Can Mars Really Be Terraformed? Posted On March 27, 2015 | Add Comment |

Ok think about Earth for a second. Inside the core there is lots of Uranium and Thorium which have long half lives and help keep the center of the Earth hot. All the metallic churning leads to a super wonderful magnetic field that protects the Earth from nasty radiation and solar winds that would otherwise blow away our atmosphere.

Think about the nice breathable air we enjoy with a just perfect surface pressure of 1000 millibars. Ponder the abundance of water and the nice balmy temperatures.

OK now lets think about Mars. Pretty much everything just mentioned is missing on Mars. That makes terraforming an extremely difficult proposition. Lets review.

 

THE DEAL BREAKER – NO MAGNETOSPHERE

The lack of a magnetosphere is really really bad on two fronts. First of all, there is the radiation. Without magnetic poles, the stuff just pours in, both from the sun and from space. This means that without localized protection (like an underground chamber, you are a walking dead man.)

Secondly, you have the problem of not only having no atmosphere now, you have the problem of the old one having been lost to space … blown away by the solar winds that just tear constantly at anything that tries to get in the atmosphere. Thus when you try to create an atmosphere, you probably won’t have much to work with as the original atmospheric gases are long gone. They are not in the soil. They are not hiding underground. They are gone like a million yesterdays. Gathering enough gas molecules to increase the atmospheric pressure by a factor of 100 … not happening.

 

MORE BAD NEWS – THE TEMPERATURE

Yes we are taking cold, really really nasty cold. Being on Mars during the summer months would be like being on ANTARTICA except there is no snow and Mars is colder. Temperatures on

Mars range from a low of minus 100 F to a high of 70 F. That’s in summer … at the equator. At the poles, temperatures can get down to minus 195 F.   There are no fossil fuels. All this means you will need electric heat and lots of it. And no, solar panels won’t cut it as anything other than a supplemental source of energy. The reason for this is that downtime would be deadly. No electricity and you get deadly cold. So nasty things like a dust storm or nightfall and you die. However this problem is solvable with LFTR nuclear reactors.

In a heavily insulated underground chamber, with two Thorium nuclear reactors (which don’t need water), you could probably have enough redundancy to eliminate the risk of a power outage. But I would really double check my calculations and engineering. Failure of the electrical systems to operate 100% of the time would be devastating. On Mars, power is going to mean life.

 

MORE BAD NEWS – SUPER LOW GRAVITY

There would seem to be nothing that can be done to increase the gravity of Mars (short of colliding say Ceres into the planet). Thus, we will quickly learn weather people can survive at 38% gravity for the long term. Over time, Martians would adapt genetically perhaps, but this is a major area of uncertainty for the early colonists. The wizard guesses that this problem will be able to be solved in the short run (with supplemental local gravity enhancers) and in the long term (with biological modified people.)

 

MORE BAD NEWS – AIR PRESSURE AND AIR CONTENT

Mars currently has about 1% of the atmospheric pressure of Earth. That means without an asteroid collision of methane or nitrogen or CO2, the planet will probably never have an atmosphere dense enough to allow human lungs to breath without a pressure system. Plus our atmosphere on Earth is roughly 70% nitrogen. This inactive gas is extremely valuable as it provides pressure without any chemical interactions with the body. Getting an adequate volume of inert gases doesn’t seem possible given what we know about the existing atmosphere and soil.

 

IS THERE HOPE?

Yes it should be possible to create an underground world (or surface world that is heavily insulated from radiation) that could sustain life. Water and air will be able to be created in enough volume to fill a sealed chamber and with adequate containment designs, the system could be pressurized to allow for free range (underground) humans. This is not “terraforming” as the process is commonly thought of however. But life could exist on Mars. The wizard predicts that this is how life will operate there … sealed in a chamber with just a few trips to the outside. Can you say cabin fever. But with the potential for underground farms and forests, lakes and rivers,

one can imagine a place that is attractive and appealing. The key to such a world would be energy and that almost certainly means thorium reactors. Until such reactors are ready to be easily shipped, life on Mars will be extremely difficult. Terraforming on the other hand will be essentially impossible.

For a somewhat more optimistic view concerning terraforming Mars see the video below, Note carefully the clever explanation for getting a magnetosphere back on Mars. (OK they have no ideas whatsoever.) Great channel though.

IS THERE A BETTER WAY?

Yes, there is a better way and that is to terraform the people and not try to terraform the planet (the wizard has made this argument previously – see blog post HERE). Creatures built using nanobot technology with powerful batteries, recharged from energy sources that are extremely reliable should allow for cities and manufacturing centers to be built on the surface. “True Martians” built for the planet would be impervious to radiation, not need air or water and would be unaffected by the cold and the dust. The low gravity and limited atmospheric pressure might actually be positives for such creatures.

Scanning your brain and turning you into software that can be instantiated into a nanobot body would really be the way to see Mars. That would seem to be the future for colonizing the red planet.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Wizard used to believe deeply that terraforming Mars was possible and it was just a matter of time before the technology to change Red Mars into Green Mars would exist. (See above for how easy the classical model for terraforming Mars was supposed to be.)

Now however, the Wizard  is pretty sure that the lack of knowledge about how to create a magnetosphere is the real deal breaker for making Mars livable. It may turn out that life on Venus (living high above the planet at a perfect 1000 millibars of pressure) might actually be just as doable as living on Mars (see below for vision of life in the clouds of Venus). In any event, it seems likely that Man, or his manufactured descendants, will someday be living on both worlds. To your humble Wizard, it seems unlikely that either planet will ever resemble Earth however.

NEXT UP: Another look at living “on” Venus

 

 

Posted under Life Beyond Earth,Miscellany,Predictions and Possibilities

P=NP and the Traveling Salesmen Posted On March 12, 2015 | Add Comment |

 

One of the seven Millennium math problems for which you can earn a cool million dollars for proving or dis-proving the problem is P=NP. These terms refer to the complexity of math problems. In its most simple terms, P is the set of all problems that are easy and that can be solved in polynomial time (a term that is based on the inputs, but means “fairly quickly”.) NP on the other hand, is the set of problems that are hard and cannot be solved in polynomial time.

One way to think of the problem is a jigsaw puzzle. Solving it might be hard (although not actually an NP problem), but checking that it was done correctly might only require a glance (a “P” or easy problem.) In the P/NP world, solving certain problems are hard, while checking them is frequently easy.

 

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF P=NP

If P=NP, then the world would be fundamentally transformed. All mathematical proofs would be trivial. Cryptology which is crucial for the everyday (like banking and your amazon shipments,) as well as for national security, would simply fade away as a tool.

Every branch of science would be also effected. In biology, the problems of protein folding would be easy. In physics, problems about the nature of the multiverse, might likewise seem trivial.

P=NP asks is it possible that solving a problem is as easy as checking a problem. If it could be proved that such is the case, it would have a profound impact on computer science, encryption and every branch of human discovery. No problem would be beyond solution. Interestingly, over

time, the pool of high end math types has dropped the probability that a solution will be found from 20% to less than 10%. The smart money is now on proving P does not equal NP.

In the video below we learn about the taxonomy of Math Complexity. It is a great overview of the P vs NP world.

 

A SAMPLE PROBLEM

There are many samples of complex problems and one of the most famous is the Traveling Salesman problem whereby a salesman must travel a circuit visiting every city only once and returning to his home city while traveling the least possible number of miles. The problem is simple when there are just a few cities, but when the number is raised to say a thousand, the permutations become ridiculous and the problem becomes virtually unsolvable. It’s like playing chess … you can not evaluate every possible move as there are more possible moves than there are atoms in the universe. An example that is easier to understand is Sudoku. You can easily check whether a solution is valid, but solving the puzzle is much harder. But what if the same effort that went into checking the problem could solve the problem? That would be a massive breakthrough.

In the wizards opinion, perhaps quantum computing could solve some of the NP problems in the same order of magnitude of time (a requirement for any P=NP proof) as it takes to check a problem. Just 500 qubits, for example, would allow you to do 2^500 calculations in a single step. This represents a sum larger than all the atoms in the universe. If you could enter all possible Sudoku solutions or all possible chess moves at once, then perhaps a solution could be nearly instantaneous. No one really knows what is possible with this new technology. If there is to be a practical break though in the P=NP arena, it will almost certainly come from quantum computing.

I note that conventional wisdom is that QC will only be able to solve a small set of NP problems. (see video above.) Not sure that conventional wisdom will turn out to be right however.

 

The Traveling Salesmen Movie

For a fun movie for science geeks, try to find The Traveling Salesman (available on Amazon) which is about what happens to four math geniuses who solve the P=NP dilemma. Let us just say the government is keenly interested in their work. See the preview below:

The wizard gives it 5 stars for science geekery, but only 1 star for drama and action. So punk you have to ask yourself a question … are you a true geek or are you just another whinny mama’s boy that likes to watch things blow up? Well are you punk?

 

So Does P=NP?

With the yes side guess by experts now down to only 9%, it looks like the best chance for a proof may lie in the proof that the two are not the same and can never share the same space in a Venn diagram of mathematical complexity. Based on no evidence except a general belief that utilizing the computing power of multiple universes is going to be really useful, I belief that someday the solution to problems will exist in the same time approximation as the checking of a problem. Here is how really deep thinkers holding my point of view analyze this problem (Ok maybe they are on the other side.)

 

What could you do with a P=NP Computer?

For starters, If only P were truly equal to NP, then we could use the multi-verse computer to prove P=NP and thus win a million dollars. (In fact we could solve all the millennium challenges and win the remaining six million dollars.) Alas this a chicken and egg problem. BUT once you had such a device, you could crack every code, solve every problem in linear programming including any traveling salesman problem. You could solve any mystery in math, chemistry, information storage, and physics including how it will all end. Think about it, every mathematical conundrum solved just by asking.

Such a know everything computer could be asked about the problem of entropy ending the universe. One can imagine the computer swirling and whirring, seeking an answer to the unknowable. Over and over the question would be asked “How can we reverse entropy,” until finally, as the universe is about to go into it’s final phase of permanent stasis, the last of the NP problems finally submits to man’s insistence and the power of the multi-verse computer.

Imagine the scene as the last of the priests of the high tech world whispers the question one final time “How can we stop entropy from ending the universe?” Lights blink and the computer

ponders this most severe of the NP problems before it finally says in a perfect Stephen Hawking voice  …

 “LET THERE BE LIGHT”

 

Note: The ending above, of course, is from Isaac Asimov’s famous short story The Last Question (A definite must read.)

 

Next Up: Why Terraforming Mars May Be Impossible (Oh Nooo.)

Posted under Miscellany,Mysteries and Puzzles ,Predictions and Possibilities

Proof That The Sum of All Positive Integers is -1/12 Posted On February 18, 2015 | Add Comment |

 

 

Ok NAAites, its been awhile since we explored the new and amazing branch of mathematics, so the next couple of posts will be on that topic. Previously, we demonstrated that 1=0 (by dubious means – see  Proof that Aliens Don’t Exist,) but today we are going to prove that the sum of all positive numbers is -1/12. While this seems like a crazy idea involving mushrooms of dubious origins, there are strong reasons to believe that there is another way of looking at this problem (besides the obvious answer of infinity.) In fact, we find this concept to be well documented in string theory and quantum physics.

Leonhard Euler was the first to demonstrate that the sum of positive numbers equaled -1/12. He was a bit of an outlaw at the time, but now is considered a pioneer of modern mathematical analysis. This was later modified to include similarly strange results for complex numbers with Riemann’s Zeta hypotheses and I can recommend this video for those of you wanting to learn about one of the six remaining unsolved mysteries of math for which there is a very large reward for its proof or disproof.

 

THE PROOF THAT THE SUM OF ALL POSITIVE INTEGARS IS NEGATIVE

OK on with the proof that the sum of all positive integers is a negative number. Yes even the dark elves are waiting breathlessly hoping I will fail completely and with maximum humiliation … but alas the proof is fairly simple.

Step 1 – Let us compute the value of C1 where C1 = 1-1+1-1+1 …

You can quickly see that the value depends on whether you stop on an even or odd position in the equation. If it is odd, the value is 1. If it is even the value is zero. Averaging the two you get ½. This can be shown in greater detail in any number of ways but here is a proof for the skeptical among you.

 

Step 2 – Let us compute the value of 2 times C2 where C2 = 1-2+3-4+5-6 …

One way to look at this is to add the two together. Thus you get:

1-2+3-4+5-6 ETC

1-2+3-4+5-6 ETC

Having shifted the second number over one you get 1-1+1-1+1 etc. Look familiar? It is (see step 1.) It is C1 which has a value of ½.

Thus 2C2 = 1/2 and  C2 =  1/4

 

Step 3 – Finally let us create an equation C = 1+2+3+4+5 …

Step 4 – Subtract C2 from C

You get:   C-C2= 1+2+3+4+5 …

-(1-2+3-4+5 …)

which yields

C-C2 =  4+8+12 ….

Factor Out 4 yields

C-C2 = 4(1+2+3+4 …)

 

 

Step 5 – Substitute C Into The Right Side and 1/4 Into the Left Side for C2

You get C-1/4=4C    or -3C = 1/4    or   C=-1/12

 

Q.E.D.

 

For an actual demonstration of the math by actual mathematicians, see the video below:

 

CAN THIS REALLY BE TRUE?

The answer to this is it depends. For purposes of string theory and quantum physics it is apparently creditable and useful. As mentioned, such famous mathematicians as Euler and Riemann both got this result. On the other hand, this violates some principles of math involving what you can do with divergent series. For a criticism of the above video, watch below:

 

SUMMARY

I found this little nugget while researching Riemann’s Hypotheses, which is one of the seven millennium math challenges that were posted in 2000 with an award of one million dollars each. One has already been solved and some think this may be solved or disproved one day as well. The fact that the sum of all positive numbers might actually be equal to -1/12 is mind blowing. In fact, it is truly new and amazing.

 

NEXT UP – The Greatest Challenge in Computer Science: P=NP

 

Posted under Miscellany,Mysteries and Puzzles ,Predictions and Possibilities

Science vs. Religion – A New Paradigm Posted On January 28, 2015 | Add Comment |

In the history of man, there has been an age old struggle between science and religion. Religion relied on articles of faith and demanded its followers accept the tenants of their religion or be branded as heretics. Religions recruited new converts with zealous intensity. Scientists touted the scientific method as the way forward, whereby we could expand our knowledge of the universe and nature by repeatable experiments which involved hypothesis testing to establish validation. NAA submits, that at least in part, these roles have been reversed and this post shall attempt to lay out the case against science in a couple of key areas where science has forgotten the importance of the scientific method and instead imposed dogma.

 

FIRST SOME HISTORY

If one follows the philosophy of science through western history, it is easy to become fascinated with the great debate between science and religion. One case where a scientist was branded a heretic is the famous leaning tower of Pisa experiment done by Galileo who tried to demonstrate by experiment that a heavy ball and a light ball fell at the same rate. This was the scientific method in action and it went against the ideas formulated by Plato, St. Thomas Aquinas, and the Catholic Church who relied on reasoning alone (without experimentation.) Galileo was vilified during his lifetime, but was ultimately vindicated because the scientific method leads inexorably to the truth.

Another famous science vs religion moment was the “Scopes Monkey” trial in 1925 when the two great lawyers, William Jennings Bryant (for the Biblical account) and Clarence Darrow (for the theory of evolution) argued over what should be taught in classrooms in Tennessee. It was the creationist view of the Bible vs. the Darwinian view of natural selection. See below for a video about that event which set the stage for academic enlightenment.

There are many other examples where the great forces of religion and science have been in conflict. A good debate on this topic occurred between Bill Moyer and Neil deGrasse Tyson. In this discussion, Dr. Tyson makes a powerful argument that religion has been mostly just “filling in the gaps” of science. He notes that many times humans would turn to religion for answers to questions not yet explained by science. A good example is his discussion of Ptolemy. Ptolemy, like many other scientists, did not invoke God until he encountered something that he didn’t fully understand, such as the orbits of the heavenly bodies. (He proposed Earth as the center of the universe, so the orbital patterns of objects circling the sun were very “complicated” from his point of view.) At that point, he stated that he could see the work of “Zeus and the divine ambrosia” in the beauty of the universe. Dr. Tyson would say that he is just “filling in the gaps” with religion until such time as a real answer can be obtained by science.

To see the discussion on this, see below:

 

A NEW KIND OF SCIENCE

What NAA wishes to explore is a disturbing trend in science where by the principles of religion wind their way into science. I am talking about the doctrine that a scientific point of view is considered unchallengeable (or “settled.”) This usually involves true believers and heretics. This comes up more and more in science where certain things simply cannot be challenged. This is a case where science takes on the role of religion and distains the scientific method, setting aside certain beliefs as being beyond criticism.

The best examples of science and religion trading places is in the areas of Darwin’s theories on natural selection and on the AGW theory of human caused global warning.

 

THE TROUBLE WITH DARWIN

Ironically, given it was the Scopes trial that first challenged a strict biblical theory of how life evolved, it is now the very theories of Darwin that have achieved religious dogma status. As NAA has previously discussed (see The Trouble With Trilobites) there are two problems with Darwin’s theories. The first is the Cambrian explosion where phyla after phyla made their first appearance in a very short window (5-10 million years). There were no precursors in the Pre-Cambrian period and attempted explanations such as “soft bodied precursors being lost” have been largely discredited. I am not saying that this is where you must invoke God, but this is where you must challenge science to do better. But any disagreement in this area is immediately challenged as being religious in nature. Darwin has become a priest for the modern scientist and questions are not allowed. This is unscientific. In fact, if one is fair, the fossil record seems to support a “forest” of initial creatures and not a single tree as Darwin suggested.

The same problem arises with the question of how did life cross the life-nonlife barrier. Science has a tenet that somehow life arose from the primordial soup and then Darwin’s theories took

over. There is simply no scientific basis for this belief as nothing more than a few amino acids have ever been produced by scientific experimentation. Darwin as religious doctrine prevents needed inquiry into this area. Religion is not the alternative, better science is. (NAA has proposed a possible scientific explanation – See Musings and Speculations on the Cambrian Explosion.) How life crossed the life/no-life barrier is one of the really big “missing gap” questions. Pretending this is not a problem and keeping it from academic discussion is a problem.

 

AGW AND THE ABANDONMENT OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

Another example of where science has adopted the principles of religion is the so called science of global warming. Clearly the IPCC models have been wrong. They have produced forecasts that are dramatically too high when compared to reality. Their hypotheses must therefore be rejected. There has even been scientific fraud to try to hide historical records and out and out data manipulation has been done to support the key tenants of the AGW belief system (to wit the “hockey stick” cover-up.) It is argued that the matter is “settled” (like some 14th century priest might have done). Non believers are treated as heretics and some green supporters of the AGW theory have even called for the arrest or even the beheading of skeptics. Does this sound like science or a fundamentalist religion?

Also the manipulation of data to support a theory is simply unforgiveable. NOAA land temperatures have resulted in the elimination of readings from cold regions (Russia dropping out probably explains the entirety of the warmth in the 1990’s). Also the past has been systematically cooled and the present systematically warmed (when any proper consideration of the urban heat island effect should have produced just the opposite result.)

Next, we have the IPCC report for policy makers. This is done BEFORE the IPCC report by scientists. Yes that is right, the political report comes first and the science report comes second (and it is expected to match the political report.) This is quasi religion (pretending to be science) at its worst.

Finally, we have full proselytizing whereby school children are given full on propaganda about the AGW religion. It is taught as scientific truth despite the fact that no one in school today has ever experienced a warming planet (we now have over 18 years of zero trend line according to the satellite records.) And in a scandal of biblical proportions, the US government wants to use the Disney movie Frozen to teach children about their AGW beliefs. Again does this sound like science or religion?

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

The wizard believes that if there were a modern day Scopes trial about AGW, Clarence Darrow would be on the side of the skeptics, because the abandonment of the scientific method and the

doctrine of true believers and heretics is clearly being expounded by the pretend science of the Anthropogenic Global Warming folks. The AGW fraud is even worse than the issues with Darwin. In the case of the latter, the theory may well be largely right, but it needs to accept that there are gaps that need better science to explain what has happened. In the case of AGW, it is an out and out abandonment of the scientific method. This has been the worse science of the last 100 years because skepticism is not only not welcome (as is required by good science), it is not allowed. Only by way of a vigorous and open debate can true science prevail over the bigotry of the politically correct. In the Wizards view, AGW and extreme environmentalism should be treated as a religion and not allowed in schools on the grounds that it is a violation of church and state. Ok I don’t really want that (although it is logical), BUT what I do want is a return to scientific honesty and a belief in the scientific method. It makes me sad that science has lost it’s way.

 

 

 

Posted under Miscellany,Predictions and Possibilities

Something Wicked This Way Comes Posted On January 8, 2015 | Add Comment |

Ok this is not about the famous Ray Bradury novel Something Wicked This Way Comes, although the infamous Dr. Dark just might make an appearance. Rather this is about BAD THINGS THAT ARE DUE. Yes NAAites everywhere, we are living on borrowed time. You see our friendly planet has a dark side.

If you listen closely to the rumbling of the earth, you just might hear Gaia say, “Nice planet you got there. It would be a shame if something were to happen to it.” Ok so maybe Gaia doesn’t exactly talk like she’s from New Jersey, but there are a lot of very bad things that could happen to earth that are high on the “overdue list.”

For all of you out there who just can’t wait to experience a post apocalyptic adventure, here are some of the things that just might bring that about. But be careful what you ask for … some of these are super nasty and Mel Gibson and Tina Turner might just not be there to provide the entertainment. And remember in some scenarios, you just might wind up in District 12.

The list:

 

MAGNETIC POLE REVERSAL

Ok so what’s so bad about a magnetic pole reversal? I just get out my compass and it will point south instead of North. Make a few software patches to my GPS and I am all set. WRONG. If the pole does reverse, and it is a mere 540,000 years OVERDUE, the magnetic fields will temporarily collapse (for up to 10,000 years) and radiation will pour in. This means that the earth will fry and you will likely get a very bad sunburn, go hungry and die. Just saying.

For a video on magnetic pole reversal, watch this:

For a thought provoking book on the subject, see below.

 

YELLOWSTONE SUPER VOLCANO

Ok for this one, you might have a shot at survival unless of cource you live somewhere between St Louis and Los Angeles, in which case you likely to be killed outright. For the rest of you, you can expect darkened skys’ for years, massive die-offs of crops and animals and a cold spell that will make you think you are stuck in a sort of groundhog day Grinch holiday. Burr … very bad stuff … but at least you would almost certainly have lots of white Christmases for the next couple of decades. If death and mass starvation are your thing, this ones for you.

Here is a video explaining the whole freaking disaster.

And here is a link for more on the topic.

http://www.livescience.com/200-super-volcano-challenge-civilization-geologists-warn.html

 

MAJOR ASTEROID COLISION

65 million years ago, an asteroid about 10 miles across hit earth and wiped out the dinosaurs and just about everything else. Asteroids of this size hit earth about every 65 million years or so. What? Uh Oh. Not good. Yes that’s right. There is an asteroid out there in deep space about to suffer a major perturbation in it’s orbit. It is clearly marked “To whom it may concern.” Were it not for Jupiter sucking these things into it’s gravitational well, it would happen more often. Good old Jupiter … we luv ya. I wouldn’t worry much about this one however … you will see a flash and then feel nothing … for a very long time.

 

A NEW LITTLE ICE AGE

Want something a bit more imminent … something that will almost certainly happen during your lifetime?

OK then, I give you the bi-centennial solar minimum. This will be a period of super cold weather and will start somewhere around 2015 and bottom out somewhere around 2031. It’s another one of those mass starvation, food riots type events … so make sure you are well stocked with food and ammo. Oh yeah, let the Hunger games begin.

For those longing for a Maunder Minimum type cold event, watch this:

 

A NEW BIG ICE AGE

And for those who want more than just a little cold, I give you the coming Real Ice Age. We are currently in an interglacial warming period and these usually last about 10,000 years. The current one has lasted about 11,000 years so we are due. This is a woolly mammoth type event, so clone people get to work. Protein and fur definitely will be needed. In this flavor of disaster, ice will cover most of North America and New York City will be entombed in Ice. The Wizard predicts the Yankees will go south for spring training and never come back.

 

OK, the above is just a partial list of bad things that could happen. EMP blasts (real or man made,) plus a gamma-ray burst (link here), a takeover by skynet and a host of other nameless evils are all on the menu. Me I’m on a disaster diet so I won’t be selecting any of the above. Plus, I have sort of a hobbit’s view on adventure, so I really really prefer none of these things. For you seekers of Thunderdome, good luck … you will need it.

 

Posted under Miscellany,Predictions and Possibilities

Dr Walter Henry, Echocardiography and “Chasing Ghosts” Posted On December 23, 2014 | Add Comment |

               

As part of NAA’s ongoing tribute to great minds in science and medicine, this week’s tribute is to Dr Walter L. Henry, one of the pioneers in the field of echocardiography. While there have been many who contributed in this key field of medicine, such as Inge Edler, Carl Hertz and Harvey Feigenbaum, to name a few, Dr Henry’s contribution was unique in that he used his skills as part of the NASA space program to do before and after evaluations of American astronauts. So NAAites, be patient, your space fix is coming. Here then is the story of this remarkable man.

 

GROWING UP

Walter was born in a small town in Western Maryland to a family of modest means but exceptional character and integrity. Walter’s father was a 33rd degree mason who dedicated his life to helping others. He used to go to the poor parts of town to “recruit” kids to play church league basketball. While he always had a winning team, the real purpose was to help kids that were on the verge of making poor life choices. For over half a century, he would still get letters thanking him for the help that he had given them at such a crucial stage in their life.

The town itself was a backwater place whose the local radio station used to claim that it played both kinds of music – Country and Western. Walt spent his summers at camp or fishing with Uncle Daryl (see picture below.) His uncle used to take him to culturally “diverse” places where the locals looked like they had just come from the set of Deliverance. But apparently the fishing was good.

Leroy (as he was called then) was an outstanding student of course, but was also a very good basketball player making all city and all conference. He also loved football and was the QB that helped his team win the big game when the teams star went down.

In the movie Night of the Living Dead, Cumberland, Maryland was said to be the first place where they had both kinds of people, the ambulatory living and the ambulatory dead. Like the zombies, Walter headed to Pittsburgh.

 

COLLEGE

At the University of Pittsburgh, Walter majored in Electrical Engineering. But the experience was so much more. He was voted runner-up for the Mr. Pitt award (given to the most popular student) as a result of his many intramural, Greek and other activities (and really, who was going to beat out Mike Ditka.)

He also enjoyed the zeitgeist of the times as well. In 1960, Walter could go to the top of Schenley Towers and see the Pirates and the Steelers play in old Forbes Field. Even today, if you

close your eyes and look towards where the old ballpark used to be, you just might hear the echo of the day that Bill Mazeroski hit the greatest home run in World Series history.

And the early sixties were also a time when folk singers ruled pop culture. Groups like The Kingston Trio, the Limelighters, and Peter, Paul and Mary (see below) could be heard asking such delphian questions as “where have all the flowers gone?” or “will he ever return?” In fact Walter was in charge of a Peter, Paul and Mary concert while he was at Pitt.

And as some answers were just blowing in the wind, other bolder visions were being set down. One such was John Kennedy saying that America should go to the moon before the decade was out. It was a remarkable challenge and it was just as remarkable that America stepped up to make it happen.

When the Dodgers and Giants moved to California, America’s cultural epicenter moved with it and so in 1964, Walter went west as well to attend Stanford University to study medicine.

 

MEDICAL SCHOOL

Stanford was a remarkable place in the mid 60’s. The medical school alone had multiple Nobel Prize winners. With his choice of any disciple now open, Walter chose to do research in cardiology while he was a medical student which set the stage for what was to come. His research at Stanford included research in kidney transplants in animals.  Also, the technique for heart transplants in animals was part of the tapestry of Stanford that eventually led to breakthroughs in human heart transplants.

The human heart as culture was also changing in the late 60s and Dr Henry was in the San Francisco Bay area when Haight Asbury started America on a new course of mild altering drugs, free love and psychedelic music. It was an exciting time with the Magic Bus always just a token away. Dr. Henry was there donating his time to the afflicted of the counter culture.

After great success at Stanford (being one of three students honored for special merit,) Dr. Henry was off to the East Coast again, this time to NYC for his internship.

 

NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH

After completing his internship at the Albert Einstein hospital in the Bronx, Walter left for the NIH in Bethesda, Maryland. This was to be the place where his remarkable work took place. When first asked what work he intended to pursue there, Dr Henry said echocardiography. His boss at the time didn’t think much of the choice as he said that was just like “chasing ghosts”. It was a reference to the impossible to read grainy images which were the standard of its time.

After Walter arrived at the NIH he was matched up with an engineer who had the perfect set of skills to make the ghosts go away.  And so Walter Henry and an engineer named Jim Griffith set out to fix what was wrong. And they succeeded wildly by being able to generate two-dimensional images of the human heart and were among the very first people to see truly clear images of the beating human heart. It was an extraordinary accomplishment and one of the rewards for this was to be part of America’s dream of conquering space. For more about the work at the NIH see the video below.

 

WORKING WITH NASA

Dr. Henry was involved with two NASA space programs – the 84 day final Skylab mission and the Apollo Soyuz mission. He studied both crews of these missions at the Johnson Space Center in Texas and later aboard the recovery ships within one hour after splashdown.  Recall that America had lost the race to be first into space when the Russians launched sputnik in 1957 and then launched the first human in space (Yuri Gagarin) in 1961. This is what prompted the great

space race for the moon. America it turned out had the right stuff and in the end, they made John F Kennedy’s vision a reality.

The early astronauts came from the test pilot program and they were of the Yee haw – hit the damn button school of spaceflight. In fact, Dr Henry recounts a story that he heard about one flight.  The astronauts were supposed to abort the flight should any one of several buttons in the cockpit lit up red. When all the lights lit red during a lighting strike during liftoff, the astronaut in charge of the abort decision just said, “yippee ki yay” and off they went (no one was hurt.) It was as colorful a group of characters as you could assemble, and Walter got to meet many of them. One crew member even tried to use his wife’s x-rays when his own x-ray showed a problem … nobody wanted to miss their turn to go into space.

Being on the naval ships and giving the astronauts physicals and echocardiograms was a great honor, but it was living history of the best kind. Being involved with the first people in human history to go into space was pretty amazing stuff.

  

The Apollo Soyuz team – circa 1975

 

WHAT CAME NEXT

For his work in helping to bring echocardiography to the world and for his exceptional talent, Dr Henry was given such awards as being a Fulbright Professor during an American College Cardiology Circuit Course in Brazil and Argentina, the America College of Cardiology Circuit Course in India and Ski Lanka, the National Academy of Science Study Course in Egypt, and the Distinguished Alumni Award of the University of Pittsburg, as well as many others.

Dr. Henry capped his remarkable career by heading to the University of California at Irvine where he continued his research in echocardiography before becoming Dean of the Medical

School in 1989. He also founded a software company and today lives with his wonderful and talented wife Maria del Carmen Calvo, an artist of some considerable fame.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

NAA salutes Dr. Henry for his outstanding contribution to the world of medicine. He was from a generation that knew how to stand and deliver. NAA hopes that there is still a reserve of people just like him to keep the country great. NAA also wants to thank the inestimable scientist for being a truly wonderful brother. It’s been an honor to share the journey.

Wizard on left, Doc on right.

 

Final Final thought – What else can you take pictures of with echo? Behold the baby Santana.

Posted under Life Beyond Earth,Miscellany,Technology

Modeling the Midnight Sun – A New Theory of Climate Change Posted On November 18, 2014 | Add Comment |

 

ITS GOING TO GET COLD

Most people are only aware of the AGW models that predict as CO2 levels rise temperatures will rise. However there are other factors that explain climate change and these occur with incredible regularity and none are included in any traditional climate models. The wizard is talking about solar cycles and these are really fascinating to consider.

John L. Casey and others have shown that there are solar cycles of 11 years, 100 years and 200 years (actually 206 years) that repeat consistently. The one that has a major impact is the bicentennial cycle. The Maunder Minimum occurred during the Little Ice Age and one can see pictures of Ice fairs on the Thames River in London. This was a time of extreme cold and the history of that period was very bad for humans. There were crop failures and famines, along with diseases which effected the weakened populous. That was about 400 years ago. See below for picture of the ice fair.

 

Maunder Minimum

The cycle repeated again during America’s Revolutionary War and during this time we also had great hardship around the world. This solar cycle was called the Dalton Minimum and it was slightly less cold than the Maunder Minimum. See below for Washington’s’ famous crossing of the Delaware where the river was covered in ice flows.

 Dalton Minimum

 

And guess what NAAites everywhere … it’s back. Yes the 206 year cycle has started to return and we are seeing evidence of the waning of the sun. Here are a few things that were predicted by John Casey (see quick book review at the end of the blog):

1. Sun spot activity has declined substantially (cycle 24 now less than 65 sunspots … lowest since 1906)

2. The Northern lights have dimmed as solar activity has diminished.3. The sun has shrunk in size.4. The polar ice caps have started to grow.5. Winters are becoming colder (over 1300 record cold temperatures were recorded in the

US in the month of November alone. Denver even recorded its lowest daily high since 1892.)

Yes, I can hear the AGW voices saying it’s actually caused by the polar vortex which is caused by global warming. Yes black is white and the real cause is CO2. That’s what you might hear. But ask yourself if something can cause both high and low temperatures, is that really a useful theory … especially when there are other extremely credible models going back 1200 years that indicate the sun varies in output on a regular basis.

The Russians have been predicting that by 2030 or so we would be entering a very cold phase .. a new Little Ice Age. And in his book Dark Winter, John L. Casey has reaffirmed that the 206 year cycle is almost upon us. We have had no warming for 18 years and if history is any indicator, we are about to enter a period of extreme cooling. Hopefully, it will be more along the lines of the Dalton Minimum and not the Maunder Minimum as the Little Ice Age was truly a time of human tragedy. The Dalton Minimum level was bad enough (about a 1.5 degree centigrade drop in global temperatures)

What the Wizard wants to know is why are these known repeating cycles not incorporated into the climate models that are used today. It would make for far better science. But alas it would also reduce the alarm level and so would have no political imperative. It is sad that climate science is apparently ignoring truly significant verifiable aspects of temperature changes just for the sake of ideology.

 

MORE BAD NEWS

And for more bad news, unlike AGW which has no positive feedback, the solar minimum results of extreme cold do have positive feedbacks. There is evidence that earthquakes and volcanos occur with greater frequency during times of extreme cold. Not sure the causal factors, but it is pretty clear that such activities are correlated with extreme cold weather. This means that if we get a massive volcano like say Mt. Tambora in 1815, then the volcanic ash spewing into the air can partially block the sun and cause temperatures to plummet even further. The year without a summer took place in 1816 was directly tied to the Mt Tambora eruption. See video below:

 

BOOK REVIEW

An outstanding book that lays out the case for long term solar cycles is Dark Winter by John L Casey (The previous version was Cold Sun.) A former NASA rocket scientist, he lays out the research he did to document the bicentennial cycles which had been little studied in the U.S. What is great about his theory is that he has made predictions about solar activity that have turned out to be true. (Unlike the AGW predictions which have been almost universally wrong.) The Wizard of NAA strongly recommends this book for those willing to consider alterative theories of climate change. I found the evidence presented to be very persuasive

           2011         2014

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

Our planet may be headed for a Little Ice Age. This may go against all current theories of climate change, but it is based on solid evidence that cycles of the sun repeat and can be predicted accurately. If this is true, dramatically different energy and agricultural policies will be needed if the earth is to avert a climate disaster. At the very least, we should be considering this evidence very closely and incorporating this into all climate models. AND if you haven’t bought a really warm jacket, I would suggest you do so before the prices go up. Storing up a few seeds and nuts might not be a bad idea either. BBBRRR … it just might get a little nippy out there.

 

NEXT UP: What Causes Ice Ages (including the Carbon Dioxide / Mineral Dust Theory of Ice Age Cycles  … get out your disco boots because we are going back to the 70’s)

Posted under History Gone Wild,Miscellany,Predictions and Possibilities

Life On Venus Posted On May 12, 2015 | Add Comment |

Ok, it’s time to take a fresh look at Venus and whether it might be habitable after all. NAA is happy to speculate on two ways humans could live on (or above) Venus. The first of these ways is the CLOUD CITY method of life on Venus and this is becoming the standard model that you will find when researching this topic. The second way involves cooling the planet so that all the nasty CO2 will fall from the sky like snow. Both methods rely on the same principles, so here we go. 

METHOD 1 – LIVING IN A CLOUD CITY

This is the easiest one by far and would be really cool. As you know, the surface of Venus is a toasty 462 degrees centigrade(864 degrees Fahrenheit.) Whoa … that is really hot. Hot enough to melt lead. Living on the surface is just not going to happen with things as they are. Even the probes we have sent have failed to stay intact on the planet for more than a few minutes … because they melted.

However, just like Earth, as you go higher, it gets cooler. With an atmospheric pressure that is 90 times that of Earth, the surface is scaldingly hot because of the extreme pressure. But if you go to 1000 millibars of pressure (Earth’s land pressure) you will not only have just the right pressure, you will also have just about the right temperature (about 17 % hotter per measurements by probe.) For an interesting discussion of the temperature of Venus, see the earlier blog post on the topic here.)

Even better, an Earth atmosphere of 78 % nitrogen and 21 % oxygen and the usual trace elements, including CO2, methane, etc. would “float on an atmosphere of CO2 (which is what comprises the Venusian atmosphere.) Just like a ship at sea where the displacement of water allows for buoyancy of metallic hulls, a cloud city comprised of a giant doom and a carbon nanotube floor, all filled with soils and water and an earth atmosphere could naturally cruise the skies of Venus like a schooner on a balmy day. OK, its more like a submarine whose buoyancy has been set to float at 1000 millibars of pressure .. but still you get the picture. (See artists rendering below and at the top of the post.)

Well how would this city be built you ask? The key here is a massive energy source (presumably Thorium reactors), robotic life forms as workers and plenty of CO2 (which Venus has in abundance). With energy, you could strip the carbon from CO2 and create graphite construction materials (or possible carbon nanotube construction materials and spin off plenty of oxygen as a by product. You would have to bring in the nitrogen and certain trace gases  to create an earth like atmosphere in the sealed chamber that you would build. Add a little water and some crops and plants and viola you have a pleasant place to live.

There would be raging storms on occasion and radiation which would require a shield of some kind and atmosphere robbing asteroids and other nasty things, but it is possible to imagine a life on Venus high above the hell below. The wizard gives this about a 30% chance of happening within 100 years. Living underground on Mars gets a 50% probability of happening within 100 years. The reason the difference is so close is because Venus is closer than Mars and getting supplies to the Cloud Cities would be way easier than getting supplies to Mars. To See a video on the Cloud Cities model see below: 

METHOD 2 – LIVING ON A TEMPERATURE CONTROLLED SURFACE

   CO2 Snow

To live on the surface, you need to lower the atmospheric pressure (currently a crushing 90 times Earth’s) and lower the temperature … a lot. Well there is a far fetched way to do this that the wizard is happy to report. Recall your orbital physics and remember that there is a place between the Sun and Venus where an object could exist and remain in perpetual orbit between the two. It would be like a geosynchonos satellite and would never move from its strategic location. This is called a Lagrange orbit and here is a diagram showing you how that would work. The L1 position is where we would place our Venusian thermostat.

So we start with a work station in L1 orbit and a Cloud City floating as high a s possible above the surface of Venus to extract carbon construction materials. Both would need massive energy sources … presumably Thorium reactors to get started and lots of robotic workers. The CO2 in the Cloud Work Unit would make carbon structural components for the giant space shield that we would have to construct. These components would be built in a way that each unit could allow a little or a lot of light to pass. Then you simply start to build a bigger and bigger shield. Eventually you would start to shade more and more of the planets surface until the temperature started to cool. This would cause a massive CO2 snow storm and with each falling flake, the CO2 would leave the atmosphere. Eventually you would have an atmospheric pressure at the surface of 1000 millibars. By modulating the light that hits the planet, you could also have an Earth like temperature.

Is this a reduiculously massive engineering feat … oh yeah. BUT it is possible because it utilizes the materials of the planets itself to create the shield. With seed capital and robotic workers tirelessly building, you would eventually get your shade. Very little in the way of Earth materials would be needed after an initial phase.

Please note that even a partial shield would create shaded zones, hot zones and transitional zones which might be habitable by robotic people designed for the new surface conditions. Such creatures (as were discussed in the various Life on Mars posts) would be appropriate for their world and while it wouldn’t be Earth like, it might well be an interesting place to live for humans instantiated into their Venusian bodies. The wizard gives this plan about a 5% chance of happening in the next 1000 years. Ironically, any Cloud Cities that might be built would argue against a shield plan as the two ideas are mutually exclusive. 

SUMMARY

OK the wizard has taken wild speculation to new heights (literally). The Cloud Cities concept probably will happen eventually … but with artificial creatures leading the way. Colonizing the planet with a giant sun screen … probably never going to happen. The thing is however, who knows what creatures could accomplish if they never gave up … just kept at it, creating structures from the carbon in the atmosphere … building units that could easily click together while drawing energy from the solar side for their work. If they just kept doing it, year after year, decade after decade, it just might be possible. The wizard could certainly imagine a new and amazing Venus eventually emerging from the strivings of robotic ant-like creatures with a collective will. It is the collective will of a swarm of intelligent self creating robots that is the most interesting aspect of the thermostat project.

Posted under Life Beyond Earth,Miscellany,Predictions and Possibilities,Technology