by dr. robert m. okello african economic forum tunis 27 october 2010 africa strategic vision 2050:...

1

BY DR. ROBERT M. OKELLO

AFRICAN ECONOMIC FORUM TUNIS 27 OCTOBER 2010

Africa Strategic Vision 2050: Reponses and Policy

Recommendations

2

“AN INTEGRATED, PROSPEROUS AND

PEACEFUL AFRICA, DRIVEN BY ITS CITIZENS AND

REPRESENTING A DYNAMIC FORCE IN GLOBAL ARENA.”

– AUC STRATEGIC PLAN 2009-2012

VISION OF THE AFRICAN UNION

3

STRATEGIC POLICY INTERVENTIONS

DRIVERS OF CHANGE (12)

CONSEQUENCES(9)

4

12 DRIVERS OF CHANGE

DEMOGRAPHICS FISHERIES

DISEASES FORESTS

CONFLICTS MINERALS

CLIMATE CHANGE MARKET CHANGE

LAND PRODUCTION CHANGE

WATER RULE OF THE GAME

5

POLICY RESPONSES

URBANIZATION PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE

MIGRATION REGIONAL INTEGRATION

AGRICULTURE TRADE PREFERENCES

NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGING AID

ROOM AT THE BOTTOM

6

POLICY ENTRY POINTSCENARIOKEY DRIVERS OF CHANGERECOMMENDED POLICY RESPONSE

APPROACH

7

POLICY ENTRY POINT: MANAGING

URBANIZATION

SCENARIO KEY DRIVERS POLICY RESPONSES

SIGNIFICANT POPULATION SWITCH FROM RURAL TO URBAN;MAJOR DISEASES (MALARIA, HIV/AIDS) CONTROLLED;END TO ARMED CONFLICTS;DEEPER REGIONAL INTEGRATION ACHIEVED

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Population Policies; Decentralization; Infrastructure; Urban Planning; Youth Employment

BURDEN OF DISEASES

Implementation of AU Commitments; International Collaboration in vaccine development.

CONFLICTS Implementation of REC and AU Peace and Security Agreements

8

POLICY ENTRY POINT: MANAGING URBANIZATION

(Cont)

SCENARIO KEY DRIVERS POLICY RESPONSE

SIGNIFICANT POPULATION SWITCH FROM RURAL TO URBAN;MAJOR DISEASES (MALARIA, HIV/AIDS) CONTROLLED;END TO ARMED CONFLICTS;DEEPER REGIONAL INTEGRATION ACHIEVED

LAND AND WATER Investments in Water and Sanitation Infrastructure

CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF PRODUCTION

9

POLICY ENTRY POINT: MANAGING MIGRATION


Greater Migration within and Outside Africa; Increased Rural-Urban Migration; GreaterDemand for African Services in Developed Countries; Greater Mobility of Workers; OtherMovements due to Natural Disasters; MigrantRemittances Increasingly Significant in African Economies

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

Decentralization; Regional and Continental Protocols; Deeper Regional Integration

BURDEN OF DISEASES

International Agreements on Communicable Diseases

CLIMATE CHANGE

Greater African Voice in International Agreements.

STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN GLOBAL MARKETS

International Agreements on Migration

10

POLICY ACTION POINT: ADAPTING AGRICULTURE


Increased Agricultural Productivity in Africa; Greater Impact of Technological Innovation;Greater Competition from Northern CountriesDue to Climate Warming; Low Agricultural Prices

Demographic Change

Modernization of Agricultural Production; Structural transformation of Economies from Agric to Industries

Burden of Diseases Integrating HIV/AIDS Programmes into Agricultural Development

Climate Change Adaptation of resistant crops; intensive agriculture; irrigation; Diversification.

Land and Soils Land Reforms; Adaptation of New Technologies; Fertilizers.

11

POLICY ACTION POINT: ADAPTING AGRICULTURE (Cont)


Increased Agricultural Production in Africa; Greater Impact of Technological Innovation;Greater Competition from Northern Countries Due toClimate Warming; Low Agricultural Prices

Water Water Preservation Technologies; Adoption of IWRM National/Regional

Fisheries Capacity Building; Technology; Sustainable Management.

Forestry Forest Conservation and Tree Planting; Intensive Agriculture.

Structural Change in Production

GM Crops; Technology Innovation;

Structural Change in the Global Market

New Markets in Emerging Economies

12

POLICY ENTRY POINT:MANAGING THE

RESOURCE CURSE


Current Known Resources will be Depleted; New Sources will be discovered; Decline in Value of Natural Resources (Technology Change and Depletion).

Conflicts Special Needs of Local Population; Regional “Compacts” on Peace and Security.

Forestry Improved Institutions for Sustainable Mgt.; Alternative Energy

Minerals Value Addition; Institutional Capacity for Effective Mgt.; Avoid Dutch Disease

13

POLICY ENTRY POINT:MANAGING THE RESOURCE

CURSE (Cont)


Current Known Resources will be Depleted; New Sources will be discovered; Decline in Value of NaturalResources (Technology Change and Depletion).

Structural Change in Global Market - Energy

Adequate Governance Institutions; Enabling Environment; Develop Value Chains (Upstream/Downstream);


Avoid Dutch Disease; Good Geological Surveys; Credible Regional Institutional Framework

14

POLICY ENTRY POINT:BREAKING IN AT BOTTOM


Well Established Policies in Place;

Private Sector Developed;

Industrial Agglomeration in Mega Urban Clusters;

Efficient Infrastructure;

Technological Innovation;

Global Competitiveness

Burden of Disease Integrate HIV/AIDS into national programmes .

Structural Change in Global Markets

Improve competitiveness; Diversification of economies; Industrial Agglomeration; Technology and innovation.


Develop Trade in Tasks; Technological Adaptation and Innovation; Institutional Transformation for Capital Deepening

15

POLICY ENTRY POINTS:MOVING UP THE MIDDLE


Africa’s Middle Income Countries Achieved Industrial Agglomeration and Competitiveness and Expanded Trade.

Demographics Implement Policies for Demographic Transition. Institute Capacity Development for Youth.

Structural Change in Global Markets

Accelerate Productivity; Diversify manufacturing


Invest in Local Knowledge; Increased Public and Private Investment.

16

POLICY ENTRY POINTS:REGIONAL INTEGRATION


AEC Fully established and Deeper Integration Achieved. Free Movement of People Results in Mega-Urban Areas in Coastal Areas. Peace and Security Largely Achieved. Africa Fully Integrated into Global Market Including Linked Infrastructure.

Water Strengthen Riparian Agreements; Implement IWRM Systems at Basin Level; Improve Water Transport Systems, including PPP Operations.

Energy Develop Joint Regional Facilities: Oil Refineries; Oil/Gas Pipelines; Power Generating and Distribution. Develop Regional Transport Systems.


Develop Manufacturing in Coastal Mega Urban Areas; Implement PIDA including TAH and Railways; Connect Africa to Europe and Asia.

17

POLICY ENTRY POINT:TRADE PREFERENCES


Africa Reduces its Dependence on Markets in Developed Countries.Special EU and US Trade Preferences with Africa Less Significant. WTO Rules More Relevant.

Rules of the Game Trade Negotiations Include Trade in Tasks. Consistency Between EPA/AGOA and WTO

18

POLICY ENTRY POINT:MANAGING AID


Influence of G8 Significantly Diminished. Aid to Africa from Former Colonial Countries Less Significant. Relative Poverty of Africa Much Reduced.

Rules of the Game Increased Levels of Public and Private Savings to Boost Domestic Investment and Growth. Efficient Taxation System.

19

SUPPORTING GOOD GOVERNANCE

BUILDING TECHNICAL SKILLS AND CAPACITIES

PROMOTING PRIVATE SECTOR

SUPPORTING REGIONAL INTEGRATION

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

AFDB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION

20

IMPLEMENTATION AGREED REGIONAL PROGRAMMES (APRM, INRM/IWRM PROGRAMMES)

STRENGHTHENING FRAGILE STATES

ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION: Supporting Good Governance

21

BUILDING NATIONAL AND REGIONAL CENTRES OF EXCELLNCE

PROMOTING PPP IN AFRICA

ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION: Building Technical Capacity

22

PROMOTE ENABLING ENVIRONMENT FOR INVESTMENT AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP

DIRECT SUPPORT TO KEY SECTORS INCLUDING AGRICULTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE

DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES

ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION:Promoting Private Sector

23

DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

ADVOCATE FOR GREATER AFRICAN VOICE IN INTERNATIONAL FORA

SUPPORTING RECS IMPLEMENT AGREED PROGRAMMES (HARMONIZATION OF REGULATIONS, PRACTICES

ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION: Supporting Regional Integration

24

CONTINUE LEADING INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMME UNDER NEPAD

SCALE UP OWN AND LEVERAGE OTHER INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

PROVIDE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO MEMBER STATES AND RECS

SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

ADB STRATEGIC ORIENTATION: Infrastructure Development

25

BE THERE!!!!!!

THANK YOU

AFRICA IN 2050

by dr. robert m. okello african economic forum tunis 27 october 2010 africa strategic vision 2050:...

Documents