By

Dr Benjamin A. Aluko

Understanding the Basic Elements & Tools of Conflict Analysis

Probing Questions Who are you in the context

of a Conflict? What is conflict? What are the sources of

conflicts? What are the phases of

conflicts? Is conflict desirable? What are the some of the

basic facts about conflict? What is conflict analysis? Why do we need a conflict

analysis? When do we do conflict

analysis? What are the key elements

of conflict analysis? What are some of the tools

of conflict analysis? Suggested good practices

in conflict analysis

Who are you in the context of a conflict?

As a Medical Practitioner VS Patient

(Restoring Health)

As a Peace Practitioner VS Conflict

(Restoring Relationships)

What is Conflict?

A Layman Perspective:

Disagreement, Crisis,

Dispute, killingViolence, Debate, Fight, War, Protest/Riot,

AggressionConfusion, Chaos

What is Conflict… contConflict is a form of competitive

behaviour between people or groups. It occurs when two or more people compete over perceived or actual goals or limited resources. (Boulding, 1962).

It is ...”a relationship between two or more parties who believe they have incompatible goals” (Kriesberg, 1973).

What are the Sources of Conflict?

Competition for inadequate (or perceived to be inadequate) resources;Contradicting value systems;Psychological needs of groups and individuals;Manipulation of information. (Albert, I.O. 2001:5-6)

Governance(bad governance);

Economics (lack of economic opportunities);

Security;

Socio-cultural factors.

CAUSATIVE FACTORS STRUCTURAL FACTORS

What are the Phases of Conflict?

The pre-conflict phase: This is the period when there is an incompatibility of goals between two or more parties, which could lead to open conflict.

The conflict or crisis phase: In a large scale conflict, this is the period of war, when people on all sides are being killed.

Post-conflict phase: This is the stage when issues are being addressed to promote normal relationships between the parties. In the international context, this phase can be subdivided with labels such as ‘stabilisation; humanitarian; early recovery; ‘peace-building; development.

Is Conflict Desirable?

Conflict can be positive or negative depending on the perceptions of parties.

When conflict is constructively managed, it can create an opportunity for positive change.

The outcome of a conflict is determined by the way parties perceive it, which is also a function of its management.

What are some of the Basic Facts About Conflict?

Conflict is natural and inevitableConflict occurs at all levels human endeavorsConflict emerges through an interactive processConflict can be constructive or destructiveConflict occurs because parties pursue incompatible interest.Conflict can be Prevented, Managed or Resolved

What is Conflict Analysis?

Conflict analysis is a practical process of examining and understanding the reality of a conflict from a variety of perspectives (Fisher, S. et al, 2000).

Conflict analysis is the systematic study of the profile, causes, actors, and dynamics of conflict. (FEWER/CIDA)

Why conflict analysis? To understand the

background and history of the situation as well as current events.

To identify all the relevant groups involved, not just the main or obvious ones

To understand the perspectives of all these groups and to know more about how they relate to each other.

To identify factors and trends that underline conflicts.

To learn from failures as well as successes.

When do we Carry Out Conflict Analysis?

“Conflict analysis is most frequently done, as a formal exercise, prior to designing programmes.

Conflict analysis can usefully be done or re-done when there is a significant shift in the dynamics

It may actually be useful to include a ‘revisiting’ of the situational dynamics into the ongoing programme management e.g. in the form of periodic strategic reviews.

Periodically taking stock of ‘what has changed and what has not changed and why’ in one’s operating environment, may help detect and invite reflection on more subtle qualitative changes that have meaning for your intervention and efforts. On-going analysis keeps you in ‘strategic mode rather than just an initial ‘strategic moment’.

Elements of Conflict Analysis?

(A)The Conflict Profile:

(B)Causes of Conflict

(C)Actors:

(D)Dynamics

Tools of Conflict Analysis

There are many tools often used for analyzing conflicts. Five salient ones are discussed here.

ABC TriangleOnion/Doughnut ModelConflict MappingConflict ProgressionConflict Tree

ABC Triangle- Basic Assumptions

Every conflict begins with a CAUSEOnce there is a CAUSE, it brings about a –ve change in ATTITUDE.-ve ATTITUDE gives rise to –ve change in BEHAVIOURA wrong BEHAVIOUR leads to more CAUSES.This cycle of conflict provocations brings about ESCALATION of conflict.

CAUSE

ATTITUDE

BEHAVIOR

C3 C2 C1B1 B2 B3

A3 A2 A1

Onion/DoughnutLikens a conflict to an Onion or doughnut with 3 layersThe outer layer is often very tough and thus constitute the POSITION-the claims of parties.The Inner layers are soft and sweet but difficult to reach.The NEED is the most important, without which the conflict cannot be resolved.The exercise involves Trust Building for conflicting parties to agree to share vital information about one another.A good mediator needs to understand all the perspectives of the conflict.When parties refuses to share vital information about themselves. It becomes extremely difficult to unravel the NEEDS.

Onion/Doughtnut

POSITIONS

INTERESTS

NEEDS

Conflict Mapping

Presents in a concise form, the graphic representation of a conflict situation.

Depicts the conflict actors and their power statusClaims of actors

Shows the relationships of actorsReveals the Shadow parties if any.

Shows the kinds of intervention in place

An Example of a Family Dispute

GRD.MOTHERUNCLE

FATHER

MOTHER

DAUGHT

SON

Strong Relationship

Broken Alliance

Alliance

Discord

Liberian Conflict

Armed Forces of Liberia

NPFL

AID AGENCIES

INPFLMediationUNO/

ECOMOG

LIBYA/B. FASO

EthnicityCorruptionH/R ABUSEDICTATO-

SHIP

Embezzle-Ment

Jail BreakRebel Movt. NIGERIA

Conflict ProgressionLatent:A pre-conflict stage or emergent stage, when there is incompatibility of goals between two or parties. The conflict is hidden from the general view. Only the primary parties know a conflict exists.Escalation:This is a confrontational stage, when the conflict has become obvious. Each parties may be mobilizing resources and perhaps looking for allies. Supporters may begin to engage in demonstrations. Relationships between parties become strained, leading to polarization between supporters of each side. CrisisThis is the peak of open conflict and large scale conflict when violence is most intense. A high casualty is being recorded on both sides. A call for humanitarian intervention.De-Escalationat this stage, the level of tension, confrontation and violence decrease considerably with the possibility of settlement. It may be as a result of one party defeating the other An authority may impose a ceasefire or parties agree to Negotiation or Mediation TransformationA period of peace-building and post conflict reconstruction. Rehabilitation and Reconciliation projects become the major challenge

Conflict Progression

Latent

Escalation

Crisis

De-Escalation

Transformation

Time

ConfEsca

Conflict Tree

Trunk

Fruits

Leaves

Root

Good Practices in Conflict Analysis

It is important to note that analysing a conflict is not a ‘value-free’ or emotion-free exercise. As a matter of fact, peace-building is a value-based engagement and so you must beware of subjectivity and bias creeping into your analysis. You are better placed to engage all sides and appreciate the situation more clearly, if you engage in your analysis with an open mind.

Good Practices of Conflict Analysis…Cont.

You must factor the need to actively review what has been tried before and what worked or did not work, especially if you are not the first one trying to intervene in the conflict, in your analysis.

You must consider the scope of the analysis from the perspective of the realities on the ground and not in terms of your particular interests or circumstances.

Good Practices of Conflict Analysis…Cont.

Conflict analysis should also not be a simple expression of the areas of ‘common interest’ of those doing it.

We must also be conscious of the fact that a conflict analysis is not a ‘one off exercise. Good practice implies that periodic updates are planned for to capture effectively the dynamics of the conflict

Good Practices of Conflict Analysis…ContConflict

analysis is done in participatory or non-participatory ways.

We must also be conscious of the fact that conflict analysis is not only relevant when there is visible violence

Thank you for

Listening