Building theElectron Economy

Robert Cormia

Foothill College

Energy Solutions => 2030

• GHG emissions– Climate change

• Energy security• Sustainability =>

‘Energy Equity’

We have less than 20 years to address and solve these problems

Overview

• Three problems – one solution – 20 years

• GHG limits, climate risk, 80:20 reduction

• Energy independence => fossil fuel dependence, hunter gatherer model

• Energy equity – new energy model

• Systemic change - subsystems approach

• New electricity model (DG/IG) – transform energy system from inside out

Energy Issues

• GHG emissions => 450 ppm– Lower GHGs 80% in 20 years

• Energy security, economics, environmental, geopolitics– Dependence vs. independence– Hunter gatherer model is broken

• Systemic energy principles– Clean generation, smart distribution,

efficient end-use => systemic change

Vostok Ice Core Data•A near perfect correlation between CO2, temperature, and sea level•For every one ppm CO2, sea level rises 1 meter, temp rises .05 C (global)•Process takes 100 years to add 1 ppm CO2, and reach thermal equilibrium

This is not just a correlation, this is a complex and dynamic process, with multiple inputs. A biogeochemical thermostat. Touching one input affects all other inputs, and increases in temperature becomes a further feedback and multiplier of these inputs.

Earth Out of Balance

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/

Accelerating Change

• Heat storms• Droughts• Storm intensity• Fires / duration• Ice quakes

• Methane release• Sea ice extent• pH of the ocean• Pest migration• Sea level rise

Ecosystem degradation, loss of biodiversity, failure of ecosystem services

80:20/2050 Stretch Goal

• By 2035, reduce GHGs by 80%– Reduce petroleum by 75%– Eliminate the use of coal– Add significant renewables

• By 2050, one ton CO2 per capita

– Re-innovate nuclear power– Electrify transportation, HVAC– Carbon capture / GHG sequestration

Vision the Electron Economy

A Subsystems Approach

• Renewable energy• Distribution systems• Smart energy / AMI• Energy efficiency• LEED / green building

• Electric vehicles• Alternative fuels• Batteries / fuel cells• Urban planning• GHG sequestration

Smart energy Smart cities

Smart citizens

Smart policy

EE 5-6 Key Subsystems

• Renewable energy

• Transportation

• Building efficiency

• Storage and conversion

• Smart energy / microgrid

• GHG Sequestration*

GHG Sequestration is employed to reduce the ‘energy imbalance’ in the atmosphere

Systemic Energy Principles

• Energy value chain• ‘Smart energy system stack’

– Clean generation– Smart distribution– Efficient end-use

• Electricity value chain– Right sourcing energy – Clean energy circuits

Energy Systems Model

Central Power Systems

Large-scale Renewables

Distributed Resources

Smart Energy Systems

Advanced Transportation

Building Energy Efficiency

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3

5

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Natural gas & nuclear

de-centralizedlow-carbon

EV/PHEVDR/AMI/EMS

EMS/

DM

S/G

IS

integration integration

Macrogrid

Microgrid

Nanogrid

Clean generation

Smart distribution

Efficient end use

Holarchy Systems Model

Nanogrid

Microgrid

Macrogrid

Renewable Energy

100 GW Utility Scale Solar

200 GW Utility Scale Wind

Offset Afternoon LoadsProduce 150B kWh

Offset Coal GenerationProduce 540B kWh

100 GW Utility Hydro Electric

Base Load ElectricityProduce 240B kWh

Every parking space can have solar PV generating clean electricity

Concentrating Sun Power

Building a Solar Economy

• Solar power is a primary, not alternative energy

• 25% of electricity could be generated by solar in 2025

• Solar brings true energy independence from carbon

• It requires a commitment, not just an investment of $s

• Research in newer thin film technology shows promise Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry

Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005

http://www.solarelectricpower.org/

Wind Power – Real Power

Eliminate Coal

• Coal is 50% of electricity today

• Responsible for 40% US GHG emissions

• Responsible for 80% electricity emissions

• Replace coal with natural gas and wind– Natural gas has 50% lower GHGs– Wind can provide significant energy

• Invest in modernized nuclear power– Thorium, Pebble Bed Modular Reactors

GHG Emissions by Source

Carbon Intensity of Energy

An ideal mixture of primary energy for electricity requires significant renewables

2030 Electricity Makeup

• 100 GW nuclear 8.76 x 10^11 kWh• 200 GW natural gas 1.75 x 10^12 kWh• 100 GW solar 1.50 x 10^11 kWh• 200 GW wind 5.84 x 10^11 kWh• 100 GW hydro 2.50 x 10^11 kWh• Total system production ~3.6 x 10^12 kWh

Final mix of US electrical energy would be the same as California today:~50% natural gas, ~25% nuclear, ~25% renewable (solar, wind, and hydro)

Transportation

Decrease ‘gasoline’demand 50% to 200 mgd

Blend 50% of ‘gasoline’with advanced biofuels

Increase CAFE from 20 to 50 mpg

Increase ‘biofuels’from 35 to 100 mgd

A combination of efficiency and blending out petroleum reduces GHG emissions

Reduce Petroleum

• Cut petrol two-thirds by 2030

• It’s a 12 step program!

• We made a bad decision

• And we need a new vision– A world not built around petrol– A world not built around carbon

Accelerating Costs

Has anyone burned a $5 bill lately? Of course not – who would burn money?

Petroleum Reduction• Efficiency (20 mpg to 50 mpg)

– Reduce liquid fuels from 400 to < 200 mgd)

• Advanced biofuels (not food based)– Yeast, algae, cellulosic ethanol, etc

• Blend biofuel with petrol/bitumen 50:50– High carbon fuel @ 1.25 carbon units– Low carbon fuel @ 0.25 carbon units

• Hydrocarbon reduction 370 to ~100 mgd– 200 mgd of ‘biofuel blend’ (0.75 carbon units)

Petroleum Reduction Graphic

• Begin at 20 mpg, 3 x 10^12 VMT 400 mgd

• ~ 35 mgd of corn ethanol

• At 50 mpg CAFE, transpo fuel < 200 mgd

• Petroleum reduced from 370 to <100 mgd

• Biofuels increased from ~40 to ~ 80 mgd

• GHGs =>1.5 x 10^9 tons => 6 x 10^8 tons

Biosynthetic Fuels

• Biofuels not agrifuels

• GMO

• Yeast

• Algae

• Lipids

• Biosynthetic diesel

Amyris Biotechnology http://www.amyris.com/

Live Without Petroleum?

• Americans drive 8 billion miles a day

• Full EVs use ~0.3 KwHr per mile– We’d need 2.5 billion KwHrs a day for EV

• We use ~10 B KwHrs electricity / day– What if we saved 25% (bldg efficiency)?– We’d have 2.5 billion KwHrs a day for EV

• Move to EV and not burn more carbon?– Yes, but it takes a really big commitment!

PHEV Advantages

Google.org study of PHEV efficiencyhttp://www.google.org/recharge/

Halfway to an all electric vehicle – Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)

A Real Electric Vehicle

http://www.teslamotors.com/

Too Many Cars!

Los Angeles, California in 2030

High Speed High Speed Up to 150 mphUp to 150 mph

Scalable Networks Scalable Networks Local, Regional, National ServiceLocal, Regional, National Service

Low Maintenance Low Maintenance Uses maglev instead of wheelsUses maglev instead of wheels

Under 1000 lbs. Under 1000 lbs. Uses aerodynamic vehiclesUses aerodynamic vehicles

Energy Efficient Energy Efficient Up to 500 mpg (50 W-hr / mile)Up to 500 mpg (50 W-hr / mile)

Zero CarbonZero Carbon Solar and/or Wind PoweredSolar and/or Wind Powered

Move Differently

• SolarSegway™• Range ~8 - 12 miles• Battery packs can be

charged locally (~5 hrs)• Emission free vehicle

– Solar panels ‘extra’

• Projected cost of $2,500 in quantity

Efficient Buildings

High Efficiency(25% less energy)

Building IntegratedPhotovoltaic (BIPV)

EMS/BMS/DEMSSmart Energy

Decrease total electricity by ~15% => 500B kWh

Produce ~10 to 15% building energy onsite

Integrate smart energy (DR) into energy mgmt

Sustainability Base

Storage and Conversion

Provide local on demand energy for RE integration

Affordable PHEV/BEV

Provide onsite / local electrical cogeneration

Develop 10 to 50 GWUtility Scale Storage

High Efficiency (66%) Fuel Cells(cogeneration)

Battery specific energy 250 wH/kg $100 to $250 / kWh

Storage and Conversion

• Strive for 50 to 60% conversion efficiency for natural gas fuel cells and gas turbines

• Flex natural gas turbines support RE

• $0.20 kWh for utility scale energy storage

• Increase mobile battery storage technology– Weak link in electric vehicle adoption– Specific energy and cost reduction targets– Target 500 wH per kg at $125 per kWh

Bloom EnergyThe Bloom Box is the latest energy miracle that sounds too good to be true: Debuting with a wide-eyed segment on 60 Minutes, it promises to be clean, cheap and backyard-friendly, the solution to our energy problems. What is it? The heart of the box is a fuel cell. Though Bloom Energy's CEO K.R. Sridhar—a former NASA scientist—says it's a new kind of fuel cell. And though it's cleaner than any combustion engine out there, it still relies on fossil fuels and biofuels—not just hydrogen, like some other kinds of fuel cells do. Nevertheless, the folks at Bloom are doing something that could help make reduced emissions a reality for big businesses first, and then later, for homes.

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/02/bloom-fuel-cell/

Catching the Wind

Vanadium high capacity flow cellsDistributed ‘Electron Liquidity’

EnerVault

Flow Cell Batteries for Utility Scale Storage

Battery Technology

Smart Energy / Platform

Smart Energy Application Platform

Electric Vehicle Charging Network

Renewable Energy (Wind and Solar)

Building Energy Management (DEMS)

High performance storage / conversion

Smart Energy System Stack

Clean generation

Smart distribution

Efficient end use

Flow of Energy

Flow of Information

Electrical Generation

Electrical Use

SYS-STEMic Energy principles described in Foothill College NSF-ATE Energy Program proposal October 2010

Three Utility Challenges

• RPS goals– 33% PV– Distributed generation

• Electric Vehicles– Load management– Infrastructure development

• Integrate new electrical technology– Internet, smart meter (AMI), smart grid– DC technology (buildings as nanogrids)

Getting Smart about Smart Energy

• Smart energy: – Defined– Paradigm– Benefits– Opportunities– IEEE consortium

http://www.sensorsmag.com/sensors/ Designing-Smart-Energy-Devices/

Smart Energy Defined

• Integrating key technologies– Power grid / distribution– Power generation (RE)– Power systems & AMI– Transportation systems– Telecommunications (HAN)– Information Technology (IT)

• A Smart Grid transforms the way power is delivered, consumed and accounted for. Adding intelligence throughout the newly networked grid increases reliability and power quality; improves responsiveness; increases efficiency; handles current and future demand; potentially reduces costs for the provider and consumer; and provides the communication platform for new applications (The Smart Grid in 2010 – Green Tech Media Research)

IntelliGrid™ - Smart Grid

http://intelligrid.epri.com/

e- Application Platform

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Smart Energy Logic Layer - AMI

Active Distribution Power Systems Layer

Util

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Smart Energy Solutions

• Powerline networking - upgrade network technology without affecting power systems

• Build AMI/DA into the same system• Integrate metering/analytics into smart

panels, giving buildings ‘active diagnostics’• Build small scale microgrids with nanogrid

communication and active distribution• Develop use cases for smart energy circuits

A New Energy Economy

• $1 - 2 trillion in solar and wind energy• $1 trillion in a new power grid• $2.5 trillion in fuel saving cars

– $1 trillion in new electric motor and battery technology for cars and other appliances

• Smart energy for the electron economy – a melding of the Internet and ‘the grid’

• This is a once in a lifetime opportunity!

Problems/Challenges

• Developing and deploying a new power system while an existing one is in place

• ‘grafting’ internet technology into power systems isn’t a complete architectural model

• Job of replacing the current distribution grid is not insignificant – it took 50 years to build it

• ICT / technology is evolving at a much faster rate than power systems technology

Synergies and Why• Energy storage – EVs and RE integration

• Adv. Biofuels – blend with petroleum

• Smart energy systems – grid stability

• High efficiency buildings and EMS/BMS – energy reduction and load management

• Gas turbines – flex to integrate RE

• Fuel cell – local natural gas electricity– Local energy ‘firming’ for RE integration

• Smart Energy – connecting all the pieces

An Apollo Program?

• 2035 => 25 year vision

• Connecting the dots

• Mission and a purpose

• Milestones and timeline

• We can do this in 20 years! http://apolloalliance.org/

Energy Equity – 5 million jobs

Where to Learn More• DOE smart grid -http://www.oe.energy.gov/smartgrid.htm

• Global Smart Energy - http://www.globalsmartenergy.com/

• Apollo Alliance - http://www.apolloalliance.org/

• PG&E Pacific Energy Center- http://www.pge.com/pec/

• Our Solar Power Future – http://www.sandia.gov/pv/docs/PDF/PV_Road_Map.pdf

• Wind Energy Report – AIWA http://www.awea.org/

• EPRI IntelliGrid - http://intelligrid.epri.com/

• Worldwatch Institute - http://www.worldwatch.org/