buzz metrics and mazda
TRANSCRIPT
Beyond Blogs and Social Networks
New Technologies & New IdeasDecember 1, 2005
Jonathan CarsonPresident & [email protected](646) 253-1901
[Private and Confidential]2
BuzzMetrics Overview
About BuzzMetrics• Proprietary software to identify, gather, process millions of unaided online
conversations (forums, blogs, email lists, review sites, etc.)
• BuzzMetrics has performed WOM research and planning for 50 F1000’s.
• Clients include GM, HP, JetBlue, Comcast, Whirlpool, Mazda, 14 of top 15 pharmas, 7 of top 10 food companies, etc.
• Recognized leaders: co-founders of Word of Mouth Marketing Association; featured in CBS News, NY Times, WSJ, Economist, NPR, many more.
• SEPTEMBER 2005: BuzzMetrics acquired by Trendum, emerging competitor backed strategically and financially by VNU.
About WOMMA• Founded 2004; over 120 member companies.
• Hugely successful inaugural conference in March 2005.
• Main priorities: Standards & Metrics; Ethics guidelines; industry education.
MySpace has 50% more traffic than Google
It should surpass MSN and AOL within a few months
Only Yahoo will have more
Source: Comscore
Wikipedia is #1 online reference site
By a long shot
Double the traffic of #2 Dictionary.comFive times the traffic of Encarta
Source: Hitwise
5 million U.S. podcast users in 2005 (up 500%)
Forecasted to grow to 63 million by 2010
XM and Sirius have about 7mm subscribers…… and a combined market cap of $16 billion
Source: Bridge Ratings, Yahoo! Finance
June 2205: Flickr had 19.5 million photos, 80% of which are shared publicly
At current growth rate, over 75 million photos available for public download by end of 2005
Getty Images, world's largest image archive, has 70 million images for sale……And a $5.7 billion market cap
Source: Internet News, Yahoo! Finance
A powerful global conversation has begun. Through the Internet, people are discovering and inventing new ways to share relevant knowledge with blinding speed. As a direct result, markets are getting smarter—and getting smarter faster than most companies.
These markets are conversations.
-- The Cluetrain Manifesto (1999)
[Private and Confidential]17
Word of Mouth: Dominant new marketing force
Official WOMMA Definitions
What is “word of mouth”?
One consumer passing marketing-relevant information to other consumers.
What is “word of mouth marketing”?
Any marketing effort designed to affect the ways in which one consumer passes information to other consumers.
[Private and Confidential]18
Why is WOM an important media channel?
Consumers trust WOM dramatically more than other media.
67%Word of Mouth
53%Advertising
47%Editorial
1977
Factors make you most comfortable purchasing a product?- Mediaedge
76%A friend recommended it
22%Newspaper/Magazine recommended it
15%Advertisement
8%The website
Best source for advice on a new product:
- Yankelovich67%Another consumer
35%Info services (e.g. Consumer Reports)
26%Newspaper/Magazine
21%Television
Best source for new ideas about products:
- NOP92%
Word of Mouth
50%Advertising
40%Editorial
2005
[Private and Confidential]19
Why is online WOM becoming so powerful
1.) Channel is large and growing• 44% of online U.S. adults – over 50 million Americans – are “content
creators” [Pew Internet]
• Virtually all online consumers encounter consumer generated content.
• 8% of online adults blog; 27% of online adults read blogs [Pew Internet]
2.) Internet increases power of consumer influencers• Consumer influencers able to dramatically increase their reach.
• Consumers seeking help from consumer experts can find them much more easily.
3.) Consumer content increasingly dominates Internet content.
[Private and Confidential]20
Consumer content dominates Internet
Corporate content, 18%
Media content, 12%
Expert content, 22%
Consumer generated content,
26%
Other (affiliate, etc.), 22%
Source: Jupiter Research
Jupiter Research found that 26% of top search results for world’s twenty largest brands is consumer-generated.
FACT #1:
Consumers trust the opinion of other consumers
more than they trust
advertising,
spokespeople,
unbiased “expert” third parties,
or the traditional media.
FACT #2:
New technology tools have
made it remarkably easy
for consumers to create media
to share with other consumers.
FACT #3:
New technology tools have
also made it remarkably easy
for consumers to find the media
created by other consumers.
RAMIFICATION:
To effectively reach consumers in the future, companies must enter into the global conversation.
What’s the first thing you do if you want to enter a conversation?
You listen.
Four things you can do by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz…
Four things you can do by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz…
[Private and Confidential]27
Case Study: Nutrition buzz
The Situation
Food co’s miss several major nutrition trends b/c have no way to track grassroots, consumer-driven movements.
Opportunity
Study buzz on nutrition as predictive tool.
Solution
Identify 500 most influential nutrition consumers and study nutrition issues they talk about most frequently.
[Private and Confidential]28
Current trend: Death of Low Carb
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005
Influ
en
cer
Pa
ne
l
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Ea
rly
Ma
jorit
y
Influencer Panel Dieters Diabetics
Conscientious Consumer Nutrition Experts Fitness Buffs
Head of Household Early Majority Panel
Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “Low Carb”Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “Low Carb”
[Private and Confidential]29
Current trend: Death of Low Carb
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005
Influ
en
cer
Pa
ne
l
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Ea
rly
Ma
jori
ty
Influencer Panel Dieters Diabetics
Conscientious Consumer Nutrition Experts Fitness Buffs
Head of Household Early Majority Panel
Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “Atkins Diet”
[Private and Confidential]30
Current trend: Death of Low Carb
Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “South Beach Diet”
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Q1 2005
Influ
en
cer
Pa
ne
l
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Ea
rly
Ma
jori
ty
Influencer Panel Dieters Diabetics
Conscientious Consumer Nutrition Experts Fitness Buffs
Head of Household Early Majority Panel
Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “South Beach Diet”
[Private and Confidential]31
Current trend: Rise of portion control
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Q4/2003 Q1/2004 Q2/2004 Q3/2004 Q4/2004 Q1/2005
Influ
ence
r P
anel
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Ear
ly M
ajor
ity
Nutrition Panel Conscientious Consumer Diabetes
Dieters Fitness Buffs Head of Household
Nutrition Experts Early Majority
Percentage of Nutrition Panel who mention “portion control”
[Private and Confidential]32
Current trend: Rise of portion control
Diets most frequently linked to portion control.
33%
27%
14%
9%7%
5%3%
2%1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Custom
ized D
iet
Wei
ght Wat
cher
s
Jenny
Craig
South B
each
Die
t
Other
Beach
Body/
Slim
in 6
Atkin
s
French
Die
t
LA Wei
ght Loss
Four things you can do by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz….
[Private and Confidential]34
Case Study: BuzzMetrics/Pew Political Buzz
Three primary research goals:
(1) Uncover learnings about political blogs.
(5) Study increasing ability of individuals
to instigate “civic storms”.
(8) Understand affect of civic storms
on National agenda.
[Private and Confidential]35
Cross media channel analysis
1.) Political Blogs• 40 A List political blogs.
• 18,000 posts.
2.) Citizen Chatter• 15 discussion forums.
• 2.1 million comments.
3.) Mainstream Media• 16 outlets, including print, TV, online, radio.
4.) Campaigns• Bush and Kerry blogs, newsrooms; DNC/RNC newsrooms.
[Private and Confidential]36
Targeted discussion topic analysis
Unaided research environment allows highly targeted topic analysis.
1,400 TOTAL N
3.6%51Foreign Affairs: Europe
3.7%52Govt: Military
3.9%55Govt: Homeland Security
3.9%55Horserace: Strategy
4.1%57Horserace: VP Candidate
5.3%74Iraq: Saddam
5.4%75Govt: Policy
5.5%77Govt: Intelligence
6.2%87Iraq: WMD
6.5%91Horserace: Swing States
7.9%110Govt: Bush Admin
7.9%110Character Trait: Bush
7.9%111Iraq: US Troops
10.3%144Character Trait: Kerry
10.6%148Foreign Affairs: Terrorism
11.3%158Social: Media
11.8%165Horserace: Poll
12.3%172Horserace: Voters
12.6%176Horserace: Debate
13.1%183Iraq: General Situation
%Freq.FIGURE: Top 20 Blogger Issues
[Private and Confidential]37
Some buzz storms are constant and intense
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
9/1/
2004
9/5/
2004
9/9/
2004
9/13
/200
4
9/17
/200
4
9/21
/200
4
9/25
/200
4
9/29
/200
4
10/3
/200
4
10/7
/200
4
10/1
1/20
04
10/1
5/20
04
10/1
9/20
04
10/2
3/20
04
10/2
7/20
04
10/3
1/20
04
Ch
att
er
& B
log
s
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ca
mp
aig
n O
utp
ut
Conservative Chatter General Chatter Liberal Chatter Conservative Blogs
General Blogs Liberal Blogs Kerry Bush
Buzz for “Iraq”
[Private and Confidential]38
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
10/23/04 10/27/04 10/31/04 11/4/04 11/8/04 11/12/04 11/16/04 11/20/04
General Blogs Liberal Blogs Conservative Blogs
General Chatter Liberal Chatter Conservative Chatter
Bush Campaign Kerry Campaign Media
Other storms are brief and pass quickly
Buzz for “missing explosives controversy”
[Private and Confidential]39
Buzz origination can be dissected
MEDIA
.82 .50
.78.65
.54
.41.45
.37
.81
.66
.58
.63
.34
.56
.56 .54
.45
.45
.42
.42
.40
.39
.38
.63
.34
.34
.34
.30
.26
.26
.22
.13
.09
.64
LIB
CO
N
GE
N
LIB CON
KERRY BUSH
.79.89
MEDIA
.82 .50
.78.65
.54
.41.45
.37
.81
.66
.58
.63
.34
.56
.56 .54
.45
.45
.42
.42
.40
.39
.38
.63
.34
.34
.34
.30
.26
.26
.22
.13
.09
.64
LIB
CO
N
GE
N
LIB CON
KERRY BUSH
.79.89
MEDIA
.82 .50
.78.65
.54
.41.45
.37
.81
.66
.58
.63
.34
.56
.56 .54
.45
.45
.42
.42
.40
.39
.38
.63
.34
.34
.34
.30
.26
.26
.22
.13
.09
.64
LIB
CO
N
GE
N
LIB CON
KERRY BUSH
.79.89
Correlation between media channels
[Private and Confidential]40
Buzz paths can be understood
Need to pursue our finding that topic preference of bloggers correspond more with those of the citizen chatterers and MSM than the latter two did with each other.
Liberal Blogs
Conservative Blogs
BLOGS
Liberal Chat
Conservative Chat
CHATTER
MEDIA
.78
.88
.65 .78 .4.43
Liberal Blogs
Conservative Blogs
BLOGS
Liberal Chat
Conservative Chat
CHATTER
MEDIA
.78
.88
.65 .78 .4.43
[Private and Confidential]41
Bloggers used buzz to keep Rathergate alive
* 9/10 – 9/19: Conservative bloggers stayed with the forgery topic more than liberals.
* 9/21: Interest for all groups surges in response to CBS apology.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
9/8/
2004
9/10
/200
4
9/12
/200
4
9/14
/200
4
9/16
/200
4
9/18
/200
4
9/20
/200
4
9/22
/200
4
9/24
/200
4
9/26
/200
4
9/28
/200
4
9/30
/200
4
10/2
/200
4
Chatt
er
& B
logs
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Cam
pa
ign
Outp
ut &
Med
ia
Liberal Chatter Conservative Chatter Liberal Blogs Conservative Blogs
Media Articles Bush Kerry
FIGURE: Conversation share of Rathergate issue.
Four things you can do by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz….
[Private and Confidential]43
Case Study: Large appliance manufacturer
The Situation
» Manufacturer begins to receive fan mail for a washing machine.
» Seriously. They were shocked too.
» Beyond fan mail, anecdotal reports of evangelism filter in. Manufacturer turns to online to better understand this phenomenon.• How big was it?
• Who were these consumers?
• What was driving this?
• How could they leverage it?
[Private and Confidential]44
Source: BuzzMetrics Research
WOM Strategy Takeaway
» Focus in on & amplify organic interest in product among males.
Male48%
Female49%
Unknown3%
Who Are The Most Passionate Owners?
Surprising findings about existing buzz igniters
[Private and Confidential]45
Understand why buzz already happening
Source: BuzzMetrics Research
WOM Strategy Must
» Natural desire to share ‘war stories’ and proof points.
2%
3%
4%
4%
5%
7%
8%
13%
14%
18%
23%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
FL/TL debates
Seeks Usage Tips
Give Tech Support
Request Features
Seek Tech Support
Seek/Provide Product Info
Provide Usage Tips
Complementary products
Promote/Sway
Misc Duet Banter
Provide Usage Reports
What Do Passionate Owners Talk About?
“The stuff you can wash is amazing. Stuffed animals…antique quilts, comforters, electric
blankets, 22 towels (it is true).... I'm still much in love.”
Epinions – Washing Machines, 2003-09-22
“I have played with my machine in the past. Testing its limitations.”
That Home Site, 2003-10-08
[Private and Confidential]47
Marketing programs amplify natural buzz
Examples of what people report challenging the machine with: » 3' x 5' area rug » Satin dance/drill uniform » 10 yard piece of fabric» Sleeping bags» Stuffed animals» 22 towels» Cat/Pet Bedding» Sneakers» Little league uniforms
» Little league uniforms» Little league uniforms
The Result:
Sponsorships & grassroots activities with key little league/youth sport
organizations.
Four things you can do by listening…
1. See the future…
2. Dissect catastrophes in real-time…
3. Create a hit with no advertising…
4. Understand the language of buzz….
[Private and Confidential]49
Case Study: Oprah Car Giveaway
Source: BuzzMetrics Research
How strongly are consumers linking GM to the Oprah event?
46%
14%
8%4%
46%
36%
10%12%
64%
14% 12%
6%
0%
56%
74%
84%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
GM Segment General Auto Segment Competitive AutoSegment
General Interest
GM Pontiac G6 No Link
[Private and Confidential]50
Buzz tracking is crucial
AT FIRST:
“Bottom line: It was a win-win situation for Oprah and Pontiac. For whatever Pontiac paid, they'll get their money back and more.”
Car and Driver Forums, 2004-09-15
BUT THEN:
“The G6 should be renamed the Pontiac Oprah. Because of its close association with Oprah, this will be a chick car and not a guy's car.”
GMInsidenews.com, 2004-09-16
“It would've been nice for Oprah or GM to pay for EVERYTHING.”Free Republic, 2004-09-22
“So they sell the car, pay the 7G's and then use the other 20G's left to buy a different car. They can get a Civic for 14, which is a better car anyway.”
Runners World, 2004-09-22