brian wernham “chaos: a new perspective on agile governance” presented at apm governance sig,...
TRANSCRIPT
Brian Wernham
“Chaos: a new perspective on Agile governance”
Presented at APM Governance SIG, London, May 14, 2014
Delegates’ 50%
discount
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Why are YOU here today?
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What is ‘Agile’?‘Agile’ only for
web development?
‘Agile’ only for tiny stuff?
‘Agile’ = loss of control?
What is ‘DSDM’?
‘Agile’ in mission critical
projects?
What is ‘Scrum’?
Are we talking Governance of a project
of Governance of portfolios of change?
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This talk:1. What is ‘Agile’?
2. What is Agile Governance?
3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of the unexpected?
- Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity
4. Kick-off the development of a guide for Agile Governance
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1. What is Agile?
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The “Big Design Up Front” mind-set
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I had better ask
for all possible
features…
At last – a chance to get what I
want!
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The Big Design Up Front is born…
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The result of Big Design Up Front…
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D’oh!http://bit.ly/About-Brian
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As difficult as trying to swim up a waterfall…
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Scrum at the team level – two popular methods…
ScrumDSDM
1. ‘Scrum’ – a team level approach
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Source: Mike Cohn www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum
15Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering More)
An overview of two agile methods2. ‘DSDM’ – a hybrid team/project level approach
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2. What is Agile Governance?
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a) Time Driven
“I don’t want it perfect – I want it Thursday”
Traditional Agile
Agile inverts the normal project management paradigm…
b) … and minimises Work in Progress
“There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse”
Traditional Agile
Design
Build
Test
Deploy
P/type
?
P/type
P/type
P/type
Agile focuses on flow…
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Can we define Agile Governance principles at several levels:
Project Level? Governance of one specific project? Scrum? DSDM?
Programme Level? Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both:
Waterfall projects & Agile projects?
Portfolio Level? Governance across many projects?
Is ‘Agile Governance’ really about being adaptable?
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TraditionalProject
Innovationproject
HybridProgramme
Design
Build
Test
Deploy
P/type
P/type
P/type
P/type
Control-freakGovernance
AgileGovernance
Arms-lengthGovernance
InnovationProject
InnovationProject
TraditionalProject
TraditionalProject
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3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of the unexpected?
A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions) How long is a piece of string? (Fractals) Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states)
Complex outcomes from simple systems Self-organisation
Ants People (so very different?)
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Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lostFor want of a shoe the horse was lostFor want of a horse the battle was lost…
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Heat convection – any difference in initial conditions produces an unpredicatble outcome after a while:
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Increase the feedback and the Lorenz equation becomes unstable and ‘chaotic’:
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Complexity out of simplicity
e.g. the Lorenz Equation
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Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lostFor want of a shoe the horse was lostFor want of a horse the battle was lost…
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“No two snowflakes are the same”
A simple fractal - The Koch Curve
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“No two snowflakes are the same”
A simple fractal - The Koch Curve
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How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)
Ruler length = x Answer = y
Ruler length x/2 Answer = y*2.5
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The result runs away from you the closer you try to measure it…
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The ‘fractal dimension’ measures this disappearing event horizon
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How long will it take to add “just a bit more detail” to a business case or spec?
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Alternative stable states
“Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems”Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001
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Self-organisation - Ants
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Self-organisation - Ants
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Self-organisation - People
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References
Daňa, Josef “Chaos Theory in Project Management”, Masaryk University, Brno
2014 Christopher, Martin
“The Agile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets”, Industrial Marketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp. 37-44
Yang, C “Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents”, Drexel
University Scheffer, Marten
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature, 2001
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4. Kick-off the development of a guide for Agile Governance
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[email protected]: brianwernham.wordpress.com
@BrianUkulele http://bit.ly/About-Brian
`
Thanks for listening!
http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50
Delegates’ 50%
discount`