brian wernham - agile governance and chaos theory v05 - cleaned
TRANSCRIPT
Brian Wernham
“Chaos: a new perspective on Agile governance”
Presented at
APM Governance SIG, London, May 14, 2014
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Why are YOU here today?
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What is
‘Agile’? ‘Agile’ only for
web
development? ‘Agile’ only for
tiny stuff? ‘Agile’ = loss of
control?
What is
‘DSDM’?
‘Agile’ in
mission critical
projects?
2
What is
‘Scrum’?
Are we talking
Governance of a project
of Governance of
portfolios of change?
This talk:
1. What is ‘Agile’?
2. What is Agile Governance?
3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of
the unexpected?
- Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity
4. Kick-off the development of a guide for
Agile Governance
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1. What is Agile?
4
The “Big Design Up Front”
mind-set
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I had better ask for all
possible features…
At last – a chance to get what I
want!
5
The Big Design Up Front is born…
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The result of Big Design Up
Front…
7
D’oh! http://bit.ly/About-Brian
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As difficult as trying to swim up a
waterfall…
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Scrum at the team level – two
popular methods…
Scrum
DSDM
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1. ‘Scrum’ – a team level approach
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Source: Mike Cohn www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum
15 Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering More)
An overview of two agile methods 2. ‘DSDM’ – a hybrid team/project level approach
2. What is Agile Governance?
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a) Time Driven
“I don’t want it perfect – I want it Thursday”
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Traditional Agile
Agile inverts the normal project management paradigm…
b) … and minimises Work in Progress
“There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse”
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Traditional Agile
Design
Build
Test
Deploy
P/type
?
P/type
P/type
P/type
Agile focuses on flow…
Can we define Agile Governance
principles at several levels:
Project Level?
Governance of one specific project?
Scrum? DSDM?
Programme Level?
Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both:
Waterfall projects
& Agile projects?
Portfolio Level?
Governance across many projects?
19
Is ‘Agile Governance’ really about
being adaptable?
20
Traditional
Project
Innovation
project Hybrid
Programme
Design
Build
Test
Deploy
P/type
P/type
P/type
P/type
Control-freak
Governance
Agile
Governance
Arms-length
Governance
Innovation
Project
Innovation
Project
Traditional
Project
Traditional
Project
3. Can we be ready for & take
advantage of the unexpected?
21
A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory
Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)
How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)
Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states)
Complex outcomes from simple systems
Self-organisation
Ants
People (so very different?)
Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial
conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse the battle was lost…
22
Heat convection – any difference in
initial conditions produces an
unpredicatble outcome after a
while:
23
Increase the feedback and the
Lorenz equation becomes unstable
and ‘chaotic’:
24
Complexity out of simplicity
e.g. the Lorenz Equation
25
Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial
conditions)
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse the battle was lost…
26
“No two snowflakes are the same”
A simple fractal - The Koch Curve
27
“No two snowflakes are the same”
A simple fractal - The Koch Curve
28
How long is a piece of string?
(Fractals)
29
Ruler length = x
Answer = y Ruler length x/2
Answer = y*2.5
The result runs away from you the
closer you try to measure it…
30
The ‘fractal dimension’ measures
this disappearing event horizon
31
How long will it take to add “just a
bit more detail” to a business case
or spec?
32
Alternative stable states
33
“Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems”
Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001
Self-organisation - Ants
34
Self-organisation - Ants
35
Self-organisation - People
36
References
Daňa, Josef
“Chaos Theory in Project Management”, Masaryk University, Brno
2014
Christopher, Martin
“The Agile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets”, Industrial
Marketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp. 37-44
Yang, C
“Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents”, Drexel University
Scheffer, Marten
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature, 2001
37
4. Kick-off the development of a
guide for Agile Governance
38
Blog: brianwernham.wordpress.com
@BrianUkulele
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`
Thanks for listening!
39
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