ATSC Revenues: $4.3b• CATSA Op Exp: $4.2b• CATSA Investment: $0.9b

• First 2 years:• Revenue $830mn

Expenses $410mn ($616mn)• Is aviation security merely a benefit to pax?

Or is it national security, with benefits to Canada?

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Fuel

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Fuel Cost per Litrefor Canadian Air Carriers

Source: 1980-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada2006-2011- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X

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Fuel Litres per RPK

Source: 1970-1990- Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada 2006-2011- Statistics Canada, 51-004-X. Transport Canada

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Oil Price Consensus Forecast

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•Its not down•Its not back to $145

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If History Repeats the Swing….Oil Price with Full Historical Range

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Upper range

Base price forecastLower range

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Note the scale

Safety

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Accidents for Canadian Commercial Aircraft

Source: 2001-2011 Statistics Canada, 51-004-X. Transportation Safety Board of Canada1970-1990 Statistics Canada, Aviation in Canada

33

Economic Update

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Canada Real GDP Growth

35

Sources: Historical and Forecast Data from International Monetary Fund, World Economic Database, October 2012.

Ann

ualiz

ed Y

-O-Y

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Historical Data

Forecast Data

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US Real GDP Growth - Forecast

Source: 2007-2012 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis2013-2017 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011

Forecast DataA

nnua

lized

Y-O

-Y G

row

th R

ate

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Canada Real GDP (Historical)

37Sources: Historical Canada GDP (1961 to 2012) – Statistics Canada.

Recessions are wiggles in a steadily growing economy

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Time Series of Canada Air Passenger Traffic

Source: Air Carrier Traffic at Canadian Airports. Statistics Canada

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Thank You

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