Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

Risk Meeting Alamty 2

CA-DRM ElementsComponent 1 Develop Climate Risk

Assessment MethodologyComponent 2 Testing the methodology

developed in a select CA countryComponent 3 Develop recommendations

for Climate Change Risk Management Planning in the pilot country

Component 4 Knowledge Sharing and Communication

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 3

Disaster Risk

Managem

entVariability

Change

Society

Exposure

Climate

Risk

Vulnerabilit

y

Climate Change

Managem

ent

Weather and Climate Events

Oct 12

Outcom

e

Managem

ent

Risk Meeting Alamty 4

CA CRA Overview Core

Approaches

Core Elements

Outcome-based assessment of climate events

Perception-based assessment of climate outcome consequences and management options

Risk (vulnerability) for a specific combination of hazard intensity at a location (exposure) and vulnerability (sensitivity) in monetary value of expected physical damage per capita for an event of a specific frequency (exposure)

Hazard impact defined by historical damage

Vulnerability (sensitivity) defined by outcomes for six areas of livelihoods ldquocapitalsrdquo

Risk management preferences on the part of at-risk populations

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 6

Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events

Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models

Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters

ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only

partial data

The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard

Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk

Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 7

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 8

Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data

processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has

advantages in understanding risk management preferences

How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)

Some skills and training needed

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 9

Out

puts

Inp

uts

Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110

yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative

Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized

Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key

results More extensive report annexed to the main report

Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on

Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs

Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations

Oct 12

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 2

CA-DRM ElementsComponent 1 Develop Climate Risk

Assessment MethodologyComponent 2 Testing the methodology

developed in a select CA countryComponent 3 Develop recommendations

for Climate Change Risk Management Planning in the pilot country

Component 4 Knowledge Sharing and Communication

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 3

Disaster Risk

Managem

entVariability

Change

Society

Exposure

Climate

Risk

Vulnerabilit

y

Climate Change

Managem

ent

Weather and Climate Events

Oct 12

Outcom

e

Managem

ent

Risk Meeting Alamty 4

CA CRA Overview Core

Approaches

Core Elements

Outcome-based assessment of climate events

Perception-based assessment of climate outcome consequences and management options

Risk (vulnerability) for a specific combination of hazard intensity at a location (exposure) and vulnerability (sensitivity) in monetary value of expected physical damage per capita for an event of a specific frequency (exposure)

Hazard impact defined by historical damage

Vulnerability (sensitivity) defined by outcomes for six areas of livelihoods ldquocapitalsrdquo

Risk management preferences on the part of at-risk populations

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 6

Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events

Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models

Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters

ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only

partial data

The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard

Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk

Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 7

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 8

Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data

processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has

advantages in understanding risk management preferences

How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)

Some skills and training needed

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 9

Out

puts

Inp

uts

Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110

yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative

Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized

Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key

results More extensive report annexed to the main report

Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on

Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs

Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations

Oct 12

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 3

Disaster Risk

Managem

entVariability

Change

Society

Exposure

Climate

Risk

Vulnerabilit

y

Climate Change

Managem

ent

Weather and Climate Events

Oct 12

Outcom

e

Managem

ent

Risk Meeting Alamty 4

CA CRA Overview Core

Approaches

Core Elements

Outcome-based assessment of climate events

Perception-based assessment of climate outcome consequences and management options

Risk (vulnerability) for a specific combination of hazard intensity at a location (exposure) and vulnerability (sensitivity) in monetary value of expected physical damage per capita for an event of a specific frequency (exposure)

Hazard impact defined by historical damage

Vulnerability (sensitivity) defined by outcomes for six areas of livelihoods ldquocapitalsrdquo

Risk management preferences on the part of at-risk populations

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 6

Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events

Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models

Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters

ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only

partial data

The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard

Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk

Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 7

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 8

Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data

processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has

advantages in understanding risk management preferences

How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)

Some skills and training needed

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 9

Out

puts

Inp

uts

Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110

yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative

Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized

Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key

results More extensive report annexed to the main report

Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on

Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs

Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations

Oct 12

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 4

CA CRA Overview Core

Approaches

Core Elements

Outcome-based assessment of climate events

Perception-based assessment of climate outcome consequences and management options

Risk (vulnerability) for a specific combination of hazard intensity at a location (exposure) and vulnerability (sensitivity) in monetary value of expected physical damage per capita for an event of a specific frequency (exposure)

Hazard impact defined by historical damage

Vulnerability (sensitivity) defined by outcomes for six areas of livelihoods ldquocapitalsrdquo

Risk management preferences on the part of at-risk populations

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 6

Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events

Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models

Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters

ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only

partial data

The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard

Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk

Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 7

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 8

Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data

processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has

advantages in understanding risk management preferences

How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)

Some skills and training needed

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 9

Out

puts

Inp

uts

Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110

yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative

Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized

Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key

results More extensive report annexed to the main report

Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on

Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs

Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations

Oct 12

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 5Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 6

Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events

Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models

Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters

ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only

partial data

The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard

Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk

Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 7

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 8

Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data

processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has

advantages in understanding risk management preferences

How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)

Some skills and training needed

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 9

Out

puts

Inp

uts

Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110

yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative

Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized

Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key

results More extensive report annexed to the main report

Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on

Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs

Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations

Oct 12

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 6

Collecting Disaster DataThe Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events

Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models

Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters

ChallengesOnly covers reported disastersNot necessarily good predictor of future disastersReports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities or include only

partial data

The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard

Advantages ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk

Challenges mdash Is not quick or easy to completemdash Needs considerable time and resources

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 7

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 8

Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data

processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has

advantages in understanding risk management preferences

How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)

Some skills and training needed

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 9

Out

puts

Inp

uts

Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110

yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative

Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized

Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key

results More extensive report annexed to the main report

Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on

Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs

Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations

Oct 12

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 7

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 8

Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data

processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has

advantages in understanding risk management preferences

How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)

Some skills and training needed

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 9

Out

puts

Inp

uts

Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110

yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative

Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized

Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key

results More extensive report annexed to the main report

Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on

Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs

Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations

Oct 12

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 8

Risk Perception AssessmentIndividual or focus group process20 questions ndash can be increasedTarget ndash 30 minute session quick data

processing ldquoWillingness to payrdquo ndash new an approach has

advantages in understanding risk management preferences

How to do the survey (Can even be done on web)

Some skills and training needed

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 9

Out

puts

Inp

uts

Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110

yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative

Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized

Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key

results More extensive report annexed to the main report

Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on

Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs

Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations

Oct 12

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 9

Out

puts

Inp

uts

Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazardfrequencyoutcome combinations (eg flooding110

yearscost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative

Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender age health status and other issues summarized

Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results with specific examples highlighting key

results More extensive report annexed to the main report

Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective Focuses on

Reducing the per capital cost of risks starting with the greatest per capita costs

Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations

Oct 12

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

E-atlas data

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Example of vulnerability indicators

Example human vulnerability indicator against flood

Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density)

General indicators Human vulnerability Economic vulnerability

Specific indicator s

By type of hazardsBy type of economic

sectors

Basic data

Hazard data

Vulnerability data

Climate change data

Next step

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 12

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate HazardsType of Capital

Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk PopulationsInsignificant Low Medium High Extreme

Human No negative outcome on health

Temporary negative outcome on health no deaths

Limited short term negative outcome on health few deaths

Extensive negative outcome on health deaths above disaster threshold

Significant negative health outcomes and deaths

Financial No loss income or financial assets

Temporary loss of work

Loss of work extended for several months

Significant loss of work

Near total loss of income and financial assets

Social No need for reliance on social network for support

Occasional reliance on social network for support

Heavy reliance on social network for support for only 1-3 months

More than a year reliance on social network for support

Total reliance on social network for basic needs

Natural No damage to natural resources

Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs

Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs

Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs

No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access

Political Full government engagement in response to event

Minor gaps in government response

Some government assistance but significant unmet needs

Very limited response to event

No government response to event

Apples and Oranges

Oct 12

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 13

Com

parin

g th

e D

iffer

ent

Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 14Oct 12

Human

Financial

Social

Natural

Political

Physical

0

5

S (area of triangle) = frac12 a b sin Angle

Triangle (2 capitals) Area 1 Area 2 Area 3Human-Financial 087 346 087Financial-Social 260 520 173Social-Natural 520 390 087Natural-Physical 173 520 043Physical-Political 173 520 217Political-Human 173 260 217

Tot area 1386 2555 823Rank 2 1 3

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Risk Meeting Alamty 15

ChallengesData

Disasters - access accuracy detailWeather - access accuracy for local conditions

Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links

Is Past Prologue -- Impacts of a Changing Climate

Silos and SynthesisPractical Application

Oct 12

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)

Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-

CRM)

• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment
• CA-DRM Elements
• Slide 3
• CA CRA Overview
• Slide 5
• Collecting Disaster Data
• Slide 7
• Risk Perception Assessment
• OutputsInputs
• E-atlas data
• Example of vulnerability indicators
• Apples and Oranges
• Comparing the Different
• Slide 14
• Challenges
• Central Asia Climate Risk Assessment (2)