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BriefingSeoul office sector Q3 2018

Savills World Research Korea

Despite buoyant export and consumption levels, the Bank of Korea has forecasted the country’s economic growth at 2.7%, citing sluggish employment and adjustments in construction and facilities investment.

Rental prices rose 2.6% in the CBD, 1.4% in the GBD, and 0.6% in the YBD from the previous year.

“Total investment volume up to Q3/2018 has eclipsed the all-time record for the same period last year by 130%.” Savills Research

Image : GBD, Seoul

Vigorous marketing and strong demand from co-working operators and call-centres absorbed long-term empty space in the CBD and the YBD. Despite the new supply of Gangnam N Tower (51,130 sq m) in the GBD, strong demand for the area caused the GBD vacancy rate to rise only 1 ppt from the previous quarter.

SUMMARYDemand for Seoul’s prime office space continued to grow from the previous quarter into Q3. Total absorption for the first nine months of 2018 reached 140% above the five-year average.


Briefing | Seoul office sector Q3 2018

SupplyIn Q3/2018, two major projects, Centropolis (CBD) and Gangnam N Tower (GBD), were completed. Located near Jongak Station, Centropolis held its ribbon-cutting ceremony in October only after completion of the Urban Environment Improvement Project and approval of its building use permit, that occurred in July. Given that tenants can only practically move in after Q4, Savills Korea Research’s analysis of Q3 rental and vacancy rates do not reflect this new supply.

SK Telecom and Kumho Asiana Group, which recently sold its Kumho Asiana Building, are expected to move into Centropolis end of this or early next year. Located on Teheran-ro, Gangnam N Tower was purchased by KB Real Estate Trust, which also signed a leasing agreement to take up offices covering approximately 15% of total office space. Cryptocurrency exchange Korbit also signed a leasing contract and is expected to move in during Q4. In addition, a co-working space (Workflex) managed by Lotte Asset Development recently signed an agreement to move in during Q1/2019.

Demand and Vacancy RateThe Bank of Korea lowered its economic outlook to 2.7% for both 2018 and 2019. Compared to July expectations, forecasts for this year were lowered by 0.2 of a percentage point (ppt) from 2.9% and by 0.1 of a ppt from 2.8% for next year. The Bank attributed the 2.7% growth to favourable movements in consumption and exports, although adjustments in facilities and construction investment will persist for the rest of this year. Employment conditions also remain sluggish with the number of employed rising only slightly. In light of expansionary fiscal policies for 2019, continued growth in exports and consumption is likely. The Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Board has held its base rate at 1.5% for 11 consecutive months. The Board will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance, forecasting

Table 1

Monthly rents, maintenance fees and vacancy rates by district, Q3/2018

Graph 1

Growth rate of real GDP and real exports, 2006 – 2019 (F)

Source: Bank of Korea

Graph 2

Number of employees in the finance and insurance sectors, Sep 2009 – Sep 2018

Source: Korean Statistical Information Service

District

Rent Maintenance feeNet absorption

area (sq m)Vacancy rate (%)

(Prev. Q)Average rent YoY increase (%)

Average maintenance

fee

YoY increase (%)

CBD 106,400 2.6% 42,400 2.4% 63,500 12.7% (14.9%)

GBD 94,100 1.4% 38,700 1.8% 17,100 8.0% (6.9%)

YBD 79,700 0.6% 37,700 1.5% 34,200 15.6% (18.2%)

Overall Seoul average 97,000 1.8% 40,200 2.0% 114,800 11.76% (13.03%)

Source: Savills Korea


Table 2

New supply, Q3/2018

(Unit : KRW/3.3sq m, GLA)

5.2% 5.5%

2.8%0.7%

6.5%

3.7%2.3% 2.9%

3.3%2.6% 2.8%

3.1% 2.7% 2.7%

13.4% 12.4%

6.0%

0.4%

13.5%

17.1%

4.4% 4.5%

2.3% 0.5% 2.2%

3.8% 3.5% 3.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

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18%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F

Economic growth (GDP, annual variance in %) Export growth (annual variance in %)

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18

Unit: thousandFinancial institutions & insurance employees (LHS)Total employment (RHS)

Building Name Gangnam N Tower

Address 648-9, Yeoksam-dong, Gangnam-gu

GFA(sq m) 51,130

Completion Year Aug 2018 Floor 25F / B6



that inflationary pressures on the demand side will not be high for the time being and that the domestic economy will sustain a rate of growth that does not diverge significantly from its potential level.

Demand for Seoul prime office space in the CBD, GBD, and YBD for Q3/2018 continued to rise compared to the previous quarter. The CBD experienced the most tenant activity, recording net absorption of 63,500 sq m. The GBD and YBD recorded net absorption of 17,100 sq m and 34,200 sq m respectively. The combined net absorption for the three business districts was 209,500 sq m for the period up to Q3/2018, a level that is 1.4 times greater than the five-year annual-average net absorption of 150,000 sq m.

For Q3/2018, the Seoul prime office vacancy rate was 11.8%, down 1.3 ppts from the previous quarter. The GBD’s vacancy rate rose to 8.0%, up 1.1 ppts from the previous quarter as a result of the completion of Luceen Tower in Q2 and Gangnam N Tower in Q3. But falling CBD and YBD vacancy rates contributed to an overall decline of the Seoul prime office vacancy rate, compared to the previous quarter. CBD buildings including Jongno Tower, Center Place and Booyoung Taepyeong Building experienced a sizeable drop, contributing to the lowest CBD vacancy rate in four years at 12.7%. The YBD’s vacancy rate fell to 15.6%, down 2.6 ppts from the previous quarter, with new tenants moving into FKI Tower, IFC 3 and Yeouido Finance Tower, which had been experiencing significant vacancies.

The CBD’s vacancy rate fell significantly as Hana Card, WeWork and Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance moved to locations such as Center Place, Jongno Tower and Booyoung Taepyeong Building repectively, which had been unoccupied for over a year after tenants such as Samsung Life Insurance and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance moved out. Hana Card and KEB Hana Bank’s call-centers moved from Jongno Samil Building

into seven floors at Center Place, taking up 12,500 sq m of vacant space. Ctrip (a Chinese online travel agency) and Amazon moved into and began their call-center operations in Jongno Tower and Pine Avenue A, respectively.

Also contributing to the declining vacancy rate in the CBD, SK Innovation and a number of SK subsidiary companies relocated to four floors in Gran Seoul. This relocation comes as construction begins on the remodeling of SK Group’s main headquarters in SK Seorin Building in-to an open workspace and hot-desk layout. Seoul Square’s 10,200 sq m of vacant

Graph 3

Take-up, Q3/2018

CBD50.9%

GBD19.1%

YBD30.0%

Secondary to prime34.7%

Prime to prime24.8%

Expansion20.7%

New organisation

19.8%

By type


Graph 4

Net absorption, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018


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Unit: sq m CBD GBD YBD

By district

space shrank following the move-in by WeWork during the previous quarter as well as expansions by Mercedes-Benz and 11 Street, prime-to-prime relocations by Dongbu Steel and Exxon Mobil Korea from buildings near Seoul Station, and upgrade relocations by Oilhub Korea Yeosu and La Prairie.

The GBD’s vacancy rate rose to 8.0% despite a rise in demand due to new supply. As of end of September, Gangnam N Tower had leased 40% of its office space. Expansion of co-working spaces continues even in the GBD, with FastFive opening a new branch in Platinum Tower and Dream Plus, a co-working brand operated by



Hanwha group, signing an expansion contract for three floors of Hanwha Finance Center Seocho. In addition, much of the vacant office space has been taken, with upgrade relocations by companies such as an eyewear group Luxottica Korea (ASEM Tower), security consulting firm HackersLab (Platinum Tower), and genetic services company Genoplan Korea(Kyobo Gangnam Tower).

The YBD recorded a vacancy rate of 15.6% for Q3/2018, a significant drop from 24.5% in Q1/2018 and a continuation of a declining trend from the previous quarter. IFC 3 and FKI Tower which faced a massive surplus of space after losing LG, leased a combined 34,400 sq m of space to various companies in the financial industry such as banks, securities companies, asset management companies and foreign-owned entreprises. Samsung Securities’ IT team moved to FKI Tower from KT Yeouido Building, and KB Bank’s IT department started moving in to one floor this quarter, with plans to expand its presence to four floors. Seeking additional workspace after expanding its workforce, both KB AMC and KClavis AMC moved to IFC 3. In order to save costs, Diageo moved to IFC 3 from Gangnam Finance Center.

In addition, tenants are relocating to nearby prime office buildings ahead of the demolition of the Teachers’ Pension HQ. The Teachers’ Pension HQ will be demolished by 2019, and reconstruction will begin in 2020. Call-center solutions provider Bridgetec has moved to Yeouido Finance Tower, and SV Investment to IFC 3.

RentIn Q3/2018, average face rent for Seoul prime office space was KRW97,000/3.3m², up 1.8% year-on-year (YoY) and up 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). Rental growth varied by district, recording 2.6% in the CBD, 1.4% in the GBD, and 0.6% in the YBD YoY, and 0.1% in the CBD, 0.5% in the GBD QoQ, while the YBD remained the same QoQ. After rising earlier this year, rent prices remained stable in Q3/2018 compared to the previous quarter.

OutlookFour prime office buildings (totaling

321,600 sq m) have been completed,

as scheduled, in 2018: Centropolis

(CBD), Luceen Tower and Gangnam N

Tower (GBD), and The K Tower (Korea

Teachers’ Credit Union Building) in the

YBD.

In the CBD, Kumho Tire will move

to Heungkuk Life Building from the

Concodian (formerly Kumho Asiana

Main Building) in Q4. Moreover, legal

firm Shin & Kim plans to relocate to

D Tower from State Tower Namsan

in Q1/2019, but these movements

by themselves will not impact on

the CBD’s vacancy rate because

they are considered prime-to-prime movements. During Q4, SK Shipping

will relocate to Seoul Square from SK Namsan Building, located near Seoul Station, and FastFive will open a new branch (first in the CBD) at Signature Tower, lowering vacanices in the CBD. More vacancies in the CBD will shrink when SK Telecom’s new division and Kumho Asiana Group both move into the Centropolis, either by end of this year or early next year. However, since the newly-constructed Centropolis now represents 4% of the CBD`s total prime office area, the CBD’s vacancy rate is expected to rise with the inclusion of Centropolis in our Q4 analysis of rent and vacancy rates.

The GBD’s vacancy rate, which has risen due to new supply, is expected to fall to 6% in the next quarter. IT

Graph 6

YoY rental increase rate by district, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018

Source: Savills Korea, Bank of Korea

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CBD GBD YBD CPI growth rate(YoY)


Graph 5

Seoul prime office vacancy rate, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018

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CBD GBD YBD



To From

District Building Tenant Area (sq m) District Building

CBD

Gran Seoul SK Innovation 14,300 CBD SK Seorin Building

Center Place Hana Card 7,200 CBD, Non-core Samil Bldg/ Chungjeongno/Mullae

Booyoung Taepyeong Building Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance 6,000 CBD Meritz Fire & Marine Insurance Bongnae 1 Bldg

Center Place KEB Hana Bank 5,300 CBD Samil Building

Pine Avenue A Amazon 4,400 GBD, New GS Tower/ New

Jongno Tower WeWork 3,900 New

KCCI Ministry of Economy and Finance 3,000 New

GBD

Hanwha Finance Center Seocho Dream Plus 5,200 Expansion

Platinum Tower FastFive 3,700 New

ASEM Tower Luxottica Korea 3,300 GBD GuGu Building

DB Finance Center DB Finance 3,200 Expansion

YBD

IFC 3 KB AMC 6,600 YBD Shinhan Investment Tower

FKI Tower Samsung Securities 6,400 YBD KT Yeouido Building

Yeouido Finance Tower Bridgetec 4,000 YBD Teacher's Pension HQ

FKI Tower KB Kookmin Bank 3,400 YBD KB Kookmin Bank Yeouido Data Center

and BT businesses in high-growth industries and upgrade relocations by tenants within the GBD will drive down the vacancy rate. Medical devices manufacturer BD Korea will relocate to Arc Place from Iimsung Building in Yeoksam-dong, as well as an e-commerce company eBay Korea, currently located in Gangnam Finance Center, will open a new office. With no additional new supply in sight until the end of 2020, the GBD’s vacancy rate is expected to fall steadily.

Driven by aggressive leasing marketing, the falling vacancy rate in the YBD is expected to persist into Q4/2018. FKI Tower will lease out four additional floors to Kookmin Bank’s IT services, lowering the YBD’s vacancy rate by 1 ppt. Also in Q4, Novartis (Yonsei Severance Building), Marsh & McLennan (Seoul Finance Center), and Quad Investment Management (The K Twin Towers) will all move out of the

CBD prime offices in to IFC 3. This will lead to a decrease in the YBD vacancy rate and an increase in the CBD vacancy rate.

Transactions and Investment marketThe office investment market continued its strong momentum in Q3/2018. Total office transaction volume for Q1/2018-Q3/2018 came to KRW8.6 trillion (KRW2.4 trillion in Q3/2018), reaching a level of 97% of last year’s transaction volume, which was already a record number. Including the Samsung C&T Seocho megadeal, which was worth over KRW500 billion, in Q3/2018 all of the market’s prime building transactions have occurred in the GBD.

With abundant liquidity in the market, overall asset prices rose by Q3 while the average unit price set a new record. With domestic securities firms actively underwriting deals, the portion of overseas investors through

Q3 dropped to 12%. On the back of

October’s Centropolis deal, estimated

to be worth over KRW1.1 trillion, the

percentage of overseas investors is

expected to be similar to last year.

A KORAMCO–NH Investment

Securities consortium acquired the

Samsung C&T Seocho building

located in Samsung Town for

KRW748.4 billion. Samsung Town

consists of three buildings near

Gangnam Station: Samsung Life

Insurance, Samsung C&T and

Samsung Seocho Building. With

Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance

as the master tenant until 2021, the

building traded hands at KRW30.5

million per pyeong, recording the

market’s highest ever unit price per

pyeong. NH Investment & Securities

underwrote the deal and both NHUF

(National Housing and Urban Fund)

and NACF (National Agricultural

Cooperative Federation) are known to

have participated as investors.

Table 3

Major tenant relocations, Q3/2018




The Gangnam N Tower, developed by Yeoksam PFV, was acquired by KB Real Estate Trust for KRW452.5 billion. KB Real Estate Trust and S1 purchased KRW10 billion in common stock in KB Gangnam Office No.1 REITs. Two securities firms acquired the remaing portion. The seller, Yeoksam PFV, will guarantee rental income of KRW2 billion every month up to KRW24 billion for one year, and will additionally provide tenant improvements worth KRW2 billion as well as marketing expenses. The office leasing contract ratio at the time of completion was 12%, but the rate increased to 40% as of the end of September 2018.

KB Securities, Hana Financial Investment and Yuanta Securities acquired Gangnam P Tower, the current HQ of SPC. Located in Yangjae-dong, Gangnam P Tower was sold for KRW318 billion through Hangang Asset Management. Hangang Asset Management recently acquired the entire stock of KOCREF Yangjae REITs.

Platinum Tower was purchased by Orion Partners for KRW214 billion via share transaction. Keumkang Housing also purchased the Gangnam Finance Plaza for KRW183 billion through Mastern Investment management. Keumkang Housing, which already owns Keumkang Tower as its corporate HQ near Gangnam Finance Plaza, has increased its investment in the GBD as its corporate earnings have risen.

In Q3/2018, the average prime office cap rate stood at 4.7%, calculated using face rent and 90% occupancy. However, considering leasing concessions (such as rent free and tenant improvement incentives) and actual occupancy rates, the effective cap rate is in the low to mid 4% range. At the end of September, the five-year Treasury yield increased to 2.18%, meaning a prime office cap rate spread of approximately 252 bps. Typical LTV rates in Korea remain at approximately 55%.

Graph 7

Office transaction volumes, Q1/2008 – Q3/2018

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Unit: KRW (Trillion) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4


Graph 9

Five-year Treasury bond yield and the BOK base rate trend, Jan 2012 – Sep 2018

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5yr Treasury bond yield The Bank of Korea base rate

Source: Bank of Korea

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Spread (RHS) Cap rate (LHS) 5yr Treasury bond yield (LHS)

Graph 8

Prime office building cap rate trend, Q1/2007 – Q3/2018

Source: Savills Korea, Bank of Korea



JoAnn HongDirectorKorea+82 2 2124 [email protected]

Savills Korea

Please contact us for further information

Savills plcSavills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has over 500 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.

This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.

Savills Research

Simon SmithSenior DirectorAsia Pacific+852 2842 [email protected]

Crystal LeeCEOSavills Korea+82 2 2124 [email protected]

Seunghan LeeSenior Director Leasing & Marketing+82 2 2124 [email protected]

Shinjae LeeAssociate DirectorPM Services+82 2 2124 [email protected]

Myungchul LeeAssociate DirectorPM Services+82 2 2124 [email protected]

Miah YangSenior DirectorRetail Service+82 2 2124 [email protected]

Kookhee HanSenior DirectorInvestment Advisory+82 2 2124 [email protected]

Source : Savills Korea

Table 4

Major investment transactions, Q3/2018

District Building Name Seller Buyer Transacted area(sq m)

Transaction Price (KRW bil)

CBD Samil Building Small Rock Investment IGIS AMC 35,204 155.0

GBD

Samsung C&T Seocho Building Samsung C&T Koramco AMC 81,117 748.4

Gangnam N Tower Yeoksam PFV KB Real Estate Trust 51,126 452.5

Platinum Tower Mirae Asset Global Investments Mirae Asset Global Investments(Orion Partners)

33,700 / 37,182 (GFA) 214.0

Gangnam Finance Plaza Pebblestone AMC Mastern AMC 24,179 183.0

Narae Building JS AMC Pebblestone AMC 13,973 78.5

Seocho Gangnam P Tower Koramco AMC Koramco AMC(Hangang Asset AMC) 44,129 318.0

DMC Dragonfly DMC Tower Dragonfly eSang Networks 19,743 43.5



AppendixOverview of the Seoul office market and Savills Korea office survey

Close to 60% of large office buildings (30,000 sq m or more) in Seoul are located in three major business districts – the CBD (30%), GBD (17%) and YBD (13%). The CBD is the largest of these districts and is home to major government and multinational institutions. The GBD also houses many multinational companies and is an information technology centre, while YBD, the "Wall Street" of South Korea, includes the headquarters of major securities firms and broadcasting companies.

The Savills Korea Quarterly Office survey is the longest running survey

TABLE 5

Summary of surveyed buildings, Sep. 2018

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy

of prime office stock in Seoul. Established in 1997, it currently comprises 95 of the 122 buildings in Seoul classified as "prime" buildings.

Prime buildings: Buildings with a GFA greater than 30,000 sq m with good accessibility and facilities, a high level of finish, and creditworthy blue-chip tenants.

Monthly rent: Surveyed rents are "face rents", the asking rents reported by landlords for mid-level floors. These rents are standardised by Savills Korea to account for variations in the security deposits required by different

CBD GBD YBD Total

A

Number of buildings 23 12 10 45

Average GFA (sq m) 85,000 99,000 99,000 92,000

Average year of completion 2006 2004 2005 2005

B

Number of buildings 22 20 8 50

Average GFA (sq m) 54,000 48,000 45,000 50,000

Average year of completion 2004 2001 1996 2002

Total number of buildings 45 32 18 95

Total area (sq m) 3,150,000 2,140,000 1,350,000 6,630,000

landlords to produce an effective rental figure for NLA.

Cap rate calculation methodCap rate: (income from interest on security deposit (5%) + face rent of a standard floor + residual income from maintenance fee) × occupancy rate (90%) × 12 / transaction amount.

For comparison of cap rates of each transaction case, a 5% interest rate on security deposit and 90% occupancy rate were uniformly applied.

briefing seoul office sector q3 2018 · briefing seoul offlce sector q3 2018 hanwha group, signing...

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