brooks severe weather climate change
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Harold E. BrooksHazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings
Severe Weather and Climate Change
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2Currently, ~$10B damage in US annually
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Can’t say anything about observed changes
Can’t say much about future changes
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Non-tornadic Severe Storm Reports
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Act
ivity
Reports
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Why NSSL?
• Expertise developing…– report-based climatologies– ingredients-based approaches to forecasting
• Honest broker
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Apply Forecasting Approach
• Look for ingredients in environments• Difficult to observe all ingredients
Low-levelflow
Mid-to-high level flow
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Ingredients Severe Storms Estimate
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Observed Severe Storms Locations
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Ingredients Severe Storms Estimate
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Act
ivity
Ingredients Estimate of Severe Storm Reports
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Non-tornadic Severe Storm Reports
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Act
ivity
Ingredients Estimate of Severe Storm Reports
Reports
Ingredients
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1980-1999
2080-2099
Severe Storms from Climate Model
What about initiation?