can we know the future? by john wilkins
TRANSCRIPT
Can we know the future?John S Wilkins
–Yogi Berra
“Prediction is hard, especially about the future.”
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time…
Once upon a time…
Why is the future so hard to predict?
Why is the future so hard to predict?
History is chaotic
Why is the future so hard to predict?
History is chaotic
Physics is indeterminate
Why is the future so hard to predict?
History is chaotic
Physics is indeterminate
Biology is contingent
Why is the future so hard to predict?
History is chaotic
Physics is indeterminate
Biology is contingent
Humans are complex
Why is the future so hard to predict?
History is chaotic
Physics is indeterminate
Biology is contingent
Humans are complex
We do not have all the facts
History is chaotic
History is chaotic
By “history” I mean the changes in the world state over time
History is chaotic
By “history” I mean the changes in the world state over time
A simple system can become complex
History is chaotic
By “history” I mean the changes in the world state over time
A simple system can become complex
A complex system can become stable and simple
On average
On average
Single objects have unpredictable paths
On average
Single objects have unpredictable paths
Ensembles of objects can be more easily predicted
On average
Single objects have unpredictable paths
Ensembles of objects can be more easily predicted
The “Mule” Effect (Isaac Asimov, Foundation series)
History has layers
History has layers
Physics – what is possible
History has layers
Physics – what is possible
Biology – what is likely
History has layers
Physics – what is possible
Biology – what is likely
Society – what is permitted
History has layers
Physics – what is possible
Biology – what is likely
Society – what is permitted
Technology – what is chosen
Physics is indeterminate
Physics is indeterminate
We cannot predict very far even with physics
Physics is indeterminate
We cannot predict very far even with physics
Complex systems behave chaotically
Physics is indeterminate
We cannot predict very far even with physics
Complex systems behave chaotically
We do not have all the information
Physics is indeterminate
We cannot predict very far even with physics
Complex systems behave chaotically
We do not have all the information
Anyway, quantum
Biology is contingent
Biology is contingent
Evolution is not linear
Biology is contingent
Evolution is not linear
What can evolve need not
Biology is contingent
Evolution is not linear
What can evolve need not
Constraints on what can evolve exist, but can be changed
Biology is contingent
Evolution is not linear
What can evolve need not
Constraints on what can evolve exist, but can be changed
Chance and adaptation
Humans are complex
Humans are complex
Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor
Humans are complex
Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor
The anti-nuclear movement
Humans are complex
Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor
The anti-nuclear movement
Social progressivism and conservationism
Humans are complex
Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor
The anti-nuclear movement
Social progressivism and conservationism
Result: Global warming
Technology’s hope
Technology’s hope
Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops
Technology’s hope
Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops
The failure of Ehrlich’s predictions – “100s of millions will die by 1980”
Technology’s hope
Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops
The failure of Ehrlich’s predictions – “100s of millions will die by 1980”
Ehrlich was right in his wrongness
Technology’s hope
Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops
The failure of Ehrlich’s predictions – “100s of millions will die by 1980”
Ehrlich was right in his wrongness
Now we have a global population of 7 billion, and oil has peaked
We don’t know what we don’t know
We don’t know what we don’t know
How can we predict the unpredictable?
We don’t know what we don’t know
How can we predict the unpredictable?
It isn’t through wish fulfilment (ad hoc thinking)
We don’t know what we don’t know
How can we predict the unpredictable?
It isn’t through wish fulfilment (ad hoc thinking)
If the future is uncertain, our solutions to it will not be certain until they either fail or succeed (post hoc thinking)
Why don’t we know?
Why don’t we know?
Why don’t we know?
We know the world more or less at present
Why don’t we know?
We know the world more or less at present
However, we have degrees of uncertainty (distance, information flow)
Why don’t we know?
We know the world more or less at present
However, we have degrees of uncertainty (distance, information flow)
Information is lost from the present and the past
Why don’t we know?
We know the world more or less at present
However, we have degrees of uncertainty (distance, information flow)
Information is lost from the present and the past
We have insufficient information to predict the future
I’m sorry Dave. I’m afraid I don’t know that
What do we do?
What do we do?
Don’t despair
What do we do?
Don’t despair
Don’t be over optimistic
What do we do?
Don’t despair
Don’t be over optimistic
Don’t think good intentions equal good outcomes
Thank you for listening to a professional pessimist