ByA. Suaidi Ahadi , B. K.Yumoto , C. Gunawan Ibrahim , D. Hendra Grandis

A. BMKG, Geomagnetic Observatory of Tuntungan Jl. Geofisika No1 Tuntungan Pancurbatu Medan, INDONESIA, su4idi@yahoo.com

B. SERC-Kyushu Univ., Space Environment Research Center Kyushu University 53 6-10-1 Hakozaki Higashi-ku Fukuoka Postal Code 812-8581 JAPAN, yumoto@serc.kyushu-u.ac.jpC. ITB,Faculty of Earth Science and Technology Jl Ganesha 10 ITB Bandung, INDONESIA,

gunib@geoph.itb.ac.idD. ITB, Faculty of Minning and Petroleum Engineering Jl Ganesha 10 ITB Bandung, INDONESIA,

h.grandis@gmail.com

Out Line• Introduction• Recent Result Earthquake Precursor with

Electromagnetic• ULF (ultra-low-frequency) associated with

Earthquake• Indonesia Early Warning System • Proposal Earthquake Precursor In West

Sumatera For the Modeling study Earthquake Early Warning system in Indonesia.

• Case Study Padang Earthquake 2009

EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Introduction

Introduction

• Earthquake prediction method can not use statistical methods, because earthquakes do not have a clear time dimension as we study the Science’s atmosphere that has the earth's rotation and revolution of the earth to the sun. needed now is how we study earthquake precursors.

• Earthquake Precursor Earthquake Prediction.

Courtesy Prof. Widodo

Why?Why?

Conceptual view of the EM signals

Possibility ofSignal occurrence

DC-ULF EMphenomena

VLF-VHF EM waves

EQ10 daysMicro-fracturingMicro crack-electrificationHydro-chemical changes (Radon)Electrokinetic phenomena

Net charge accumulation Ionospheric disturbances

Signal emission(DC-ULF, ELF, VLF. LF, MF, HF, VHF)

Anomalous transmission (OMEGA, VLF, FM(VHF))

From Hattori

How We Build Earthquake Warning System with Power Full?

KOPYTENKO DKK., (1990) => SPITAK EQ , 1988FRASER-SMITH., (1990) => LOMA PRIETA EQ,1989MOLCHANOV ET AL.,(1992) => COMPARE SPITAK AND LOMA PRIETA EQ.HATTORI ET AL., (2007)=> STUDY ANALYSIS EQ PRECURSOR TO GEOMAGNETISM DATA.YUMOTO ET AL., (2009) => A NEW ULF ANALYSIS EQ PRECURSOR

Recent Result Earthquake Precursor with Electromagnetic

Earthquake Precursor Recent study• Earthquake-earth, Kagoshima, Japan (March 3,

1997), MJMA = 6.5 which is recorded in the H component Taramizu station is 65 km from the epicenter, there is increased emission of electromagnetic waves Ulf few weeks before the event (Hattori et al., 2002).

• Earthquake-earth Hokubu, Japan (3 September 1998), MJMA = 6.1 recorded in H-Nairiku Iwaken station is 15 km from the epicenter, there is increased emission of electromagnetic waves of 16 (sixteen) days before the event (Hattori et al., 2004 ).

• Earthquake-earth of Biak, Indonesia (February 17, 1996) MMw = 8.2 is 100 km from the station-earth Magnet Schouten (LAPAN '), an increase in emissions of electromagnetic several months before the incident (Hayakawa et al., 2000).

• Earthquake-earth Chi-Chi, Taiwan, 21 September 1999, MMw = 7.7 is 135 km from the station-earth Magnet Taiwan, an increase in emissions of several months before the incident (Akinaga et al., 2001).

Hattori,2006

Fraser-Smith, 1990

THE ULF EMISSION CAN BE OBSERTABLE WITHIN THE EPICENTER DISTANCE OF ~ 100KM FOR EARTHQUAKE WITH M = 7, WHILE ~70 – 80 KM FOR EARTHQUAKE M = 6 ( HAYAKAWA AND HATTORI,2004).

ULF (ultra-low-frequency) associated with Earthquake

A new ULF wave analysis for Seismo-Electromagnetics (Yumoto et al., 2009)

• Polarization ratio (Z/H) The power ratio between the horizontal (H) and the vertical (Z) component

of Pc 3–4 magnetic pulsations observed at the station(RIK) near the epicenter of the 1999/05/12 Kushiro earthquake.

• Power ratio between two stations (AR/AM) The H- and Z-component Power ratio of Pc 3–4 magnetic pulsations

observed at the station (RIK) near the epicenter to those at the remote reference station (MSR). ULF anomalies may be observed at the station (RIK) near the epicenter, but not at MSR, which is far from the epicenter.

• Power ratio of one-day vs. one-year-average (AD/AY) The H- and Z-component power ratio of each day power to the one-year-

average power (annual Mean) at the station (RIK) near the epicenter. A change of the power ratio may occur before the earthquake.

ULF (ultra-low-frequency) associated with Earthquake

Case Study : Khusiro EQ, 1999 (Yumoto et al., 2009)A.Plot the blue line is the power ratio (Z / H) for Pc 3 for daily variations Komp. Z / H, plotted in black lines are the mean and the plot line in gray is the standard deviation in Rikubetsu station (RIK) during the last six months which is associated with the earthquake (red line), 12 May 1999 (Yumoto et al., 2009 )B.Plot the blue line is the daily variation comp. Pc H-3 power ratio AR (RIK) and AM (MSR) (RIK / MSR = AR / AM), the plot line of black color is the average price (Average running) and the plot line in gray is the standard deviation. The red line is the plot of earthquake occurrence time (Yumoto et al., 2009).C.Plot the blue line is the Daily Variation Komp. H (AD) against the average annual (Annual Mean) / (one year average) (LM); (AD / LM) at the same station (RIK). Plot black line is averaging (running average) and the plot is a gray line standard deviation (Yumoto et al., 2009)

A

B

C

NOW INDONESIA HAVE A INA-TEWS (INDONESIA TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM )WE PURPOSE FOR INDONESIA EARLY EARTHQUAKE WARNING SYSTEM (INA-EWS) WITH EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR BASED ON ULF BAND.

Indonesia Early Warning System

INDONESIA EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

• Now Indonesia Have a Ina-TEWS (Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System )

• We Purpose for Indonesia Early Earthquake Warning System (Ina-EWS) with earthquake precursor based on ULF Band.

PROPOSAL EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR IN WEST SUMATERA FOR THE MODELING STUDY EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN INDONESIA

PROPOSAL RESEARCH

FM-CW radar

Magnetic Equator Chain

ILRLKW

AAB

WAD

GLYASB

HLN

TGG

DAV

TIR

ASW

CXI

EUS

ANC

PIU TJL CBT

CNT ICA ARC

CYN MCP BLM SLZ

TRS NTL

SVD

RDJ

BDPSFY IZM

FYM

PSD 　　 KTM

DKR

MRV

JUBNRB

DES KAS

LSK

BIR

MPT

DBN

LAG

MAGDAS Planned MAGDAS Installed

MAGDAS II PlannedMAGDAS II Installed

96°MM Chain

210°MM Chain

ABJ

AUS

BCL

PI: Prof. K. Yumoto

MNL MUT

MAGDAS (MAGnetic Data Acquisition System) Network at SERC, Kyushu Univ.

EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM WITH GEOMAGNETIC PRECURSOR.

Final Result

Early Warning System Early Warning System With Geomagnetic With Geomagnetic

PrecursorPrecursor

Co-Seismic ElectromagneticDi Sumatera

MONITORING PLAN MEGNETOMETER MAGDAS-9 SERC-BMKG DAN ITB

PADANG EARTHQUAKE, 2009Case Study

Polarizaton Z/H Moving Average Earthquake Signature EQ

Padang Earthquake,2009

Earthquake ParameterDate : Wednesday, 09/30/2009OT : 17:16: 09 ( local Time) 10:16:09 (UTC)Epic : 0.88 S – 99.55 EMagnitudo : 7.6 (Ms)Depth : 71 Km

The Other Earthquakebefore Padang EarthquakeEarthquake Parameter

• Earthquake MadinaEarthquake ParameterDate : Saturday, 09/19/2009OT : 17:50: 30 ( local Time) 10:50:30 (UTC)Epic : 0.71 N – 99.91 EMagnitudo : 5.1 (Ms)Depth : 10 Km

•Earthquake NiasEarthquake ParameterDate : Saturday, 09/19/2009OT : 21:28: 09 ( local Time) 14:28:30 (UTC)Epic : 0.88 S – 99.55 EMagnitudo : 7.6 (Ms)Depth : 28 Km

في ��ْو َو�َل ��َم اَلِع#ْل &ْو�ا &ُب &ْط�ْل ا

اَلِّص+يِن#"Insist although science to China.“ (al Hadist)