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CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS EUROPEAN UNION JANUARY 18, 2018

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Page 1: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE

OCTOBER 2017

CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS

EUROPEAN UNION

JANUARY 18, 2018

Page 2: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Main findings

2

• Growth remained strong, expanding at 7.0 percent in 2016.

It is projected to ease slightly, to 6.8 percent in 2017.

• Clothing & other textile product exports have moderated,

partly offset by gradual emergence of the exports of electrical

machinery, equipment and vehicle parts. The construction boom

is showing signs of easing.

• Efforts to attract international tourists by the authorities

seem to have paid off, with a marked recovery of foreign

tourist arrivals.

• Growth is projected to remain robust, at 6.9 percent in

2018, boosted by export diversification and underpinned by

healthy FDI inflows and improved global outlook.

• Downside risks to this outlook are slowdown in the

Chinese economy and potential election-related uncertainty.

Page 3: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Growth remained strong but is projected toslightly ease in 2017…

3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Jun-17

Steel imports

Other materials for construction

Cooling equipment

Cement

Imports of basic construction materials

have moderated. (y/y % change)

Source: Cambodian authorities.

7.1 7.3 7.47.1 7.0 7.0

6.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017/p

Agriculture Indus-garment & footwearIndus-construction Serv-real estateIndus-others Serv-tradeServ-others Taxes less subsidiesGDP growth

Strong growth continued in

2016...(contribution to growth, percent)

Source: Cambodian authorities.

Page 4: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

…as garment export growth has moderated,although Cambodia’s share in world market hasincreased.

4

1.1

1.21.3

1.5

1.7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cambodia's share in the world’s exports of

textiles and clothing accessories rose. (% of

global trade in HS 61 and 62)

Source: UN Comtrade.

Note: HS = harmonized system

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

6-m

2017

Fabric imports

Clothing and other textile products

Source: Cambodian authorities.

Cambodia's exports of clothing and other

textile products moderated. (y/y % change)

Page 5: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

This is partly offset by gradual emergence ofthe exports of electrical machinery, equipmentand vehicle & parts…

5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Machinery (HS 84)

Electrical (HS 85)

Vehicles & parts (HS 87)

New export products are emerging. (% total

merchandise exports)

Source: UN Comtrade.

Note: the numbers in parentheses are harmonized system (HS)

Rising number (and share) of nontextile and footwear manufacturers in

Cambodia

2012 2017 (Aug)Industrial Classification (ISIC, Rev.

4) Factories

Share

(%) Factories

Share

(%)

Food, Beverages & Tobacco (10-

11-12) 74 8.2 140 8.3

Textile, Wearing Apparel &

Footwear (13-14-15) 673 74.2 1,110 65.5

Paper & Paper Products (17) 17 1.9 46 2.7

Chemical, Rubber and Plastics

(20-22) 60 6.6 124 7.3

Other non-Metallic

Manufacturing (23) 15 1.7 33 1.9

Metallic, Electronic, Electrical,

Machinery, Motor Vehicle, other

Transport Equip (24-25-26-27-28-

29-30) 46 5.1 121 7.1

Furniture (31) 12 1.3 82 4.8

Other Manufacturing (32) 10 1.1 39 2.3

907 100.0 1,695 100.0

Source: Cambodian authorities

Note: International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC), Rev.4

Page 6: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

…while diversification is still incipient,compared to neighboring countries.

6

66

11

1

8

43

44

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Cambodia Vietnam Thailand

Clothing Machines/elect/vehicles (HS 84+85+87) Footwear

Rubber and plastics (HS 39+40) Mineral fuel & meat prep Others

While expanding, Cambodia’s export diversification remains lagged behind

its neighbors (% share, 2016)

Source: UN Comtrade.

Page 7: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Climbing up the manufacturing value chains,however, is challenged by high electricitytariffs and inadequately educated workforce.

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cambodia Philippines Vietnam Myanmar Thailand

cen

ts /

kW

h

Cambodia’s electricity tariff isamong the highest in the region

Large Industry Customers

Residential

Sources: Electricity Authority of Cambodia, 2015; Philippines Energy

Regulatory Commission, 2016; Vietnam Ministry of Industry and Trade,

Decision No. 2256/QD-BCT, 2015; Myanmar Ministry of Electric

Power, 2015; Thailand Energy Regulatory Commission, 2016; De

Ferranti et al., 2016. Latest available data.

0.2

0.6

1.4

1.5

1.6

2.4

3.3

5

6.3

6.7

7.3

7.6

11.7

16.1

28.3

0 10 20 30

Customs and trade regulations

Courts

Tax administration

Labor regulations

Crime, theft and disorder

Electricity

Business licensing and permits

Access to land

Tax rates

Corruption

Transportation

Access to finance

Inadequately educated workforce

Political instability

Practices of the informal sector

2016 2013 2007

Obstacles to firm operation (Percent of firms)

Source: World Bank Group Enterprise Surveys.

Page 8: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Tourism seems to be recovering, led by risingarrivals from China.

8

16.014.9

24.3

17.5

6.96.1

5.0

12.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16

Arrivals by air (% of total) Total visitors (y/y, RHS)

Tourist arrival growth accelerated, driven by

arrival by air

Source: Cambodian authorities.

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-1

1

Ap

r-12

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

Dec

-13

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Aug-1

5

Jan

-16

Jun

-16

No

v-1

6

Ap

r-17

Cambodia

Visitors to Angkor Wat

Angkor Wat remains the main attraction

site, although tourists visiting coastal region

rose to 15% of total arrivals. (3mma, y/y)

Source: Cambodian authorities.

Note: 3mma = 3-month moving average

Page 9: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Modest expansion of rice cultivated areasdue to better weather conditions, while yieldgains remain sluggish.

9

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

2.44

2.46

2.48

2.50

2.52

2.54

2.56

2.58

2.60

2.62

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (Sep)

Wet rice (million ha) planted

Planted area (percent, y/y, RHS)

Rice cultivated areas increased modestly

Source: Cambodian authorities.

Note: Cultivation of rainy season has not completed yet (up to Sep only)

Page 10: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Consumption, earlier fueled by rapid credit growth (and construction boom), has now eased, subduing inflation.

10

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-11

Sep

-11

Feb

-12

Jul-

12

Dec

-12

May

-13

Oct

-13

Mar

-14

Aug-1

4

Jan

-15

Jun

-15

No

v-1

5

Ap

r-16

Sep

-16

Feb

-17

Others Transport sub-index

Food sub-index Housing & utilities sub-index

Y/Y

Inflation declined as food prices moderated

with easing demand. Contribution to 12-

month inflation (percent)

Source: Cambodian authorities.

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Credit to private sector

Inflation (RHS)

Credit (which fueled consumption) growth

has decelerated. (Y/Y, % change)

Source: Cambodian authorities.

Page 11: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Continued good revenue collection containeddeficit as rising wage was offset by decliningpublic investment.

11

6.4 7.3 8.27.0 7.0 6.3

4.9 3.9

2.42.4

2.62.1 2.1

1.9 2.52.4

4.84.4

4.3

4.6 5.0 5.7 6.3 7.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e

External fin capital Gov't-financed capital

Wage Non-wage

NSDP (required capital)

… as outlay remained contained with rising

wages being offset by declining capital (percent

of GDP)

Sources: Cambodian authorities and World Bank staff estimates.

Note: e = estimates; NSDP = National Strategic Development Plan

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e

Revenue Expenditures Fiscal balance

Fiscal deficit continued to gradually

decline… (percent of GDP)

Sources: Cambodian authorities and World Bank staff estimates.

e = estimates

Page 12: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Budgetary dependency on external financingreduced, but Chinese is now the largestcreditor.

12

China, 2,818 , 48%

Japan, 208 , 3%

South Korea, 280 , 5%

Other bilateral, 181

, 3%

Old debt, 635 , 11%

ADB, 1,129 , 19%

WB, 518 , 9%

Other multilateral,

94 , 2%

China became Cambodia's largest

creditor. Outstanding debt by creditor (US$

Source: Cambodian authorities

35.8

32.3 32.7

29.1

23.9

18.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

External finance (% of total public outlay)

Sources: Cambodian authorities and World Bank staff estimates

Cambodia's dependency on external

financing has significantly reduced, thanks to

increased collection.

Page 13: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Rising private and public savings may bemobilized for productive pro-poor and pro-growth investment.

13

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Cambodia Philippines Malaysia

Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Cambodia's domestic saving is rising but

remains relatively low. Gross domestic saving

(% of GDP)

Source: World Development Indicators, the World Bank

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

2013 2014 2015 2016 June 2017

Government deposits at the banking

system has increased. (Percent of GDP)

Source: Cambodian authorities

Page 14: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

While exports remained solid, imports ofvehicles and fuels eased (with moderate creditgrowth)…

14

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Jun-17

Passenger cars Diesel Gasoline Motocycles

Imports of durable goods and petroleum

products declined with easing domestic

demand. (YTD, Y/Y % change)

Source: Cambodian authorities.

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cambodia's export share in percent of

global trade rose. (% of global trade)

Source: UN Comtrade.

Page 15: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

…improved confidence boosted FDI andreserves buildup as the current account deficitnarrowed.

15

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Overall external position improved

thanks to solid exports and lackluster

imports. (% of GDP)

Sources: Cambodian authorities and World Bank staff estimates.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Dec

-09

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Riel in circulation Riel deposits Foreign currency deposits

Contribution to broad money growth

accelerated, driven by rising FCD.

Contribution to M2 growth (in percent)

Source: Cambodian authorities.

Page 16: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Credit growth eased, returning to a moresustainable path with introduction of macro-prudential measures (and market conditions).

16

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Jan

-05

Oct

-05

Jul-

06

Ap

r-07

Jan

-08

Oct

-08

Jul-

09

Ap

r-10

Jan

-11

Oct

-11

Jul-

12

Ap

r-13

Jan

-14

Oct

-14

Jul-

15

Ap

r-16

Jan

-17

GIR (current, million USD)

GIR in months of imports (RHS)

Gross foreign reserves rapidly accumulated

on the back of healthy FDI inflows.

Source: Cambodian authorities.

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Dec

2010

Dec

2011

Dec

2012

Dec

2013

Dec

2014

Dec

2015

Dec

2016

Jun

2017

PS deposits Credits to PS

Credit growth has eased, while deposit

growth has edged up. (YTD, y/y %

change)

Source: Cambodian authorities.

Note: YTD = Year-to-date

Page 17: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Riel in circulation rose, while interest rates ofriel denominated loans (and deposits)declined without pressuring exchange rate.

17

3900

3950

4000

4050

4100

4150

4200

4250

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Dec

-06

Jun

-07

Dec

-07

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Dec

-09

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Jun

-17

Riel in circulation (percentage point)

Riel/US$ exchage rate (SA, RHS)

LPCO (and 10% of riels in loan portfolio) may

have contributed to rising riel in circulation.

Contribution by riel in circulation to M2 growth

and riel/US$ exchange rate.

Source: Cambodian authorities and World Bank staff computation.

Note: LPCO=Liquidity Providing Collateralized Operation; SA = Seasonally

Adjusted; RHS = Right-Hand Scale

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Dec

-06

Jun

-07

Dec

-07

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Dec

-09

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Dec

-16

Lending rate

Deposit rate

Short-term interest rates of riel

denominated loans (and deposits)

declined, thanks to the initiative to promote

riel and interest rate cap. (% per annum)

Source: The Cambodian authorities.

Page 18: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Credits to the non-tradeable sectors(construction, real estate and mortgage),however, remains strong.

18

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun

-10

Sep

-10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun

-11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Jun

-12

Sep

-12

Dec

-12

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Construction, estate & mortg Manufacturing Wholesale & retail

Hotels and Restaurants Others Agriculture

Total

Credits going the non-tradeable sectors remain strong, while those to the

tradeable sectors have shrunk. Contribution to credit growth by business

Source: Cambodian authorities.

Page 19: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

The growth outlook in the medium termremains favorable

19

CAMBODIA: KEY INDICATORS

2016 2017p 2018f 2019f

Output and Prices

Real GDP (% change, yoy) 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.7

CPI (annual avg, % change yoy) 3.5 2.9 3.2 3.5

Public Sector (% of GDP)

General govt domestic revenues 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.8

General government expenditures 21.4 23.0 23.8 23.9

Overall fiscal balance excluding grants -3.0 -4.5 -5.3 -5.1

BOP and External Debt

Current account balance 3/ -2,041.4 -2,106.4 -2,222.5 -2,382.4

(% GDP) -10.2 -9.6 -9.2 -8.9

Foreign direct investment 2,164.4 2,418.8 2,662.3 2,853.7

External debt 6,522.4 7,427.6 8,551.3 9,535.9

(% GDP) 32.6 33.8 35.3 35.7

Debt service ratio (% exports of g&s) 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2

Foreign exchange reserves, gross 6,730.8 8,175.4 9,594.3 9,144.7

(months of imports) 5.7 6.3 6.8 5.8

Financial Markets

Domestic credit (Net, % change yoy) 25.8 16.5 15.2 20.8

Short-term interest rate (% p.a.) 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.2

Exchange rate (Riel/US$, annual average) 4,058.0 4,062.0 4,067.0 4,075.0

Memo: Nominal GDP (millions US$) 20,020.2 21,985.2 24,216.2 26,690.5

Sources: Cambodian authorities, IMF and World Bank staff estimates and projection

Page 20: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

• Nurturing export diversification by adoptingcost-effective/competitive electricity tariffs.Identifying skills gaps to design courses andprograms that address such gaps, leveraging the2017-25 TVET Policy.

• Further facilitating investment, especiallyinto the tradable sector. This would requirefrom reforms aimed at making it easier forcompanies to start a business, reducing fess andother costs, and improving connectivity.

• Improving access to markets and tourismsupply chains by remote farmers will help asrural households hit by low agricultural prices.Closely monitoring the potential negative impactsof the slowdown of the textile and constructionsectors.

20

Structural reforms to support economictransformation and industrialization

Page 21: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Cambodia’s tourism sector: maximizing potential

21

Page 22: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

“Cambodia’s tourism sector: maximizingpotential” – key findings

22

• Tourism is labor-intensive, and Cambodia hasbenefited substantially from the rapid expansionmore than regional peers.

• Asian tourists the largest market (two thirds).China and Vietnam combined accounting for morethan a third of total arrivals.

• Average daily spending and length of staydeclined. Large potential remains as Cambodiareceived only small fraction, 2.4 percent (in 2015).1

• Limited success in diversifying tourismproducts and destinations, while leakages arehigh.

1Note: Of 200 million tourists recorded in 2015, China received 29% (#4), Thailand 15.2% (#11), Malaysia 13.1% (#14).

Page 23: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Tourism receipt, contributed mainly by Asia(China contributed more half of the increase in2016) and Europe.

23

Contribution to tourist arrivals growth by country of

origin during last six years (percent)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Asia 80.1 84.1 83.7 84.6 84.2 62.0

Vietnam 26.7 23.1 20.0 19.6 20.9 -11.6

China 18.6 14.5 16.8 19.2 25.5 56.0

Lao PDR 9.7 15.0 18.9 18.4 13.8 -14.9

Thailand -8.7 4.9 4.2 6.5 8.9 19.9

Europe 14.3 11.3 12.3 11.2 10.1 20.4

Americas 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.9 5.1 15.5

Africa 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8

Middle East 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.2

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

Source: Bank staff calculations using the data from Cambodian authorities.

1.4

6.7

10.7 11

12.813.6 13.5 13.5 13.3

12.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

International tourism receipts--direct contribution (% of GDP)

Cambodia (MOT) Cambodia (WTTC)

Thailand (WTTC) Vietnam (WTTC)

China (WTTC)

Source:s Ministry of Tourism (MOT) 2016 & World Travel Tourism Council

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Substantial contribution by tourism to job creationand incomes

24

Jobs generated by tourism sector (2016)

Direct contribution Total contribution

Country Jobs

%

share Jobs

%

share

Cambodia 988,000 11.4 2,252,500 25.9

Lao PDR 118,000 3.7 397,500 12.4

Vietnam 1,959,500 3.6 4,003,000 7.3

Thailand 2,100,000 5.5 5,739,000 15.1

China 23,680,500 3.1 69,527,500 9.0

Source: 2017 World Travel Tourism Council (WTTC)

Tourism’s contribution highlights (latest available

years)

Cam

bo

dia

Lao

PD

R

Th

aila

nd

Vie

t N

am

International visitor

expenditure ($ billion) 2.44 0.69 44.6 8.29

Direct contribution to GDP

(%) 12.2 4.3 9.30 4.6

Tourism investment ($

billion) 0.6 0.6 7.0 5.5

Average expenditure per

visitor ($) 655.5 191.7 1488.9 925.3

Average length of stays

(days/nights) 6.3 4.8 9.8 11.3

Average expenditure per day

($) 92.5 76.5 148.1 126.0

Sources: World Travel & Tourism Council. 2017 and World Tourism Organization

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Average daily spending and length of stay declinedwith decreasing group travellers

25

Average daily spending has declined

2013 2014 2015 2016

Market share FIT GIT FIT GIT FIT GIT FIT GIT

(%) 41.5 58.5 41.5 58.5 23.2 76.8 82.6 15.1

Average expenditure per tourist (in US$)

Accommodation 148.57 N/A 127.5 N/A 129 N/A 125 N/A

Food & beverage 84.42 N/A 119.43 N/A 123.5 N/A 120 N/A

Local transport 80.04 N/A 65 N/A 64.5 N/A 73 N/A

Package tours 983.46 N/A 345 N/A 355 N/A 342.5

Shopping 94.35 180.11 90 120 88.7 118 85 115.4

Others 79.03 101.07 80 100 79.5 101 75.5 95.5

Total 486.4 1,264.6 481.9 565.0 485.2 574.0 478.5 553.4

Average daily

spending 120.76 93.48 95.1 92.5

Source: Annual Tourism Statistics Reports, 2013-16, Ministry of Tourism

FIT: Free Independent Travelers

GIT: Group Inclusive Travelers

Page 26: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

The overall development of the tourism sector isdecelerating

26

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Businessenvironment

Safety & security

Health & hygiene

Human resources& labour market

ICT readiness

Prioritization ofTravel & Tourism

InternationalOpenness

Pricecompetitiveness

Environmentalsustainability

Air transportinfrastructure

Ground and portinfrastructure

Tourist serviceinfrastructure

Natural resources

Cultural resources& business travel

Thailand 2017 Vietnam 2017Cambodia 2017 Cambodia 2015ASEAN 2017

While overall policy & strategy drives the

sector, air and ground transport, cultural

resources and ICT readiness are the

Source: Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index 2015 & 2017

Note: Score varies from 0 (worst) – 7 (best)

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Rooms (y/y % change)

Tourists (y/y % change)

Travel agents' offices (y/y % change)

Growth of tourist arrivals, accommodation

and travel agents is decelerating

Source: Annual tourism statistical reports, Ministry of Tourism

Page 27: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Insufficient connectivity to secondarydestinations although improvements of majornetwork

27

0.3

0.38

0.78

0.67

0.060.11

0.050.1

Cambodia(2014)

Thailand (2009)Vietnam (2009) Philippines(2009)

Road density in selected ASEAN countries

Road Network DensityNR Network Density

Sources: “Overview of Transport Infrastructure Sector in the Kingdom of

Cambodia,” MPWT (2015); and “A Study on National Road (NR)Traffic

Safety Master Plan in the Social Republic of Vietnam Until 2020,” JICA (2009).

46.9

53

36.4

60

53.1

43.1

33.3

70

6.42.4

8.4

70

Share of int'lvisitor arrivals

(n= 4.5million)

Share of int'ltour

campanies (n=604)

Share of hotelroom (n=

32,660)

Hoteloccupancy rate

(%)

Tourism services intensity and international visitor arrivals

Phnom Penh

Siem Reap

Preah Sihanoukville

Sources: Annual Report on Tourism Statistics 2016, Ministry of Tourism &

New Crossroads Asia. 2015

Page 28: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Reducing leakages needs to further enhancetourism receipts

28

Potential Net Income Contributions from Tourism in 2020

Projected

Internationa

l Visitor

Arrivals

Projected

Expenditure

($ billion)

Projected Income

with 24% Foreign

Exchange Leakage

Factor

(U$ billion)

Projected Income

with 18% Foreign

Exchange Leakage

Factor

(U$ billion)

Cambodia 7,000,000 4.503.42 3.69

Lao PDR 4,700,000 0.800.61 0.66

Myanmar 7,500,000 10.107.68 8.28

Viet Nam 10,500,000 19.00 14.44 15.58

Sources: Tourism sector assessment, strategy, and roadmap for Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam (2016-2018), ADB

Page 29: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

“Cambodia’s tourism sector: maximizingpotential”- key messages

29

Developing protected area tourism with high-value products

(wildlife viewing destinations), while high-value services which can be

established around existing products. Developing business and events

tourism in a number of areas

Improving infrastructure and connectivity, given Cambodia’s very

low ranking on ground infrastructure,

Addressing leakages can be initiated by assisting producers (and

providers) of food, crafts, and other local goods (and services) to

access tourism value chains (boosting overall spending in destinations).

Expanding/upgrading skills, while strengthening public-private

partnership. A set of intervention measures could be introduced in

main hubs: Phnom Penh, Siem Reap and Sihanoukville.

Page 30: Cambodia Economic Monitor · 2018-11-26 · CAMBODIA ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2017 CAMBODIA CLIMBING UP THE MANUFACTURING VALUE CHAINS ... Trade balance FDI Current account balance

Working to End Extreme Poverty and Promote Shared Prosperity

THANK YOU

30