Politics Indiana V14 N42

By JACK COLWELL WASHINGTON-BarackObama’smentoroninter-nationalaffairsisanIndianaRepublicanwhosupportsJohnMcCainforpresident.Sen.RichardG.LugarurgedObama

toseekmembershipontheSenateForeignRelationsCommitteebackin2005,whenLugarwaschairmanofthatprestigiouscommittee.Then,whenObamabecameamember,heletthefreshmansenatorfromIllinoistravelwithhimtoRussiatoviewthecontinuedprogressoftheNunn-Lugarprogram,theprogramthathasridtheworldofthousandsofnuclearwarheadsintheformerSovietUnion,

“No, but that’s not too important. What’s important is the casualties in Iraq.” - U.S. Sen. John McCain, asked on the Today Show when the U.S. will pull out of Iraq

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Can Barack Obama carry Indiana? With or without EvanBayh, yes he canBy BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS-ComenextNovember,canBarackObamacarryIndianaandits11ElectoralCollegevotes?Yeshecan.Atthispoint,itseemsunlikelyalmostduetotheforceofhistory,butpossible.ButifObamaweretoputU.S.Sen.EvanBayhontheticket,theoddsincreasedramatically.Whilethere’sbeenplentyoftalkabouttheDemo-crats carrying New Mexico (five) and Colorado (nine), prying the Indiana ElevenmustbeappealingtoDemo-craticstrategists.ThisdespiteJohnMcCain’sadvantages,whichincludeinitialsupportduringthepresidentialprimariesfromGov.MitchDaniels,plusitsredstatehistorythatusuallyhaveitmarkedupontheRepublicansideoftheledgeraround6:01p.m.ineveryelectionsince1968. Therewasarecord1.7millionturnoutintheMayprimary,including1.3millionwhovotedDemocratic.TheObamacampaignregisteredatleast90,000newvotersand

hasagoalofregistering100,000moreHoosiersbetweennowandOctober.Thecampaign’sregistrationgroupmeetseveryWednesdayinIndianapolistoworkonthegoal. “It’sanewyear,”saidMichaelDavisofGaugeMarketResearch.“We’vegotanAfrican-Americannominee

See Page 3

Lugar, Obama & McCain

Barack Obama drew capacity crowds, like this one in Plainfield in Republican Hendricks County on March 15. (HPI Photo by A, Walker Shaw)

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weaponsonceaimedattheUnitedStates. MutualconcernandrespectledtopassageoftheLugar-Obamanonproliferationinitiative.PatternedafterNunn-Lugar,theinitiativeseekstogetridofstockpilesofconventionalweapons, such as shoulder-fired mis-silesthatterroristscouldusetodownairplanes.Italsoenhanceseffortstodetectandinterdictweaponsofmassdestruction. So, it was not surprisingthatObama,duringhisquestfortheDemocraticpresidentialnomination,citedhisworkwithLugarandranTVcommercialsshowingaphotoofthetwoofthem.ObamasaidLugaristhetypeofRepublicanhewouldwelcomeinhisCabinet.Andthereevenwassomeratherfar-fetchedspeculationlastweekthatLugarcouldbeonObama’slistofvicepresidentialrunningmates. WhatdoesLugarsay? Well,herepeatswhathesaidconsis-tentlybeforewhenmentionedasapossiblesecretaryofstateinRepublicanadministra-tions:“No.” “Itwouldnotbeagoodideaforapresi-dentorforme,”LugarsaidashediscussedthislatestspeculationoverlunchintheSenateDin-ingRoom.“Wecandothebestforthepresidentandthecountryrightwhereweare,”hesaid. Lugar, thoughnolongerForeignRelationsCommitteechair-man,withDemocratscontrollingtheSenate,stillisthemostrespectedRepublicanvoiceonforeignrelationsintheSenate.Hewelcomesthatrole,evenwhenhehasfeltcompelledtobreakwithapresidentofhisownpartyoverpolicyinIraq.Hewarned

earlythattheBushadministrationhadinadequateplanningforwhattodoafterinitialmilitaryvictoryinIraq.Un-fortunately,hiswarningswereignored. Lugar wouldbeunabletoissueanysuchpublicwarningsifserv-inginapresident’sCabinetassecre-taryofstate. U.S. Sens. Richard Lugar (left) andBarackObamainRussiain2005.(Lugar Senate Photo)”If you are part oftheadministration,youareworkingforsomebodyelse,”hesaid.HewouldratherworkforandatthepleasureofthevotersofIndiana,whoseemtoadmirehiswillingnesstospeakoutoninternationalaffairsandtoseekabipartisanapproach.

OntheForeignRelationsCom-mittee,heseeksconsensus,contend-ingthatthenationisinthestrongestpositionwhenunitedonforeignpolicy.ThatwasoneofthereasonshetelephonedObamarightaftertheDemocratwaselectedtotheSenateandencouragedhimtoseekmember-shiponthecommittee.HeknewofObama’sinterestintheNunn-LugarprogramandwantedtoenlisttherisingDemocraticstarinabipartisan

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008Page 2

U.S. Sens. RIchard Lugar and Barack Obama in Russia in 2005. (Lugar Senate Photo)

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008Page 3

approach. LugarpraisedObamaforwillingnesstolearnofissuesbeforethecommitteeandparticipateinthework,includingworkontheinitiativetheycosponsored.Lestanyonedrawthewrongconclusion,LugarisaRepublicanandwillsupportMcCain,notObama,forpresident.“IcastavoteforJohnMcCainrecentlyintheIndianaprimary,”Lugarsaid,“AndIwilldothesameinthefall.” He praised McCainrecentlyafterthepresump-tiveRepublicanpresidentialnomineedistancedhimselffromtheBushadministrationbyvowingtoworkmorecloselywithRussiaonnucleardisarmamentandbycall-ingforareductionintacticalnuclearweaponsinEurope.Infact,LugarconferredwithMcCainbeforeMcCainmadethosecomments.Hethenwaspreparedimmediatelytorespondwithagreement. “Itwasdeliberateonhispart,”LugarsaidofMcCain’sdesiretostrikeoutonacoursedifferingfromthatofPresidentBush. ChancesarethateitheraPresidentMcCainoraPresidentObamawouldshowmoreinterestinLugar’s

viewsonforeignrelationsthaneverwasshownbyPresi-dentBush,whopreferredtobelieveDonaldRumsfeldinsteadonwhethertherewasanadequateplanforwhattodoaftertroopsreachedBaghdad. Does Lugar think Obama hastheexperienceneededtohandlechallengesofthepresidency?No.ButhequicklyaddedthatMcCaindoesn’tether,because“no-bodydoes.”Thechallengesaresoenormous,hesaid,thatnobody can step into the office and readily find answers. InIraq,hesaid,thenextpresident,whetherMcCainorObama,willface“thesameproblem,”howandwhentowithdrawtroops,nomatterwhethertheyshouldorshouldn’t have been sent there in the first place. Lugardidn’tschoolObamaoninternationalrela-tionstohelpObamatobecomepresident.Butthatschool-ingcouldhelpthecountryifObamadoesreachtheWhiteHouse.v Colwell has reported on Indiana politics for the South Bend Tribune for almost five decades. His weekly column appears at www.howeypolitics.com on Mondays.

forpresident,afemalenomi-neeforgovernorandallthosenewlyregisteredvoters.Wedon’tknowwhatissuewillmotivatethem.WhileIwouldputIndianaasleansMcCain,Indianaisnolongeranautomaticredstate.SixmonthsagoIwouldhavesaidI’dbeshockedifObamawouldcarrythestate.ButtodayIwouldnot.” ChrisSautter,anIndiananativeandWashingtonpoliticalmediaconsultant,said,“IthinkthevastmajoritywhovotedintheprimarywillvoteDemocraticinthegeneral.Andthere’smore.TheObamapeoplearecomingbackin.EvenifIndianaisn’tinplaynextfall,theywillhavedonealotofregistrationwork.” AninternalpolltakenonbehalfofDemocraticgubernato-rialcandidateJillLongThompsonshowedObamaleadingJohnMc-Cain43-42percent.ItwastakenonMay20-22,beforeHillaryClintonsuspendedhercampaignandbackedObama.Thepollhada3.5percentmarginof

error. “Theythinktheycanputitinplay,”saidSautter,whocom-municatesregularlywithDavidAxelrodoftheObamacam-paign.“Thescenarioishecon-tinuestoregistertensofthou-sandsofunregisteredvoterswhilehegeneratesturnoutsincollegecommunitiesandinnercitiesatrecordnumbers,”Saut-terexplained.“IthinkweknowfromtheprimarythathehasuniqueappealinareaswhereDemocratshavenotdonewell.HecarriedHamiltonandBooneandthosearehigherincomeareasthatnormallygoprettyheavilyRepublican.Hewon’tcarrythosecountiesagain,butifhemakesstrongshowingsinsuburbanIndianapoliscoun-tiesthatwouldnormallybeaslamdunkwithRepublicansandcombinesthatwithhugeturnoutswithyoungervoters,African-Americansandtradi-tionalDemocrats,Ithinkhecanpullitoff,” JayKenworthy,communi-

cationsdirectorfortheIndianaRepublicanParty,echoed

Obama,from page 1

Republican presumptive presidential nominee John Mc-Cain and Gov. Mitch Daniels at an Indianapolis town hall in March. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008Page4

HPI’sanalysis.“It’sunlikely,butpossible,”Kenworthysaid.“Ican’timaginethatBarackObamawouldfocusonourstate.Hespentmillionsofdollarsandatonoftimeintheprimary,andstillcouldn’tpullitoff.HemadenoinroadsinSouthernIndiana.Andtwoofthecountieshedidwin,BooneandHamilton,areRepublicanstrongholds.It’skindofhardtoimaginehimtryingandwinninginNovember.”AthirdObamacounty,Elkhart,isalsoaGOPstronghold. What about an Obama-Bayh ticket?“MaybeEvanBayhjoiningtheticketwouldchangeit,”Kenworthysaid.“Butthat’snotlikely.Thatwouldtakeoutotherstateswewouldhopetopickup.” SauttersaidofBayh,“ObviouslyEvanBayhontheticketgivesrealhopetocarryingIndiana.Heremainsverypopular,notjustamongDemocrats,buteverybody.Inourownpolling,therewasnoevidencethathewasatalldamagedattakingasideintheDemocraticprimary.HedoesbringagoodcombinationofqualitiestoObama:thebackgroundinintelligenceandmilitarymatters,aswellashavingbeenagovernor.Thoseareallqualitiesthat would greatly benefit the ticket. The thingaboutBayhisyoudon’tgetwhatyoumightgetwithHillary;he’snotexactlythenewObamapolitics,buthe’sfresh.” SautteracknowledgedthatBayhwouldnotbeaspoliticallypowerfulinotherMidwesternbattlegroundstatessuchasOhio,MichiganandIowa.“He’snotthatwellknowninthosestates,”Sauttersaid.“Butthatbeingsaid,he’sacomfortablechoiceforvotersinMidwesternstates.He’saMidwesterner.Hisviewsaremoderate.He’sgotavotingrecordthateverybodywouldbecomfortablewith.Ialwaysthinkthemostimportantruleis,donoharm.He’sbeenvetted.That’sthedangerifyougotothelistbelowthosewhohaven’tbeenonthenationalstage.U.S.Sens.JimEagletonandDanQuaylereceivedveepnods,buttheyhadnotbeenonthenationalstagelikeBayhhas.” Sautter interviewed Sen.BayhforanIndianaDemocraticConventionvideointroducingThompsononTuesday.SauttersaidhementionedtheveepstakesandBayh’s first response was, “It’s the silly season.” InanMSNBCinterviewwithAndreaMitchellonTuesday,shenotedthatIndiana“isaredstate”(eventhoughDemocratshaveheldthegovernorshipfor16ofthelast19years,havea5-4leadintheCongressionaldelega-tion,holdaU.S.Senateseat,theIndianaHouse,andaclear majority of the big and medium sized city halls) and saidthatMSNBChasit“leaningMcCain.”CouldObamacarryIndiana,particularlywithBayhontheticket?Bayhresponded,“You’dhavetoaskBarackandhispeoplethat

question.I’mforwhoeverhe’sfor.ButIwillsaythis,put-tingmeaside,thestateofIndianaisverycompetitive.Isawapolloutofourstatejustlastweekthathadit43forBarackObamaand42forJohnMcCain.Nowthiscomesontheheelsofaveryactiveprimaryinourstate.TherewasalotofadvertisingforBarack.Hecampaignedveryactively,soyouhavetotakethatintoaccount.Butthatshowsverymuchwecouldgoeitherwayinthiselection,irrespectiveofwhoischosenforvicepresident.” AskedifObamaveepvettersJimJohnsonandCarolineKennedyhadaskedforhistaxreturnsandotherdocuments,Bayhsaid,“Notyet,buteveniftheyhad

asked,IsuspectIwouldn’tbeabletotellyou.” Thispastweek,ithasbecomeincreasinglyclearthattheAmericaneconomywilllikelybethedrivingforceleadinguptoNovember.Sautterexplainedthattheelec-tioncouldbedecidedoverwhethertheeconomyimprovesbetweennowandthen.“Peoplearescared,”Sauttersaid,echoinganalysisfromtheAprilHowey-GaugePollBrief-ingwhereourpollingshowedeconomicissuesparamounttoHoosiervoters.“Wehaveanunusualphenomenonofacoming recession combined with inflation. That’s a combus-tiblecombination.” In the April 23-24 Howey-Gauge Poll, therighttrack/wrongtracknumbersstoodat39/41percent.WhiletaxesleadthemajorproblemsfacingIndianaat23percent, five of the next six topics were all pocketbook re-lated:19percentcitingjobsandwages,12percentgaslineprices,12percenttheeconomy,7percenthealthcare,and4percentlossofindustry.Brokendownfurther,Republi-cans (27 percent) and independents (29 percent) named taxes the top issue, while Democrats (25 percent) named

Sen. Evan Bayh and Sen. Hillary Clinton at the Anderson Wigwam in March. (HPI Photo by A. Walker Shaw)

Thursday, June 12, 2008Page5

jobsandwagesastheirtopissue.InHowey-Gaugecrosstabs,24percentofbothMcCainandObamasupportersnamedjobsandwagesastheirtopissue.Obamasupport-ersratedotherissues:11percenttheeconomy,12percentgaspricesand5percentlossofindustry.McCainsupport-ersratedtheeconomicissuesvirtuallyidenticaltoObama’s. Davis explained, “Peoplearescaredaboutpocketbookissues.Before,theywereworried,butnowthey’rescared.Clearlythiswillbeaneconomicelection.”IntheAprilHowey-Gaugesurvey,thequestionofinterestintheNovemberelectionsona1to10scale,82percentofofDemocraticvotersansweredeither9or10,comparedto72percentforRepublicans. ThisweeksawwhattheNewYorkTimescharacter-izedanObama“two-weekassaulton...McCain’seconomicpoliciesinaseriesofbattlegroundstates,”inanattemptto define the general election campaign by focusing on the economyasthecentral“prevailingtheme.”Obamasaid,“ThisisthechoiceyoufaceinNovember.YoucanvoteforJohnMcCain,andseeacontinuationofBusheconomicpolicies--moretaxcutstothewealthy,morecorporatetaxbreaks,moremountainsofdebtandlittletonoreliefforfamiliesstrugglingwiththerisingcostsofeverythingfromhealthcaretoacollegeeducation.” The Wall Street Journal explainedthatwithdriverspayinganaverageof$4agallonforgasforthefirst time and the U.S. posting a fifth straight month of job declines(thoughIndiana’sjoblessrateheldsteadyat4.7percent), the economy is at the forefront of the presiden-tialrace.”Theissue“providesoneofthestarkestcontrastsbetweenRepublicanJohnMcCainandDemocratBarackObama,whoholdopposingviewsonsucheconomicpoli-ciesasextendingtheBushtaxcutsandatemporarysus-pensionofthefederalgastax.Sen.McCainsupportsbothmeasures,andSen.Obamaopposesthem.”Manyobserv-ers,includingHPI,believethegastaxholidayissueback-fired on Hillary Clinton in the primary, where she eked out a1.14percentpluralitydespitetheworsttwoweeksoftheObamacampaign,whichhadtofendofftheRev.JeremiahWrightstory. McCain’s mostmemorablelinefromthepastweekwasthatObamawouldprovidethe“secondtermoftheJimmyCarterpresidency.”HesaidthatObama’seco-nomicproposalwouldraisetaxeson“Americansofeverybackground.” TofurthergaugethepotentialimpactoftheeconomyinIndiana,anAlanSecrestPollintheRepublican-stronghold3rdCDshowedPreidentBush’sjobapprovalratingsata“disastrous”34percentpositive,65percentnegative. IfMcCaincannoteludetheshadowsoftheBush-CheneyOilPresidency,theanswertowhetherObamawillbecompetitiveinIndiana,evenwithoutEvanBayh,isyeshecan.v

Rating 6 Hoosiers in the ‘08 veepstakesBy BRIAN A. HOWEY

INDIANAPOLIS-We’vecountedsixHoosierswhohavemadeoneormorepublishedveepstakeslistsoverthefirst six months of this year. Some names, like Gov. Mitch Daniels,makezerosensetousinpracticalapplication.Oth-ersliketherumoredObama-Lugarticketseemfar-fetched.Here’sourcurrentreadonthings,subjecttovastchangebetweennowandconventionseasonlatethissummer.

Democrats Sen. Evan Bayh: AstheObamacampaignpoursoverthemapsanditsstrategyofputtingredstatesintoplay,theconversationwhenitcomestoIndiana’s11Elec-toralCollegevoteswouldalmostcertainlyincludeBayh.WhilehebackedHillaryClintonintheIndianaprimary,hedidsowithsupremerespectforBarackObama.Hispolitical

tentaclesreachintoIowaandNewHampshire,wherehisownpresi-dentialcampaigntraineddozensofoperativesandheestablishedrelationswithmanylocallegisla-tors and other party officials. SomebelievethosealliancesinNewHampshirehelpedClintonwinthere.HecertainlyputherinplayinIndiana.WithoutBayh,thereisnowayClintonwouldhavewon.

Bayh has run five general election races in Indiana, winning the first two in 1986 and 1988 by 8 and 6 percent, follow-ingbyhisgubernatorialre-electat25percent,andhistwoSenateracesat29and24percent.WiththeexceptionofhislastSenatecampaign,BayhhashadlongcoattailsinIndiana,whereDemocratswereabletopickupadditionalIndianaHouseseats.Heissqueakycleanontheethicsfront.Heiscredibleonmilitaryaffairs,havingservedontheArmedServicesCommittee.Republicansmightde-picthimasevadingmilitaryservice,but1974highschoolgraduates,havinglivedthroughtheVietnamdebacle,weren’tinclinedtoserveintheU.S.military,particularlywhileitwascuttingback.BayhwouldalsoresonatewithindependentvotersinneighboringstateslikeMichiganandOhio.DemocraticbloggerAlanKatzobservedonMay7,“ByhelpingSenatorClintonwinIndiana’sDemocraticprimary,SenatorBayhhascreatedanewopportunity:runningforvice president on an Obama-Bayh ticket. Most significantly, he’saprovenvotegetterinaredstatewhoappealstotheworkingclassvotersSenatorObamahasbeenlosingto

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008Page 6

SenatorClinton.HisselectionasarunningmatebySena-torObamawouldbeaclearsignaltothesevotersthattheywouldneitherbeignorednorforgotteninanObamaad-ministration.Asanaddedbonus,turningtoSenatorBayhtocompletetheDemocraticticketwouldbeamagnani-mousandpotentgesturetotheClintoncampaign.SenatorBayhwasanearlyendorserofSenatorClinton.Theyarelong-timefriendsandcloseallies.HecampaignedtirelesslyonherbehalfinIndiana.AnObama-BayhticketwouldnotbeasunifyingasanObama-Clintonteaming,butitwouldstillgofarinbindingthepartytogetheragainafterthelongand sometimes vicious primary fight.” Odds: 10 to 1. Sen. Richard Lugar:First,LugaristoooldtobeMcCain’svicepresidentialnominee.McCainneedsayoungerrunningmate.PriortotheMayprimary,weweretalkingwithareporteratNPRandthesubjectofLugar’srelationshipwithBarackObamacameup.“Youknowabouttherumors,”thereportersaid.No,what?“AnObama-Lugarticket.”Getout!Actually,thereissomelogicbehindthethought.ObamahastalkedaboutendingthepoliticsofusualinWashington.SowhatbetterwaythantopickaRepublicanvicepresident?ThelastpresidentfromIllinoisselectedAndrewJohnsontohelpbindupthenation’swounds.Second,heandLugarhaveamutuallywarmrela-tionship, to the point that of the five phone calls Lugar got onhisbirthdayearlierthisspring(hisbrother,Gov.Daniels,Bud Gohman and Rex Early) the fifth was from Obama onthecampaigntrail.TherearesomewhobelievethatObamaneedsanexperiencedWashingtonhandwithconsiderarable foreign exposure. Lugar fits all those bills.AndLugarhasbeendiscussedintheveepstakesgoingbackto1972.Itwouldbethesupremeironythata Democrat would finally make the call. We think this isahighlyunlikelyscenario.AsyoucanreadinJackColwell’s column (page 1) in today’s edition, Lugar is committedtosupportingMcCain,thoughnumerousCapitolHillsourcesdepicttheLugar-McCainrelation-shipasfrosty.ItwouldalsoputhimatcrosshairswithGov.Daniels’re-elect(thoughheandObamareallydofeed off the same “change agent” energy). Third, he’s aRepublican.AloyalRepublican.LugarhasrepeatedlyswattedawayanynotionofleavingtheSenate,wherehebelieveshecanservethepublicbetter.However,afterreadingalltheIraqWarbooksbypeoplelikeBobWood-ward (“State of Denial”), Thomas Ricks (“Fiasco”), and Mi-chael Gordon (“Cobra II”), and finding Lugar’s name barely mentioneddespitehisprescientwarningsofPhaseIV(aswellashisalarmoverthelackofaBush-Cheneyenergystrategy), perhaps he should ponder an inside role in what webelievewillbe,perhaps,themostcrucialfourtoeightyearsinshapingAmerica’sroleinthe21stCentury.Onthesameday-June3-thatObamasecuredthenomination,GMclosedfourautoplantsandtheairlinescutbacktheirroutes,suggestingacriticalpivotpointinAmericanhis-

tory.ObamareachingouttoincludeaRepublicanontheticketwouldsendavividsignalandLugarwouldnotonlybepalatabletomanyDemocrats,butwouldtopourlistofpotentialRepublicans.Ifwemakebaddecisionsontopofthetragiconeswe’vealreadymadethisyoungcenturyonwarandenergy,Americawillnotbethesolesuperpowerin2020andwecouldbeanempireindeclineby2050.TheideaofhavingLugar’svoicesteadilyinaPresidentObama’searisacredibleone,thoughextremely,extremelyunlikely.Odds:100to1 Tim Roemer:Theformersix-termNorthernIndi-anacongressmanvoluntarilyleftCongress,butnotbeforesponsoringthe9/11Commissionlegislationandthenserv-ingonthatbipartisanpanel.HewasastrongproponentforU.S.intelligencereform.HewasanearlybackerofObamaandcampaignedextensivelyintheIndianaprimary.Ro-emerisrelativelyyoung,Catholic,andbringsintelligence,nationalsecurityandeducationcredentialsthatcouldbenefit Obama. Roemer is well known in Northern Indiana, butmuchlesssosouthofKokomo,sohewouldn’thavethedegreeofswaythatBayhwouldhavewhenthe“canhecarrythestate”calculationcomesup.Manyobserversbe-lieveRoemerhasanexcellentchanceatmakinganObamacabinet.Odds20to1 Lee Hamilton:LikeRoemer,he’saformerIn-

diana congressman and 9/11 commissioner. He would fit the“wiseoldman”bringingmaturitytothe46-year-oldObama’sticket.HamiltoncouldputIndianaintoplay,par-ticularlyinthesouth,whichlargelyrejectedhiscandidacyintheIndianaprimarywithHillaryClinton.WashingtonjournalistslikeLouJacobsontakeanObama-Hamiltonseri-ously,butwethinkit’sunlikely.100to1. HPI’s Prediction: WeseethreenamesaheadoftheHoosiersonthelist:VirginiaSen.JamesWebb,formerGeorgiaSen.SamNunn,andMissouriSen.ClaireMcCaskillasourfavorites.WebbwouldputVirginiainplayandisaformersecretaryoftheNavy,sohebringsvividnationalsecuritycredentials.Hissonalsoservedinacombatrole

Former Indiana congressman Tim Roemer (left) at an Obama rally in Fort Wayne on April 4. (HPI Photo by Brian A. Howey)

inIraq,whichcouldtemperMcCain’sstrategyaspaintingObamaaslaxonmilitaryservice.NunnheadsintheNu-clearThreatInitiativeandhasplayedanintegralrolewithSen.Lugaronpost-Sovietworldsecurity.NunnwouldbeinapositiontostrengthenObamaintheSouth.IfObamaneedsafemalerunningmatetohelpbringHillary’svastarrayofsupportfromthatgender,McCaskillwasanear-nestandarticulatedefenderofObamaonthecablenewsnetworks during the fiercest days of his battle with Clinton. ThefactthatMissouriisaswingstatethatPresidentBushcarriedwith55percentin2004makesherselectionprom-ising.Ifwehadtobet,itwouldbeObama-Webb.

Republicans Rep. Mike Pence:TheHoosiercongressmanisaleadingconservativewhohaspartedwithMcCainonkeyissues, such as McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform. ThetwosharedaninfamousmomenttogetherattheSorjaMarketinBaghdadonApril1,2007.AfterMcCainbecamethepresumptivenominee,Penceurgedhimtomakeclearto conservatives where he stood on fiscal and life issues. PencecouldverywellbeonMcCain’sveeplist,butthefactis,youhavetogobackto1964andtheGoldwater-Millerticket to find a House member making the final cut. Plus, theconservativesplitwithMcCainseemstohavetoneddownsubstantiallysinceFebruary Gov. Mitch Daniels: Thegovernorhasrepeatedlysaid that 2008 would be his final political campaign. We first heard it the day before his 2007 re-election campaign kickoff.Actually,Danielswouldmakeagreatvicepresiden-tialcandidate.Butindoingso,hewouldleavetheIndianaRepublicanPartyinsuchalurchthatitmighttakeadecadeorsotodigout.Danielswouldhavetoleavetheguber-natorialticket,whichwouldallbutcedetheelectiontoJillLongThompson.AMcCain-Danielsticketisatotalpipe-dream.Noodds. HPI’s Prediction:Amonthago,wewouldhavebeencomfortablepredictingaMcCain-Romneyticket.MittRomneycouldhelpMcCainintheWest,whereObamaisexpectedtomakeaplayforstateslikeNewMexicoandColorado.However,afterwatchingthepowerfulgendertidethatalmostsecuredtheDemocraticnominationforHill-aryClinton,McCainalmostcertainlywillponderafemalerunningmate.OftheRepublicansavailable,young,attrac-tive Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (an NRA member) is creating considerablebuzzthesedays.OthertopnamesincludenewLouisianaGov.BobbyJindal,FloridaGov.CharlieCrist,MinnesotaGov.TimPawlenty,and,heck,justforkicksCon-necticuttindependentSen.JoeLiebermanandNewYorkCity Mayor Michael Bloomberg (on both R & D lists). If we hadtobet:McCain-Palin.Atthispoint,wethinkthegenderopportunitytrumpsgeography.v

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008Page 7

Oxley, Fernandez in talkswith JLT, sources say; The preposterous ticketof Waterman-Jehl Indiana Governor:Republican:Gov.MitchDaniels. Democrat: JillLongThompson.Libertarian:AndyHorning.2004Results:Daniels1,302,912,Kernan(D) 1,113,900, Gividen (L) 31,664. 2008 Outlook:Whataweird,weirdweek.WhileGov.Danielscalledoffhistripto Japan and was almost (Bill) Clintonesque in his ability to feel the pain of Hoosier flood and tornado victims - cap-turedvividlyondozensofTVnewscasts-hisopponents

wereeitherself-immolat-ingorsedated. WhiletheThomp-soncampaignsaidthey’vealreadymadethechoice,wehaveinformedandreli-ablesourceswhoindicatesheiscurrentlyindiscus-sionswithtwoprospectivenominees:StateRep.Den-

nieOxleyIIandformerBloomingtonMayorJohnFernan-dez.FernandeztoldHPIonMonday,“That’snotsomethingwe’vetalkedaboutverymuch,”whenweaskedhimifhemightbethenominee.Hedidn’tgivetheGen.Shermanspeech,howerver,andwesuspecttheThompsoncampaignhasaskedprospectstokeeplipsbuttoned.Fernandezsaidhehastwoyoungkidsanda“greatgig”withFirstCapitolGroup. Fernandez seemed to fit the profile that Thompson saidonMay7thatshewants:aformerSouth-ernIndianamayorwhohasexperienceineconomicdevelop-mentissues.SourcessayOxleyisweighingwhetherhewantstogiveuphisHouseseat,movetoIndianapolis,gowithoutpayforsixmonths,andtheim-pactonhisfamily(he,too, has young kids). Oxleyisaformeredu-catorwhonowworkswithanengineeringfirm, which gives him

State Rep. Dennie Oxley II is reported-ly soul-searching whether he should join Thompson on the Democratic ticket, informed and reliable sources tell HPI.

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008 Page 8

sometangibleexperienceinwhatThompsonsaidwashertoppriority:econonicdevelopment. The campaign leaked the names of five lieuten-antgovernorcandidates,two(MayorJonWeinzapfelandJohn Gregg) quickly bowed out. One blog reported that VanHaaftensaidhewasn’tinterested.Anothernamewe’veheardisNewAlbanyMayorDougEngland,whojustreas-sumed his office in January after serving two terms in the ‘90s. SinceThompson’sMay6primarywin,shehasre-ceivedonlyonecampaigndonationmeetingorsurpassingthe$10,000reportingthreshhold:$25,000fromtheDemocraticGovernorsAssocia-tion.Oursourcescharacterizeitasa“keepthelightson”infusionofmoney.TheThompsoncampaignisalso currently advertising for a field director,whichseemsextremelylatetobeliningupsuchacriticalposi-tion.ThishasbeenmostlyawastedmonthforThompson.She’shadonepressconferencethatreceivedanycoverage(withChairmanDanParkerandotherDemsinashowof“unity.”) ThompsonisexpectedtorevealherLGchoiceJune16or17,nearlysixweeksafterherprimaryvictory.Thishaswastedtimethatdidlittletocreatethepercep-tionofanymomentumafterhertiny1.14percentvictoryoverJimSchellinger(whoran,perhaps,thethirdworstcampaigninmodernIndiana history). Had she found an LGcandidate,onewouldhavethroughttheticketwouldhavebeennamed,quicklyfanningouttostokeupinter-est.ButtheStatehousecommunityrumormillisthatThompson has had trouble finding a running mate who wouldacceptthejob.Ontopofallthis,theJLTcampaignreleasedaBerensonStrategyGroupPoll(May20-22,765likely, +/-3.5 percent) that shows Daniels leading Thom-spon46-39percent.TheDanielscampaigncharacterizeditasa“pushpoll.”TheJLTcampaignreleasenoted,“WhiletheinitialballottestshowsDanielswithasevenpointlead,thepollfoundthatonceHoosiervoterslearnedmoreabouteachcandidate’sbackgroundandpolicypositions,theracebecomesatiewith45percentsupportingeachcandidate.”It’s the first time in memory that a campaign released a pollshowingthecandidatetrailing.Anotherpoll,publishedbyIndianaLegisltiveInsight(whichrefusedtoidentifythepollster,thoughwebelieveitwasconductedfortheIndi-ana Casino Association) had Daniels leading 51-35 percent.

ThatisconsistentwiththeAprilHowey-GaugePoll,whichhadDanielsleadingThompson55-36,percentandinternalnumbersfromthegovernor’scampaign. PerhapsThompsonhasatrumpcarduphersleeve.ThereisacomingfundraiserhostedbySen.BayhandformerGov.JoeKernan.Butsheneedsacrediblerunningmate,adazzlingconvention,andabsoluteevidenceofaunifyingDemocraticParty.Atthispoint,thereisnoevi-denceofanyofthat. Let’sdealwiththeWaterman-Jehlticket.WhenHPIbrokethenewsthatStateSen.JohnWatermanmightentertheraceasanindependent,itwasworthcoveringbecauseinatightraceevenakookycandidatelikeWatermantaking a sliver of the vote (1 to 2 percent) could have an impact.WithRonPaulvotersandanotherpotentlittlesliverwantingtorepealpropertytaxes,someobserversthoughtWatermanmightinchintothe5to8percentrange.Thatwould definitely be an impact candidacy. But when Water-manannouncedhewasgoingtorunwithGlennaJehl,anynotionofcredibilitydrainedoutoftheeffort.JehlwascampaignmanageroftheMattKeltyforFortWayneMayorcampaign,arguablytheWORSTpoliticalcampaigneverrunonHoosiersoil.TheonlymajorcampaignthatevencomesclosetothisdisasterwasLinleyPearson’s1992gubernato-rialbidthatwasacompletemeltdownattheRepublicanConvention.Andinthatone,noonegavePearsonanychanceofupsettingGov.EvanBayh.TheWaterman-Jehlticketwasactuallyatthe2008GOPconvention,buthardlyanyone noticed (or cared). WRTV’s Norm Cox told us that after14yearsintheSenate,hisstationhadnoB-rollofWaterman because he never carried any significant legisla-tion.Jehlandherhusband,Steve,“loaned”Kelty$10,000.Another$140,000wasloanedtoKeltybyAllenCountyRighttoLifePresidentFredRost.WhenallthiswasdisclosedafterKeltyupsetNelsonPetersintheprimary,it lead to a complete, utter fiasco that ultimately resulted inKelty’snine-countgrandjuryindictmentoncampaignfinance and perjury charges. Kelty went on to lose a race the GOP figured it had in the bag at the beginning of the year.Jehl’s“management”oftheKeltycampaignbroughtussuchthingsasbirthdaycakeswithouthouses,andarescindedendorsementfromU.S.Rep.MarkSouder.ThisisanutballticketconcoctedbyIndianapolisattorneyJohnR.Price,whoapparentlyseeshimselfasthemanbehindthecurtain.WatermantoldtheSullivanDailyTimeshewillhavethe33,000signaturesneededtogettheticketontheballottoday.Ifhehasthem,thatwillbethehigh-watermarketofthisouthousecampaign.Horse Race Status:LeansDaniels

Indiana Legislative SD13: StateRep.MarlinStutzmandefeatedStateRep.MattBell,formerKosciuskoCountyAuditorSueAnn

Former Bloomington Mayor John Fernan-dez has talked with Thompson about the LG nomination, and while he indicated he wouldn’t run, he didn’t do the Gen. Sherman thing and probably wasn’t at liberty to discuss. (HPI Photo)

Thursday, June 12, 2008Page9

Mitchell,andformerlegislatorBradFoxinthenominationcaucustoreplaceStateSen.RobertMeeks.Stutzmanwononthethirdballot37-23.ItcameafterMeeksandSenateleadershippushedBell.TheStutzmanwinisanotherindi-catorofcantankerouslocalGOPprecinctmentellingtheirleaderstostickitwhenitcomestotellingthemwhattodo(similar to the attorney general race). Stutzman will face bankerFredDemskeintheNovemberelection.“IthinkthefactthatmydistrictliesalmostexclusivelyinsideSen-ateDistrict13isimportantbecauseitmeansthatIhavealreadybeenworkingforamajorportionofthisarea,”StutzmantoldtheFortWayneJournalGazette.“Forgetthepolitical think tanks. Elected officials just need to listen to theirfriendsandneighborstodiscoverthatHoosieringenu-ityworks.” HD52: TheHouseDistrict52caucuswillbeat6:30p.m.June23atWolcottMillsElementarySchool,108E.MyersSt.,Wolcottville.StateRep.MarlinStutzman,whowasnominatedinSD13,saidhewillnotendorseorsupportanyparticularcandidateashispossiblereplacement(FortWayne Journal Gazette). “I think there are some good peo-pletochoosefrom,”Stutzmansaid.NobleCountyCoun-cilmanLesAlligoodofRomeCitysaidhewillruninthecaucus.Heiscompletinghissecondfour-yeartermonthecouncil.IfhewontheHousecaucus,aspotwouldopenonthecountyballot.Theformerstatepolicetrooperisnowaprivateinvestigatorandbailbondsman.“I’vealwaysenjoyedparticipatinginRepublicanPartygovernment,”saidAlligood,whosupportsprivatizinggovernmentserviceifitcansavetaxpayerdollars.LaGrangeCountyCouncilmanSteveMcKowenhasalsothrowninhisnameforconsider-ation.He,likeAlligood,isonthefallballotforre-electiontohis county office. The 38-year-old small-business man owns abakeryandrealestate/auctioncompanyinLaGrangeandlivesinWolcottville.“Ifeelit’simportanttoprovideachoiceforastrongvoiceforourgovernment,”McKowensaid.“It’salsoimperativetocreateapositivebusinessenvironmentinthestateandinnortheastIndiana.”BradFoxofRomeCityalsoisconsideringarun.Heisaformerstaterepresenta-tivewhoservedtheareafrom1980to1992.OtherpossiblecandidateswhodidnotimmediatelyreturncallsWednes-dayincludeKendallvilleCityCouncilmanReganFordandLaGrangeattorneyJeffJames.

Indiana Congressional 3RD CD:Democrat: MichaelMontagano.Re-publican: U.S.Rep,MarkSouder.2006 Results:Souder95,421, Hayhurst (D) 80,357. 2008 Outlook:ACooper&SecrestPollwasleakedshowingSouderwitha55-28percentleadoverMontagano.ItwastakenonApril24-27.) It showed Souder’s fav/unfav at 46/46 percent. It also showedPresidentBushwithanabysmal35percentap-

provalratinginoneofthemostRepublicanHousedistrictsinthenation.Bushcarrieditin2004with68percent.HPIiswatchingthe3rdlikewedidin2006,whenSouderde-featedDr.TomHayhurst54-46percent.Ifit’sinplaynextOctober, it will be a significant Democratic wave is in the making.Inthe13yearshe’sbeeninCongress,Souder’spersonalwealthhasexpandedtoincludeasmallportfolioof stocks and certificates of deposit (Smith, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). His cash or stock assets increased from lessthan$15,000in1995tonearly$148,000lastyear,ac-cording to an annual report all lawmakers must file. Aside fromhis$165,200federalsalary,Souder,R-3rd,reportedalmostnootherincomelastyear.HisDemocraticopponent,MichaelMontagano,hassuspendedhislawcareertocam-paignfulltime.Hereportednoincomethisyearandabout$25,000 from his former law firm last year. Montagano said heandhiswife,Bethany,arelivingonfeesshereceivesasamuseumconsultant. Horse Race Status: LeansSouder

4TH CD: Democrat:NelsAckerson.Re-publican:U.S.Rep.SteveBuyer. 2006 Results:Buyer111,057, Sanders (D) 66,986. 2008 Outlook:Democrat:NelsAckerson.Republican:U.S.Rep.SteveBuyer.2006Results: Buyer 111,057, Sanders (D) 66,986. 2008 Outlook: FormerIndianaDemocraticPartyandJimSchellingerforgovernorcampaigncommunicationsdirectorJenWagnerhasapparentlyjoinedtheAckersoncampaign.BuyerChief-of-StaffMikeCophernoted,“Recentlywehavenoticedadistinctdifferenceintoneoftheircampaign.Ithasbeenmuchmorenegativeandnotasmuchsubstanceashisreleasedpriortohercomingonboard.ItisinterestingthatNelswoulddothiswhenhesayshewantstochangethetoneinWashington.Iamnotsurehowpeopleandlocalswillreacthiscommunicationscomingfromoneofthemostpartisan flame throwers there is. A district that has such a high GOP base needs more finesse that an attack dog.” Horse Race Status: LIKELYBUYER. 9TH CD: Democrat: U.S.Rep.BaronHill.Republican:MikeSodrel.Libertarian: EricSchansberg.2006 Results:Hill110,454,Sodrel100,469,Schansberg9,893.2008 Outlook: SodreltookaimatU.S.Rep.BaronHill’s campaign financial backing on Monday. “In the 2006 election,CongressmanHillsaidweneeded“change.”HeandSpeakerPelosihaveproducedchange,”Sodrelsaid.“Agallon of gas is up by about 70%, the budget deficit is up, taxes are up (and rising), consumer confidence is down, andtheeconomyhasslowedtoacrawl.In2006,hehadayoungmandresseduplikeagaspumpwhilecallingforadebateonenergycosts.Hillboughtgasolineforconstitu-ents (with other peoples’ money). He constantly criticized thehighcostoffuel…hecalleditacrisis.Andnowhewantstochangethesubject.“Ifyouwanttoknowhowmuch“specialinterest”moneywentintoacampaigngotowww.opensecrets.org. Horse Race Status: LEANSHillv

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008Page 10

Viewing the tax revolutionfrom Kokomo City HallBy BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS-Let’stalkaboutgarbage.LakeCountycommissionershopetoturngarbageintoethanol.InKokomo,MayorGregGoodnighthopestosaveatleast25percent,andpossiblymuchmore,byhavingresidentialgarbagepickupononesideofthestreet.Residentsarebeingaskedtotaketheirgarbagetoonesideofthestreet,insteadofjustinfrontoftheirhomes.Itkeepsthepackersfromrunningroutesonthesamestreettwice. “Wethinkwecangodowntothreeorfourroutes,instead of five,” said Kokomo MayorGregGoodnight,whowas first elected last November. “Wewon’tcutitinhalf,butatleast25percent.Wedecidedtodothatinsteadofinstallatrashfee.”AtnearbyLogansport,MayorMikeFincheroptedtoinstitutenewtrashfees. ThesearethetangibleresultsfromthepropertytaxreformsproposedbyGov.MitchDanielsandpassedbytheIndi-anaGeneralAssembly.Withthepropertytaxcaps,manycitiesarefacedwith5to10percentinbudgetreductionsthisyearandmoreinthefuture.Kokomowaslookingatabout5.5to6percent,or$2.2millionovertwoyears. Before passage, there weremayorsandcom-mmissionerswhostateddoomandgloomscenariosforpolice and fire layoffs. The closest to that we’ve seen is MuncieMayorSharonMcShurley,whobeforetakingthestagewithGov.DanielsattheIndianaRepublicanConven-tion last week, floated the idea of privatized or volunteer fire protection for her city. She drew a sharp rebuke from hercitycouncilpresident,butwhatwasunmistakableisthat municipalities are thinking outside the box, the fire-houseandthegarbagepacker.EastChicagoandHammondannouncedtheywouldkeeptheircityjailsopen.LakeCountyannouncedyetanotherhiringfreeze.EastChicago,perhapsIndiana’smostlardedpatronageredoubt,pink-slipped 75 employees, though no cops nor firefighters. Thereisalsothepoliticalfallout,possiblyforGov.Daniels,whencountiesandcitiesbeginhashingouttheirannualbudgetsinAugustandSeptember.HPIspeculatedaboutthepotentialfor“chaos,”butsofartherehasbeen

littlehysteria.Andthisdespitesomeconsiderableangst.GaryMayorRudyClaymetwiththegovernor’sstaffonMonday,preparingtheSteelCitytoemergeasoneofthefirst “distressed units.” Daniels warned distressedunitsnottocometotheyet-to-beappointedcommissionbelievingitwillsimplybebusinessasusualevenifitweretodrawsomekindofcapexemption.Clayappearstohavegraspedtheconceptashelooksatcapswipingawayathirdofhisoperatingbudget.“Weplacedsomeissuesonthetablethattheywerenotfamiliarwith,”ClaytoldthePost-Tribune.“We’re

goingtodosomecreativethings.Alotofcreativethings.We’renotbeyondbudgetcuts.” Thosekindsofcommentswouldbemusictothegovernor’sears.TheLakeCountySolidWasteManage-mentDistrictisexpectedtoapprove20-yearcontractsonJune19withGenahol-Powers1andIndianaEtha-nolPower,twocompanieslookingtoconvertLakeCounty’sgarbageintoethanol,thePost-Tribunereported. KokomoMayorGoodnightsaidthatthecouncillaidsomeoftheground-worklastyearwhenitpassedtheLocalOptionIncomeTaxthatDan-iels,SpeakerPatBauerandSenatePresidentDavidLongurged.Itturnedovercityparksoutsidesomeoftheunitlimitstotownships.ItisintalkswithHowardCountyaboutcombiningthe two police/fire dispatch centers.

Hehastrimmedthecityworkforcethroughattritionandnothiringassistantparksandpersonneldepartmentheads.There is a hiring freeze and flat-lined salaries for himself anddepartmentheads.Kokomoisreviewingitscushyhealth and benefits package. Instead of 105 cops, there are now 103. He’s worked with the FOP, firefighters and AFSCMEunions“totryandeducatethem.Theirleadershipunderstandthechallenge.” Of the one pass insteadoftwobythegarbagepackersoneachstreet,Goodnightsaidtherewasover-whelming compliance with the first 600 to 800 homes reachedbypackerswhenthestrategybeganonMonday.Letterswillbesenttothosenotcomplying.Hewillinstituteacurbsiderecyclingprogramandaskresidentstoseparatetheirgarbage.Healsoplanstoannexabout15,000newresidentsinunincorporatedneighborhoods.Therehasbeenanegativepublicreaction.butatameetingintheTimberValleysubdivisionwithabout150homes,ahearingwasheldand150non-residentswerebarredfromentering.Hesaidtalkswith60to70residentsstartedwith“averyvocal

Newly-elected Kokomo Mayor Greg Goodnight has a front porch chat. He’s asking residents to put their garbage on one side of the street to reduce routes. (Goodnight campaign photo)

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008Page 11

The Mitch & Jill TwinsBy MORTON J. MARCUS INDIANAPOLIS-LastnightIhadastressfuldream.Insteadofbeingthewell-integratedpersonalitythatIam,inmydreamIamtwins.Onetwinisanadvisoroneco-nomicmattersforGovernorMitchDanielsandtheotherservesinthesamecapacityforchallengerJillLong-Thomp-son.Eachtwinplowsthrougheconomicdata.Hespinsstatisticsthatmakethefavoredcandidate’sargumentslook

good.ThetwinforMitchargueshowwellIndiana’seconomyisperforming;thetwinworkingforJillmakessureourstate’seconomyisseenintheworstpossiblelight.Inthedream,thelatestdataforGrossDomesticProductforIndi-ana (GDP-IN) are released and the twinsrushtodownloadthemandstartthespin.GDP-INisthevalueofallgoodsandservicesproducedinthestateinaparticularyear;the

latestdataarefor2007.TheymeasurethemagnitudeofeconomicactivityinthestateandtelluswhatoureffortsareworthtotherestoftheU.S.andtheworld. Jill’s twin finds “Indiana’s GDP grew by only 0.3% in2007.Thisveryslowgrowthputusinsolepossessionof 44th place among the fifty states. The U.S. growth rate wastwopercent,nearlyseventimesfasterthanIndiana.” Mitch’s twin returnsthat“theGreatLakestates(Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin) came in deadlastamongthenation’seightregions.Theregionalgrowthratewas0.5%,justawhiskeraheadofIndiana’s0.3%.Weshouldn’tbelievethatwecanseparateour-selvesfromtheproblemswesharewithourneighbors.” Thisopeningexchangesetsthestagefortheremainderofthedream.Mytwoselvesarenowplayingping-pong.Jill’stwinhitsaforcefulshot.“Weacknowl-edgethatIndiana’sproblemshavebeenlongterm,butthereisnoevidencethatthingsaregettingbetter.From1997to2002,Indiana’sGDPgrewatanaverageannual

rate of 2.16% (31st in the nation). In the past five years, 2002to2007,Indiana’annualgrowthratewascutinhalfand slipped to 1.08% (48th place). “Typicalofthenay-sayers,”saysMitch’stwin.“YoufailtoseeIndiana’sremarkableperformanceagainstter-rible odds. During both of those five year intervals, when Democratswereincontrolalmostallofthoseyears,Indi-ana out-performed the five Great Lake states. You need torecognizethatIndiana,whileweak,remainsapositiveforceinatroubledregion.” Suddenly, as will happenindreams,thematchshiftstoatenniscourt.ThetwininJill’scampservesanace:“Indianaranked44thinthenationinaccelerationofgrowthbetweenthosetwoperiods,1997to2002and2002to2007.Alternatively,wesloweddownby1.1%whiletheU.S.deceleratedbyjust0.2%.Whenwillsomeoneputthebreaksonthisseveredownhillslide?” Nowserving,thetwinworkingwithMitchburnsthecourtwith,“Again,youmissthepoint.LookattheshareofGDP produced in the five Great Lake states: 16.6% in 1997 and14.2%in2007.Thatdoesn’tsoundlikemuchofachange,butthe2.4%lossoftheGreatLakesexceedsthegainsoftheSoutheastern,RockyMountain,andFarWestregionscombined. “The economy of our extendedregion,fromPennsylvaniatoMissouri,fromWisconsintoKentuckyistheweakestintheU.S.ThatexplainswhyanyIndianagov-ernorcelebrateseventhesmallestachievements.Wearebattlingforsurvivalinaneconomicwhirlpool.” Jill’stwinsendsalobdeepintoMitch’scourt.“Shouldwebecomparingourselvestootherplacesthatarelosers?Maybeweshouldthinkintermsofsuccessandformulateplansthatseparateusfromtheproblemsofourneighbors.That’swhatwe’lldo.” Mitch’stwinsendsbackablisteringshot.“That’swhatwehavebeendoing,ifyouhadpaidattention.” Icouldn’ttakeanymoretruthandmademyselfwakeup.v

Mr. Marcus is an independent economist formerly with IU’s Kelley School of Business.

minority,butafterthemeeting,betterthanhalfwerewithus.” Asked to comment ontheoverallcontextofthepropertytaxrevolutionandMainStreetresults,Goodnightsaid,“It’snottheendoftheworld.Wehadtheforesightwiththecityandcountyworkingtopassthelocaloptionincometax.Thatsoftenedtheblow.Wemayhavetodosomeofthosethingslikeworkingwithunionstonotcutservices,notcutpersonnel.Idon’tknowwhatwillhappenafterthenegotiationprocess.Wecouldhavesomeofthoselayoffs.”

GoodnightisaDemocratandaunionguyhimself.Buthebroughtinacontrollerandpersonneldirectorfromthe prviate sector. “What I’ve figured out in this job in the first month is if I do nothing, it’s the easiest job around. Buttryanddowhat’sright...it’stougher.” TobeasuccessfulHoosiermayorinthisclimate,youneedtobeaninnovator,anegotiator,preachinglogic,andstewardship,llwithapenchantforcompromise.Anditdoesn’thurtifyoucanthinkoutsidethebox,outsidethegarbagetruck.Somecitieswillgetitandprosper.Thosethatdon’twillwither.v

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008Page 12

Sylvia Smith,FortWayneJournalGazette-SylviaSmith,FortWayneJournalGazette:IstheDickCheneymodelofthevicepresidencysomethingotherpresidentsshouldadopt?Idon’tmeanaNo.2whoknowshowtomakeajokeaboutincestinWestVirginiaandthenlaughinglyremarksthatyoucan’tsaythosesortsofthingsatamicrophoneinfrontofdozensofjournalistsandTVcameras if you’re running for re-election. (Duh.) The model I’mreferringtoistheoneofavicepresidentwhomakesitclearfromtheoutsetthatheorshehasnopoliticalambi-tionsbeyondtheendofthetermortwothatthepresidentwillbeintheWhiteHouse.Cheneydescribeditthiswaylastweek:“Frommyperspective,Ihadanobligation–andIthinkit’sworkedwell–tonotbeconsumedwithtryingtousethejobinordertoadvancemyownpoliticalinterests.ThatmypeoplehadtolookatwhatadviceIgavebaseduponwhatIthoughtwasbesttodo,ratherthanhowitwasgoingtoaffecttheIowacaucuses,forexample.”Therearescantrulesforthevicepresidency.TheConstitution,forinstance,mentionstheoffice a handful of times: to say the vice president is also thepresidentoftheSenate(withoutavoteexcepttobreakties); to say the Senate president pro tem presides when thevicepresidentisabsent;tosaythevicepresidentiselectedwiththepresidentandstepsinifthepresidentdies,isremovedorisincapacitated;andtosaythevicepresidentcanbeimpeached.LastyearDanQuayletoldtheWashing-tonPostofhisconversationwithCheneybeforeinaugura-tionday2001:“Isaid,‘Dick,youknow,you’regoingtobedoingalotofthisinternationaltraveling,you’regoingtobedoingallthispoliticalfundraising...you’llbegoingtothefunerals.’Imean,thisiswhatvicepresidentsdo.Isaid,‘We’vealldoneit.’”Cheney“gotthatlittlesmile,”QuayletoldthePostandquotedCheney’sreply:“Ihaveadiffer-entunderstandingwiththepresident.”QuaylesaidthatagreementwasthatCheneywouldbesurrogatechiefofstaff.TheCheney-styleveepprovidesakindoffreedomforeveryone:Thepresident,thevicepresidentandtheirstaffs.AsJohnMcCainandBarackObamachoosetheirrunningmates,thepublicwillcompare–rightly,inmyview–thosechoicestothecurrentoccupantofthevicepresidency.Chancesare,thepersonwhomovesintothemansiononthegroundsoftheNavalObservatorynextJanuary(wherethe vice president’s home is located) will not be asked to or inclinedtofollowtheCheneymodel.v

Gary Gerard, Warsaw Times-Union:Wellthen,itappearsBarackObamawillbethenomineefortheDemocratsandwillrunagainstJohnMcCaininthegeneralelectionthisNovember.Formonthsnow,I’velistenedtoObamatalkaboutchange.ButwillthemostliberalmemberoftheUnitedStatesSenatereallybringuschange?From

whatI’veheard,hewantstobringusapileofbudget-bustingnewprograms,fromhealthcaretoeducationandbeyond. And how to pay for all this? Well, first, we need toeliminatesomeofthosehorribletaxcuts.That’snotchange.That’swhateveryliberalpoliticiansincetheNewDealhasdone.Showmethechange.v

Mark Bennett, Terre Haute Tribune-Star:Americachanged.Forthepastyear,thosequestionsgotbeatenaround—“Isthecountryreadyforawoman

president?”and“Isthecountryreadyforablackpresident?”Unless21st-centuryAmericansrejectthefoundationsthisnationrestsupon,particu-larlythebeliefthatwe’reallcreatedequal,thenofcoursethecountryis“ready.”Thehistoricprimaryseasonprovedthatawoman,HillaryClinton,andablackman,BarackObama,couldsuccessfullypursueamajor-partynomina-tionforpresident.Whentheprimariesended

lastweek,ObamahadedgedClintonastheDemocraticParty’spresumptivenominee.Theirduelattractedrecordvoterturnouts.Manyofthosemillionsweresimply“ready”forBarackObamaorHillaryClintontobecomepresident.Thisfall,thequestionshouldbe,“IsthecountryreadyforObamaorRepublicanJohnMcCaintobepresident?”IsthenationreadyforObama’splantoredeployU.S.troopsoutofIraqandstrengthenforcesinAfghanistan,orMcCain’splantokeeptheU.S.militaryinIraquntiltheIraqiscansecuretheirlandbythemselves?IsthenationreadyforMcCain’sorObama’seconomicproposals?WhichguyhasthebestchanceofsteeringtheU.S.awayfromitsforeignoildependency?Suchimportantquestionsmake“Isthecountryreadyforablackpresident?”seemsoridiculouslyun-American.v

Mike Smith, Associated Press:Gov.MitchDanielsendedhiskeynoteaddressattheRepublicanStateConventiononapositivenotelastweekby,well,urgingthepartyfaithfultostaypositiveduringthemarchtoNovem-ber.“Let’sgowinbigandlet’sdoittherightway,justlikethelasttime,”hesaidtoabout1,800stateGOPdelegates.“Let’sbepositive,nodisparagementofanybody’scharacterormotives.”ButdidDanielsdeliverthatmessagehav-ingalreadytakentheglovesoffjustminutesbeforeinhisspeech?ThisiswhatDanielshadtosayaboutstateDemo-cratsbeforeaskingfellowRepublicanstotakethehighroadduringthegeneralelectioncampaignseason:“Nowouropponentsinthisstatearegoodpeople,”hesaid.“Theyaregoodparents,theyaregoodneighbors,theyareHoosierslikeus,buttheyarenotasagroupgoodatgoverningIn-diana.Theywerenotinthose16wildernessyearsgoodforthisstate.”v

Monroe,Morgan,VermillionandVigo.

Daniels coordinatingrelief effort EVANSVILLE-Stategovern-mentswungintoactionasarecord-shattering flood poured into South-westernIndianathisweek(EvansvilleCourier & Press). The most visible examplesare1,300IndianaNationalGuardsoldiersandairmenhelpingsandbagrivercommunitiessuchasElnoraandHazleton.Atleast11otherstategovernmentagencies,ornearly400peopleinadditiontotheGuard,are directly involved in flood rescue, reliefandprotection.ThoseincludeDepartmentofNaturalResourcesconservation officers in boats who helpevacuations,andDepartmentofCorrectionprisonerswholaysandbagsfromtheDepartmentofTransportationstockpile.Otheragenciesarepost-ing advice to flood victims on how to obtainrelief,andthatinformationisallcollectedonastateWebsite,www.in.gov/gov/3725.htm.Directlysuper-visingthereliefeffortisGov.MitchDaniels,whoonMondaycanceledalong-plannedeconomicdevelopmenttriptoJapansohecouldremaininIndiana.Whileinspectingstormdam-ageWednesdayinHope,DanielssaidhegotaphonecallfromPresidentBush,whoisinItalyforadiplomaticconference.Bushcalled“simplytoinquireabouthowHoosierswereget-tingthroughthis,andtoaskme—asI have asked local officials — was his levelofgovernmentdoingallitcantosupportushereandtocooperatewithus?Itoldhim,‘Sofar,sogood,’”Danielssaid.

Feltman carries onwithout Daniels in Japan TOKYO-WithGov.MitchDaniels’travelplansredirectedbywretchedweekendweather,thetaskofleadingIndiana’sfourthJapanesetrademissioninasmanyyearsfellto

anexperiencedpinchhitter(Times of Northwest Indiana). “The gover-norhadplannedtobehere,andthennatureintervened.ButI’mhappytocarryon,”IndianaCommerceSecre-taryNathanFeltmansaidWednesdaymorningfromTokyo.“SofarI’veal-readymetwithcompaniesthatcollec-tivelyrepresentover10,000jobsinIn-diana,andbytheendoftheweekI’llhavemetwithcompaniesthatrepre-sentover20,000jobsinIndiana.”Felt-man,whoalsoservesasCEOoftheIndianaEconomicDevelopmentCorp.,finished a round of phone interviews withIndianareportersjustbeforetheclockstruck11p.m.inJapan’scapitalcity.Earlierintheday,hevisitedwithtopexecutivesofNipponSteelCorp.TheJapanesecompany,aproducerofgalvanizedsteelproducts,recentlyreachedanewpartnershipwithAr-celorMittalthatisexpectedtocreate100NipponjobsincentralIndianaandpreserve400MittalpositionsinEastChicagoandBurnsHarbor.Nippon’splantoinvest$240millionatitsI/NKotefacilityinNewCarlisledrew$4.9millioninstateincentives.

Sony to expandat Terre Haute

TERREHAUTE-SonyCorp.willcreate85newjobswhileinvest-ing$113milliontoexpandthenearly1million-square-footBlu-raydiscmanufacturingTerreHauteplant,saidIndianaSecretaryofCommerceNathanFeltmantoday(Terre Haute Tribune-Star). Feltman said the stateinkedadealat11a.m.inToyko,whichis13hoursaheadofTerreHaute. It was part of a five-day Japa-nesetrademission.Gov.MitchDanielsdidnotmakethetripbecauseofcon-cerns of flooding and storm damage in Indiana.TheIndianaEconomicDevel-opmentCorp.offeredSonyDADCupto$655,000intraininggrantsandupto$975,000inperformancebasedtaxcredits.

Jehl calls candidacya ‘trial balloon’ FORTWAYNE-GlennaJehlsaidsheranintocentralIndianaattor-neyJohnPriceatthestateRepublicanconventionseveralweeksago,andheaskedwhethershewouldbeinterestedinhelpingtochallengeDanielsandLongThompson.Pricerepresentsseveralcitizengroupsop-posingpropertytaxes(Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). Jehl agreed to puthernameonthepetitionssotheycouldbecirculatedtoseewhetherthereisenoughsupportforathird-partycandidate.“Iconsideritatrialballoonrightnow,”shesaid,notingthatshealsosupportspropertytaxchangebutthatsheandWatermanhave not finalized a full platform. Jehl isagraduateoftheUniversityofNotreDameandaformerhomemakerwhonowhelpssellcommercialrealestateinabusinesswithherhusband.

Bush approves 8counties for aid WASHINGTON-Hoosierswillbeabletobeginseekinggovernmentassistancetorebuildtheirlivesevenbefore the last of this week’s flood-watershavedriedup(Indianapolis Star). Gov. Mitch Daniels’ office said lateWednesdaythatitlearnedPresi-dent Bush had approved the first eight counties,includingMarion,forfederalassistancefordamagefromsevereweatherthatbeganMay30.“Now,that’sfastaction.Ihopeitisindicativeofhowfasttherestofthisprocesscanmove,”Danielssaidinastatement.InadditiontoMarion,countiescoveredbythepresident’sapprovalWednesdayareBartholomew,Hancock,Johnson,

HOWEY Politics Indiana Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 12, 2008Page 13