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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Sustainable adaptation in English agriculture

Dr Nicholas Macgregor

Principal specialist in landscape adaptation

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Outline

• Agriculture in England and projected climate changes

• Sustainable adaptation and its relevance to agriculture

• Exploring adaptation options for English agriculture

• Communication & engagement

• Policy analysis

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Agriculture in England and projected climate change

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Agriculture in EnglandData from Chesterton (2009)

Upland grazingLowland grazing

Arable

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

More than just food production

Carbon storage Water

Biodiversity Landscapes

Recreation

Historic features

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Backdrop to adaptation

• Small country

• Lots of people

• Most land is agricultural

• Clear need for ‘multifunctional land use’

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Projected climatic changes

• Hotter drier summers• Wetter (and warmer) winters• Increased storms and heavy rain• Sea level rise• Effects vary across regions• Variability and unpredictability

• Agricultural systems will be affected by these changes (+ and -); changes already seen

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Agricultural systems are sensitive to climate change

• All services from agricultural land come from modified or natural ecosystem processes

• Affected and limited by factors such as temperature and water availability

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141 years of harvest date records, Sussex, UK

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Specific weather-related events:

• 2006 summer heatwave: good for fruit crop, bad for wheat crop

• 2007 summer floods: estimated to have cost the agricultural sector £50.7 million

• Bluetongue cattle disease Flooded fields in Lincolnshire, 2007

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

So adaptation is essential

• To maintain agricultural production and sustainable supply of food

• To maintain the natural ecosystems on agricultural land that underpin farming and provide a wide range of other benefits to society

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

How should we approach adaptation?

Sustainable adaptation and its relevance to agriculture

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Important to understand there will be chains of possible effects, for example...

higher temperatures and lower rainfall

drought and reduced river flow

dieback of natural vegetation

reduced growth and yield of crops

Farmer increases abstraction of water or improves water efficiency or changes to more drought-tolerant crop

Negative consequences for environment if abstraction too high; benefits for environment if water efficiency improved

Effects higher up the food chain

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Adaptation must be sustainable

I. Try to maintain or enhance the environmental, social and economic benefits provided by a system, while accepting and accommodating inevitable changes to it.

II. Don’t solve one problem while creating or worsening others. Prioritise action that has multiple benefits and avoid creating negative effects for other people, places and sectors.

III. Try to increase resilience to a wide range of future risks.

IV. Adaptation must be flexible and not limit future action. Macgregor & Cowan (2011) in Adaptation in developed nations

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Sustainable adaptation is important in the context of agriculture

• Agricultural systems have a complex mixture of environmental, social and economic elements

• Farming depends on and influences natural resources

• Farmers’ adaptation actions could have significant positive or negative effects on other things

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Nicholas Macgregor ／ ニコラス・マクレガー

Have to look at all elements of the system together: agricultural production, people & nature

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