Education,Inequality,andIncentives

RolandG.Fryer,Jr.HenryLeeProfessorofEconomics

HarvardUniversityHGSE,EdLabs,NBER

CONFIDENTIAL

AmongcitiesthatparticipateinNAEP,themagnitudeofracialdifferencesineducationalachievementisstartling.

OverviewTheAchievementGap

0102030405060708090

100

PercentProficient,8th GradeMath,NAEP2011

white

black

Hispanic

0102030405060708090

100

PercentProficient,8thGradeReading,NAEP2011

white

black

Hispanic

CONFIDENTIAL 3

WhyEdLabsWasFounded

Accountingforeducationalachievement drasticallyreducesracialandsocioeconomicinequalityacrossawiderangeofimportantlifeoutcomes.

28%

190%

283%

250%

87%

234%

-27%

141%

0.6%

90% 87%76%

42%

114%

137%

33%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Wages Unemployment HaveSavings Lessthan10Kinsavings

NegativeNetWorth

Donotownhome AnyCollege PublicAssistance

Black-WhiteDifferencesinEconomicOutcomes(NLSY79)BeforeandAfterControllingfor8thGradeTestScores

RawB/WGap AftercontrollingforAFQT

CONFIDENTIAL 4

WhyEdLabsWasFounded

126%

20%

820%

514%

0%

200%

400%

600%

800%

1000%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%

TeenPregnancy Childoutofwedlock

SocialOutcomes

RawB/WGap AftercontrollingforAFQT

0.20SD

0.059SD

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

SF-12MentalandPhysicalHealthIndex

HealthOutcomes

RawB/WGap AftercontrollingforAFQT

68%

182%

25%38%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

ViolentCrime Incarceration

CrimeOutcomes

RawB/WGap AftercontrollingforAFQT

0.28

-0.27

0.006

1.37

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Wages AnyCollege

EconomicOutcomes

RawB/WGap AftercontrollingforAFQT

CONFIDENTIAL

22.3:1

20.4:1

18.7:1

17.9:117.2:1 17.3:1

16.0:1 15.6:1

14:1

16:1

18:1

20:1

22:1

24:1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

StudenttoTeacherRatio

$5,243$6,049 $6,268

$7,347

$8,790 $8,949

$10,508$11,438

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

TotalExpenditurePerPupil(2008-09$))$12,116

23.5% 27.5%49.6% 53.1% 56.8% 61.8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006

PercentageofTeacherswithaMaster'sDegreeorHigher

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

1971 1975 1980 1984 1988 1990 1994 1996 1999 2004 2008

ReadingandMathAchievementof9,13,and17year-olds,1971-2008

9year-olds13year-olds17year-olds

ConventionalWisdomHasFailed

CONFIDENTIAL

TheProblem:DataSifters

• Socialscientistshavespentdecadestryingtoteaseoutcausalrelationshipsfromnon-experimentaldata

MajorApproach• ObservationalData:examinemoundsandmoundsofdata,invokingvariousassumptions,inanefforttomakecausalstatements– Legalizedabortionloweredcrime– TheEndangeredSpeciesActendangersspecies

Howwouldonegoaboutusingthisapproachineducation?

CONFIDENTIAL

A=f(C,H,S,P)

A=achievementC=thechild’s inputsH=thehousehold’s inputsS=theschool’sinputsP=therelevantprices

Touseeconomicprinciples,weneedtoknowthemarginalvalueofeachfactorandthemarginalcostofprovision

TheEducationProductionFunction

CONFIDENTIAL

• Basiceconomicprinciplesarenotcurrentlybeingapplied(e.g.MC=MR)

• Anewcropofvisionaryleadersareeagertoimplementchange(e.g.ArneDuncan,TerryGrier)

• Observationaldatahavenotbeenabletoprovidethesenewleaderswiththeanswerstheyneedtorevolutionizetheproductionofhumancapital

FieldExperimentsBalancing“Unobservables”

CONFIDENTIAL

MyFirstIdea:

Maybeweshouldgivekidsincentivesforachievement…

Incentives

CONFIDENTIAL

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Dallas:ReadingBooks D.C.:School-DeterminedInputs

Houston:MathAssignments

NYC:TestResults Chicago:ReportCardGrades

NYC:SchoolwideTestScores

ImpactofIncentiveProgramsonStudentAchievement

IncentivesMon

thso

fSchoo

ling

TeacherIncentives

StudentOutputIncentives

StudentInputIncentives

CONFIDENTIAL

MySecondIdea:

Maybeweshouldgiveteachersincentivesforachievement…

CONFIDENTIAL

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0NYStateELA NYState

MathRegentsELA Regents

Math

Mon

thsofSchoo

ling

TreatmentEffectsofTeacherIncentiveProgram:NYC

Elementary

MiddleSchool

HighSchool

Incentives

CONFIDENTIAL

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

LossTreatment GainTreatment AnyTreatment

MathScores

TreatmentEffectsofTeacherIncentiveProgram:Chicago

Incentives

CONFIDENTIAL

MyThirdIdea:

Maybeweshouldgiveparentsincentivesforstudentachievement…

CONFIDENTIAL

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

StandardizedCognitiveScore

StandardizedNon-CognitiveScore

LATETreatmen

tEffect(instand

ard

deviations)

TreatmentEffectsinParentAcademy

"Cash"Treatment

"College"Treatment

PooledTreatment

CONFIDENTIAL

My379th Idea:

Copysomeoneelse…

ResultsFromHigh-PerformingCharters

CONFIDENTIAL

ResultsFromHigh-PerformingCharters

HarlemChildren’sZone

CONFIDENTIAL

CharterResults

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Math

Reading

A.BroadSurveys B.HighPerformers

CONFIDENTIAL

FindingtheVaccine

-0.41

0.01

-0.40 -0.45

-0.31

0.79 0.75

0.930.80

0.700.59

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

Mon

thso

fSchoo

ling

Traditionalvs.Non-TraditionalSchoolInputsandSchoolEffectiveness

AverageCorrelationwithReadingandMathEffectiveness(inmonthsofschooling)

vs.

CONFIDENTIAL

Meta-Analysis:MethodforFindingFieldExperiments

• WhatWorksClearinghouse- singlestudyandquickreviewsthatmetstandardswithoutreservations

• EducationLiteratureReviews(Almond&Curie;Fryer;Heckman&Kautz;Nye,Turner,&Schwartz;Yeager&Walton)

• Searchingknowndatabases(e.g.ERIC,JSTOR,EconLit)• Narrowedourfocustostudiesthatsatisfiedthefollowing

criteria:1. RandomizedControlledTrials2. Treatmentsaffectstudentsbetweenages0- 18(i.e.

excludingstudentsincolleges)3. Studentachievementinmathand/orreadingtestsas

outcomevariables4. Statetestsornormreferencedtests5. HighlyDevelopedCountries(topquartileoftheHDI)

CONFIDENTIAL

Meta-Analysis:PapersFound

Paper AccountingNumber of Papers

Hits From Broad Search ⇡ 8,000

Selected for Further Review 838

College Sample/Outcomes -42Design Issues -87Countries w/o Very High HDI -57Insufficient Info -22Paper Not Located -10No Standardized Reading or Math -337Repeat Paper -71Sample Issues -18

Total Included 194

CONFIDENTIAL

Meta-AnalysisResults

CONFIDENTIAL

Thekeygoal istotranslate charterschools’ successful policies intocommonprinciples andthentransplant themintotraditional public schools. Tothisend, EdLabs initiated amulti-year study ofNYCchartersthatdetermined thatthefollowing fivepolicies andpractices have thegreatestcorrelation withstudentachievement:

More Time in School• Extended day, week, and school years are all integral components of successful school

models. In the case of Harlem Children’s Zone’s Promise Academy, students have nearly doubled the amount of time on task compared to students in NYC public schools.

Small Group Tutoring• In top performing schools, classroom instruction is supplemented by individualized

tutoring, both after school and during the regular school day.

Human Capital Management • Successful charters reward teachers for performance and hold them accountable if they

are not adding value.

Data Driven Instruction and Student Performance Management• In the top charter schools, students are assessed frequently, and then, in small groups,

re-taught the skills they have not yet mastered.

Culture and Expectations• In successful schools, students buy into the school’s mission and into the importance of

their education in improving their lives.

Edlabs’ResearchFindings:FindingtheVaccine

CONFIDENTIAL

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

AverageCharterNational

AverageNYCCharter

AUSLTurnaround

HarlemChildren'sZone(MS)

AverageKIPP(MS)

ApolloMS/HS ApolloES DenverSummitSchools

TreatmentEffectsinContext

Math Reading

TurnaroundsInContext

CONFIDENTIAL

Long-TermHCZEffects

0

5

10

15

20

25

EnrolledinCollege Enrolledin4-yearCollege

College-Going

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Math Reading

Woodcock Johnson

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

MentalHealth PhysicalHealthIndex NutritionIndex

HealthOutcomes

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Pregnancy(Girls) Incarceration(Boys)

SocialOutcomes(OddsRatios)