climate change connection: severe weather in mb...
TRANSCRIPT
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@synoptictyper
Professor of Geography Associate Dean of Science, University of Winnipeg
Danny Blair
Co-Chair, MB’s Climate Change Connection
Manitoba’s Future Climate
dannyblair.uwinnipeg.ca
Climate Change Connection: Severe Weather in MB Workshop, 2 April 2013
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Many people
around the world
now realize that
their climates
are no longer
normal.
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2000 England and Wales Wettest autumn on record since 1766
2002 Germany Highest daily rain since at least 1901
2003 Europe Hottest summer in at least 500 years
2007 Greece Hottest summer on record since 1891
2009 Australia Heatwave breaks many long records
2010 Russia Hottest summer since 1500
2010 Pakistan Worst flooding in history
2010 E. Australia Highest December rainfall since 1900
2011 France Record hot/dry spring since 1880
2011 N.E. USA Wettest Jan-Oct on record since 1880
2011 S. USA Most extreme Jul. heat/dry since 1880
2011 W. Europe Wettest summer on record since 1901
2011 Japan 72-hour rainfall record
2011 Rep. of Korea Wettest summer on record since 1908
2011 Canada Souris-Assiniboine River Floods
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2012 Arctic Lowest sea ice cover on record
2012 Antarctic Highest sea ice cover on record
2012 Canada Record high temps in March
2012 Canada/U.S. Record winter drought in many areas
2012 United States Hottest year on record in lower 48
2012 United States Hottest summer on record in lower 48
2012 Canada Hottest summer on record
2012 Europe Many areas record hottest summer
2012 United States Drought breaks many long records
2012 Russia, Ukraine + Drought raises food prices 10%
2012 United States Hurricane Sandy kills ~200; ~$70B
2012 Greenland 97% of surface was melting in July
2012 Eurasia Extreme cold spell in Jan/Feb
2012 S. Philippines Rare Super Typhoon kills 100s in Dec
2012 NE Brazil Extreme drought worst in 5 decades
2012 Africa Floods in Jul-Oct affects >3 million
2013 Australia Record heat wave in January
2013 Australia Hottest summer on record (Dec-Feb)
2013 Canada Record highs in Yukon, Edm. in Jan.
2012-2013 Extremes
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2011/12: 3rd Warmest Winter (1948-2012)
https://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=4A21B114-1
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https://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=4A21B114-1
2012: Warmest Summer (1948-2012)
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2012: Warmest Year on Record for U.S.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/13
Canada:
3rd Warmest
(1948-2012)?
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/nadm/nadm-maps.php?lang=en&year=2012&month=8
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March 2012 Difference
from Normal
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Winnipeg March Mean Temperatures
2013
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Anomalies relative to 1951-80
Global Climate is Warming
NASA: 2010 was tied for warmest year on record
2011 was 9th warmest
2012 was ~tied for 9th
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Yes, there is much variation
within the global
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http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/
Major volcanic
eruptions cool
the planet for a
few years
El Niño warms
the planet for
~2 yrs; La Niña
cools for ~2 yrs
Through Jan. 2013
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Record Warmth In Recent Years
Even though solar irradiance was very low
Carbon dioxide forcing is
about 1.5 W/m2 and growing
(~0.3 W/m2 per decade)
Data through Jan. 2013
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Solar/
~11-year (132-month) sunspot cycle
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Why is the global
temperature rising?
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The “Keeling Curve”
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/
393.8 ppm
Data through Dec 2012 http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/scripps-co2-data-mauna-loa-observatory.html
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Glacial-Interglacial Ice Core Data
We have excellent estimates of ancient carbon dioxide
concentrations from bubbles extracted from ice cores.
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Conclusion from our
understanding of how climates
changed in the past and current
changes:
• Humans now control the
global climate.
James Hansen: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
James Hansen and grandchildren
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IPCC CO2 CONCENTRATION
SCENARIOS
Socio-economic and geophysical models
are used to make projections about future
carbon dioxide (and GHG) concentrations.
Currently
~394 ppm
A2
A1B
B1
A1F1
540
850
720
970
B2 620
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Alas:
•There are few signs that
we are going to
substantially slow down
our carbon emissions any
time soon.
None?
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Alas:
• There is no quick fix.
• It is very unlikely that we
will be able to prevent
substantial warming.
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33% of CO2
remains in air
after 100 years
19% remains in air
after 1000 years
Decay of Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission
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Conclusion:
•The entire climate system
changes as well, not just
the temperature.
•There are many signs that
the system is changing.
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http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
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What changes in
temperature and
precipitation are
projected for our region?
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http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php
Canada’s most
recent assessment
of climate change
impacts and
adaptation, region
by region.
Update coming soon
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Prairie Grassland Region: 2050s Spring
Wetter &
Warmer
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Climate Trend Mapper
Free! at climate.uwinnipeg.ca
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Spring Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011
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Prairie Grassland Region: 2050s Summer
Drier? &
Warmer
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Summer Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011
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Prairie Grassland Region: 2050s Fall
Wetter? &
Warmer
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Fall Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011
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Prairie Grassland Region: 2050s Winter
Wetter &
Warmer
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Winter Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011
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Annual Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011
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http://warmingworld.newscientistapps.com/
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RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway
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Use average of 16 of the latest climate models to
estimate changes in PRECIPITATION and changes in
the DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.
Comparing 1950-2000 to 2021-2040.
Uses RCP8.5.
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Change in PRECIPITATION: Fall Months
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Change in PRECIPITATION: Winter Months
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Change in PRECIPITATION: Spring Months
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Change in PRECIPITATION: Summer Months
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Change in PRECIP-ET: Fall Months
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Change in PRECIP-ET: Winter Months
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Change in PRECIP-ET: Spring Months
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Change in PRECIP-ET: Summer Months
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Climate normals are dead:
•The averages are changing
rapidly
•The climate is becoming more
variable
•The past is no longer a good
surrogate for the future
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Science: 1 Feb 2008
Stationarity—the idea that natural systems
fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of
variability—is a foundational concept that
permeates training and practice in water-resource
engineering. It implies that any variable (e.g.,
annual streamflow or annual flood peak) has a time-
invariant (or 1-year–periodic) probability density
function (pdf), whose properties can be estimated
from the instrument record.
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Of Concern:
•The amount of non-
stationarity that will be
present in the future is
unknown
•Also unknown: what we
do not know
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Donald Rumsfeld:
• "We know there are known
knowns: there are things we know
we know. We also know there are
known unknowns: that is to say we
know there are things we know we
don't know. But there are also
unknown unknowns — the
ones we don't know we don't
know." 12 February 2002
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Planning and preparing is
important:
•Forecasting extreme
events is especially
important and difficult
•The most important
events are the extremes
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http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
Released March
2012
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IPCC 2001
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Number of Days with Temperature
Exceeding 30°C
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• Warming leads to more evaporation
• More evaporation increase intensity
and duration of drought
• Warmer air also holds more water
vapour (7% more per +1°C)
• More water vapour will create more
precipitation (with favourable
weather patterns)
• More atmospheric moisture provides
more latent heat for storms
Clausius–Clapeyron equation
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Overall, the evidence indicates a likely increase
in observed heavy precipitation in many
regions in North America, despite statistically
non-significant trends and some decreases in
some sub-regions. This general increase in heavy
precipitation accompanies a general increase in
total precipitation in most areas of the [country].
The largest trends toward
increased annual total
precipitation, number of rainy days,
and intense precipitation….were
focused on the Great
Plains/northwestern Midwest. Chapter 3
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There will be benefits:
• Longer growing season
• More heat for growing
• More crop/garden choices
• Improved yields
• Longer warm-fun season
• Warmer winters
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There will be many risks:
• More extreme heat events
• More cooling requirements
• More severe storms
• More winter rain hazards
• More weeds and pests
• More social stress
• Shorter cold-fun season
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There will be many risks:
• More frequent droughts
• More intense droughts
• Longer droughts
• More extreme rain events
• Continued spring floods
• A more variable climate
• More climate surprises
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You should:
•Anticipate impacts on
your activities & services
•Anticipate demand for
your activities & services
•Make the case for change
•Develop and implement a
plan that has resilience
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@synoptictyper
Professor of Geography Associate Dean of Science, University of Winnipeg
Danny Blair
Co-Chair, MB’s Climate Change Connection
Manitoba’s Future Climate
dannyblair.uwinnipeg.ca
Climate Change Connection: Severe Weather in MB Workshop, 2 April 2013
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Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary
Variable Projected Change Confidence
Annual Mean Temperature
+1 to +3°C by 2050 Very High
Winter Mean Temperature
+3 to +5°C by 2050 Very High
Spring Mean Temperature
+1 to +2°C by 2050 Very High
Summer Mean Temperature
+1 to +2°C by 2050 Very High
Fall Mean Temperature
+1 to +2°C by 2050 Very High
Maximum Temperatures Warming slower than means Very High
Minimum Temperatures Warming faster than means Very High
These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The
Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.
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Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary
Variable Projected Change Confidence
Warm-season heat waves Warmer and more frequent Very High
Heat extremes Warmer and more frequent Very High
Cooling-degree days Much higher Very High
Heating-degree days Much lower Very High
Growing-degree days Much higher Very High
Frost-free season Much longer Very High
Mid-winter thaws Warmer and more frequent Very High
Winter-cold snaps Shorter and less frequent Very high
Snow cover season Much shorter Very high
Length of winter season Much shorter Very high
Winter freeze-thaw cycles More frequent Low
Cold nights Warmer and fewer Very high
These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The
Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.
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Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary
Variable Projected Change Confidence
Annual precipitation Modest increase Medium
Winter precipitation Substantial increase Very High
Spring precipitation Increase Medium
Summer precipitation Lower Low
Fall precipitation Increase Low
Winter rain events Many more Very high
Snow storms Fewer Medium
Droughts More and longer High
Intense rain events More and more intense High
Days with rain/snow ? Low
Days without rain/snow ? Low
Surface water amount Less Medium
These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The
Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.
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Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary
Variable Projected Change Confidence
Wind speed ? Low
Wind extremes Higher Medium
Wind erosion Higher Low
Cloud cover ? Low
Sunshine ? Low
Relative humidity ? Low
Summer severe weather More Medium
Lightning More Medium
Tornadoes More Medium
Surface water temperature Higher Very high
Carbon dioxide Higher Very high
These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The
Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.
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Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary
Variable Projected Change Confidence
Year to year variability Higher High
Climate extremes Higher High
Spring flooding More frequent Low
Local summer flooding More frequent High
Very wet summers More frequent Low
Very dry summers More frequent Medium
Very hot summers More frequent High
Very wet winters More frequent High
Very cold winters Much less frequent Very high
Positive impacts Some, decreasing with time Very high
Negative impacts Many, increasing with time Very high
These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The
Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.