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SINTEF Energy Research 1

Broaching CCS into Society. Timeline Considerations for Capture Technologies and the Challenge of Capacity Building

Jens Hetland, Ph.D.Senior Research ScientistSINTEF Energy Research, Trondheim, NorwayDept. of Gas Technology

TCCS-6 Trondheim, 14-16 June, 2011


Closing financial gaps (III) via incentives or strategic pricing in order to increase volume and prove viability (IIIII). Gradually developing and refining CCS for the commercial market (IIIIV).

Broaching new energy technologies into society: Notion of cost, time and volume

Without funding support status quo will be maintained (IV)


Enabling new energy technologies: Notion of timeline

Time

Pene

trat

ion

rate

Pre-commercialphase

Take-off phase

Acceleration phase

Stabilisationphase

Equilibrium stage

A B

The technology: 1. needs to go through a pre-commercial phase

to become available. 2. may proceed through a take-off phase to

become commercial. 3. if successful, will go through an acceleration

phase to become material. 4. Eventually, growth will stabilise as the

technology settles at a market share (equilibrium).


Deployment of energy technologies: Notion of growth rate

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Ener

gy (T

J pe

r yea

r)

Total energy

Oil

Nuclear

LNG

Biofuels (1st generation)

Wind

Solar PV

CCS

Biofuels (2nd generation)

Scenario-based growth projections

Past experience:

At least 30 years are required for a successful energy technology to proceed from the stage of being available to becoming material.

The reason is that the energy system itself is so huge that it takes time to build the required human and industrial capacity.

Trajectories according to: Kramer, G.J.; Haigh, M.: ”No quick switch to low-carbon energy”. Nature, Vol 462, 3 December 2009


Outlook for CCS: Notion of capacity expansion with coal

-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000

Mtoe

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

OECDNon-OECD

Efficiency (%) Electric power (GW) Comment33 765 This efficiency is slightly above the current world average35 803 Obtainable with CCS using existing power cycles40 918 Obtainable with CCS using new advanced materials and steam cycles45 1033 Advanced coal-based power cycle with air tower (no capture)50 1148 Possible coal power plants using new advanced materials and steam cycles (no capture)

By 2030 the annual demand for coal will increase by almost 55% from that of 2007 growing from around 3.1 to around 4.8 Gtoe, or net 1.7 Gtoe.

This corresponds to a generating capacity in the range of 800-1200 GWe – provided additional coal is used for power generation. If half of this quantity were to include CCS, one would by 2030 expect some 400-500 GW electricity. This represents an unprecedented challenge.


The 450-ppm Scenario by 2030

2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030

Year

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

Glo

bal G

HG

em

issi

ons

(Gtp

a)

13.8 Gtpa

Reference scenario

450 ppm scenario

3.8 Gtpa

• The global greenhouse gas emissions falling 13.8 Gtpa below that of the reference trajectory.

• Around 10% of this emission reduction is obtainable with CCS. • Challenge is to provide the required capacity to trap and store 1.38 Gtpa of CO2.

SINTEF Energy Research

Corresponds to 1030 coalpower plants (7000 hours per year, 400 MWe, 1000 g CO2 per kWh)

Corresponds to occupatedland comparable with India.

Corresponds to 3240 coalpower plants (7000 hours per year, 400 MWe, and reductionfrom 1000 g CO2 per kWh to 100)

The 450-ppm Scenario by 2050: BLUE MAP (IEA)

WEO: World Energy OutlookETP: Energy Technology Perspective


20 30 40 50 60Efficiency [%]

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Emis

sion

inde

x [g

CO

2/kW

h]

No capture (CR=0)

CR=25%

CR=50%

CR=75%

CR=90%

World averagecoal power

Natural gas (no capture)

Bituminous coal(H/C, O/C, S/C, N/C) = (0.898, 0.122, 0.0026, 0.0058)

State of the art NGCC

2% water, 6% ash

State of the art

conventional coal

power generation

Proposed clean energy level

A

B

C

D

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

O/C

H/C

Emission index vs. net plant electric efficiency Bituminous coal characterised by: [H/C,O/C,S/C,N/C] = [0.898,0.122,0.0026, 0.0058] with 2% water content and 6% ash.

Emission level with coal (capture rates, CR, in %). Natural gas power generation trajectory is without CCS.


1. A new (successful) energy technology tends to go through an exponential growth until it settles at a market share.

2. After the technology has become material the growth is prone to shift from exponential to linear.

Deployment of new energy technologies: Two empirical “laws”

Throughout the last century, the scale-up rate of many successful technologies has typically been one order of magnitude per decade. The exponential growth seems to continue until the technology becomes material – typically at around 1% of the total global energy.

* Reference: Kramer, G.J.; Haigh, M.: ”No quick switch to low-carbon energy”. Nature, Vol 462, 3 December 2009

Kramer & Haigh’s model*:


Emission indices and available power (with coal)

Base plantefficiency [%]

Capture rate [%] η [%] ICO2 [t/GWh] P [GWe]

50 0 50 66750 44.4 334 47375 41.7 167 31590 40 67 263

45 0 45 74150 39.4 371 53275 36.7 181 32490 35 74 266

• Impacts of capture rate and base-plant efficiency on net efficiency (η), emission index (ICO2) and aggregated generating capacity (P) with the required capture rate necessary to remove 10% of the gap between the reference scenario and the 450 ppm Scenario by 2030.

• Estimates based on bituminous coal and 10% efficiency penalty at 90% capture rate. • Two base power cycle versions assumed, one using new advanced materials that offer 50% net

efficiency and the other having a net efficiency of 45% (at capture rate 0).


Summarising current capture capacity and impact of the level at which CCS will become available and materialThe implication of the G8 target and the IEA 450 ppm Scenario put into perspective

Year Aggregated generating

capacityGWe

CO2 to store from plants employing integrated CCS

Gtpa

Comment

Current 2008 0 ~0.005 Sources not related to power plants.Sleipner: 1.0 Mtpa CO2 (natural gas processing)Snohvit: 0.7 Mtpa CO2 (natural gas processing)In Salah: 1.0 Mtpa CO2 (natural gas processing)Weyburn: 2.8 Mtpa CO2 (syn-fuel processing)Note: These technologies are not quite similar

G8 2020 Gross ~10Net ~8.2

0.045 20 large CCS plants world-wide. Assuming 500 MWe as an average capacitygenerated from bituminous coal. This means that CCS as a technology may beavailable, but the inventory of CCS-based plants must still increase almost 30times until CCS is deemed material.

Note: These concepts will be using different techniques. As this may disperse theattention on technology development and refinement, the stage of materialisingthese routes may be somewhat delayed.

IEA 450 Scenario

20302050

1.383.45

Corresponding to 10% of the gap by 2030 between the reference trajectory andthe Blue Map scenario of the IEA.Corresponding to 25% of the required emissions reduction between the referencetrajectory and the Blue Map scenario by 2050

CCS termed available*

x Gross 0.037Net 0.032

0.000165 1000 TJpa will be reached within 2020 according to existing target – however,most likely as demonstration units.

CCS to materialise**

y Gross 275Net 225

1.25 1% of world energy mix: 7 EJ by 2030. Depending on development andinvestment strategies, it may take some 6 to 14 years to reach this level, using2020 as a baseline.


World energy mix, history and prognosis

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Year

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Wor

ld e

nerg

y m

ix (E

J)

Data source: International Energy Outlook 2009. Report #:DOE/EIA-0484(2009), release Date: May 2009. Available on: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html (last visited April 2010)

The world energy mix expressed as follows:

Log e = a(y-2020) + b [TJpa]

Exponential growth from year 1 up to year n:

Pn = P1(1+k)n

k is the growth rate (typical 0.26 for a tenfold increase per decade)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html�


1 order

A: 8.2 GW in 2020. Growing tentimes per decade until material. Linear1%. Time to material: 14.7 year(2034)

Exponent0.26

Year GWeCO2 to

store Gtpa2020 82025 262030 83 0.442035 2432040 2552045 2682050 282 1.48

Provided an initial generating capacity of 8.2 GW by 2020, fully equipped and operated with CCS, one may expect, with a traditional growth of one order of magnitude per decade (k=0.26), the technology to materialise after about 14 years (in 2034).

Prerequisites to a swift and successful deployment - according to these models – are: (1) the initial inventory of the technology at datum year (in GW), and (2) the exponential growth rate.

With a ten-fold increase per decade the capacity will not reach the level of the IEA Blue Map trajectory – neither by 2030 nor by 2050. The gap is caused mainly by a combined effect of late start (2020) and the lack of a technology push or market pull.A linear growth of 1% after being material will be significantly lower than the increasing demand for primary energy. Hence, CCS would immediately loose market position once the technology be deemed material.

Traditional growthTypically one order of magnitude per decade


1 orderB: 8.2 GW in 2020. Growing tentimes per decade until material.Linear 5%. Time to material:14.7 year (2034)

Exponent0.26

Year GWeCO2 to store

Gtpa2020 82025 262030 83 0.442035 2432040 3102045 3962050 505 2.66

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Cap

acity

with

CC

S (T

Jpa)

World energy mix

1% of World energy mix

CCS deployment Blue Map

1 orderC: 15 GW in 2020. Growing tentimes per decade until material.Linear 5%. Time to material: 11.8year (2031)

Exponent0.26

Year GWeCO2 to store

Gtpa2020 152025 482030 151 0.792035 2682040 3422045 4362050 557 2.93

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Cap

acity

with

CC

S (T

Jpa)

World energy mix



Impact of capacity build-up by increasing the linear growth from 1% to 5% . Almost negligible (but

capacity is doubled by 2050). A large gap prevails between

the two trajectories. The 5% linear growth

corresponds roughly to the increasing global energy mix.

The initial capacity (2020) is increased from 8.2 to 15GW. Time to reach material could

be cut by about 3 years – from 14.7 to 11.8 years.

Impacts of improving linear growth:

Impacts of increased initial capacity:


D: 8.2 GW in 2020. Growing20 times per decade untilmaterial. Linear 5%. Time tomaterial: 11.1 year (2031)

Exponent0.35

Year GWe

CO2 to store Gtpa

2020 8

2025 37

2030 165 0.872035 278

2040 354

2045 452

2050 577 3.03

E: 8.2 GW in 2020. Growing40 times per decade untilmaterial. Linear 5%. Time tomaterial: 8.9 year (2028)

Exponent0.44615

Year GWe

CO2 to store Gtpa

2020 8

2025 52

2030 231 1.212035 295

2040 376

2045 480

2050 613 3.22

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Cap

acity

with

CC

S (T

Jpa)

World energy mix



2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Cap

acity

with

CC

S (T

Jpa)

World energy mix



The initial capacity is kept unchanged, whereas the exponential growth has been increased from ten-fold to 20-fold per decade. Time to becoming material is

shortened, although marginally.

The exponential growth rate is increased to 40 times per decade. A significant gap still remains.

Enhanced growth strategies


F: 8.2 GW in 2020.Growing 80 times perdecade until material.Linear 5%. Time tomaterial: 7.4 year (2027)

Exponent0.55

Year GWeCO2 to

store Gtpa2020 82025 732030 248 1.302035 3172040 4042045 5162050 659 3.47

G: 8.2 GW in 2020.Growing 100 times perdecade until material.Linear 5%. Time tomaterial: 7.1 year (2027)

Exponent0.5849

Year GWeCO2 to

store Gtpa2020 82025 822030 247 1.302035 3152040 4022045 5132050 654 3.44

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Cap

acity

with

CC

S (T

Jpa)

World energy mix



The exponential growth rate is increased to 100 times per decade. Also here a significant gap still

remains.

The exponential growth rate is increased to 80 times per decade. A significant gap still remains.

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Cap

acity

with

CC

S (T

Jpa)

World energy mix




Growing three-orders of magnitude per decade

2010 2020 2030 2040

Year

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

Cap

acity

with

CC

S (T

Jpa)

World energy mix



G8 suggests 20 large CCS plants to operate by 2020, which may provide some 8 GWe with CCS. Even with a growth rate of three orders of magnitude per

decade the initial capacity would not suffice. By doubling the initial capacity, it might be theoretically

possible for the technology to grow from 16 GWe to 200 GWe in less than four years, and then shift from exponential to linear (growing 10.7% per year).

This tremendous capacity building is beyond realism the Blue Map trajectory represents a vision – probably without any practical impact. It can only compare with a war-like mobilisation.


Summary and Conclusion (1)

• Initiating generating capacity is of utmost importance in order to fast-track the development and deployment of CCS technology.

• It may take at least 30 years for a successful energy technology to proceed from the stage of being termed available until it is deemed material.

• Neither carbon pricing nor fuel subsidies seem to suffice in compensating for the additional cost. Hence, CCS is and remains a policy issue that will strongly rely on a legal & regulatory framework.



• In order to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions under the 450 ppm scenario, the timeline of the required CCS deployment process must be less than one decade.

• Realistic approaches suggest that the deployment process will be too slow, and its starting point seems to be too late.

• In order to respond to the 450 ppm scenario (Blue Map of the IEA), the growth rate must be as high as three orders of magnitude per decade until CCS becomes material.

• One may expect an aggregated global generating capacity with CCS of roughly 8 GWe by 2020. However, even with an exceedingly high growth rate the initial capacity appears to be insufficient.

• By doubling the initial capacity, it might be theoretically possible for the capacity to grow from 16 GWe to 200 GWe in less than four years. At this stage the growth will shift from exponential to linear (10.7% per year) until 2050.



• The required capacity building can only be comparable with a war-like mobilisation with dedicated attention from authorities and regulators, involvement of funders, industrial players and operators (plants, pipelines and storage sites).

• Eventually, this may also affect the industrial sector world-wide, bringing shortages of materials, human resources and other factors to industries operating in non-related fields and markets.

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