business moment two scenario 263312

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This research note is restricted to the personal use of [email protected]


G00263312

Business Moment: Two Scenarios of a Car

Crash Highlight Digital Business OpportunitiesPublished: 20 June 2014

Analyst(s): Jorge Lopez, Jeffrey Cole

Digital business will create dynamic value chains and new business

opportunities that CIOs and business and IT leaders must investigate. In this

research, we explore how a car crash creates two different types of

business moments to illustrate the potential of digital business.

Key Findings■ As things in the Internet of Things become smarter, negotiations between them and with people

can be deterministic, through centralized brokerages, or nondeterministic, through peer-to-peer

intelligence depending on the state of the art and the desired degree of control.

■ Key industries involved in the two business moments include consumer electronics, healthcare,

financial services, automotive, retail, legal and government.

■ The top technologies enabling this business moment include Internet-connected automobiles,

smartphones and smart clothing sensors, Internet-addressable environmental video cameras,

automated real-time decisioning and offering systems, and communications standards and

protocols.

RecommendationsCIOs and business and IT leaders:

■ Business moments are speculative situations. Use these moments to communicate complex

stories that illustrate the potential of digital business and to help build your leadership networks

with like-minded business partners.

■ Integrate business moments into your thinking about customer journeys and associated

processes. As "things" become important in ways you hadn't envisioned, use these moments to

help see new connections for your business.

Table of Contents


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Analysis..................................................................................................................................................3

Digital Business Brings Potential for Numerous Business Moments.................................................. 3

Business Moments and the Four Internet of Things Scenarios..........................................................3

Car Crash Business Moment Scenario 1: The Smartphone Is the First Responder........................... 6

Crash!.........................................................................................................................................6

Don's Virtual Personal Assistant Gets Busy................................................................................ 6

Analyzing the Business Moment................................................................................................. 7

Implications of This Business Moment............................................................................................ 10

Car Crash Business Moment Scenario 2: Autonomous Devices Coordinate the Response.............13

Crash!.......................................................................................................................................13

The (Local) Internet of Things Gets Busy...................................................................................14

Analyzing the Business Moment............................................................................................... 15

Implications of This Business Moment...................................................................................... 19

What Is Digital Business?................................................................................................................20

Gartner Recommended Reading..........................................................................................................21

List of Tables

Table 1. Industries and Requirements of the Scenario 1 Business Moment.......................................... 10

Table 2. Industries and Requirements of the Scenario 2 Business Moment.......................................... 18

List of Figures

Figure 1. Four Scenarios of the Internet of Things...................................................................................4

Figure 2. Two Car Crash Business Moment Scenarios........................................................................... 5

Figure 3. The Car Crash......................................................................................................................... 6

Figure 4. Scenario 1's Central Brokerage Point...................................................................................... 8

Figure 5. Centralized Brokerage Scenario of the Internet of Things......................................................... 9

Figure 6. The Car Crash Revisited........................................................................................................ 13

Figure 7. Peer-to-Peer Intelligence Scenario of the Internet of Things................................................... 15

Figure 8. Scenario 2's Business Moment Value Stream........................................................................16

Figure 9. Digital Business..................................................................................................................... 21

Page 2 of 23 Gartner, Inc. | G00263312


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Analysis

Digital Business Brings Potential for Numerous Business Moments

Digital business is the creation of new business designs by blurring the digital and physical worlds.Digital business is ushering in an unprecedented convergence of people, business and things,

creating new revenue opportunities in its wake (see the What Is Digital Business? section, and

"Agenda Overview for Digital Business, 2014" for more detail). To illustrate this potential, this

research will use the concept of the business moment — a transient opportunity that is exploited

dynamically (see "Digital Businesses Will Compete and Seek Opportunity in the Span of a

Moment"). A business moment is very short in duration (even seconds), depending on the nature of

the opportunity. This catalyst sets in motion a series of events involving people, businesses and

things that span multiple industries and multiple ecosystems.

This research is part of a series highlighting different business moments. These scenarios are not

meant to be recommendations or predictions of where an enterprise should focus, but rather, are

meant to stimulate thinking of CIOs, IT leaders and business leaders around the possibilities for

their businesses or situations.

Business Moments and the Four Internet of Things Scenarios

Our world and the business context are becoming populated with networked devices. Of the

world's estimated 1.5 trillion things, 200 million of them were networked in 2000, but now, just 14

years later, that number has grown to 10 billion.1 This growing Internet of Things (IoT) exhibits four

key capabilities:

1. Connect — The Internet of Things starts out with the ability to connect an object to the Internet.

2. Identify — With connection comes a profound capability of identifying "Who or what are you?"

3. Locate — After identification comes the question, "Where are you?"

4. Inquire — "Are you available?"

As the IoT things become smarter and more capable, their connectivity becomes a two-way

communication. Things can not only be interrogated, but also offer and negotiate for information

and services. Business moments arise when things in the IoT broadcast their information or

announce their needs and willingness to negotiate.

The new capabilities for negotiation provide an opportunity to analyze the forces ahead for businessand government. Two key forces form a matrix: (1) intelligence, which recognizes the level needed

for negotiation; and (2) the possible ways that the things are organized, from centralized to

distributed. These result in the emergence of some new capabilities, depending on how the

business approaches its organization. Out of this matrix, four scenarios emerge:

1. Ordinary things — This is the world of things as they have been for centuries: There is some

identification that a person who is physically present can read. The information can contain

Gartner, Inc. | G00263312 Page 3 of 23


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serial numbers or other tracking numbers that are then entered in another system. This requires

low intelligence and is very distributed. Examples of this are individual physical items, such as

tires, bolts and cloth, which are physically counted in inventory.

2. Current state of the art — This is the world where all items have a bar code and their

movements, when recorded, are sent to centralized systems for further processing and actions,if needed. This would also include the world of kanban manufacturing, where things are

identified and their local movements are determined by visual inspection. All items that have a

bar code, especially consumer products such as breakfast cereal, smartphones and toys, are

represented in systems for better accuracy through their bar code scans.

3. Centralized brokerages — In this scenario, intelligent things communicate with a central

brokerage via mesh networks or other easily configured networks, and seek to fulfill needs and

resources through that centralized system. The system will take care of most negotiations

between the individual things, such as managing numerous warehouse robots. In this scenario,

the individual items will not be of very much value, so managers will see a centralized brokerage

as the most rational and cost-effective approach.

4. Peer-to-peer intelligence — In this scenario, the different devices have a built-in sense of their

needs and resources within their advancing intelligence. The devices don't need the central

brokerage as much as they need an information bank to know more about prices and costs.

With items that are high in value, a peer-to-peer intelligence requires additional investment that

can be justified by the higher risk of damage or theft to those items (see Figure 1).

Figure 1. Four Scenarios of the Internet of Things

OrdinaryThings

Peer-to-PeerIntelligence

CurrentState of the

ArtCentralizedBrokerages

Communicate Negotiate

Centralized

Distributed

INTELLIGENCE

O R G A N I Z A T I O N

Source: Gartner (June 2014)



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Figure 2 shows two possible car crash scenarios, further described below, for how business

moments transpire.

Figure 2. Two Car Crash Business Moment Scenarios

Centralized

Organization

Distributed

Intelligence

Embedded

Brokered

Scenario 1:

Smartphone

Scenario 2:

Autonomous

Devices


In Scenario 1, a smartphone coordinates and brokers the various devices and services to address

human health and auto repair concerns. Scenario 2 takes a more distributed approach in which

each of the devices acts on its own to coordinate within an emerging resolution ecosystem. The

intent is to provoke discussion and thought concerning your business in this emerging digital

business context.



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Car Crash Business Moment Scenario 1: The Smartphone Is the First Responder

Figure 3. The Car Crash

Source: Creative Commons image courtesy of Jeffrey Beall on Flickr

Crash!

The intersection was always busy and congested, but especially during the workweek. Horn

blowing was a normal part of any surface travel in this section of the city. As soon as the light

turned green, the line of cars rapidly accelerated, gated only by the level of caution, if any, of the

lead cars. The line swept around the backs of the cars sticking into the intersection. Just as Don

was turning the corner, the line suddenly halted. Don stopped but was immediately pushed into the

car in front of him, and the airbag flew into his face, and everything went black.

Don's Virtual Personal Assistant Gets Busy

Sensors in Don's smartphone detect the sudden deceleration and send alerts to the phone's virtual

personal assistant (VPA). Don's VPA quickly interrogates the sensors in Don's clothing for vital

signs. The VPA quickly sends the data to medical emergency first responders. It turns on the

speaker in the phone, but queries from the emergency medical technicians (EMTs) elicit no

response from the unconscious Don. The VPA continues to monitor the clothing sensors and

transmitting the data to the rapidly approaching first responders.

Meanwhile, the VPA has interrogated the vehicle systems for their status. Noting that the engine,

although damaged and not running, is still switched on, the VPA quickly locates a repair station in a

shop that has the diagnostic and other codes for repairing this particular vehicle. Quick negotiations

yield the engine kill code, which the VPA broadcasts to the engine control module. The VPA sends

the engine and vehicle status to the fire and police responders who are weaving their way through

the traffic to the site. Searching for nearby repair and towing companies, the VPA negotiates with



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their contracting systems until it receives approved towing and preliminary repair estimates.

Checking online review and approval ratings, it selects the best option using its preprogrammed

decision rules for price/performance and proximity of towing and repair shops.

As the EMTs revive and check Don, and the fire and police responders secure the vehicle and

scene, the VPA locates and interrogates nearby video cameras to collect digital evidence of thecrash as it occurred. As the EMTs begin to move the now conscious Don to the ambulance, they

locate and pick up Don's smartphone. Once Don is settled, and they are moving toward the

hospital, the EMTs upload a summary of Don's condition to the smartphone. The VPA sends a

message containing the summary to Don's family.

The towing company retrieves Don's car and takes it to the repair shop for further evaluation and to

wait for final approval for the updated estimate. With everything taken care of, the VPA sends its

collected crash information to the police and a set of law firms for assessment.

Analyzing the Business MomentToday, this business moment may seem far-fetched, but in reality, the building blocks are all in

place.

Figure 4 is a process diagram that captures the highlights of this moment and shows the

interactions between people, businesses and things.



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Figure 4. Scenario 1's Central Brokerage Point

Catalyst Thing PersonBusiness

Two carscollide!

2. Smartphone

interrogates passengerclothing for vital signs

1. Smartphonedetects sudden

deceleration

4. Smartphone interrogatesvehicle systems for

damage report

3. Smartphone sendsinformation to medical

emergency first responders

5. Damage report sent tofire, police, towing and

insurance companies

6. Estimates for repairssent to smartphone from

different companies;negotiations ensue to get

best price and delivery

7. Smartphone interrogatesnearby video cameras tocollect digital evidence of

the car crash as it occurred

8. Smartphonenotifies next of kinvia text messages

and Facebook

9. Smartphone sendsinformation portfolio to

law firms for assessment


In this scenario, the smartphone serves as a central brokerage point (see Figure 5), as would a

brokerage point or multiple points managing the deployment of the medical, fire and police

emergency response teams. These latter may be specialized points for each of the providers, with a

main brokerage point coordinating their efforts. This would be similar to large-scale operational sites

providing standardized negotiation capabilities for the vast networks of things that have a need to

be managed through supply networks and the secondary markets of brokerages that will be

"feeders" for specialized supply networks. Specialized companies that have world-class productdesign will leverage these networks as part of their design and focus on gaining greater product

differentiation.



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Figure 5. Centralized Brokerage Scenario of the Internet of Things

OrdinaryThings


Current

State of the Art

Centralized

Brokerages


Centralized

Distributed

INTELLIGENCE



As a central brokerage point, the smartphone interacts and negotiates with the IoT things in its

"local" environment. It communicates with sensors, video cameras, auto repair stations andbusinesses using available communications types, such as Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, Near Field

Communication (NFC) and the Internet. Once a connection is established, the smartphone can

begin to determine who or what they are and where they are and, as appropriate, "negotiate" for the

desired information. In the case of things such as the clothing and auto sensors, the negotiation is a

relatively straightforward request for information. Negotiations for repair estimates are much more

active processes involving the execution of multiple resources in the different companies, as well as

additional smartphone resources, some of which presumably reside in the cloud.

Table 1 summarizes the key industries involved in this business moment and highlights some of the

key capabilities.



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Table 1. Industries and Requirements of the Scenario 1 Business Moment

Industry Information Flow

Critical Infrastructure, Business

Process or Technology

Requirements

Consumerelectronics

■ Acquires sensor, video camera and other

data, and sends to relevant actors

■ Receives, analyzes and responds to bids

and offers using local or cloud resources

■ Smartphone and VPA technologies

■ Smart apps for managing

emergencies and communications

channels

Government

■ Negotiates, determines and mandates

standardized data and communications

protocols

■ Emergency management data and

communications standards

■ Smart emergency management

processes

■ Video camera access protocols

Healthcare

■ Receives initial and updated medical

information, and communicates treatment

advice to first responders

■ Medical data standards

■ Communications protocols

Financialservices

■ Receives initial insurance claims

information, sends update requests and

transmits a final appraisal

■ Smart claims processing and

negotiation services and

processes

Automotive ■ Provides status data on inquiry ■ Operational and damage sensors

Retailers

■ Smart clothing provides status data oninquiry

■ Towing and repair companies receive and

analyze auto data from the smartphone,

and return repair estimates

■ Smart clothing sensors

■ Smart auto repair estimation and

negotiation services and

processes

Legal

■ Receives and analyzes information from

the smartphone, and sends a final

assessment

■ Smart initial assessment and

prioritization or routing capabilities


Implications of This Business Moment

This business moment illustrates a wide variety of players and the exchange of information between

them. To further the digital business and business moment conversation, consider the following and

the potential implications:



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■ Value — There is obvious value for Don in a quick response and medical treatment, as well as

the value of having the repairs, insurance and other things in place once he is able to deal with

them. The emergency responders derive value from being able to perform their duties more

efficiently and effectively, and the repair company stands to derive financial value. However,

what other value is created in this scenario? Are there other opportunities for "value" as yet

unidentified? What kind of financial or other value is there, and by whom? Keep in mind that, in

a consumer-directed economy, reputational value may be as or more significant in the long run

than financial.

■ People — There is a positive impact on the lives of all the participants: Emergency responders

have critical information to make their tasks easier before they arrive; the victims get faster and

more-targeted care; the hospital doctors and nurses know what they need to do before the

ambulance arrives at their door; and the various business people can make faster informed

decisions. Critical activities are carried out with less effort and risk within the coordinated

ecosystem of information. What other people might be included in the scenario? How would

they interact or even know about the potential for involvement? What people are involved with

monitoring, approving and interacting with the various types of automated smart systems in thescenario?

■ Businesses — This scenario suggests a disruptive potential for businesses. A smartphone may

send the car damage report to repair and insurance companies in its contact list or to all nearby

companies, either very close or at some distance, as determined by an Internet search. The

latter provides an opportunity for new organizations to replace previously used ones. What

other businesses might be involved in the scenario? What opportunities for products, services,

experiences or information are possible? Are there additional opportunities to drive engagement

and loyalty? What new businesses, smart systems, industries or people might disrupt the

involvement of the players? What are the implications for your enterprise and industry?

■ Things — The things in this scenario are participants, not just controllers. They exchange

information with businesses and people in a continuous dance of intelligent and autonomous

negotiation. Businesses that make things should examine all the possible integration points

contained inside the moment, such as the ability of the car to detect defects or hazards and

recommend solutions. Technical processes that normally were closed and contained within

operational technology (OT) are now exposed as connected and integrated with the world of

people. Does your enterprise have things or services that could similarly be made available? Is

there an opportunity for your offerings to provide information about themselves, their status or

capabilities? What about your internal processes? Can they be exposed, connected and

integrated with the world of people?

■ Adjacent business moments — As we developed this business moment, we identified severalothers that could be connected. You may identify even more moments:

■ Autonomous vehicles — Autonomous emergency vehicles are in constant communication

with their respective bases and traffic networks, while EMTs utilize less-traffic-sensitive

vehicles to arrive at the scene.



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■ Health services — Pharmacies and medical supply units either in the hospital or external to

the hospital, should specialized trauma care, medications or other needs arise, use the

transmitted medical information to trigger ER deliveries. The victim's available medical

information may also result in rerouting to a specialist in another hospital.

■ Rental companies — Car rental companies vie for providing Don or his family with atemporary vehicle or chauffeur services.

■ Taxi companies — A taxi appears at Don's house offering to take the family to the hospital.

■ Competitive dynamics — With initiatives such as the European Commission's adoption of two

proposals2 to ensure that, by October 2015, cars will automatically call emergency services in

case of a serious crash, will smartphone companies or apps need to take on a different role?

Will there be a search engine optimization "arms race" among hospitals or insurance or even

emergency response companies to gain the business?

■ Security and risk — What are the risks to Don in this scenario? What happens to privacy, and

will the U.S. Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)3 and similar policies

allow the real-time medical information transactions? Does the availability of information that

elicited the taxi's offer make Don's house suddenly vulnerable to a break-in? What risks are

involved in the smartphone app that is brokering the event? How would you define

requirements and test cases? How would you test such a system? What is the "safety override"

for a rogue sensor? What keeps the sensors from being hacked? Are the video streams

available only in particular, negotiated circumstances?

■ Integration — Who will handle the integration and standardization of messages and

interoperability? This is especially important in the healthcare area to ensure accurate

transmission of information and to protect privacy. Will the government be involved? Industries?

Groups such as the W3C?

■ Process — What changes to how we view process will be needed to create a flexible broker

able to account for the nuances and uncertainties in any emergency situation? How will brokers

"learn" from their experiences and improve their performance over time? How will business

processes change to accommodate external exposure and adapt to what happens next in novel

situations, all while maintaining any "secret sauce"? How will insights for improvement and

value be identified and incorporated?

■ Technology — In addition to the communications and information standards and protocols,

what other advances are needed for this scenario? Many of the automobiles, clothing

biosensors, digital emergency equipment and other devices are already in their infancy and in

use. Smart VPAs are under development that make Apple's current instantiation of Siri lookprimitive by comparison.

■ Talent — What types of talent are needed by the various players in this scenario? As

technology such as smart clothing replaces the need for people to take blood pressure or other

readings, what new skills will EMTs need to acquire? What new skills will insurance adjusters

need to acquire to remain relevant and provide value? As technology augments human

capabilities, what additional training, capabilities and mindsets will people need to begin to

adopt?



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The moments of opportunity and competition that lead to the gain or loss of a sale or the

transformation of an industry can happen in an instant. To a large extent, they are outside the

control of incumbent businesses and result from the relentless advancement of technologies, as

witnessed by the expansion of the Internet of Things and the Nexus of Forces of information, social,

mobile and cloud.

Business moments can be used to stimulate thinking around the possibilities. This research is part

of a series that highlights different business moments across a variety of industries and situations.

As more business moments are created, Gartner will be connecting them, and drawing out patterns

and even more questions. In the meantime, CIOs, IT leaders and business leaders should consider

the possibilities for their businesses or situations.

Car Crash Business Moment Scenario 2: Autonomous Devices Coordinate theResponse

Figure 6. The Car Crash Revisited

Source: Creative Commons image courtesy of Jeffrey Beall on Flickr

Crash!

The intersection was always busy and congested but especially during the workweek. Horn blowingwas a normal part of any surface travel in this section of the city. As soon as the light turned green,

the line of cars rapidly accelerated, gated only by the level of caution, if any, of the lead cars. The

line swept around the backs of the cars sticking into the intersection. Just as Don was turning the

corner, the line suddenly halted. Don stopped but was immediately pushed into the car in front of

him, and the airbag flew into his face, and everything went black.



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The (Local) Internet of Things Gets Busy

On impact, a number of things happen simultaneously. Don's smartphone detects the sudden

deceleration and airbag deployment, and calls the local emergency management response (EMR)

system with GPS information. When the airbag deployed, its sensor broadcasts an alert that was

picked up by a local EMR system. Using the GPS location information in both alerts, the EMRsystem identifies nearby available responders, analyzes traffic patterns and dispatches the fastest

ones to arrive at the location. Meanwhile, Don's smart clothing sensors tweet their information using

a priority hashtag that is picked up by the EMR, the first responders who are already en route and

the nearby hospitals, enabling them to prepare to treat Don.

The sensors in Don's car try but fail to connect with the car's main control module. Following their

rules, they independently tweet their status. The EMR system retweets the information to the first

responders as they converge on the scene. The auto sensor tweets are also picked up by towing

companies whose smart estimating systems analyze the car's manufacturer and model and

estimate the extent of damage, given the sensor information. In some cases, the estimating system

connects to the sensors, requesting additional or updated information. Once the smart systemestimates pass an automated approval test or receive approval from a human estimator, towing

companies' availability and bids are sent to the police. A quick Internet search fails to reveal Don's

insurance company but does provide his smartphone number. A quick connection and request

honored by the smartphone under its emergency operation rules provide the insurance company's

name from Don's contact list, and the bids are quickly passed on. A similar process unfolds

simultaneously from local auto repair companies.

As the police and fire responders secure and manage the scene, the EMTs scan Don's clothing

sensors to get an update and begin reviving and extracting him from his wrecked car. The medical

equipment they employ such as stethoscopes, blood pressure cuffs and eye pupil examination

lights all send their digital information to their onboard ambulance systems and the EMR. While theyare stabilizing and preparing Don for transport, the EMR system, in cooperation with emergency

room (ER) physicians, determine the best ER for Don, based on his injuries and location. Once the

ER is selected, all of the medical information is sent directly to the ER systems, which are kept

constantly updated.

Once Don is in the ambulance and on his way to the ER, his smartphone connects to the EMR

system, requests the destination, and alerts Don's family and emergency contacts via text and

voice messages.

Meanwhile, the systems of Don's insurance company have reviewed the towing and repair bids.

Following their triage and assessment rules, the systems identify the best bids based on company

reputation and estimated costs. Bids that are approved by system rules or a human estimator are

converted into contracts by the systems. Once approved and electronically signed, they are sent

directly to the awarded company.

While all of this is happening, police and insurance company systems are locating, connecting to

and interrogating nearby video cameras to collect digital evidence of the crash as it occurred. At a

later point in time, the insurance company gathers all of the information and sends it to its lawyers

for assessment.



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In parallel to all this activity, Pat, a local entrepreneur, receives the set of the multiple broadcasts

and tweets compiled by her smart scanning agent. Noticing the amount of information available

from the video cameras, cars, traffic analysis system, and other devices and systems, Pat begins

thinking of ways to use that information to prevent such accidents. However, it is the lack of

information that catches her attention, and she quickly sketches out an idea to make the traffic

lights themselves smart enough to adjust to traffic flows. After some additional work and talking

with some of her maker friends, Pat launches a Kickstarter project that not only is quickly funded

but also catches the attention of some large municipal governments offering her assistance in

setting up her new business.

Analyzing the Business Moment

In this version of the scenario, the things have additional intelligence sufficient for them to be active,

relatively independent participants. This is the peer-to-peer intelligence IoT scenario where digitally

enabled things are not controlled by a centralized broker but behave as first-class objects (see

Figure 7).

Figure 7. Peer-to-Peer Intelligence Scenario of the Internet of Things

OrdinaryThings


CurrentState of the

Art

CentralizedBrokerages


Centralized

Distributed

INTELLIGENCE



In this scenario, the different devices have a built-in sense of their needs, resources and capabilities

within their advancing intelligence (see Figure 8). The devices don't need the central brokerage as

much as they need to know who or what they are (how they are to function), where they are



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(spatially as in GPS location or what system they are part of), and their "availability" (what

information they have to share passively on request, actively on a communication trigger or

proactively based on rules of engagement).

Figure 8. Scenario 2's Business Moment Value Stream

Two carscollide!

Insurance companysends contracts

Repair companiessend bids to the

insurancecompany

Smart clothingtweets status

Smartphone detectssudden deceleration, adds

GPS and makesemergency call

Police and the insurancecompany interrogate

nearby video cameras

Hospital is notifiedand updated

First responders areupdated

EMR systemdispatches first

responders

Airbagsends alert

Smartphonealerts emergencycontacts via text

messages

Car systemsbroadcast status

EMT equipment sendsdata to the ER as

EMTs work on injured

Towing companiesnotify police of

availability and sendbids to the

insurance company

Telecommunication

Catalyst

Thing

Person

Business

Internetbroadcast

Point-to-pointInternet

communication

Businessproposal

Businesscontract


Some devices may also need to know where and how (either directly or through negotiation) to get

needed information. The additional investment in peer-to-peer intelligent devices and things can be

justified on the basis of either the higher risk of damage or theft to them, or the value of the

information and capabilities they provide.



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The entire network of the IoT is also a communications network, allowing two components, such as

a towing company's bidding system and an insurance company's contracting system, to negotiate

combining themselves and pursuing an economic settlement of costs between them. As this

intelligence improves, the number of components that can negotiate together will only increase,

leading to the construction of major subassemblies and, eventually, full-scale mechanical or

electronic products, as well as combinations of services that we cannot yet imagine.

This more nondeterministic scenario starts with a self-awareness or self-definition of what resources

a device or thing provides and what it needs to perform its function. As things become smarter and

more independent, the level of negotiation will increase, and each thing will try to explore some

alternative paths. This scenario benefits greatly from the development of standards mentioned

earlier due to quality programs, as well as the uniformity introduced by centralization and

consolidation of back-office systems.

Table 2 summarizes the differences between Scenario 1's centralized brokerage and the peer-to-

peer Scenario 2. Unless otherwise noted, Scenario 1's information flow and requirements pertain to

Scenario 2 as well.



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Table 2. Industries and Requirements of the Scenario 2 Business Moment




Requirements

Consumerelectronics

■ Sends location and other crash information

to the EMR system, and later sends

hospital and other information to the family

■ Knowledge or access to

knowledge of implications or

appropriate responses to various

events — that is, decisioning rules

■ Open access to the local EMR

system

■ Text or voice message creation

Government ■ Negotiates, determines and mandates

multichannel standardized data and

communications protocols

■ Support for multiple

communications channels and

bandwidth maintenance

Healthcare ■ Sends hashtag-specific tweets from smart

clothing to healthcare professional systems

■ Sends a continuous flow of health data

from medical devices and sensors to

healthcare providers and systems

■ Medical hashtag and data

standards

■ Traffic analysis rules or system

Financialservices

■ Receives independent bids from

companies and automated systems, with

human approval where needed, and

negotiates agreements

■ Peer-to-peer communication and

negotiation

Automotive ■ With onboard sensors and systems

automatically sending information,

continues to monitor conditions and

responds to requests for information

■ Proactive processes and

decisioning rules within sensors,

enabling their independence

■ Protocols for communicating

auto's sensor data

Retailers ■ Manufacturer's smart clothing sensors

contain rules for who and how to

proactively communicate data beyond

normal ranges

■ Towing and repair companies monitor

communications channels for relevant auto

and other sensor data

■ Processes containing specialized

hashtag and privacy protection

protocols

■ Proactive decisioning rules

specialized for each enterprise



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Requirements

Legal ■ Receives and analyzes information from

the insurance company, and sends a final

assessment


Implications of This Business Moment

Although this scenario contains the same set of players and information exchanges and many of the

implications as in Scenario 1, there are a number of very different implications:

■ Value — No one really "owns" this moment, and businesses and other players are free to

negotiate and derive whatever amount and type of value from it they can. The opencommunication also enables new business and business model opportunities. However, do the

provision and maintenance of the devices in this scenario increase, decrease or not affect the

total cost of ownership?

■ People — New people with very different perspectives and capabilities are able to join in peer-

to-peer business moments. This unpredictability is a source of new values as well as potential

concern. Although Don's medical and personal needs are met, neither he nor any other single

person is in control. What would aid or prohibit people from accepting such a system? Would it

be age- or demographic-dependent?

■ Businesses — This scenario has the most potential for disruption. New players, new

competition and new business models make this an uncertain world for any incumbent.

Competition among for-profit enterprises, including hospitals, trauma centers, and even

individual medical specialists and clinics, implies an arms race to remain relevant, not just in the

lead. What impact would such a distributed intelligent system have on your business? Would it

open or restrict value-creating opportunities?

■ Things — This is a relatively loose association of things that are active participants. The

exchange of information and active negotiation among systems and with people engender a

highly dynamic flow of information and decisions. What would a highly adaptive, agile and

responsive supply chain look like under this model? How would negotiations occur to ensure

new suppliers took the place of no-longer-needed ones, while maintaining a smooth flow

among the rest of the chain? What would determine how much intelligence and autonomy areneeded for a device? What might cause this scenario to become untenable? To be the default

system?

■ Adjacent business moments — In addition to the adjacent business moments listed above in

Scenario 1, a peer-to-peer scenario affords the possibility of a myriad set of opportunities

limited only by imagination and creativity. From the perspective of your or another industry,

what other business moments might be possible within this scenario?



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■ Competitive dynamics — See the bullet point for competitive dynamics in Scenario 1 above.

■ Security and risk — Security and risk in this scenario, as with any nondeterministic system, are

bounded by the rules by which each device, system and person operates. Devices and systems

need to know not only who or what and where they are, but also their rules of engagement — to

whom and how they are to send information, negotiation parameters and so forth. There maybe additional privacy implications, especially from a regulatory perspective, not found in

Scenario 1, but how might they be mitigated? However, this scenario does not have a single

point of failure as in Scenario 1 (the smartphone). Does this increase or decrease security and

risk?

■ Integration — Integration in this scenario is an emergent property. What kind of gating or

management rules could be included in a device's intelligence to promote efficient integration?

At what level of complexity — number of devices, types of information, negotiation

combinations and competing outcomes — does the ability, people's or the systems', to

manage the process devolve to a dysfunctional level?

■ Process — What changes in how people view systems and processes are implied by this

scenario? What process changes will be required to utilize a flow of real-time, perhaps

competing, information? For example, Don's smart clothing transmits differing but consistent

data from what the EMR devices at the scene transmit to the hospital.

■ Technology — In this scenario, there is an increased level of trust in technological devices and

systems and in people's ability to interact with them. One of the crucial underpinnings of this

trust is the rules of engagement that inform the negotiations and interactions. What are the

implications for responsible development of intelligent devices? Would safeguards need to be

considered, and for what reasons?

■

Talent — In addition to the technical talent implied by the preceding paragraph, businesspeople would need additional capabilities to monitor, analyze and effectively use information

from hitherto unknown devices and systems. Human "information processing" will take on a

new dimension requiring higher-level cognitive capabilities. What would be the impact of this

scenario on your current and planned talent pool? Would your talent pool become primarily one

of young app-literate, multidevice users?

One car crash, two very different scenarios. The common thread, however, is the involvement of

myriad devices in dynamically exploiting a transient opportunity. In the emerging digital business

era, transient events will provide opportunities and competition that can lead to gain or loss of value

or the transformation of your industry. Use these business moment examples to stimulate thinking

and provide vehicles for discussion, not about the details of the stories but about the implications

for your enterprise.

As more business moments are created, Gartner will be connecting them, and drawing out patterns

and even more questions.

What Is Digital Business?

Digital business is the creation of new business designs by blurring the digital and physical worlds.

It promises to usher in an unprecedented convergence of people, business and things that disrupts



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existing business models and creates new revenue opportunities in its wake. By 2020, more than 7

billion people and businesses, and at least 35 billion devices, will be connected to the Internet. With

people, businesses and things communicating, transacting and even negotiating with one another,

a new world comes into being — the world of digital business (see Figure 9).

Figure 9. Digital Business


Gartner Recommended ReadingSome documents may not be available as part of your current Gartner subscription.

"Agenda Overview for Digital Business, 2014"

"Digital Businesses Will Compete and Seek Opportunity in the Span of a Moment"

"What the Board of Directors Needs to Know About Digital Business"

"A First Step to Determine Whether Your Enterprise Even Needs a Digital Business Strategy Now"



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Evidence

1 J. Billhorn, "Get Ready for the Internet of Everything Economy," BizTech, 13 March 2014.

2 European Commission press release, "eCall: Automated Emergency Call for Road Accidents

Mandatory in Cars From 2015," 13 June 2013.

3 U.S. HIPAA of 1996 Privacy Rule.


http://www.hhs.gov/ocr/privacy/http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-534_en.htmhttp://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-534_en.htmhttp://www.biztechmagazine.com/article/2014/03/get-ready-internet-everything-economy


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