briggs s 20150707_1630_unesco_fontenoy_-_room_xi
TRANSCRIPT
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The Importance of Climate
Observations from Space
Prof. Stephen Briggs
European Space Agency
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Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature Climate Change, 2014.
The importance of observations………
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Global Climate Observations – history
• Flamsteed, Cassini (c.1650-1700)• Humboldt (1769-1859)• Maury and the Brussels Conference (1853)• International Meteorological Org. (1873)• International Polar Years and IGY (1957)• World Weather Watch and GARP (1967)• World Climate Conference (1979) and the World Climate Programme• Villach (1985), Brundtland (1987) and the
IPCC (1988)• World Climate Conference-2 (1990)
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Second World Climate Conference
(WCC-2) Ministerial Session
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UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) (May 1992)
Article 4 Commitments
Article 5 Research and Systematic Observation
All Parties shall:
1(g) Promote and cooperate in scientific, technological, technical, socio-
economic and other research, systematic observation and development
of data archives related to the climate system……….
In carrying out their commitments under Article 4, paragraph 1(g), the Parties shall:
(a) Support and further develop…programs and networks or organizations aimed
at defining, conducting, assessing and financing research, data collection and
systematic observation, taking into account the need to minimize duplication
of effort;
(b) Support international and intergovernmental efforts to strengthen systematic
observation….particularly in developing countries, and to promote access to,
and the exchange of, data and analyses thereof……
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GCOS Essential Climate Variables
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GCOS Essential Climate Variables
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Road Map for 2014 to 2016
WCRP Conference 2011
Status report
2014 2015 2016COP21 COP22COP20
New Plan
August
October
For Public ReviewDraft of
Finalisation
Summer
Finalisation
SPARC Data Workshop 2013
IPCC AR5 2013/2014
UNFCCC National Reports
GCOS AOPC TOPC OOPC
GEO Work Plan Symposium (April 2014)
WIGOS Planning IOC GOOS Planning
Space Architecture–ECV Inv.
ESA CCI QA4ECVCORE-CLIMAX
GCOS Adaptation Workshop 2013
GCOS GOFC-GOLD Mitigation Workshop (5-7 May 2014)
WCRP-IPCC WG I Workshop (Sep 2014)
GCOS-IPCC WG II and DRR Workshop (Nov 2014)
WCRP WDAC (May 2014)
CEOS-CGMS Response
Report to SBSTA41on status
Report to SBSTA43
Report to SBSTA45Submission of new Plan
EUMETSAT-WCRP Climate Symposium (Oct 2014)
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GCOS Planning and documents
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First image of the Earth from space
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11
ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use
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ESA Climate Change Initiative
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System Context
FCDR
FCDR
FCDR
Satellites Ground
Segments
CCIClimate
DataUsers
Level 1b
Level 1b
Level 1b
Level 1b
Level 1b
Level 1b
Level 1b
Climate Reanalysis
Climate Modellers
ECV DP
ECV DP
ECV DP
ESA
NASA
Eumetsat
NOAA
Jaxa
…
Others Climate Services
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Scope of extended CCI
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CCI Products Time Coverage (Current)
Cloud
Ozone
Aerosol
GHG
Sea Ice
Sea Level
SST
Ocean Colour
Glaciers
Ice Sheet
Land Cover
Fire
Soil Moisture
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
2
1
8
3
3
2
2
2
1
2
2-3 measurements per glacier over the period
4
1
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The Climate Change Initiative in IPCC AR5 WGI
Results from the CCI are cited in AR5, notably:
• CCI Glaciers played a leading role in creating the first globally-complete glacier inventory, the Randolph Glacier Inventory.
• CCI Sea Level produced improved Global Mean Sea Level estimates using Envisat data.
• The Ice sheets Mass Balance Intercomparison Exercise, involving CCI Ice Sheets, has led to improved confidence in the measurement of ice sheet mass balance and the associated global sea level contribution.
Further CCI projects are also citedin the report:
Glaciers_cci• Observations: Cryosphere• Sea Level Change
Greenhouse_Gases_cci• Carbon and Other Biogeochemical
Cycles
Ice_Sheets_cci• Observations: Cryosphere• Sea Level Change
Sea_Level_cci• Observations: Cryosphere • Sea Level Change
Ozone_cci• Evaluation of Climate Models
Sea_Surface_Temperature_cci• Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
Soil_Moisture_cci• Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
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1990 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
Ice
mas
s lo
ss (
Gt/
yr)
-400
Previous surveys: Antarctica
imbie
Gravimetry
Radar Altimetry
Interferometry
Laser altimetry
1mm
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50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
1990 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Ice
mas
s lo
ss (
Gt/
yr)
-400
Previous surveys: Greenland
imbie
Gravimetry
Radar Altimetry
Interferometry
Laser altimetry
1mm
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1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
0
Combined
Greenland
Antarctica
Increased ice sheet mass losses
10
8
6
4
2
12
0.27 mm per yr
0.95 mm per year
imbie
Sea
leve
l co
ntr
ibu
tio
n (
mm
)
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CryoSat: Yearly Ice Loss in Greenland
Courtesy: Helm et al. (2014)
Digital Elevation Model
2003-2008 2011-2012
IMBIE CryoSat
-189±20 km3/yr -352±29 km3/yr
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• Unique (first ever) combination of S1A stripmap and TerraSAR-X SAR data
provides first map of Austfonna ice speed in 2014
• Data show that glacier at Cap Mohn has experienced a rapid acceleration
Ice Speed (kilometres per year)
0 4
1995 (ERS) 2008 (ALOS) 2014 (TSX-S1)
Credit: N. Gourmelen, University of Edinburgh
Sentinel-1A: Svalbard Ice Cap
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Glacierarea
Inventory
Elevation change
dh/dttrendsfrom
altimetry
mean changes fromDEM differencing
Velocity
DisplacementVectors
Glacier products
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7/10/201523
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Climate Impact on Marine Ecosystem StateImpact of El Niño variability on ocean primary producers
Impact on Phytoplankton Indicators:• Chlorophyll• Primary Production• Phenology (bloom timing, growth duration)
Change in forcing:• Climate Index• El Niño variability
Primary Production
0
+10
-10
% change
Growth duration
0
+50
-50
% change
Racault et al., In prep. ESA Living Planet Fellowship 2015-2017 Capotondi et al., JAS 2014
Eastern Pacific El Niño
Central Pacific El Niño
The impact on ocean primary producers is different in different regions for the two types of El Niño
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Relation between EL Nino/La Nina and CO2 anomalies (trend removed)
Harrison et al. 2014, TPOS 2020 Report.
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Atmospheric Methane (CH4) is Increasing
• Third most abundant greenhouse gas after H2O and CO2
• Grown by 150% since pre-industrial era (in 1750 it was 700 ppb*)
• Less abundant than CO2 but more efficient as a greenhouse gas
• Relative to CO2 it contributes about 60% in terms of radiative forcing
*ppb = parts per billion
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OCO-2 CO2 concentrations (NASA-JPL)
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Surface albedo from geostationary satellites
MODIS
Lattanzio A.; et al., 2013:
Land Surface Albedo from Geostationary
Satellites: a multi-agency collaboration
within SCOPE-CM, 2013.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society.
GeosatsSum
Geostationary satellites have
better temporal sampling, hence a
higher probability to obtain a clear
sky view
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GSMaP: Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation
•Rapidly changing precipitation phenomena need frequentobservations.
•Global rainfall map merging TRMM, polar orbiting microwaveradiometer/sounders, and geostationary infrared radiometers.
http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP/
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met.no
Map of Arctic sea ice cover at record low minimum mid-September 2012 (white-blue shades). The minimum cover 32 years earlier (September 1980) is contoured in orange.
More information and graphs are available from http://osisaf.met.no
Arctic Sea Ice Extent
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Exte
nt
(Mil
lio
ns o
f sq
ua
re k
ilo
mete
rs)
Arctic Sea Ice Extent(Area of Ocean with at least 15% sea ice)
1981-2010 Average
±2 Standard Deviations
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Show all Hide all
1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May
BETA - National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO
1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug
1 Sep 1 Oct
1 Nov 1 Dec 31 Dec0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
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Polar shipping summer 2014
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28th Plenary session
Tromsø, Norway
28-30 October 2014
33
Global Forest Observation Initiative (GFOI)
Co-leads:
• Australia (DOTE)
• Norway (NSC)
• USA (USGS)
• FAO
• CEOS (ESA)
GFOI Objectives:
• to foster sustained availability of
satellite and ground observation
in support of national forest
information systems
• to support countries in the use
of observations for their national
forest information systems GFOI Country Coverage In 2013 AND 2014
2008 Establishment of GEO FCT task
2009+ FCT demonstration based on NDs
2010 GFOI Concept plan
2011 GFOI Implementation plan
2012 GFOI Start-Up Phase
2013-15 Incrementing coverage
2016+ Operations Phase www.gfoi.org
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Red dots indicate new logging locations in Amazon rainforest
Identification of new logging locations every 5 days
140 illegal loggings among 1007 new logging locations in 2010
On-site survey and revelations by Federal Police
Brazil
Monitoring of Illegal Logging with Brazilian environmental agency (IBAMA)
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History: Zeeland, 31 Jan 1953
ENVISAT for monitoring dykes in the Netherlands
On the potential of PS-InSAR for monitoring dikes in the Netherlands
Courtesy of Ramon Hansen Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems
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Overflowing
Overtopping
Piping
Sliding inner slope
Plastic horizontal sliding
Nipping ice
BLUE Below Sea level
17000 km of water barriers:
– 3565 km primary water barriers (big rivers, sea, IJsselmeer, Markermeer),
– >14000 km regional water barriers
On the potential of PS-InSAR for monitoring dikes in the Netherlands
Courtesy R. Hansen Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems
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Landsat background, with PSI-dike results of 9 frames superposed (1992-2005)
On the potential of PS-InSAR for monitoring dikes in the Netherlands
Courtesy of Ramon Hansen Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems
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Summary
1. Historical approach to climate observations formalised through
creation of the Global Climate Observing System, GCOS
2. Dialogue with CEOS established, with formal requirements
definition and coordinated response form all agencies,
research and operational meteorology.
3. Satellites support over 50% of GCOS ECVs directly, about
half remainder together with in situ data
4. Major initiatives in and among space agencies provides
comprehensive response
5. Satellites now a fundamental source of climate
observations for understanding climate, for adaptation and
mitigation.