Agricultural Resources of Liberia: Agricultural Resources of Liberia: Demand for the Production of Demand for the Production of

Services – Correlations with the Services – Correlations with the 2005 Elections Data2005 Elections Data

By:By:Dr. Cyril E. BroderickDr. Cyril E. Broderick

Delaware State UniversityDelaware State University

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

War has left people desperately poor and susceptible to War has left people desperately poor and susceptible to mal-nutrition and starvation.mal-nutrition and starvation.

People, especially the young and most productive, have People, especially the young and most productive, have left rural areas for Monrovia and other urban areasleft rural areas for Monrovia and other urban areas

Agricultural production has suffered significantly, Agricultural production has suffered significantly, consequently.consequently.

Moreover, data on agriculture are estimates and may Moreover, data on agriculture are estimates and may poorly quantify the problems listed abovepoorly quantify the problems listed above

Hence, planning for agricultural development is not Hence, planning for agricultural development is not easy, but assessments of available data by competent easy, but assessments of available data by competent professionals can afford the beginning of more effective professionals can afford the beginning of more effective planning.planning.

Effective planning would afford efficient management of Effective planning would afford efficient management of country resources to implement national programs for country resources to implement national programs for real growth and development.real growth and development.

ProblemsProblems

OpportunitiesOpportunities The 2005 published elections data are very The 2005 published elections data are very

revealing, without focusing on agriculture, but they revealing, without focusing on agriculture, but they provide a lot of significant and useful data on provide a lot of significant and useful data on Liberian demographics.Liberian demographics.

Hence, agricultural needs can be estimated based on Hence, agricultural needs can be estimated based on demographic data acquired during the planning and demographic data acquired during the planning and execution of the 2005 Elections.execution of the 2005 Elections.

The stability created by the end of hostility, an The stability created by the end of hostility, an elected government and the presence of UNIMIL elected government and the presence of UNIMIL proved us a significant window to plan the future of proved us a significant window to plan the future of agriculture and other event that assure productive agriculture and other event that assure productive human enterprises for sustenance.human enterprises for sustenance.

We should seize the opportunity to make good plans We should seize the opportunity to make good plans and take Liberia into a future of cornucopia.and take Liberia into a future of cornucopia.

Performing Symbols of the Past and Performing Symbols of the Past and Reinventing Symbols for the FutureReinventing Symbols for the Future

Many Liberian symbols are manifested from Many Liberian symbols are manifested from

agriculture. They range from the cola nut and the agriculture. They range from the cola nut and the palm tree to the tooth of the saboth, the tail of palm tree to the tooth of the saboth, the tail of cattle, and the tusk of the elephant. Symbols cattle, and the tusk of the elephant. Symbols may not mean the same to everyone, but they may not mean the same to everyone, but they are real.are real.

Agriculture and agricultural resources now mean Agriculture and agricultural resources now mean that the open hand of the receiver must now be that the open hand of the receiver must now be changed to the silos or reserves and the changed to the silos or reserves and the cornucopia in the horn of plenty. Bunches of rice cornucopia in the horn of plenty. Bunches of rice grains also are a manifestation of such a future.grains also are a manifestation of such a future.

The objectives of this presentation, The objectives of this presentation, consequently, are thus:consequently, are thus:

Develop more realistic estimates of Liberia’s population, their Develop more realistic estimates of Liberia’s population, their productivity, and their needs – especially in food and productivity, and their needs – especially in food and agriculture, by comparison of estimates developed for Liberia agriculture, by comparison of estimates developed for Liberia over the years, especially over the war years.over the years, especially over the war years.

Utilize the 2005 Elections Data, which are among the most Utilize the 2005 Elections Data, which are among the most authenticated data, to compare and confirm or reject data authenticated data, to compare and confirm or reject data secured under less stringent circumstances.secured under less stringent circumstances.

Use authenticated data to indicate what the plans should be for Use authenticated data to indicate what the plans should be for an agricultural future of Liberia; where there would be an agricultural future of Liberia; where there would be conservation of forests and their products; protection of conservation of forests and their products; protection of fertility in Liberian soils; water damming, storage and fertility in Liberian soils; water damming, storage and conservation; improved plants and animals for high quality conservation; improved plants and animals for high quality yields and sustainable agricultural production, including the yields and sustainable agricultural production, including the use of modern factors of production (machines, chemical use of modern factors of production (machines, chemical fertilizers, computers, etc.) and improved plants and animals, fertilizers, computers, etc.) and improved plants and animals, for the production of goods, services, and manufactured for the production of goods, services, and manufactured products from rice, cassava, and chicken, to tomatoes, onions, products from rice, cassava, and chicken, to tomatoes, onions, cotton, and even fish, bacon and ham, and beef.cotton, and even fish, bacon and ham, and beef.

POST-ELECTION EMPHASES ON POST-ELECTION EMPHASES ON AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENTAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

Source: United Nations Mission in Liberia Press Release, 20 Source: United Nations Mission in Liberia Press Release, 20 November 2006 (UNMIL/PIO/PR135)November 2006 (UNMIL/PIO/PR135)

Hungry people can become violent Hungry people can become violent people. So an investment in food people. So an investment in food security is an investment in national security is an investment in national security”security”

• Mr. Alan Doss, the Special Representative of the Mr. Alan Doss, the Special Representative of the Secretary General to LiberiaSecretary General to Liberia

“… “… We are going to give prizes to the We are going to give prizes to the county that produces more food next county that produces more food next year. Start preparing yourself.”year. Start preparing yourself.”

• Mrs. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, President of LiberiaMrs. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, President of Liberia

Per the statements abovePer the statements above When the people can be fed and be When the people can be fed and be

prosperous, and violence remains in the prosperous, and violence remains in the past, the UN, ECOWAS, and the people of past, the UN, ECOWAS, and the people of Liberia will know the difference.Liberia will know the difference.

And then, by real confirmable data, President And then, by real confirmable data, President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf would be able to know Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf would be able to know which county or counties, produced more which county or counties, produced more food and contributed more to national food and contributed more to national development, and should receive the ‘prizes.’development, and should receive the ‘prizes.’

METHODS OF DATA METHODS OF DATA ACQUISITION AND ANALYSESACQUISITION AND ANALYSES

NEC 2005 ELECTIONS DATANEC 2005 ELECTIONS DATA

The National Elections Commission The National Elections Commission (NEC) of Liberia in 2005 developed (NEC) of Liberia in 2005 developed relevant, real and in-country data.relevant, real and in-country data.

These data present a unique These data present a unique opportunity to assess agriculture and opportunity to assess agriculture and implications to planning for implications to planning for prosperity and national development.prosperity and national development.

SPECIAL PUBLISHED REPORTSSPECIAL PUBLISHED REPORTS Global Information and Early Warning System Global Information and Early Warning System

of Food and Agriculture: Food supply situation of Food and Agriculture: Food supply situation and crop prospects in Sub-Saharan African – and crop prospects in Sub-Saharan African – Press release by Food and Agriculture Press release by Food and Agriculture Organization, No. 2/96, May 1996Organization, No. 2/96, May 1996

FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment FAO Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Liberia – 3 January 1997Mission to Liberia – 3 January 1997

Agriculture and Food – Liberia – EarthTrends Agriculture and Food – Liberia – EarthTrends 2003 Country Profiles at 2003 Country Profiles at http://earthtrends.wri.orghttp://earthtrends.wri.org

There are many others, including pictures of There are many others, including pictures of simple but contemporary agricultural activities simple but contemporary agricultural activities in Liberia.in Liberia.

ELECTIONS DATAELECTIONS DATA

Preparation of Election Rolls of Preparation of Election Rolls of LiberiaLiberia

The Counties of LiberiaThe Counties of LiberiaLocalities and Polling PlacesLocalities and Polling PlacesVotes and the Liberian Votes and the Liberian

PopulationPopulation

There is urgent need for quality There is urgent need for quality agricultural informationagricultural information

““The lack of any official collection or The lack of any official collection or publication of agricultural data since the war publication of agricultural data since the war began makes it very difficult to monitor the began makes it very difficult to monitor the food production status in Liberia with any food production status in Liberia with any degree of accuracy. It would be very useful to degree of accuracy. It would be very useful to have a food production survey and data have a food production survey and data collection project to provide the necessary collection project to provide the necessary condition.” – The 1997 FAO Reportcondition.” – The 1997 FAO Report

This presentation draws on the statistics that This presentation draws on the statistics that can be garnered, and objectives are designed can be garnered, and objectives are designed to determine the reliability of FAO and other to determine the reliability of FAO and other statistics that have been published.statistics that have been published.

RESULTSRESULTS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Num

ber o

f Loc

aliti

es

Bom

i

Bon

g

Gba

rpol

u

Gra

nd B

assa

Gra

nd C

ape

Mou

nt

Gra

nd G

edeh

Gra

nd K

ru

Lofa

Mar

gibi

Mar

ylan

d

Mon

tser

rado

Nim

ba

Riv

erce

ss

Riv

er G

ee

Sino

e

Name of Localities

Number of Localities at Which Polling Took Place

Number of Localities

Eight of the fifteen counties had more Eight of the fifteen counties had more than fifty large County Localitiesthan fifty large County Localities

in 2005 Electionsin 2005 Elections

Only three Counties had more than 100,000 Only three Counties had more than 100,000 voters, and 9 counties had 50,000 voters or voters, and 9 counties had 50,000 voters or

less in the 2005 Electionsless in the 2005 Elections

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

Num

ber o

f Per

sons

Cas

ting

Vote

s

Bom

i

Bon

g

Gba

rpol

u

Gra

nd B

assa

Gra

nd C

ape

Mou

nt

Gra

nd G

edeh

Gra

nd K

ru

Lofa

Mar

gibi

Mar

ylan

d

Mon

tser

rado

Nim

ba

Riv

erce

ss

Riv

er G

ee

Sino

eCounties of Liberia

Number of Voters - 2005 Liberian Elections

Number of Voters

Order of Votes from Least to Most Order of Votes from Least to Most

Votes in 2005 ElectionsVotes in 2005 ElectionsNumber of Voters in the 2005 Liberian Election Voters

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

Counties of Liberia

Num

ber o

f Vot

ers

Number of Voters

The average number of votes per locality The average number of votes per locality for least to most votes by countiesfor least to most votes by counties

Number of Votes per Locality

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Counties of Liberia

Num

ber o

f Vot

ers

per L

ocal

ity

Number of Votes per Locality

Number of Voting Localities in Each Number of Voting Localities in Each County of LiberiaCounty of Liberia

Number of Localities in the 2005 Liberian Elections

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Counties of Liberia

Num

ber o

f Loc

aliti

es th

at H

oste

d Po

lling

Pl

aces

Number of Localities

FAO 1996 County Population and FAO 1996 County Population and the 2005 Election Voters the 2005 Election Voters

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

Num

ber o

f Per

sons

Bom

i

Bong

Gra

nd B

assa

Gra

nd C

ape

Mou

nt

Gra

nd G

edeh

Gra

nd K

ru

Lofa

Mar

gibi

Mar

ylan

d

Mon

tser

rado

Nim

ba

Rive

rces

s

Sino

eThe Thirteen Counties of Liberia in 1996

Comparison of the 1996 FAO Population of Liberia dataand the 2005 Elections Voters

FAO Mid-1996 Population Estimate

Number of Voters

Here are the real data:Here are the real data:

 FAO 1996 Population Estimate and 2005

Election Voters  

County FAO Mid-1996 Population Estimate 2005 NEC Election Voters

Bomi 35000 38525

Bong 130000 131690

Grand Bassa 120000 100566

Grand Cape Mount 15000 51708

Grand Gedeh 10000 53730

Grand Kru 10000 18930

Lofa 126000 89950

Margibi 100000 101535

Maryland 15000 38669

Montserrado 500000 458162

Nimba 150000 190549

Rivercess 15000 18809

Sinoe 35000 28086

Country Total 1261000 1320909     

The excellent co-variation between the 2005 The excellent co-variation between the 2005 Elections Data and the FAO 1996 data, without any Elections Data and the FAO 1996 data, without any conspiracy to match the results, indicate that the conspiracy to match the results, indicate that the efforts were quite legitimate, but there may be some efforts were quite legitimate, but there may be some obvious although not deliberate errors in the FAO, obvious although not deliberate errors in the FAO, noting the followingnoting the following::

The total population of Liberia reported by the FAO 1996 The total population of Liberia reported by the FAO 1996 Mission was 1,260,000 people, while the population that Mission was 1,260,000 people, while the population that voted in 2005 was 1,320,909. The reported 2005 voting voted in 2005 was 1,320,909. The reported 2005 voting population exceeded the 1996 total population.population exceeded the 1996 total population.

Other sources listed the midyear Liberian population in Other sources listed the midyear Liberian population in 1996 and 2005 as 2,024,800 and 2,900,269, respectively. 1996 and 2005 as 2,024,800 and 2,900,269, respectively. (Source: http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsprd)(Source: http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsprd)

That means that the FAO 1996 data make a 38 % That means that the FAO 1996 data make a 38 % population underestimate. What’s about the agricultural population underestimate. What’s about the agricultural data statistics that are presented? How accurate are they?data statistics that are presented? How accurate are they?

However, using the data from the 2005 Elections, results However, using the data from the 2005 Elections, results are that some 35 % of the total Liberian population voted. are that some 35 % of the total Liberian population voted. That is good, very good data, noting that only people over That is good, very good data, noting that only people over 18 can vote, and not everyone who is eligible would vote!18 can vote, and not everyone who is eligible would vote!

Let’s Look at AgricultureLet’s Look at Agriculture Imported Food Crop Items and ProductsImported Food Crop Items and Products RiceRice CassavaCassava Exported Food Crop Items and Products, Exported Food Crop Items and Products,

includingincluding RubberRubber CoffeeCoffee CocoaCocoa Oil palm, andOil palm, and OthersOthers

MAJOR FOOD & AGRICULTURE IMPORTS ARE MAJOR FOOD & AGRICULTURE IMPORTS ARE EXCLUSIVE TO NON-LIBERIAN IMPORTERSEXCLUSIVE TO NON-LIBERIAN IMPORTERS

It is no secret that Liberia spends many millions on these products! It is no secret that Liberia spends many millions on these products! We should not ignore them. Liberians need to participate in this We should not ignore them. Liberians need to participate in this

major sector of the agricultural business enterprise.major sector of the agricultural business enterprise.

TomatoesTomatoes OnionsOnions Vegetable oilVegetable oil SugarSugar SaltSalt MilkMilk ButterButter Bacon, sausages and Bacon, sausages and

hamshams Mainly Lebanese tradersMainly Lebanese traders

Wheat flourWheat flour Breads and cakesBreads and cakes AlcoholsAlcohols Cloths and clothesCloths and clothes FertilizersFertilizers PesticidesPesticides Tractors and machinesTractors and machines

Mainly Lebanese, Indian, Mainly Lebanese, Indian, and European tradersand European traders

Rice production in Liberia –Rice production in Liberia –1986 and 19961986 and 1996Rice Production in the Counties in 1988 and 1996

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

BomiBong

Grand B

assa

Grand C

ape Mount

Grand G

edeh

Grand Kru

Lofa

Marylan

d

Margibi

Montserra

doNim

ba

River C

essSinoe

Counties

Tons

of R

ice

Pre-War (1988) productionProduction in 1996

Cassava production in Liberia –Cassava production in Liberia –1986 and 19961986 and 1996

Comparison of the Production of Cassava (in tons) in 1988 and 1996

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Counties

Tons

of C

assa

va

Pre-War (1988) productionProduction in 1996

For the major crops produced in Liberia, the per For the major crops produced in Liberia, the per capita production may have to be calculated to capita production may have to be calculated to tell the total story.tell the total story. For total rice For total rice

production, Nimba, production, Nimba, Bong, and Lofa Bong, and Lofa remain the best; yet, remain the best; yet, with per capita with per capita production the story production the story changes.changes.

Let’s do the Let’s do the calculations.calculations.

For total cassava For total cassava production, Nimba, production, Nimba, Grand Gedeh, Grand Grand Gedeh, Grand Bassa, and Grand Bassa, and Grand Cape Mount were the Cape Mount were the top.top.

Similarly, the per Similarly, the per capita calculations capita calculations show different results.show different results.

Similarly, Liberia needs to pay attention to Similarly, Liberia needs to pay attention to its major crop exports, includingits major crop exports, including

RubberRubber CoffeeCoffee CocoaCocoa Oil palmOil palm And othersAnd others

Courtesy of Dr. Konia Kollehlon, here are a Courtesy of Dr. Konia Kollehlon, here are a few contemporary photographs of traditional few contemporary photographs of traditional protocols of agriculture in Liberia.protocols of agriculture in Liberia.

DISCUSSIONDISCUSSION

Let President Ellen Johnson-Let President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf award prizes based on Sirleaf award prizes based on accurate data on people and accurate data on people and their productivity. There is need their productivity. There is need to focus on the people and their to focus on the people and their livelihood. Liberian experts can livelihood. Liberian experts can be of real assistance.be of real assistance.

““The livestock sector was never a The livestock sector was never a major feature of the agriculture in major feature of the agriculture in Liberia but cattle goats, pigs, and Liberia but cattle goats, pigs, and

chickens were important to chickens were important to traditional farmers and used to be traditional farmers and used to be

found in most areas. Their found in most areas. Their numbers have been devastated numbers have been devastated

by theft and slaughter during the by theft and slaughter during the hostilities.”hostilities.”

-FAO 1996/1997-FAO 1996/1997

Per capita productivity for Per capita productivity for each county is a start.each county is a start.

In that case, River Gee, River Cess, Grand Kru, In that case, River Gee, River Cess, Grand Kru, and Bomi counties would be able to compete and Bomi counties would be able to compete fairly with Nimba, Bong, and Montserrado fairly with Nimba, Bong, and Montserrado County, Montserrado alone having maybe more County, Montserrado alone having maybe more than a third of the population of Liberia.than a third of the population of Liberia.

As an exercise to begin our thinking of the use of As an exercise to begin our thinking of the use of per capita data, we present the following per capita data, we present the following comparison on data that are available for rice comparison on data that are available for rice and cassava. and cassava.

Efficient planning for maximum Efficient planning for maximum yields is the next step.yields is the next step.

Engage the professionalsEngage the professionals Use improved seedsUse improved seeds Use fertilizersUse fertilizers Protect plants and animalsProtect plants and animals Machines are too absent in agriculture in Machines are too absent in agriculture in

Liberia. The hoe and the cutlass are not Liberia. The hoe and the cutlass are not the best route for plenty.the best route for plenty.

Plan well so that Liberia does not fail.Plan well so that Liberia does not fail.

SELECTED REFERENCESSELECTED REFERENCES Government of Liberia 50 Day Action Plan: A Government of Liberia 50 Day Action Plan: A

Working Document for a New Liberia -2006.Working Document for a New Liberia -2006. National Elections Commission 2005 Elections National Elections Commission 2005 Elections

Report Report http://www.necliberia.org/results/PresidentByCohttp://www.necliberia.org/results/PresidentByCounty.htmlunty.html

Special Report: FAO and Food Supply Special Report: FAO and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Liberia 3 January 1977. Assessment Mission to Liberia 3 January 1977. http://www.fao.org/docreep/004/w3902e/w390/2http://www.fao.org/docreep/004/w3902e/w390/2e00.htme00.htm

United Nations Mission to Liberia Press United Nations Mission to Liberia Press Release, 20 Nove.mber, 2006Release, 20 Nove.mber, 2006

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTS Delaware State University for facilitating my Delaware State University for facilitating my

being here;being here; Dr. Ruth Stone and Dr. Vernon Stone and the Dr. Ruth Stone and Dr. Vernon Stone and the

Indiana University for hosting us;Indiana University for hosting us; The Liberia Studies Association family that The Liberia Studies Association family that

spends much time in efforts to keep a record of spends much time in efforts to keep a record of Liberia; andLiberia; and

My personal family members, including my My personal family members, including my daughter Cheryl, who have remained strong daughter Cheryl, who have remained strong despite personal tragedies and the various other despite personal tragedies and the various other challenges we all face daily. May you and us be challenges we all face daily. May you and us be forever blessed.forever blessed.

I THANK YOU.I THANK YOU.