can south asia end poverty in a generation? 1 can south asia end poverty in a generation?

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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?

Can South Asia end povertyin a generation?

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GDP growth in South Asia has been strong and accelerating

Source: World Development Indicators

3


Rapid growth is reducing poverty, but inequality is increasing

Source: Narayan, Ambar, et. al. 2006. “The challenge of promoting equality and inclusion in South Asian countries.” mimeo, World Bank: Washington DC.

4


Regional inequality in Indiais growing

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

- 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000

P er capita income in 1980/81

HYRJ

P J

BH

UP

MP

1980s

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

- 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000

Per capita income in 1990/91

P J

HYRJ

MP

UP

BH

1990s and 2000s

2.5%

6.5%

Land-locked states

Coastal states

5


Big gaps between enrolment and completion in primary education

Source: Schweitzer, Julian. 2006. “Human development in South Asia.” mimeo, World Bank: Washington, DC.

6


Table 6: Primary Education Learning Outcomes by Province, 2003

7


Bangladesh’s institutional weaknesses in governance

Source: Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi (2005).

8


24x7 water: A pipe dream?

Source: Data collected from the water boards or utilities

Liters per capita per day vs. hours of supply/dayGoa

Chandigarh

Mumbai

Delhi

Patna

Ludhiana

Jodhpur

Dasuya

Dera Bassi

Paris

Jaipur

Ahmedabad

Bikaner

Bangalore

Gurdaspur

Bathinda

Bharatpur

Udaipur

Chennai 3280

105106

108123

133145

149

173184

190220

222223

240332

341

1.5 2.5 1.5

8 10 2.5 1.5

2 3

8 10 2.5 10 10

4 5

10

8

24150

9


Politics, patronage, & network services

POLITICIANS

EMPLOYEESUTILITY

COMPANY

CONNECTEDPOPULATION

Operational subsidiesAppointment of directors

Political favours

Artificiallydepressed

tariffs

Poorquality of

service

Over-staffing

UNCONNECTEDPOPULATION

High prices

CONTRACTORS

Untendered contracts

11


Contribution of Key Sectors to the Overall GDP Growth Rate

0.1%

0.2%

0.4% 0.4%

0.7% 0.8%

1.1%1.1%

0.3%

0.4% 0.4%

0.6%

1.1%1.1%

0.6%

0.8%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

Communication Construction Banking &insurance

Real estate, &businessservices

Trade, hotels &restaurant

Community,social& personal

services

Agriculture Manufacturing

1980s

P ost-1990

In India, 100 million farmers contribute as much to GDP growth as 1 million business professionals

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Employment protection in South Asia is among the most rigid

worldwide

Source: Doing Business 2006. World Bank: Washington, DC.

13


Stipends yield big gains for Bangladesh secondary education

Source: World Bank. 2006. Bangladesh: Secondary Education Development Support Credit II. World Bank: Washington, DC.

14


Making the most of a second decade of rapid growth

• As it ends its first decade of rapid growth, South Asia is at a crossroads

• A second decade of rapid growth is not guaranteed

• South Asians can be complacent and continue to grow at 5-6 percent and make slow progress on inequality, human development, and weak governance

• Or they can leverage their recent growth, build on success and end mass poverty in a generation

can south asia end poverty in a generation? 1 can south asia end poverty in a generation?

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