Building an evidence base for climate change adaptation in agriculture

The Zambian Experience

Presentation Outline

• Past and Present Initiatives

• Existing policies/plans to frame the NAP process in Zambia

• Examples of evidence base for the NAP process

• Building Blocks of CSA logical chain

• Questions answered by evidence base

• Selected EPIC outputs to guide NAP

• Policy support, capacity development & guiding investments

• Lessons Learnt

Past and Present Initiatives with potential adaptation benefits

• Soil Conservation and Agroforestry Extension project (SCAFE)

• Agricultural Sector Investment Programme (ASIP)

• Land Management and Conservation Farming programme (LM&CF)

• Agricultural Support Programme (ASP)

• Environmental Support programme

Past and Present Initiatives cont…

• Conservation Agriculture Prog. (CAP I&II by CFU)

• Conservation Agriculture Scaling Up (CASU)

• Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience in the Zambezi and Kafue Basin (PPCR)

• Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Agro ecological I & II of Zambia

• The FAO-EPIC Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Project (2011-2015)

Existing policies/plans to frame the NAP process in Zambia

• National Policy on Environment (NPE, 2005),

• Zambia’s Vision 2030 (2006)

• National Adaptation Plan of Action on CC (NAPA, 2007),

• National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS, 2010),

• National Agricultural Investment Plan (2013)

• Revised Sixth National Development Plan (R-SNDP, 2014),

• National REDD+ Strategy (2015),

• 2nd Nat’l Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP2, 2015).

• Forest Policy and Act of 2015

• National Agricultural Policy (2016)

• Climate Change Policy (2016)

Examples of evidence base for the NAP process

• An Empirical Economic Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zambia (Jain, 2007)

• The Economics of Climate Change in Zambia (2011)

• Current Climate Variability and Future Climate Change: Estimated Growth and Poverty Impacts for Zambia (Thurlowet al. 2011)

• Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) for Climate Change Adaptation (2013)

• In-Depth Vulnerability Needs Assessment Report (2015)

• EPIC evidence base – 2011 to date…

Building Blocks of EPIC-CSA logical chain

Assessing the situation

Identify barriers and enabling factors Managing

Climate Risk

Defining coherent policies

Guiding Investments

CSA builds evidence-based agricultural development strategies, policies and investment frameworks to improve food security, facilitate adaptation to climate change, and seek opportunities to mitigate GHG emissions compatibly with countries’ national food security and development goals.

Questions answered by evidence base

1. What are the past, current and projected impacts of CC on agriculture and livelihoods (dis-aggregated to sub-national level)?

2. What are the potential interventions that can increase food security under the projected negative impacts of CC (all sectors, including non-farm)?

3. How can the risk posed by CC be managed most effectively?

4. What are the barriers to adoption? Which institutions can best address these?

5. What are the potential mitigation benefits that can be captured where relevant?

Policy support, capacity development & guiding investments

• Facilitate policy harmonization of the National Agricultural Policy (NAP) and the draft National Policy on Climate Change (NPCC)

• CSA training modules for extension staff

• Support MsC and PhD training in CSA related topics

• Sector training in EXACT and scenario building

• Country CSA framework encompassing all evidence base to mobilize financing (e.g. GEF, GCF…)

Selected EPIC outputs to guide NAP

1. Adoption and impact of agricultural practices with CSA potential under climate shocks

2. Cost-Benefit analyses of improved practices

3. CC mitigation and smallholder agriculture

4. Agriculture-charcoal interactions as determinants of deforestation (input to UNREDD+ Strategy)

5. Livestock and CC mitigation in Zambia

6. Diversification in the context in CSA in Zambia

7. A strategic framework for CSA in Zambia

Lessons Learnt Practical challenges faced by CSA project

– Data still scarce to build a coherent evidence base

– Balancing practice-based approach with broader development policy & integration in existing policies

– Practical indicators for adaptation vs. development?

– Linking evidence base to policy and investment requires continuous support

– Communication challenges in describing links to stakeholders

General Challenges faced by CSA

– Balancing risk management with incentives to adapt

– Developing reasonable baselines to assess policy impact against is difficult

– Role of institutions in CSA poorly understood

– Agricultural mitigation can be a controversial issue

– High MRV costs can cancel benefits of financing options

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