business disruption opportunity or risk? · 2018-06-04 · the it stack: compute, storage, service...
TRANSCRIPT
6/1/2018
1
Brad Rutan, CFA
Director, Investment Product Specialist
MFS Investment Management®
The views expressed in this presentation are those of MFS and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any other MFS investment product.
38155.2
Business Disruption – Opportunity or Risk?
• Why is business disruption accelerating?
• Major shifts occurring in the global economy
• Changes in consumer behavior
• Changes in business behavior
• Artificial intelligence
• With these shifts come large shifts in profit pools
• Will create winners/losers
• Know what you own
Agenda
2
6/1/2018
2
When should you own innovators?"s Curve"
% U
ser
Ad
op
tio
n
Time
Contact
Awareness
Trial Use
Understanding
Adoption
Maturity
Saturation
3
Why is disruption happening on such a large scale?Steeper "S Curves"
Source: CLSA, as of 12/28/15.
% o
f p
op
ula
tio
n a
do
ptin
g te
ch
no
log
y
4
6/1/2018
3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Electricity
Telephone
Radio
Television
PC
Mobile phone
Internet
Years until use by 1/4 of US population
Years until use by 1/4 of US population
Why is disruption happening on such a large scale?Adoption rates accelerating for technology
Source: Citi Global Perspectives & Solutions "Disruptive innovations II" published July 2015 (latest data available)
5
Source: HSBC. A digital native is defined as someone that has spent their entire secondary education age onwards in a country where the internet saturation rate is above 50%.
Why is disruption happening on such a large scale?Population of digital natives exploding
6
6/1/2018
4
Source: Intel as of 12/31/16.
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
1971 1972 1974 1978 1982 1985 1989 1993 1997 1999 2000 2002 2003 2008 2010 2012 2016
Moore's Law
Intel Itanium Processor
Intel Xeon Phi Processor
Intel 8080
Intel Pentium Processor
# tr
ansi
sto
rs o
n a
pro
cess
or
Intel 286
Why is disruption happening on such a large scale?Computing power is exploding
7
Disruption in major profit poolsSmartphone penetration has surged but growth slowing
8
Source: Kleiner Perkins / Morgan Stanley Research May 2017.
6/1/2018
5
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Print Radio TV Desktop/laptop Mobile
US time spent US ad dollars spent
$16
$20B
Disruption in major profit poolsAdvertising
9
Source: Magna Global, eMarketer. As of 6/30/2016.
10
Sources: Kleiner Perkins May 2017 /bNewzoo Global eSports Market Report (2/17), Newzoo press release (1/16), Newzoo Casual Connect
Europe Presentation (2/15)
Disruption in major profit poolsMedia/Advertising
6/1/2018
6
11
Disruption in major profit poolsMedia/Advertising
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Millenials Non-millenials All responses
Popularity of eSports vs. traditional sports is growing
No preference Slightly prefer favorite traditional sport
Significantly prefer favorite traditional sport Slighlty prefer favorite eSports
Significantly prefer favorite eSport
27%
13%
27%
15%
18%
13%
13%
45%
11%
20%
21%
13%
34%
13%
19%
Source: L.E.K 2017 Sports Survey (February 2017)
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
E-Commerce Share of Total Retail Sales 1998 Through 2016
Disruption in major profit poolsBrick and mortar retailing
12
Source: US Census Bureau, Comscore, Empirical Research Partners Analysis.
6/1/2018
7
Source: ICSC September 2015 (latest data available).
Country Shopping Center
GLA (sq ft)
Population
(millions)
GLA per capita
U.S. 7,527 319 24
Canada 542 36 15
U.K. 318 64 5
France 264 64 4
Italy 171 60 3
Spain 142 46 3
Germany 195 80 2
Disruption in major profit poolsBrick and mortar retailing
13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
BPaaS SaaS PaaS IaaS
To
tal p
ub
lic c
loud
ma
rke
ts (
US
$B
)
Disruption in major profit poolsThe IT stack: compute, storage, service
14
Source: Forrester Research. Most recent data available. ("E" denotes estimates)
As-of 9/1/2016
BPaaS: Business Process as a Service, SaaS: Software as a Service, PaaS: Platform as a Service and IaaS: Infrastructure as a Service
6/1/2018
8
Sources: CLSA / IDC, as of 12/31/15 (latest data available), forecast 2016 – 2020.
Disruption in major profit poolsThe IT stack: compute, storage, service
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Global sales of biologics/biosimilars
Brand biologics Biosimilars
Disruption in major profit poolsPharmaceuticals
16
Source:. Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions, July 2015
Estimates for 2016 to 2025
6/1/2018
9
340
169
340
1767
423
Semis PCs Handsets Autos Auto Suppliers
Market size ($billion revenue)
Disruption in major profit poolsAutos
17Sources: Bernstein "Global Energy Storage & Electric Vehicles" paper. February 2017. Strategy Analytics, Gartner, IDC, Bloomberg, Bernstein.
Steal
Aluminum
Plastic
…
Auto parts
ECU
…
Engine Traditional car
OEM
Dealers Dealers
OEM
Oil Changes
Lithium Graphite
Cobalt
Nickle
…
Battery
components
Battery
Semiconductors
Traditional car
OEM
New players
Dealers/ Direct
sale
Battery
components
Battery
Semiconductors
Sensors
Traditional car
OEM
New players
Dealers/ Direct
sale
ADAS-software
AI-Learning
Mobility Apps-
i.e. Uber
Value
Value
Value
Traditional
car
Electric
Vehicle
Autonomous
Electric
Vehicle
Disruption in major profit poolsAutos
18
Sources: Bernstein "Global Energy Storage & Electric Vehicles" paper. February 2017.
Value
6/1/2018
10
Every year, 50% digital data growth
Every minute,
• 200 million emails sent
• 2 million Facebook posts
• 3 million Google searches
60 trillion webpages
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Dig
ital D
ata
World
wid
e
Source: Google; Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable (published 2016).
Artificial intelligenceRecent data growth necessary for artificial intelligence
19
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
2016 2017e 2018E 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e
Artificial Intelligence Revenue, World Markets: 2016-2025
Source: Tractica as of latest data available (2/28/17). Years 2017-2025 are estimates.
Artificial intelligenceWe expect to see an explosion of AI generated revenues
Rev
enu
e (i
n m
illio
ns)
20
6/1/2018
11
Artificial intelligenceArtificial intelligence could dramatically boost productivity
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Sweden
Finland
United States
Japan
Austria
Germany
Netherlands
United Kingdom
France
Belgium
Italy
Spain
Potential boost to productivity of labor from artificialintelligence
Source: Accenture Institute for Higher Performance, in collaboration with Frontier Economics. Report dated 9/28/16.
21
2.6
2.1
2.5
1.7 1.61.4 1.4
1.7
0.8
1.6 1.7
1.0
4.6
4.13.9
3.6
3.23.0 3.0 2.9
2.7 2.72.5
1.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Basline AI steady state
Artificial intelligenceArtificial intelligence could dramatically boost growth
Source: Accenture Institute for Higher Performance, in collaboration with Frontier Economics. Report dated 9/28/16. Chart compares baseline growth by 2035 to an artificial intelligence scenario where AI has been absorbed into the economy
Annual growth rates by 2035 of gross value added (a close approximation of GDP)
%
22
6/1/2018
12
Source: Jefferies research report on technology dated February 6, 2017
Artificial intelligenceBreadth and depth of companies investing in AI is exploding
The breadth of industries investing in artificial intelligence is exploding (number of companies
working with NVIDIA on deep learning)
23
"If you don't like
change…you will like
irrelevance even less."-General Eric Shinseki
24
6/1/2018
13
THANK YOU
Issued in the United States by MFS Institutional Advisors, Inc. ("MFSI") and MFS Investment Management. Issued in Canada by MFS Investment Management Canada Limited. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed this communication. Issued in the United Kingdom by MFS International (U.K.) Limited ("MIL UK"), a private limited company registered in England and Wales with the company number 03062718, and authorised and regulated in the conduct of investment business by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MIL UK, an indirect subsidiary of MFS, has its registered office at One Carter Lane, London, EC4V 5ER and provides products and investment services to institutional investors globally. This material shall not be circulated or distributed to any person other than to professional investors (as permitted by local regulations) and should not be relied upon or distributed to persons where such reliance or distribution would be contrary to local regulation. Issued in Hong Kong by MFS International (Hong Kong) Limited ("MIL HK"), a private limited company licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (the "SFC"). MIL HK is a wholly-owned, indirect subsidiary of Massachusetts Financial Services Company, a US based investment adviser and fund sponsor registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. MIL HK is approved to engage in dealing in securities and asset management regulated activities and may provide certain investment services to "professional investors" as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance ("SFO"). Issued in Singapore by MFS International Singapore Pte. Ltd., a private limited company registered in Singapore with the company number 201228809M, and further licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Issued in Latin America by MFS International Ltd. For investors in Australia: MFSI and MIL UK are exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the financial services they provide to Australian wholesale investors. MFS International Australia Pty Ltd (" MFS Australia") holds an Australian financial services licence number 485343. In Australia and New Zealand: MFSI is regulated by the US Securities & Exchange Commission under US laws and MIL UK is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority under UK laws, which differ from Australian and New Zealand laws. MFS Australia is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
Unless otherwise indicated, logos, product and services names are trademarks of MFS and its affiliates and may be registered in certain countries.
25