budget kickoff meeting 2014 · nevada budget division section 1 ‐slide 6 march 6, 2014 employment...
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 1
BUDGET KICKOFF MEETING2014
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 2
Economic Overview
Janet Rogers, Budget Economist
Section 1
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 3
Nevada Economic ForecastThen & Now
• Budget Kickoff 2010: Stormy– Economy still in freefall
• Budget Kickoff 2012: Cloudy– Signs that worst behind us
• Budget Kickoff 2014: Mostly sunny– Recovery under way
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 4
In 2010, Nevada ranked at the bottom in every measure.In 2014, Nevada is among the top in most categories.• Unfortunately, the competition is lackluster at best.
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 5
Unemployment• Unemployment rate steadily declining
– 9.0% in Dec. 2013 (2nd highest behind Rhode Island)• Lowest rate since November 2008• 5.0 percentage points lower than peak
• Long‐term unemployment remains a problem– Federally‐funded benefit extension stopped Dec. 28
• 17,000 Nevadan’s lost unemployment compensation
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 6
Employment Opportunities
• Number of jobs increasing since 2011– Grew 2.7% in CY 2013 compared to CY 2012
• Slower pace than in previous recoveries
– 60,000 private sector jobs added since 2010• Most sectors showing consistent improvement
– Still below peak by more than 115,000 jobs• 85,000 jobs in construction sector gone
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 7
Nevada Full & Part‐time Jobs by Sector
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 8
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 9
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 10
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 11
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 12
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 13
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 14
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 15
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 16
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 17
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 18
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 19
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 20
Nevada Retail Sales by Sector
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 21
Inflation‐Adjusted Per Capita Nevada Retail Sales by Sector
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 22
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 23
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 24
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 25
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 26
General Fund Outlook• May 2013 Economic Forum Forecast
– FY 2013: up 0.2% compared to FY 2012– FY 2014: up 1.2% compared to FY 2013– FY 2015: up 5.4% compared to FY 2014
• FY 2013 revenues 1.4 pct.pt. above forecast– 1.6% year‐over‐year increase
• FY 2014 revenues 0.3 pct.pt. below forecast ytd– 1.0% year‐over‐year increase
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 27
Conclusions
• Nevada’s economy is recovering– Not at rapid pace seen in past recoveries, but slow & steady beats boom & bust!
• Revenues are where they were forecast to be• No extreme change (up or down) anticipated
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BUDGET KICKOFF 2015‐2017 Biennium Executive Budget
March 6, 2014Nevada Budget Division Section 1 ‐ Slide 28
QUESTIONS?