brescia meeting review & definition of the new base case

Institute for Environment and Sustainability 1

Date & Time

09:30 - 10:30 Status review and improvementsBaseCase (1) problem review and actions taken (20’)Improvements to emission inventory (20’)Improvements to meteorology (20’)

JRC

10:30 - 10:55 Model evaluation: CHIMERE INERIS

10:55 – 11:15 Coffee Break

11:15 - 11:40 Model evaluation: EMEP EMEP

11:40 - 12:05 Model evaluation: CAMx CESI

12:05 - 12:30 Model evaluation: RCG FUB

Lunch break

14:00 - 14:25 Model evaluation: AURORA VITO

14:25 - 14:50 Model evaluation: TCAM Univ. Brescia

14:50 - 15:20 Model results: Overview & discussion JRC

15:20 - 15:40 Coffee break

15:40 - 16:25 Emission scenarios & Future simulations JRC

16:25 - 16:45 AOB JRC


Brescia meeting review&

Definition of the new base case


Mean PM10 concentrations in Lombardy (all station types): percentage errors

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

All year Summer Winter

%

AURORA 3km RCG 3km CAMx 3km CHIM 3km TCAM 6km AURORA 6km

RCG 6km CAMx 6km EMEP 6km CHIM 6km EMEP 50km CHIM 50km

3 km 6 km 50 km


Average O3 concentrations in Lombardy (all station types): Percentage errors

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

All year Summer Daytime

%

AURORA 3km RCG 3km CAMx 3km CHIM 3km TCAM 6km AURORA 6kmRCG 6km CAMx 6km EMEP 6km CHIM 6km EMEP 50km CHIM 50km


To be checked by modelling groups

• CHIMERE: scale consistency of the results between 3 and 6 km (time step?)

• EMEP: Problems related with meteorology (high peaks in mountain areas)

• CAMx: Good correlations but high summer O3 values.

• RCG: Temporal distribution for PM components

• AURORA: Only two months available. High O3 summer values

• TCAM: Good performance for O3 but strange seasonal distribution for PM

Results Overview: Brescia (February 2009)

Overall: - Large underestimation of the PM levels. - Large variability among models for O3 levels


• Check individual modelsModel presentations: Improvements to the models & interpretation of the results

• Check emissions (Cinzia)

• Check meteorology (Emilia)

Sensitivity tests

Definition of a new base- case


Meteorology

1. Wind speed divided by 2 at surface, unchanged at model top, linear decrease in between2. Increase of roughness length uniform to 0.5 m everywhere3. Use of nudging option in MM5

Emissions

1. Seasonal re-allocation of wood burning emissions (PM & VOC *1.3, NOx unchanged)2. Uncertainty on emission factors from wood burning (PM * 2.3, VOC * 1.3)3. Uncertainty on emission factors from transport (PM & VOC * 1.25, NOx * 1.1)4. Impact of temporal distribution of the heating emissions (in terms of degree-days)

Informatic

1. From 32 to 64 bits machine

General

1. Impact of local (i.e. Po-Valley) surface and point sources2. Impact of transport and residential heating sector sources3. Impact of NH3 emissions

Sensitivity runs: CHIMERE, January, 6km


PM10

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

roughness length (Z0 * 5)

Wind intensity (W/2)

Nudged meteo

WB seasonal reallocation (VOC-PM)

WB emission factor (VOC-PM)

S7 emission factor (VOC-Nox-PM)

32-64 bit compiler

WB temporal distribution

Impact of NH3 emissions

Impact of S2 emissions

Impact of traffic

Impact of all Surf. Sources

Impact of all sources

Impact of Traffic & heating

Mean Lomb

Bormio

Ispra

Milan


• Check emissions

• Check meteorology

Sensitivity tests

Definition of a new base-case

1. Nudged MM5 meteorology

2. New temporal factors for wood burning


6 km 3 km

CH

IM

EM

EP

CA

Mx

RC

G

AU

RO

RA T

CA

M

CH

IM

CA

Mx

RC

G

TC

AM

100-110-111

BC2005 (1)

200-210-211

BC2005 (2)

300-310-311

2012 CLE

Notes - MM5 meteorological data (Kz = 0 from 18/06 to 12/08)- All model results uploaded in the tool

Delivery status


Date & Time

09:30 - 10:30 Status review and improvementsBaseCase (1) problem review and actions taken (20’)Improvements to emission inventory (20’)Improvements to meteorology (20’)

JRC

10:30 - 10:55 Model evaluation: CHIMERE INERIS

10:55 – 11:15 Coffee Break

11:15 - 11:40 Model evaluation: EMEP EMEP

11:40 - 12:05 Model evaluation: CAMx CESI

12:05 - 12:30 Model evaluation: RCG FUB

Lunch break

14:00 - 14:25 Model evaluation: AURORA VITO

14:25 - 14:50 Model evaluation: TCAM Univ. Brescia

14:50 - 15:20 Model results: Overview & discussion JRC

15:20 - 15:40 Coffee break

15:40 - 16:25 Emission scenarios & Future simulations JRC

16:25 - 16:45 AOB JRC


Model results OVERVIEW


• Base case 2

• Base case 1 vs. Base case 2

• Impact of spatial resolution: 6 km vs. 3 km

• First results for 2012 CLE scenario

• Conclusions & discussion


BC2


PM

10


BC1

O3


BC1 vs. BC2

PM10


PM2.5 emission reallocation - Mountain

0

0.5

1

1.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

months

Rat

io B

C2/

BC

1

PM2.5 emission reallocation - Plain

0

0.5

1

1.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

months

Rat

io B

C2/

BC

1

VOC emission reallocation - Mountain

0

0.5

1

1.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

months

Rat

io B

C2/

BC

1

BC2: Change in emissions

PM2.5 – PM10 VOC

Mountain Mountain

Plain


PM10 Winter Averages (All Lomb stations)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CHIM EMEP CAMx RCG AURORA TCAM

ug/m

3

BC1 BC2

OBS

+13%

-20%

+10% -

-

+8%


PM10 (all Lomb stations)

0.0

10.020.0

30.040.0

50.0

60.070.0

80.0

Oct Nov Dec Jan Fev Mar

ug

/m3

BC1 BC2 OBS

13% 5% 34% 42% 9% -9%

CHIM

Emis. Incr. -15% +5% +30% +45% +20% 0%



0.0

10.020.0

30.040.0

50.0

60.070.0

80.0


ug

/m3

BC1 BC2 OBS

-21% -19% 3% -9% -14% -26%

EMEP


0.0

10.020.0

30.040.0

50.0

60.070.0

80.0


ug

/m3

BC1 BC2 OBS

10% 8% 17% 19% 22% -11%

CAMx


0.0

10.020.0

30.040.0

50.0

60.070.0

80.0


ug

/m3

BC1 BC2 OBS

6% -2% 5% 3% -5% -6%

RCG


0.0

10.020.0

30.040.0

50.0

60.070.0

80.0


ug

/m3

BC1 BC2 OBS

-7% -5% 13% 13% 10% -13%

AURORA


0.0

10.020.0

30.040.0

50.0

60.070.0

80.0


ug

/m3

BC1 BC2 OBS

4% 4% 55% 22% 13% -30%

TCAM


0.0

10.020.0

30.040.0

50.0

60.070.0

80.0


ug

/m3

BC1 BC2 OBS

13% 5% 34% 42% 9% -9%

CHIM


PM10 Exc days (All Lomb urban stations)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


ug

/m3

BC1 BC2

PM10 correlation (All Lomb stations) - Monthly means

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1


BC1 BC2

45%10%

8%

2%

15%

47%


Lombardy Ispra

Milan Bormio

PM10

BC1

BC2


BC1 vs. BC2

O3


O3 summer means (All Lomb stations)

0102030405060708090

100


BC1 BC2

No major change with the exception of RCG: Net improvement


O3 exceed. Days 120 ug/m3 (All Lomb rural stations)

0102030405060708090

100110120


BC1 BC2

O3 correlations (All Lomb stations) - monthly means

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1


BC1 BC2


Lombardy Ispra

Milan Bormio

O3

BC1

BC2


BC1 vs. BC2

Other species


BC1


BC2


BC1


BC2


6km vs. 3 km


O3 JulyCAMx


PM10 JanuaryCAMx


PM10 winter averages BC2 (All Lomb stations)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

CHIM CAMx RCG AURORA

6 km 3 km

PM10 Exceed. D 50ug/m3 BC2 (All Lomb urban stat.)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


6 km 3 km


O3 summer means BC2 (All Lomb stations)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


6 km 3 km

BC1


O3 Exceed. D 120ug/m3 BC2 (All Lomb rural stat.)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


6 km 3 km

BC1


Chimere O3 July

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 60 119 178 237 296 355 414 473 532 591 650 709

hours

ug

/m3

6 km

3 km

72.5Averages

75.6

ISPRA

72.676.7

33.840.3January


Ispra January PM10

010203040506070

1 65 129 193 257 321 385 449 513 577 641 705

hours

ug

/m3

6km

3km20.121.5

Milano January PM10

020406080

100120140

1 66 131 196 261 326 391 456 521 586 651 716

hours

ug

/m3 6km

3km45.045.9


2012 CLE


Lombardy Total emissions

050

100150200250300350400450

PM2.5 PMC SO2 VOC Nox NH3

kTo

ns 2005

2012

Po-valley PS emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

PM2.5 PMC SO2 VOC Nox

kTo

ns 2005

2012

Lombardy PS emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

PM2.5 PMC SO2 VOC Nox

kTo

ns 2005

2012

Po-Valley Total emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1000

PM2.5 PMC SO2 VOC Nox NH3

kTo

ns 2005

2012

-9% -3%-30%

-13% -16%

-2%


PM10 Exc. days (All Lomb urban stations)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


2005 BC2 2012 CLE

-18%

-10%

-20%

-39%

PM10 winter average (All Lomb stations)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


2005 BC2 2012 CLE

-4%

-6%-9%

-10%

Bound. conditions

PM 10%


O3 Exc. days (All Lomb rural stations)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


2005 BC2 2012 CLE

-32%

9%10%

O3 Exc. days (All Lomb rural stations)

0102030405060708090

100


2005 BC2 2012 CLE

3%

6%

7%

11%

Bound. conditions

O3 5%


Conclusions


• There is an overall improvement with the BC2 results, especially for PM. Levels are in average 10% larger in winter and correlations and predictions of exceed. days are improved. O3 is mostly unchanged and in good agreement with observations (averages and time variations).

• PM is still largely underestimated (35% yearly for the model ensemble)

• Importance of meteorology (sensitivity tests & BC2)• Speciation (Ispra). Good for SIA (TCAM?) but lack of

Particulate organic matter• No impact from 6 to 3 km• Little impact of 2012 CLE emission reductions (5 to 10%

decrease for PM and 5 to 10% increase for O3 averages)


• Models do react differently to the BC2 changes (e.g. EMEP, RCG…). Temporal variations are shifted: many models predict higher concentrations in Oct-Nov and show little changes between BC1 and BC2. Some models do show opposite behaviour (EMEP)

• Impact of scale resolution (from 50 to 6) for PM is very different for EMEP and CHIMERE (55% vs 3% for BC2 yearly, 75% vs. -3% winter). For summer O3, it is more consistent: 30% vs 50%.

• No major changes for O3 overall averages but significant changes in terms of correlation and standard deviation for RCG and TCAM.

• Some significant changes in PM speciation for some models (e,g. POM for TCAM)

• Further work: - Understand better model differences- 6km vs 3 km- Meteorology- Vertical profiles


Scenario planning

Institute for Environment and Sustainability 51Europe Po-Valley Lombardy

2005 BC

2005 BC1 2005 BC1

2005 BC2 (emissions Temp fac.+met)

2005 BC2

2005 (APAT only) ? 2005 BC3 (APAT)

2005 Lombardy background

2012 CLE

2012 CLE

2012 CLE

2012 AQP

2012 CES

2012 MFR

2012 MFR 2012 MFR

2012 CLE (Po traff & Inemar 2007)?

2012 CLE (Meteorology 2)

2012 CLE (Bound. Cond. CHIMERE)

2012 CLE (Po backg)

2015 CLE 2015 CLE (AQP?) 2015 AQP

2020 CLE2020 CLE (AQP?)

2020 AQP

2020 CES

2020 MFR 2020 MFR

2 5 7 9 7 7 7 8 7 7 7

CHIMERE – EMEP – CAMx – RCG -- AURORA


• More meteo (data assimilation)• Biogenic emissions• New output (diffusion coeff, biog emissions, vert profiles)• VOC: C12-C20


01/01/2010 2010

6 km – 3km

CHIM 2012 CLE

2012 BC-CHIM (6)

2012 AQP (3)

2005 Biogenic

3 1

EMEP 2005 BC2 (new) (6)

2012 BC-CHIM (6)

2005 Biogenic3

CAMx 2005 BC2 (new) (6)

2012 AQP (3)

2005 APAT EMIS (6) (TBC)

2005 Biogenic

3 1

RCG 2005 BC2 (new 6)

2012 METEO2 (6)

2012 AQP (3)

2005 Biogenic

3 1

AURORA 2005 BC2 (new) (6)

2012 AQP (3)

2005 Biogenic

2 1


AOB


• Improvements to tools (Linux, version nb…)• Emission BC tests (CHIMERE?)• Reporting

– Model reports– Publications

• Model Overview (CHIM, AURORA, TCAM)• Date & location for next meeting


All domain February emission totals (difference with input)

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Nox NH3 VOC PM2.5

February

EMEP CAMx RCG AURORA TCAM

Emission tests


Extras


BC1


BC2

brescia meeting review & definition of the new base case

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