CHINAGRO

CHINA : Meat Demand

Diseases and the Vulnerability of Livestock Systems

CHINAGRO

Livestock - BackgroundLivestock - Background• China has largest livestock industry in the world;• Livestock productivity has been below world averages, but

great improvements in many parameters;• Demand for livestock products shows strong increases

with income growth and urbanization level;• What changes in livestock structure will result in response

to changing demand levels and consumer preferences?• Can China feed its animals over the next 30 years or will

massive imports be required?• To what extent can forthcoming livestock management

practices and other efficiency enhancing technologies expand livestock production?

• Will China’s livestock sector be competitive on the world market?

CHINAGRO

China : Meat Demand

Driven by a surging demand for animal products, livestock production is rapidly expanding

Total meat consumption (Mt)

Growth of livestock production concentrates primarily on– periurban regions (close to market, good

infrastructure)

– pig and poultry production

– large specialised farms (often with little land)

CHINAGRO

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lio

ns

Urban

Rural

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

North

Northea

stEas

t

Centra

l

South

South

west

Plateau

Northwes

t

CHINA

2000 2015 2030

Demographic Change and UrbanizationDemographic Change and Urbanization

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lio

ns

0-14

15-64

65+

% Rural

Rural Population

CHINAGRO

Meat Demand by Income - ChinaMeat Demand by Income - China

CHINAGRO

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lio

n t

on

s

Urban

Rural

Urban and Rural Urban and Rural Demand for PorkDemand for Pork..

Urban and Rural Urban and Rural Demand for PoultryDemand for Poultry..

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lio

n t

on

s

Urban

Rural

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

kg per capita

Pigs

Poultry

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

kg per capita

Pigs

Poultry

rural

urban

Pork

Poultry

CHINAGRO

Table 4. Share of output by type of production system, 1996.

1997 Pigs Poultry

Region Traditional Specialized Industrial Traditional Specialized Industrial

North 79.2 11.8 9.0 63.4 27.1 9.5 Northeast 70.4 20.0 9.7 61.8 36.1 2.1

East 73.6 16.2 10.2 49.3 27.3 23.4 Central 82.3 8.1 9.6 58.5 30.9 10.6 South 76.6 12.6 10.7 47.7 35.5 16.8

Southwest 89.0 9.7 1.3 56.6 38.6 4.8 Plateau 92.5 2.2 5.2 92.2 7.8 0.0

Northwest 86.0 7.3 6.7 68.8 22.5 8.7 China 80.9 11.6 7.6 56.6 31.6 11.7

Source: Own calculations based on data from 1996 Agricultural Census and CCAP.

Table 8. Pigs stocks and pork production, by system and economic region, 1997.

Meat by production system Pigs Pork

Industrial Special-

ized Tradit-ional

Product-ivity

10000 1000 t 1000 t 1000 t 1000 t kg/head North 5675 4864 438 572 3854 85.7 Northeast 2255 1916 185 382 1348 85.0 East 3666 3409 349 551 2510 93.0 Central 6010 5192 496 423 4273 86.4 South 4267 3907 419 493 2995 91.6 Southwest 10729 6564 88 635 5841 61.2 Plateau 116 63 3 1 58 54.0 Northwest 2110 1448 97 106 1246 68.6 China 34827 27363 2076 3163 22125 78.6

Source: Own estimates based on data of 1996 Agricultural Census and CCAP (2002).

CHINAGRO

Potential consequences of intensive livestock production on specialised

farmsConsequences for regional economics and the social situation

Cheap supply of animal protein Great improvements in human diets

Small producers become supplanted and marginalised Income disparities grow Some employment is generated

in industrial production More employment is generated

in the value-added food chain

CHINAGRO

Potential consequences of intensive livestock production on specialised farms

Ecological consequences

Land and water pollution in areas of high animal concentration (manure discharge, bad management, excessive application, nutrient balance surplus)

– Eutrophication of surface water– Eutrophication of marine ecosystems– Ground water pollution (nitrate, pathogens etc.)– Nutrient and heavy metal accumulation in soil

Nutrient depletion in feed-producing areas High expenditures of non-renewable resources erosion of animal bio-diversity

CHINAGRO

Potential consequences of intensive livestock production on specialised

farmsHuman and animal health consequences spreading of animal diseases Disease threats for humans

– Zoonosis

– Spreading of pathogens through polluted water or air

– food contamination (pathogens; heavy metals; antibiotics and pharmaceuticals etc.)

Odour, fly and noise problems, if livestock operation is near or in settlement area

• Vulnerability Module

Location;Animals Susceptibility; Duration of Epidemics;

Transmission Mechanisms

VulnerabilityModel

Livestock Losses; Economic Losses;

Humans Health Losses

Location;Animals Susceptibility; Duration of Epidemics;

Transmission Mechanisms

Livestock Epidemics

Model

Livestock; Intensification;

Feed/Water Availability,Agricultural Population,Markets/Transportation

• Epidemics Module

• Multi-agent Economic Accounting System Model (MAEM)

Losses;Feasible Ex-ante

And Ex-post Policiesand Associated Costs

MAEM

Losses and Gainsof Agents;

Population Incomes and Consumption;

Livestock Demand

CHINAGRO

Animal disease risk in China

Assessing the risk of animal disease in China in relation to pig & poultry production structure.

Identifying future avenue for preventing disease emergence through adjusting animal production environment

CHINAGRO

Context (I): densities

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Log (chickens density)

Lo

g (

pig

s d

en

sity

)

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5

Log (chickens density)

Lo

g (

pig

s d

en

sity

)

Netherland

Belgium-Luxembourg

Republic of Korea

Denmark

Viet Nam

Cyprus

Philippines

Hungary

China

Source: FAOSTAT 2001

450 millions pigs - 3.77 billions chickens – 1.29 billions people

CHINAGRO

Intensification risk factors (I)

Factors increasing disease risk

Endemic diseases causing little impact in extensive systems causes significant productivity losses under intensified systems (e.g. enteric and respiratory diseases in cattle & pigs because of viral and bact. Infection, helminthosis and many poultry diseases)

Congregation of highly susceptible animals creates conditions for rapid amplification (e.g. CSF in Europe, FMD in the Philippines)

Stress induced disease & multifactorial disease complex

Higher selective pressure, thus higher risk of new serotypes

Difficulty in maintaining high levels of hygiene, especially if water deficit

CHINAGRO

Intensification risk factors (II)

Factors decreasing disease risk

Possibility to avoid mixing of age group to avoid vertical spread

Using specific pathogen-free pigs (SPF) free of enteric and respiratory diseases and internal & external parasites

Animal health management (vaccine & treatments)

Animals confinement thus higher control on contacts rates (e.g. windborne diseases: FMD, Enzootic Pneumonia, Pseudorabies, Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndromes (PRRS), Porcine Respiratory coronavirus, & vector-borne diseases, contact with flies & rodents) & biosecurity.

CHINAGRO

Disease type vs. production systems

Source: Cameron 2000

Endemic diseases: continuously propagated from older animals, then lateral transfer. Affect mainly extensive systems. Examples: Porcine Pleuropenumoniae, Colibacillosis, Round worm infection, Reproductive and respiratory syndrome…

Epizootic diseases: sudden outbreak due to introduction of a new disease in an area, introduction of a disease in a herd where immunity is low or suppressed, or evolution of a new strain. Affect mainly intensive production systems.

Example: Porcine respiratory coronavirus, Classical Swine fever, FMD…

Stress-induced diseases: endemic disease having a sudden proliferation due to decline in animals immunity caused by stress.

Examples: Epidemic Diarrhoea, Glasser disease…

CHINAGRO

Disease risk in China (II)

% Susceptibles

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f d

is.

occ

urr

en

ce

High ext. syst. dens.

Low ext. syst. dens.

% Susceptibles

Dis

ea

se r

isk

Low ext. syst. dens.

High ext. syst. dens.