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Breeders Cup 2016

Compendium

V1.0 – 4th NOVEMBER 2016

V1.0 – 4th NOVEMBER 2016

FINAL

All Races Complete

A Geegeez Publication, helping people have more fun with their betting since 2006


Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 6

Notes ....................................................................................................................................................... 7

FRIDAY ..................................................................................................................................................... 8

9.25pm GMT Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf) ............................................................................. 8

Key Trends (9 renewals to date) ......................................................................................................... 8

How the runners fit ............................................................................................................................. 8

Pace ..................................................................................................................................................... 8

Key Trials: ............................................................................................................................................ 9

Summary: ............................................................................................................................................ 9

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 10

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 10

Juvenile Turf Selection: ..................................................................................................................... 10

10.05pm GMT Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (1m, Dirt) ................................................................................. 11

Key Trends (9 renewals to date) ....................................................................................................... 11

How the runners fit ........................................................................................................................... 11

Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 11

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 11

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 11

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 13

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 13

Dirt Mile Selection: ........................................................................................................................... 13

10.50pm GMT Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf) ................................................................ 14

Key Trends (8 renewals to date) ....................................................................................................... 14


Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 14

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 14

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 15

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 16

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 16

Juvenile Fillies’ Turf Selection: .......................................................................................................... 16

11.35pm GMT Breeders Cup Distaff (1m1f, Dirt) ................................................................................. 17

Key Trends (32 renewals to date) ..................................................................................................... 17



Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 17

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 17

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 17

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 18

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 18

Distaff Selection: ............................................................................................................................... 19

SATURDAY ............................................................................................................................................. 20

7.05pm GMT Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m1/2f, Dirt) ................................................................... 20



Pace: .................................................................................................................................................. 20

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 20

Summary: ...................................................................................................................................... 20

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 21

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 21

Juvenile Fillies Selection: ................................................................................................................... 21

7.43pm GMT Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf (1m2f, Turf) .................................................................. 23



Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 23

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 23

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 23

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 24

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 24

Filly and Mare Turf Selection: ........................................................................................................... 24

8.21pm GMT Breeders Cup Sprint (6f, Dirt) .......................................................................................... 26



Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 26

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 26

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 26

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 27

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 27

Sprint Selection: ................................................................................................................................ 27


9.05pm GMT Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (6 ½f, Turf) .............................................................................. 29

Key Trends (8 renewals so far) .......................................................................................................... 29


Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 29

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 29

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 29

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 31

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 31

Turf Sprint Selection: ........................................................................................................................ 31

9.43pm GMT Breeders Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt) .............................................................................. 32

Key Trends (32 renewals so far) ........................................................................................................ 32


Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 32

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 32

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 32

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 34

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 34

Juvenile Selection: ............................................................................................................................. 34

10.22pm GMT Breeders Cup Turf (1m4f, Turf) ..................................................................................... 35



Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 35

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 35

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 35

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 37

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 37

Turf Selection: ................................................................................................................................... 37

11.01pm GMT Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f, Dirt) ................................................................... 38

Key Trends (9 renewals so far) .......................................................................................................... 38


Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 38

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 38

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 38

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 39


Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 39

Filly and Mare Sprint Selection: ........................................................................................................ 39

11.40pm GMT Breeders Cup Mile (1m, Turf) ....................................................................................... 40



Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 40

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 40

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 40

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 42

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 42

Mile Selection: .................................................................................................................................. 42

12.35am GMT Breeders Cup Classic (1m2f, Dirt).................................................................................. 43

Key Trends (32 renewals so far) ........................................................................................................ 43


Pace ................................................................................................................................................... 43

Key Trials: .......................................................................................................................................... 43

Summary: .......................................................................................................................................... 43

Main Contenders: ............................................................................................................................. 45

Other Possibles: ................................................................................................................................ 45

Classic Selection: ............................................................................................................................... 45


Introduction Hello, or perhaps howdy! And welcome the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Compendium, a collection of

information designed to fast track your awareness of the various facets required for a successful

Breeders’ Cup wagering expedition.

For a record-breaking ninth time, BC XXXIII travels to Santa Anita in Arcadia, California: the Spiritual

Home of the Breeders’ Cup.

The track has a short run from the home turn to the finish – just a furlong and a half – so track

position into and through the home turn will be crucial, especially on the inner turf oval.

This guide has various sections for each race, as follows:

Race trends

Trends grid showing how contenders match up

Pace analysis

Key Trials, including links to race videos

Form summary

Contenders, and Possibles

My pick

It is, of course, up to you, the reader, how you use the info. Some will treat it as a starting point for

their own study, others will see it as an end point and follow me in on various selections.

However you decide to use this guide, please bet responsibly (duh!) and remember that a little

knowledge is a dangerous thing, especially in pursuit of a late night weekend winner. ;-)

All that said, I hope the information within these covers provides for profit as well as fun.

Right, let’s get to it!

Matt Bisogno


Notes Some shorthand has been used in the grids within this document, as follows:

*= a Racing Post Rating, rather than a Beyer speed figure (US rating). The comparison, which is not

exact, is that RPR is roughly 12-15 points higher than Beyer

s= ran within four lengths of the leader

t= turf run

2 in ‘G1 winner? Column’ = 2nd in a Grade/Group 1

‘Bullet’ workouts are the fastest timed workouts of the day at a specific track/distance

Ran sharp = A Crushing The Cup reference to finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd, or within 4 lengths of the winner

Figs = figures, i.e. Beyer or RPR

Lasix = a permissible drug in USA that helps prevent horses from bleeding, banned in UK

LTO = Last Time Out

Wire = a confirmed front runner

Stalk = a prominent racer

Rally = a closer, or late runner, normally held up in the early part of the race

PACE: LR = Last Run, 2LR = 2nd Last Run, 3LR = 3rd Last Run, 4LR = 4th Last Run

Scores: 4 – LED or less than ½ length from lead; 3 – ½ L to 1 ½ L; 2 – 1 ¾ L – 3 ¼ L; 1 – 3 ½ L+

Also Eligible: In preference order, only get a run if others in the main order do not.


FRIDAY

9.25pm GMT Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (9 renewals to date) Euro 6 US 3 (4-1 at SA)

2-6 runs (6/9 had 4 or 5 runs - Prior Starts: 2-1/3-1/4-4/5-2/6-1)

2/3 US won at 1m, only 1/6 Euro won at 1m

1st-3rd Fav 3 from 27 (9 renewals)

9/9 Top 3 LTO or within 2L of winner

0 Front Runner winners (7 CLOSERS, 2 PROMINENT)

5 of the 7 Euro winners (and US Hootenanny) had recorded an RPR of 110+

Euro winners placed in G1/2 LTO, or won ungraded stakes

Euro winners 20-42 days absent; US 20, 49, 68 days absent

Pilgrim Stakes (2016 winner, Oscar Performance) is considered a key prep but still without a

winner

How the runners fit

Pace

Wellabled has only one way to run so far, leading in all four career starts. Aidan O’Brien’s Lancaster

Bomber has been front rank mostly also in recent times; and, though Keep Quiet has tracked the

lead in his last two starts, he ought to be close again. Oscar Performance is another who has led in

his last two starts, as is Channel Maker. This ought to be brisk early.


Key Trials: The key trial race videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-day-1-

video-form-guide-juvenile-turf-dirt-mile-distaff/

Summary: A full field and they could be well strung out by the end of the first turn, with Aidan O’Brien’s

Lancaster Bomber one of the pace angles. He’s got stall one to assist in getting prominent, but there

is speed in box two so he’ll need to trap alertly. Wellabled will tack over from nine to mix it early,

too, and it may be that a conservative waiting ride a la Hit It A Bomb last year will pay dividends.

This is a race in which the last four versions at Santa Anita has been won by a Euro, with all Euro

exactas in two of those years. Ballydoyle has Intelligence Cross in support of the Bomber, and Britain

is represented by Simon Crisford’s Rodaini.

On form, Lancaster Bomber’s second in the Dewhurst looks the strongest line; but the suspicion is

that he had the run of things from the front there, something he’s unlikely to get to himself this

time. Moreover, I’m not convinced the extra furlong will aid his ability to resist a packing field of

closers even if the fast ground is in his favour.

Intelligence Cross has to prove he stays. All of his six races to date have been at six furlongs, though

he did leave the impression at Newmarket that a longer range would suit better. If that’s right, he

looks the best of the Euro trio.

Rodaini, who completes the three, was whacked in the Autumn Stakes most recently. It was a race

where everything went wrong – missed the break, found trouble in running, wasn’t knocked about –

and it is clearly a long trip to make. But if he misses the start here, he is again likely to find trouble,

and that is not the sort of horse I want to wager, even if his bare form may be slightly better than

the expected huge tote odds offered about his chance.

The home defence is led, according to the market at least, by Good Samaritan and Oscar

Performance. The former was unhurried and won well in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes last time,

where Channel Maker was an eye-catcher (pulled, chopped in his run three times, stayed on well).

The Samaritan is two from two and looks set to get the run of the race with his closing style

offsetting an ostensibly tough post in eleven. He has comfortably the quickest speed figure of the US

contingent.

By contrast, it looks all against Oscar Performance. His bold front-running metier will be

inconvenienced by stall 13 as well as by the presence of other trail blazers. Whether he can deliver

an Oscar performance with the deck seemingly stacked against him is unlikely in my opinion.

Moreover, he bids to break the Pilgrim hoodoo: that race, considered a key prep and which OP won,

has yet to unearth a Juvenile Turf winner.

Big Score is more appealing. He won the ungraded Zuma Beach Stakes last time by more than three

lengths on his first attempt on the Santa Anita sod. Three wide for the entire race, he can be marked

up a touch for the way he put the race to bed, cruising clear off very fast early fractions (21.89 for

the first quarter, 44.83 for the half mile). This will be a big step up but he has shown he deserves to

be in the game.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-day-1-video-form-guide-juvenile-turf-dirt-mile-distaff/



Keep Quiet got the better of Ticonderoga in the Bourbon Stakes four weeks ago, having been much

better placed throughout that mile and a sixteenth Grade 3. If the runner up may have been a little

unlucky, his tendency to hang down the straight was unattractive and, in any case, the time of the

race did little to raise the pulse. I can see Ticonderoga reversing form but it would be surprising if

either was good enough to prevail in a strong-looking renewal.

Todd Pletcher’s Made You Look had Keep Quiet two lengths back in second when he won the Grade

2 With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga but, again, that form may be a beat or two below what is

required here.

If there is to be a shock winner, it might be the Canadian raider, Channel Maker. As alluded to, he

was unlucky in the Summer Stakes, though some of that misfortune was of his own making. Still,

with a fast pace almost certain and a good draw in three to track it, he will have first run on the

closers making 40/1 worth a second squint.

Main Contenders: Intelligence Cross, Good Samaritan, Big Score

Other Possibles: Lancaster Bomber, Channel Maker

Juvenile Turf Selection: This is a very competitive race with what looks to be a clearly defined pace. It will be fast, and it

should set up for a late-running type or, just maybe, for a stalker that gets first run.

In the more likely closer scenario, Intelligence Cross, Good Samaritan and Big Score all have solid

claims. Intelligence Cross, with his unproven stamina, is about the right price: he can certainly win,

and is probably the class horse in the field; but that is factored into his quote so he’s reluctantly

overlooked on value grounds.

Good Samaritan was an impressive winner last time, and has the top North American speed figure by

some margin. He rates a bet to put the home team back on the Juvenile Turf scoresheet.

So too does Big Score, whose comfortable victory in an ungraded stakes last time achieved less but

promised more than Good Samaritan’s Summer Stakes effort.

For those who like jam on their bread for small unit tickles, Channel Maker is for you. His last run

was a good run on the bare form, but watch the tape and you may agree that it is worth marking up.

If you do, 40/1 will switch you on.

½ pt win GOOD SAMARITAN 6/1 bet365

½ pt win BIG SCORE 10/1 Skybet, Coral, Hills

¼ pt e/w CHANNEL MAKER 40/1 Skybet


10.05pm GMT Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (1m, Dirt)

Key Trends (9 renewals to date) All 9 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out (only 2 won)

All 9 notched at least one 100+ Beyer in their last two races

8/9 had 4+ runs in the year (exception 2015 winner, Liam’s Map), 6/9 had 6+ runs in year (3 of

the last 4 had 5 or less runs in year)

Seasonal run breakdown: 3-1/4-1/5-1/6-2/8-2/9-1/10-1

Layoff: 8/9 27-42 days

6/9 'turned back' in distance (2/3 exceptions were Goldencents)

Top 3 favourites: 5/9: Fav 2/9; 2f 2/9; 3f 1/9

Age 3-2/4-6/5-1 = 8/9 3 or 4yo (6/9 4yo)

8/9 had won a Graded Stakes

How the runners fit

Pace

Dortmund and Runhappy both habitually run from the front, but neither is totally dependent on it. It

is slightly more likely that Runhappy, with his sprint speed, will get first run but, with only Accelerate

of the rest threatening to mix it early, no horse should be especially inconvenienced by the way the

race is run.



Summary: A stretch run of just a furlong and a half means the winner of most dirt races will be rolling long

before the completion of the arc into the straight. They start where they finish on this mile oval with

a very short run to the first turn. As such, Runhappy will need his best gate speed, something he

hasn’t always produced, to clear his field and lead.

Dortmund, beaten by California Chrome in his last three starts, unsurprisingly opts for this easier

grade and looks set to go very close. To my eye, the only thing that can beat him is if his jockey tries




to hook up in a speed duel with Runhappy. That shouldn’t happen and Dortmund looks solid, albeit

at a short enough for many 11/10. I imagine he’ll go be odds-on come post time.

His main market rivals are Runhappy and Gun Runner but neither has convinced this term.

Runhappy, the brilliant winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint, has raced just once this season,

when fourth in a Grade 3 over a mile at Churchill. There, he showed good speed to half way before

falling away as the 1-5 favourite.

It is very likely he needed the run, but he’ll have to come on a stone to threaten the jolly. As for Gun

Runner, he has probably never been good enough. In what might be a weak three-year-old division,

a point accentuated by Arrogate’s bamboozling win in the three-year-old only Travers Stakes – Gun

Runner 15 lengths (!) third – this fellow has failed to win in three, and been beaten by six lengths or

more in a couple of those.

Gun Runner drops back to a mile for the first time since winning on his lifetime debut, but though

stamina won’t be the question mark it is with Runhappy, ability looks established as not quite good

enough.

From a betting perspective, the good news is that it is 12/1 bar three, so if you don’t like Dortmund –

or don’t want to back him at 11/10 – the race has a reasonable each way shape to it.

Tamarkuz started out with Saeed bin Suroor before swapping to Dubai trainer, Musabah al Muhairi.

In five runs for the latter last season, he won the last four, including two Group 3’s and a Group 2. He

was then switched to Kieran McLaughlin in New York, from where he’s failed to win in six.

Despite running well in his last two races, second in both, he’s not a big enough price for me. That’s

not to say he won’t make the frame, but rather that as a value proposition I feel there are better

options.

Vyjack was no match for Masochistic (goes for the Sprint) in the 7f Pat O’Brien two back, but it was a

different story over a turf mile last time when he came from far back to take the whole pie in Grade

2 company. Ignoring a run on the Belmont slop this time last year, he’s raced thrice over a dirt mile,

winning the G2 Kelso Handicap a couple of years ago, and being trounced in G1 fields the other

twice.

I was actually pretty interested in his chance at a price in the Mile on turf, but he’s not for me in this

slot, though again he may make the frame, especially if they go hard early.

They bet 25/1 bar, a price which brings us to Texas Chrome. This chap is a three-year-old with two

redeeming features. First, he’s won his last three, in minor stakes grade. Second, his form is not tied

to that questionable merit previously alluded to of the Grade 1 3yo races this term.

He was six lengths behind Gun Runner back in June but looks to have stepped forward since then

while his shorter-priced vanquisher that day seems to have found his level.

The conundrum of whether he’s good enough obviously remains, but he won his only mile race by

ten lengths and he is 25/1. That’s got to be worth buying a small piece to find out.


And if big priced longshots are your thing then you might want to look twice at Point Piper as well. A

six-year-old, he’s had 25 races, winning five of them. But he managed to deliver a career best two

starts back, and if you can overlook a modest effort four weeks ago – when he may have had one

eye on this race – he’s interesting at 28/1.

33/1 Tom’s Ready probably isn’t good enough, though he did win the Ack Ack in which Runhappy

was only fourth last time; while 66/1 about Accelerate is not the completely hopeless tickle it might

appear. This lightly-raced three-year-old failed to make it to the track last year, but has won the

most recent half of his six 2016 races, culminating in victory in the Los Alamitos Derby. That form

isn’t strong enough to win this, but he’s improving – steadily, not wildly – and has found a winning

knack. He’s also 66/1.

Main Contenders: Dortmund

Other Possibles: None especially

Dirt Mile Selection: By now it will be clear that I really like Dortmund in this. I think he has the tactical versatility to rate

off Runhappy’s expected early charge, even if he might prefer to lead himself. He stamina in

abundance for this task, and he has class.

I’m against both Runhappy and Gun Runner – the former with fitness and stamina doubts, not to

mention whether he’s still the same horse; the latter seems exposed as not quite up to this. And the

next few in the market don’t look worth the each way risk either, though the likes of Tamarkuz and

Vyjack can hit the board.

That brings me to a teeny interest each way, in the without market, and ‘underneath’ in the exacta

on Texas Chrome and Point Piper, perhaps even Accelerate if he’s a big enough price on the day.

3 pts win DORTMUND 11/10 Skybet

¼ pt e/w TEXAS CHROME 25/1 PP, Betfair

¼ pt e/w POINT PIPER 28/1 Skybet

3 x $2 exactas Dortmund to beat Texas Chrome, Point Piper or Accelerate


10.50pm GMT Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (8 renewals to date) All 6 US winners ran in Miss Grillo or Natalma

US 6 Euro 2 (both Euro in the two non-Lasix years)

7/8 finished top 3, or within 1.5L of the winner, last time out (exception ran in Miss Grillo)

7/8 won at 1m+ (exception, Flotilla, 1.5L behind in Arc weekend G1)

All 8 finished top 3, or within 1.5L of the winner, in a Stakes race

Frontrunners 1, Prominent 4, Late runners 3 (SA: Prominent 2, Late Run 3)

Layoff: 3wks-1/4wks-2/5wks-3/7wks-2 (Euro 4-5wks)

Prior Runs: 2-3; 3-1; 4-2; 5-1; 6-1

Looking for an 80+ Beyer for 3+ previous runs, lower for 2 runs (more scope)

2 Euro winners prepped in G1 races (1st, 1.5L 4th)

How the runners fit

Pace

Hydrangea is the key filly here. Second in her last two starts, both in Group 1 company, she looks a

probable trailblazer from the inside stall. But she is not the only runner that likes to go on, and

stablemate, Roly Poly, is expected to be handy also. Clearly, it is improbable that Roly Poly will take

Hydrangea on and, with the former’s sprint speed, she may be the hare for Ballydoyle’s current

favourite G1 bridesmaid.






Summary: As with the opening Juvenile Turf, Aidan O’Brien has two to go to post. But this time, his son, Joseph,

is also represented. It is unclear which of Roly Poly and Hydrangea will lead: the latter is proven at

the trip and normally leads while the former has been running prominently at six furlongs and must

demonstrate her stamina.

It may be a case of throwing two darts because there is not a single clear contender at Ballydoyle.

That is how it feels to me, though Hydrangea brings a high calibre of form to the table having

finished second in both the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile. She was

beaten further in the Fillies’ Mile over a longer trip, and I don’t really see her getting home unless

she can get a very easy lead.

Intricately bids to make Joseph O’Brien – still only 23! – the youngest ever to train and ride a

Breeders’ Cup winner. She won the Moyglare (seven furlongs, soft) on merit, and though this

engagement (a mile, firm) is very different, she is bred to appreciate quicker turf if not certainly the

longer distance.

Even though Europe has a poor record in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf, we are mob-handed in the event

this year. Ireland’s trio is joined by Spain Burg, newly naturalized in the US but a French filly

throughout her racing career to date; Cavale Doree, another Frenchie, beaten less than four lengths

in the G1 Marcel Boussac last time; Madam Dancealot, now with Richard Baltas but imported from

Joseph Tuite’s UK yard and unraced as yet in her new country; and Rymska, having her first run for

Chad Brown after finishing second in the Miss Grillo for France’s Pia Brandt. Phew.

It is a contest every bit as convoluted as it sounds, and that’s not even the half of it.

As touched on, Europe has a poor record in the race to date, just two wins from eight renewals. That

those two were in the two ‘no Lasix’ years may be just coincidence. Then again, it may not. What is

for sure is that the home team requires strong consideration in this race.

Favourite is a homer – after a fashion – in the shape of Spain Burg. Winner of the seven furlong Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket last time, she was much too good for her rivals there and was subsequently sold at the Arqana Arc sale to American owners for €1,500,000. She was immediately scratched from a planned run at Chantilly over Arc weekend and shipped to the US where she will appear for the first time since, in the care of Kathy Ritvo.

Ritvo is a top trainer – she handled Mucho Macho Man to win the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic – and Spain Burg is sure to have been well prepared. Although the daughter of Sageburg has not won over a mile yet, she was going away over seven furlongs last time in the manner of a filly that can improve for the extra trip. She looks a strong contender.

The form of Intricately and Hydrangea is intertwined through that Moyglare finish but, with beaten filly now proven over a fast ground mile, I’d slightly favour her to reverse the form at the prices (she’s a point and a half bigger).

I’m really not sure what to make of Roly Poly. She’s been on the go a long time – seven races since April – and has definite class, as you’d expect from a filly by War Front out of a triple Group 1 winner (Misty For Me). She should get the mile, and she might just be the pick of the Irish.


Cavale Doree is a big price at 20/1. She ran creditably in the Prix Marcel Boussac, given too much to do before staying on to be fifth of eleven, beaten under four lengths. A big price but probably a fair price.

In her last start for Pia Brandt, Rymska claimed the silver medal in the Miss Grillo, a key prep for this. That was a very slowly-run affair, and Rymska was always well placed. But still, she had already shown smart form in France including when winning her maiden on firm ground and then a minor stakes race.

Chad Brown is the man with turfers Stateside, and already has two of the eight Juvenile Fillies’ Turfs to his name – Maram in 2008 and Lady Eli two years ago, both here at Santa Anita. Indeed, six of Brown’s seven Breeders’ Cup wins have come in turf races.

Brown also saddles the Miss Grillo winner, New Money Honey, and she looks the more likely of the pair. With just two runs under her belt, it was an impressive step forward to bag that Grade 3 score and she has obvious scope to step forward again. 14/1 is a very attractive option, and Rymska should not be forgotten either, given her odds of 25/1 and Brown’s ability to improve a filly.

La Coronel has achieved slightly more than New Money Honey, including when beating that filly on her debut, but she has taken four starts to do it, suggesting slightly less scope. Still, she’s unbeaten in two since switching to turf and barrelled home in the Grade 3 Jessamine Stakes last time.

The Grade 1 Natalma is, along with the Miss Grillo, the most informative trial, and it was won this year by Victory To Victory. She was always well placed and had too many guns for her rivals there, none of whom line up here.

Main Contenders: Spain Burg, Hydrangea, New Money Honey

Other Possibles: Roly Poly, Intricately, Victory To Victory, Intricately, La Coronel

Juvenile Fillies’ Turf Selection: As you may have gathered from the length of the contenders and possibles lists, this is a wide open

heat and not one in which I’ll be getting too excited. Given the history of the race, and the price bias

against the North American runners, it makes value sense to root through the form of that section of

the field.

In that context, I reckon New Money Honey is seriously over-priced at 14/1. She’s likely to go off

around 5/1 on Friday.

Victory To Victory is the same price, and is also too big. Ditto La Coronal, who is a 9/1 chance. And

ditto Rymska at 25/1. I’m happy to split a fun point between those four.

¼ pt win LA CORONEL 9/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes

¼ pt win VICTORY TO VICTORY 14/1 Coral, Betfred

¼ pt win NEW MONEY HONEY 14/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes, Hills

¼ pt win RYMSKA 25/1 general


11.35pm GMT Breeders Cup Distaff (1m1f, Dirt)

Key Trends (32 renewals to date) 27/32 won by 3 or 4yo's (including the last 17)

17/32 won by 4yo's (including 10 of the last 14)

31/32 finished top 3 or within 4L of winner last time out

20 of the last 25 winners ran 6-8 times in the year

22/28 1m1f Distaff winners had won at the distance already

Layoff: 27/31 less than 35 days (all since 1998, except Untapable and Stopchargingmaria in

the last two years)

21/28 1m1f Distaff winners had won a Grade 1

The favourite is 13/32 (41% SR)

30/32 had recorded a Beyer of 100+

How the runners fit

Pace:

A terrific race in prospect and the pace looks as unpredictable as the outcome, regardless of the

betting. Songbird will be front rank, as will Beholder, and so too probably I’m A Chatterbox. Not

much more patiently ridden is likely to be Stellar Wind, and if the lead is contested between the two

more established players, Stellar Wind could be the finisher.



Summary: Eleven runs, eleven wins, by an aggregate of 60 ½ lengths. What is not to love about the beautiful

Songbird? Honestly? Nothing. And yet…

If we poke a little deeper into that spotless record, there are a couple of niggles. Three in fact.

The first is the clock, or at least the Beyer interpretation of ol’ tickety-tock. Songbird has troubled

the triple digit trackers only once in that eleven-race sequence when she recorded a 101. In her

defence – not that she needs my support there – that career high speed figure was produced in her




only try at the nine-furlong Distaff distance. Moreover, it is not her fault that she’s been unextended

to bash the daylights out of every filly reckless enough to line up alongside. And yet…

In four juvenile starts she raced exclusively against her own age group. There’s nothing wrong with

that of course – it’s absolutely the norm. But in seven races this term, she has still yet to face an

older rival. Here she is then, stepping out of Under-21 class and into Open company for the first

time. Is she good enough? Probably. Possibly. It depends on the quality of the open company she

will face.

And therein lies the third niggle. She is facing not one but two extremely talented older horses in

Beholder and Stellar Wind.

Beholder was considered the main – many felt, the only – danger to American Pharoah in the 2015

Classic until spiking a temperature after a troubled ride to Keeneland and scratching from the main

event, where she was bidding for a record third Breeders’ Cup win in three different events. There

are no such travel headaches here, on her home sand, where she has a record of 13 wins from 15

starts.

She was second in the other two, once in 2013 and then last time out, a neck behind Stellar Wind.

Beholder is six now and, though she carries her class brilliantly – she’s notched Beyer figures of 101-

101-106-110 in her last four starts – there is an aura of aging susceptibility about a finishing position

sequence of 1222 in that quartet of rapid shemozzles.

It can readily be argued that she was unlucky to record a 110 and get beaten – not many horses do

that each year – and it was against Stellar Wind to whom she gave best, by no more than a neck, in a

thrilling stretch battle. Her conqueror, a four-year-old daughter of Curlin, has been lightly raced this

season, competing just three times.

Beaten into second by Beholder on the first of those, she has turned the tables in both subsequent

matchups, and her form cycle has a likably upward trajectory to it. She looks set to enjoy a good trip

just off the heels of the leaders – expected to be Beholder, I’m A Chatterbox, and possibly Songbird –

and if she can match or better her last run she is the biggest danger to Songbird’s unbeaten

sequence.

It looks a fantastic race, and one which is very hard to call. My heart says Songbird, my value head

says Stellar Wind.

The rest probably don’t count.

Main Contenders: Songbird, Stellar Wind, Beholder

Other Possibles: None


Distaff Selection: An awesome race in prospect, and one in which the best filly is likely to win. If it is Songbird, she will

confirm her status as the undisputed queen of the breed – on dirt at least – by closing out an

undefeated twelve-from-twelve record.

If it is Beholder, it will be a record-equalling third Breeders’ Cup victory for her, adding to wins in the

Juvenile Fillies of 2012 and the Distaff of 2013. She’s not been seen since at a Breeders’ Cup

meeting.

And if it is to be Stellar Wind, she will have capped a steady ascent to the peak, and be going one

better than her second place in last year’s Distaff. She is a much smarter filly this year, and at the

prices she looks the one to be on.

1.5 pts win STELLAR WIND 7/2 general


SATURDAY

7.05pm GMT Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m1/2f, Dirt)

Key Trends (32 renewals to date) 13 of the last 14 had 3-5 career starts

Last 14, career runs: 2-1,3-6,4-4,5+-3

Layoff: 28/32 were running within 30 days

26/32 had a Grade 1, 2 or 3 win, from 58% of the runners

25/32 improved their Beyer when stepping up to 7f+

17/22 fillies improved Beyer when racing 7f+ for 1st time (excludes pre-Beyer BC's and winners

with no 7f+ form)

90+ Beyer = very strong contender

29/32 were top 4 or less than 4L behind the winner last time out

Favourite is 18/32 (56%)

"Look beyond obvious when trials were slow"

How the runners fit

Pace:

Tricky. Plenty of these have only run twice and are yet to show an established run style preference.

The likes of Dancing Rags, Colorful Charades and Americal Gal may all be front rank, as might be

Noted And Quoted. This is a trappy race on form and there is little in the way of guidance from the

likely pace setup.

Key Trials: The key trial race videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-juvenile-

fillies-video-form-guide/

Summary:

A really interesting – and open – race. The key form lines normally come from the Chandelier,

Frizette and Alcibiades Stakes.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-juvenile-fillies-video-form-guide/

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-juvenile-fillies-video-form-guide/


In the Chandelier, run over this course and distance, Noted And Quoted got the better of With

Honors in the last 100 yards with Champagne Room back in fourth. The last named was checked a

couple of times and eased off when beaten, but still it is hard to envisage a form reversal.

The Frizette was won by Yellow Agate, who took time to get rolling but finished strongly. That was

also true when she won her maiden over six furlongs, Jamyson n’Ginger running on from an

impossible position.

The latter then recorded a monster speed figure in the slop when stepping up to a mile. That run

may have been discredited a little because of the state of the surface, but close inspection of her

previous run – over a deeply inadequate trip – suggests she ought to get very close to the winner

that day this time.

Meanwhile, in the Alcibiades, Dancing Rags, who was always handy, just held on from the late-

running Daddy’s Lil Darling. I’d expect the closer to turn the form around here.

Valadorna won her maiden easily on her second start, having a wide trip but always travelling

comfortably and going away at the finish. She looks a player here, too.

In the seven furlong Spinaway, Sweet Loretta was all out to dead heat with the absent Pretty City

Dancer, and she looked anything but a filly who would improve for this furlong and a half longer

range. Moreover, in a race where the ‘now’ filly often gets the garland, Loretta has been off the

track for 63 days.

The favourite, however, is none of the above. Her name is Union Strike and she was impressive in

beating Noted And Quoted and Champagne Room amongst others in the Del Mar Deb. That was

over seven furlongs, Union Strike being ridden as though a touch outpaced mid-race before going

away at the finish. The extended mile looks right up her street and she’d be an obvious winner,

though she too has been off for two months.

American Gal has won both starts, the latter in ungraded stakes company in a fast time. She’s been

firing bullet workouts and looks all speed. The question with her is whether she will stay, having not

raced – or trained – beyond six furlongs. Although it would surprise nobody if she won, I reckon

she’s more likely to line up in the Filly and Mare Sprint next year than the Distaff.

Main Contenders: Union Strike, Yellow Agate, Jamyson N’Ginger

Other Possibles: Daddy’s Lil Darling, Valadorna

Juvenile Fillies Selection: It really is a very difficult race to weigh up. Union Strike’s form against fancied rivals on a local track

makes her a definite contender, and she’s priced accordingly. She’s short enough off a layoff,

though.

Yellow Agate is unbeaten in two, finishing off well in both, and has the second-best speed figure to

her name. She rates a bet at around 6/1 (13/2 Betway, usual comments apply).


And I have to take the chance with Jamyson N’Ginger. Yes, her big win was in the soup, but it was

also a step up from six to a mile, and I feel that latter point has been under-accommodated in a

generous-looking quote of 12/1 (16/1 Betway, I wish I could get on with them!)

1 pt win YELLOW AGATE 6/1 general (13/2 Betway)

1 pt e/w JAMYSON N’GINGER 12/1 general (16/1 Betway)


7.43pm GMT Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf (1m2f, Turf)

Key Trends (17 renewals to date) All 8 US winners were 1st or 2nd LTO; 2/3 ex-Euro imports 1st LTO; 1/6 Euro 1st LTO!

Layoff: US 10/11 35 days or less; Euro, anything goes!

Age: 3-3 (all Euro, only one since 2004); 4-8; 5-4; 6+1

US have won 5 of last 6 and 7 of last 9

15 of 17 - 4-7 runs this season (other 2 had 3 starts, incl 2014 winner)

SA FM Turf winning PPs: 123446. Draw could be material

How the runners fit

Pace:

This should be pretty quick early, with both Catch A Glimpse and Pretty Perfect generally liking to

lead in their races. Avenge is another who wants to get on with things, and though I don’t know for

sure, it would be no surprise if the Chile filly, Kitcat, was close up early. This might be a race which

changes complexion significantly in the final furlong as tiring pressers are caught and passed by

more measured runners.

Key Trials: The key trial videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-filly-mare-turf-

video-form-guide/ .

Summary: A(nother) trappy little race. Lady Eli is a class horse and a deserved favourite. She is also a bit of a

story horse, having recovered from laminitis (a hoof ailment that claimed the life of former Breeders’

Cup Turf winner, St Nicholas Abbey).

Trained by top turf conditioner, Chad Brown, she was the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf winner of 2014

covering a mile of this ten-furlong course. Since then, she’s had a full year off between summer 2015

and late August of this year. Her return was excellent in spite of it being the first defeat of a thereto

seven race career.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-filly-mare-turf-video-form-guide/

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-filly-mare-turf-video-form-guide/


That three-quarter length second was the springboard for a career top speed performance when

Lady Eli claimed the Grade 1 Flower Bowl four weeks ago. She had less than a length to spare over a

rallying Sentiero Italia, with Sea Calisi – also digging in late – back in third, two lengths behind the

winner.

There is again likely to be little between the trio. Godolphin’s Sentiero Italia has been consistent but

the niggle is she always finds at least one to beat her at Grade 1 level. This is a super-G1 so it would

be a shock, to me at least, if she didn’t again fail gallantly.

Sea Calisi, however, does have Grade 1 winning form as recently as two starts back, in the Beverly D

Stakes. The former Francois Doumen inmate, now with Chad Brown, has won two of her four races

since being stabled Stateside, and looks to be steadily progressing. She could be primed for a career

best, which she’ll need to defeat a strong field.

This is an international field, the second and third in the betting representing Ireland and Britain

respectively. Aidan O’Brien’s Seventh Heaven had looked highly progressive in winning back-to-back

Group 1’s, but clunked in both the Oaks and the Champion Filly and Mare Stakes, where in her

defence she was given plenty to do from a rare Ryan Moore misjudgement.

Her Yorkshire Oaks run, where she had Found and Queen’s Trust in the minor podium positions,

gives her every chance, and fast ground will be no issue.

Queen’s Trust re-opposes. Sir Michael Stoute’s lightly raced three-year-old has made the frame in

each of her last three races, all at the top level. But a record which includes just one win, on debut, is

unappealing for all that she ought to finish close to Seventh Heaven.

The global flavour is added to with a touch of wasabi, courtesy of Nuovo Record. This smart mare

has some excellent performances to her name, mostly in defeat, including a length second to A Shin

Hikari in the Hong Kong Cup last December. A repeat of that effort would make her a player but, like

the Stoute filly, she doesn’t have a great win record; and her connections (laudably, perhaps) have

shunned the opportunity to deploy Lasix.

One who might be of mild interest if getting an unpestered lead is Catch A Glimpse. Mark Casse’s

three-year-old won the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf last season and was a big player in this race until

unexpectedly fluffing her lines last time out. That was her first run for two months and, though she

was fit for that, her trainer feels it was too bad to be true. I tend to agree.

She is drawn two and will certainly bid to make all.

Main Contenders: Lady Eli, Seventh Heaven

Other Possibles: Sea Calisi, Catch A Glimpse

Filly and Mare Turf Selection: It’s a tricky race, this, as I’ve said. If Seventh Heaven gets a clean trip, a comment which applies to

most of the field, she has a great chance, and 3/1 is fair enough.


One that will definitely get a clean trip is Catch A Glimpse, the 25/1 Paddy offer being a ridiculous

over-reaction on a filly that has won eight of eleven in her career, seven of them in Graded

company.

And Sea Calisi is also attractive at 12/1 with the same firm. Lady Eli has an obvious chance, too. But

we can’t back them all, so I’m siding with Ballydoyle and that big price.

1 pt win SEVENTH HEAVEN 3/1 general

½ pt e/w CATCH A GLIMPSE 25/1 PP


8.21pm GMT Breeders Cup Sprint (6f, Dirt)

Key Trends (32 renewals to date) Last 22 winners had at least 50% 1-2 strike rate at 6f

29/32 won a G1-3 that season

1+ 6f wins AND ran sharp 7f last 12 months a solid recent angle

17 of the last 23 had 2+ 6f wins that season

11 of the last 18 winners were 50%+ lifetime winners

26/32 had 5+ seasonal races (4/6 exceptions were trained by Bob Baffert)

17 of last 22 winners showed a bullet workout

Look to prominent racers at Santa Anita

Highest average exacta payoff of ALL BC races (almost 2x next in line)

Highest average win payoff of ALL BC races

Bob Baffert is the King of the Layoff/lightly raced runners (see ‘Bob’ below)

How the runners fit

Pace:

As you might expect, early speed is in vogue in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Each of Masochistic,

Drefong, and Delta Bluesman have led in three of their last four races, and Noholdingback Bear is

another pace setter.

The likes of Lord Nelson (now a non-runner) and A. P. Indian are expected to rate behind some

sizzling early fractions and could have most left to give in the stretch.

Key Trials: The key trial videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-sprint-video-

form-guide/

Summary: This race has lost some of its interest with the defection of Lord Nelson due to an infected cut on his

leg. That’s a real shame, not least because I had him in a juicy double with Dortmund! But enough of

my woes and on with the show.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-sprint-video-form-guide/

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-sprint-video-form-guide/


AP Indian, which I also have doubled with Dortmund, comes here on a six race unbeaten streak

through 2016. The first of those was when awarded a race in the stewards’ room, but the last three

have been in Grade 1 (two wins) and 2 company.

He was all out to beat Limousine Liberal last time, but had been much more impressive in

despatching of the same rival previously. The Indian is five from seven at six furlongs and has the

stamina to go seven, as well as the speed to win G1’s at six. He is a definite player, especially as he

seems tactically versatile.

There should be a bundle of pace on, led chiefly by Drefong, Delta Bluesman and Masochistic.

Drefong is the least exposed in the field with just five races to his name. The four since his debut

have all been victories, culminating in a three length score in the seven furlong King’s Bishop Stakes

(G1). His best speed figures are a few points behind AP Indian but he does have more upside

potential, if he is not compromised by a speed duel.

Masochistic is quick. Very lightly raced in 2016, with just two starts, he has been untroubled to win

both. Closer inspection reveals that he beat a miler and a no hoper in a three runner Grade 2 last

time; and beat a soft optional allowance claiming field the time before. In other words, he’s had it all

his own way and has looked good in the process.

It won’t be smooth sailing this time, given the other two early speedsters are drawn inside him. He’s

not raced over six furlongs this year and not faced anything of note. As such, I’m happy to let him

beat me if he can at about 3/1.

Delta Bluesman is the polar opposite of Drefong: 45 career starts compared with five. He is what he

is, and what he is is a pretty good sprinter with a predilection for the lead. He’s been first past the

post in five of his last six races but has come unstuck when facing top class. He is important in this

field, though, because he could be the ‘spoiler’ in the pace battle, potentially compromising either or

both of Drefong and Masochistic.

A literal interpretation of Limousine Liberal’s nose defeat to AP Indian last time puts him in the mix

for a place, but I can’t help but feel he was flattered there in a race where I don’t want to bet each

way.

I’m unexcited by the chances of Noholdingback Bear and Mind Your Biscuits.

Main Contenders: AP Indian, Drefong

Other Possibles: Masochistic

Sprint Selection: This looks fairly clear-cut to me. While I can see Drefong improving again to win, I want to be with

the win machine, AP Indian. He’s bidding for a seventh straight score in 2016, looks likely to be

favoured by sitting just off some very fast fractions, and has abundant stamina to grind it out from

the home turn.


The Indian is not a sexy price – 2/1 top – and he may be available at bigger on the day, due to home

support for Drefong and Masochistic. But if you can get 5/2 or better, he’ll be good value.

Limousine Liberal might pick up some pieces and make the frame but, as I’ve said, it’ll be win only

for this punter.

1 pt win A.P. INDIAN 2/1 (but maybe wait to see what price he is on the day)


9.05pm GMT Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (6 ½f, Turf)

Key Trends (8 renewals so far) Age 3-1; 4-3; 5-3; 6-1 (all largely in line with representation)

Last 7 of 8 winners were top 3 or within 3L of the winner last time out

7/8 were already distance winners (check for specific 6.5f distance form)

100+ Beyer = strong contender

7/8 had 4+ starts in year

7/8 had a 28+ day layoff

All 8 placed in Graded Stakes (4/8 WON Graded Stakes)

How the runners fit

Pace:

A tremendous spectacle but a punting nightmare. Obviously looks a solid pace angle early, with Pure

Sensation and Home Of The Brave, and perhaps Lady Shipman (if she sneaks a run), following him,

but in truth this is a race where luck in running and a conservative trip down the hill, concluded by a

slingshot drive off the turn will decide the winner.

Key Trials: The key trial videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-turf-sprint-video-

form-guide/

Summary: A crazy race run at a crazy pace. This is fun to bet in but not banker material by any stretch of the

imagination. The UK market bears little resemblance to the US morning line, suggesting there may

be some value in the American speedsters.

Washington DC, as short as 9/2 in Britain, is considered a 12/1 chance here at Santa Anita. He has a

chance, but so too do ten and more of his rivals. The form of his Commonwealth Cup third or

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-turf-sprint-video-form-guide/

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-turf-sprint-video-form-guide/


Abbaye second is the best in the race, albeit over shorter trips. He has won over seven panels but

only in lesser heats. Far from a shock winner, he’s just rank poor value.

Pure Sensation tries this extremely quirky downhill strip – they dogleg right before turning left into

the short stretch run – for the first time in his bid for a four-timer. He’s never won beyond six

furlongs and he has the worst of the draw in stall one (a high draw is favoured on this track). He’s

not for me, as you’ll have gathered.

The morning line jolly here is A Lot, a horse turning back from a mile and a rock solid effort, finishing

second in a Grade 1. The ‘class turn back’ angle found Bobby’s Kitten here in 2014, and A Lot has a

lot going for him, including a kind draw in nine.

Another class turn back entry is the optimally-berthed Celestine. She breaks from 14, having won a

mile Grade 1 two starts back before running third to Photo Call and Tepin in the First Lady Stakes.

What price would Tepin be in here? That makes Celestine of clear interest.

Obviously has a similar, if less compelling, profile. He’s a trailblazer over a mile who might just have

the toe to lead over this extended six. He’s drawn poorly in two however and will have to clear

traffic to get a favoured position.

Om is similarly a miler turning back, but unlike Obviously he has trap twelve to aid his effort. Half

length seconds in a pair of Grade 2’s over a mile confirm both his talent, and that 20/1 is too big.

Both Karar, second in the seven furlong Foret last time, and Home Of The Brave, second in the Group

2 Hungerford on his prior start, would have been of mild interest had they not lucked out in the stall

position stakes, respectively clutching the five and four boxes.

The other angle in this race is local knowledge, specifically course form. The two multiple winners

down the Oak Tree at Santa Anita strip, as it is known, Ambitious Brew and Holy Lute. Both have

fared well in the draw – catching ten and thirteen respectively – and both will be shorter on the local

‘nanny goat’ than in the British books.

The similarities don’t end there, either. A key trial for this, the Eddie D Stakes run over course and

distance, was run in two divisions this year. Can you guess who won those two divisions? Yup,

Ambitious Brew and Holy Lute. The times were very similar as well.

The one difference is that Holy Lute won in spite of a low draw whereas the Brew was nine of ten

and had a perfect trip. I’ve already backed Ambitious Brew – for too much, truth be told – and I want

a piece of the Lute at 16’s.

One more deserving of a mention is the lovable Mongolian Saturday, the reigning BC Turf Sprint

champ and a beast that runs senza Lasix. His win last year was over five and half furlongs on soft

turf. This could not be more different, and he has not been in particularly good form this season,

having travelled the world unsuccessfully prior to a Grade 3 score in Keeneland last time. It doesn’t

look like being another Mongolian Saturday to me.


Main Contenders: Washington DC, Ambitious Brew, Celestine, Holy Lute

Other Possibles: Om, A Lot, Obviously

Turf Sprint Selection: The contender lists are long because this is wide open. Washington DC is overlooked on price

grounds rather than ability. He can win but he’s ever so short. I’d imagine you’ll get 8/1 on the tote

here, which is more playable.

The two course specialists, Ambitious Brew and Holy Lute, are both backable at 14’s and 16’s; and

Celestine is a very interesting runner.

Om, A Lot, and Obviously – the last of which who has a win over track and trip – complete the

possibles roster.

½ pt e/w HOLY LUTE 16/1 PP, Betfair

½ pt e/w CELESTINE 10/1 general

½ pt e/w AMBITIOUS BREW 14/1 PP, Hills, Betfair


9.43pm GMT Breeders Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt)

Key Trends (32 renewals so far) All non-stakes winners to win BC Juvenile were 20/1+

30/32 ran 123 or within 4L of the winner last time out

Look for solid workouts, esp off a longer (35+ day) layoff

15 of the last 23 winners posted a new Beyer top LTO

14 of last 20 winners improved their Beyer racing at 7f+ for the first time

Uncoupled entries won in 2010, 2013 and 2015

5/6 SA Juv DIRT winners were based in SoCal

How the runners fit

Pace:

Crikey, this could be quick in the early go. Gormley and Syndergaard look out-and-out speedballs set

to run as fast as they can for as long as they can, with Three Rules expected to be on their tails. Very

difficult to say whether the speed can last out, and much will depend on how hellbent the jockeys on

the aforementioned pair are for the lead.

Key Trials: The key trial videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-juvenile-video-

form-guide/

Summary: The most open looking Juvenile I can remember, though it may look less so after the event with so

many form lines converging.

Gormley is favoured, just, at 9/2. He’s unbeaten in two, the more recent of which was an all the way

success in the Grade 1 Front Runner Stakes over course and distance. He looked very classy that day

but benefited from the run of the race.

With Syndergaard and perhaps Three Rules taking him on in the opening stanza, Gormley will need

to reveal hitherto unrequested grit to prevail for a third race in succession.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-juvenile-video-form-guide/

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-juvenile-video-form-guide/


Syndergaard is one of a trio priced at 13/2. He hung very tough when just going down by a nose to

Practical Joke in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes over a mile last time. Despite his tenacity in defeat

the extra half furlong may not be ideal, and nor will the expected early pace battle. So, likeable

though he is, I’m not inclined to wager.

Not This Time ran away with the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last time, on a muddy track. That can flatter

some horses and insult others. In Not This Time’s case he was backing up a ten length maiden win so

obviously has ability. This is a big class increment and he too is short enough in that context.

Classic Empire rounds out the three co-second favourites. A New Yorker, he unseated rider in the G1

Hopeful Stakes before comfortably scoring in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at the Juvenile distance.

Stamina is not in question, then, and neither is run style. He tends to sit handy but off the speed, an

approach which looks tailor made for this company. He’s a runner, for sure.

Practical Joke was the colt to wear down Syndergaard, making heavy weather of it after moving

much the best at the top of the lane. But he did get it done, in Grade 1 company, something he also

achieved – in similar fashion – on his prior start in the Champagne Stakes. The extra trip should be in

his favour and he has been steadily progressive from run to run. He ought to be thereabouts again.

This is a deep race with punting options aplenty. Next in are Klimt and Three Rules. The former

looked very good when winning the G1 Del Mar Futurity over seven, but was given too much to do

next time, running up to Gormley in the G1 Front Runner over this track and trip. It would be unwise

to think he was unlucky not to win though. He wasn’t, Gormley was much the best that day.

That said, this race sets up better for Klimt than for Gormley, and he might turn the tables.

Theory has won both his starts, the second of which was the G3 Belmont Futurity over six furlongs.

He was scrubbed along there, as the 1/5 favourite, but was never travelling better than from the

sixteenth pole; he will love the step up in trip and looks the big improver.

And then there’s Three Rules, a Floridian who has won all five races to date by an aggregate 31

lengths. He notched a couple of big speed figures in that run, and some of his performances look

exceptional. The big question, of course, is what has he beaten? The answer is not much.

But the manner of his victories reminds me of Awesome Feather. She too racked up five huge wins

in Florida before rocking up in the Juvenile Fillies of 2010. She blitzed them again there, and Three

Rules might do likewise.

You can watch his most recent effort, a ten length win in an ungraded stakes race, here:

https://youtu.be/7a8dNx2jGqU

And still there’s one more. Lookin At Lee is a 40/1 poke in a place but he’s run second, from

absolutely miles back, twice in a row. The latest was in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity, where he closed

eye-catchingly on Classic Empire, only a 13/2 chance here.

As the possibility of a pace collapse looks genuine, a deep closer like Lookin At Lee could still be

running when plenty of more fancied beasts have cried enough. He is a very playable price.

https://youtu.be/7a8dNx2jGqU


Main Contenders: Most of them

Other Possibles: Some more of them

Juvenile Selection: This is arguably the most open race of the entire meeting and, as such, taking a short price doesn’t

seem a good option.

Many potential winners are overlooked on that value basis, so I’m happy to buy two small slices of

Theory and Lookin At Lee.

The former has run fast despite looking completely outpaced in his two sprint races to date. A mile

and a teeny should be much more to his liking in the hat-trick bid.

The latter should not be 40/1 on the evidence of his most recent run. If he can stay within hailing

distance of the leaders through the first half mile, he has a decent chance of making the frame. And,

who knows, maybe even snatching the whole enchilada.

½ pt e/w THEORY 10/1 general (11/1 Betway)

¼ pt e/w LOOKIN AT LEE 33/1 general (40/1 sportingbet)


10.22pm GMT Breeders Cup Turf (1m4f, Turf)

Key Trends (32 renewals to date) 21/22 winners to have raced at the distance had been at least 2nd (Found '15 the exception)

Layoff: US 35 days or less; Euro any

Seasonal starts: 6-9; 4 or 5-6; 3-5 (2-1; 7 or more-2)

32/32 aged 3-5yo; 6yo+ 0/46

Euro 3yo's 7; US 3yo's 2

25/32 won G1 that season (6/7 exceptions were Euro, & averaged 12.75/1)

10/18 Euro winners last ran in the Arc (not often the 'obvious' one)

Arc winners are 0/5 in same season (including Golden Horn, odds on in 2015)

8 US winners ran in Joe Hirsch, six of them winning

How the runners fit

Pace:

A big field this year, and quite possibly a tactical affair with no clear front runner in the field.

Highland Reel could take them along, something he’s done with great success in some massive

contests – notably the King George – this season. Ectot could be near the fore, too, with Flintshire

and company potentially in the lap of the gods in what may very well be a packing field turning in. It

could be hide behind the sofa stuff if you’re all in…

Key Trials: The key trial videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-turf-video-form-

guide-flintshire-highland-reel/

Summary: Regular readers will know of my disaffection for this race, borne out of multiple costly reversals,

usually at the hands of the ‘wrong Euro’.

Last year, when Golden Horn was sunk by Found, was just the most recent of a catalogue of

cataclysmic calamities in the good ol’ Cup Turf. It’s a bugger of a race.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-turf-video-form-guide-flintshire-highland-reel/

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-turf-video-form-guide-flintshire-highland-reel/


So here’s how I see it. I like Flintshire. A lot. That means he’ll get beaten because that is how it has to

be in the Turf. But, just for kicks, here’s why I like him.

He was second in this race two years ago when trained by Andre Fabre. You already know that I

backed him, for plenty. Since then has transferred to Chad Brown, the best turf trainer in America,

and he’s racked up a trio of wins from four starts, two in Grade 1 events. He was beaten last time,

predictably despite odds of 1/5.

In fact, I tweeted at the time…

Sure enough, he got beaten. Sure enough, his odds expanded, to 4/1. I got stuck in.

Brown subsequently revealed he only ran him to avoid training him right up to the race. He is now

back in to 5/2, having been 7/4 before Found changed planes.

Originally not in Coolmore’s Breeders’ Cup plans, she was a late entry for the Classic, her stated first

preference. But, almost as though they knew, ‘the lads’ diverted her here to defend her title. She’ll

beat Flintshire into second, most likely. At least, that’s how Sod’s Law sees it.

In terms of form, she has the most amazing record, which this year includes wins in the

Mooresbridge Stakes and the Arc, as well as no fewer than six second place finishes. She has had a

long hard season, running nine times, and has now flown all the way across to the West Coast for

her third run in a month and her fifth in 79 days.

I wrote her off on largely that basis last year, and she went and won. In my opinion this is a stronger

renewal, and my head doesn’t think she’ll win.

More of a danger might be stablemate, Highland Reel, who was second in the Arc. He was also the

winner of the King George at Ascot, and the Hong Kong Vase in December last year. He goes well

from the front and might get the run of the race in a contest where there is no obvious trailblazer.

If he does control the pace, they will be stacked up in behind making hard luck stories more

probable than possible. That’s another way Flintshire might be sunk in a relatively big field of

thirteen.

Sir Michael Stoute runs talking horse, Ulysses. He unexposed – just six career starts – and was

fancied as a Derby contender earlier in the season. Indeed, he was sent off at just 8/1 for that Epsom

mission, but failed to land a blow. Since then he’s finished first and second in a pair of G3’s. That

clearly doesn’t match the Arc and US Grade 1 form of some of his rivals, but he does have plenty of

scope to step forward. Odds of 12/1 are skinny enough, however.


The horse that beat Flintshire last time is Ectot, and the one thing I am certain of is that he will not

beat Flintshire this time. Firm ground is fine for Ectot, but so is soft ground. He ran his race in the

Turf Classic, whereas Flintshire unequivocally did not. Ectot’s best is not nearly good enough to beat

Flintshire’s.

Mondialiste opts for this rather than the Mile, a curious decision considering he’s never raced

beyond ten furlongs. He does seem to have a more robust constitution for the application of Lasix,

and if he stays he’s a nice price at 25/1. But, again, can he really live with those genuine Group 1

horses over twelve furlongs? I don’t want to buy a ticket to find out. Too expensive, even at 25’s.

Money Multiplier is another horse with a propensity for finishing second. That is a position he’s

occupied in six of his 14 lifetime starts, and three of six this term. But that trio of 2016 silvers was

achieved exclusively at G1 level, which makes him a podium possible at a big price.

Da Big Hoss, by contrast, comes here on a five-timer. However, his four victories have all been

achieved in lesser stakes company and in slower times. He looks out of his depth. Similar comments

apply to Ashleyluvssugar, who bids to extend a two race sequence recorded in Grade 2’s.

No thanks to the rest.

Main Contenders: Flintshire, Highland Reel

Other Possibles: Found

Turf Selection: I have backed Flintshire. I think he has a rock solid chance to become the first horse aged six or

above to win the Turf, and I will win a pretty penny if he does.

My historical hoodoo in the race, however, means you’d probably be foolish to follow me in, even

though his price on the day ought to be slightly shorter than the current 5/2 (11/4 Betway if you can

get on with them).

Found deserves enormous respect for her exploits over the past two seasons, and she’s an incredibly

consistent top class mare. But surely this is a bridge too far. Surely!

Highland Reel is a slightly fresher horse, and the pace – or lack of it – in the race could play into his

hands. He has real class, and I think he’s the biggest danger.

Of the rest, there will be worse each way bets over the weekend than Money Multiplier, and Ulysses

would not be a shock winner if living up to the murmurings.

2 pts win FLINTSHIRE 5/2 general

¼ pt e/w MONEY MULTIPLIER 40/1 Coral, Hills


11.01pm GMT Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f, Dirt)

Key Trends (9 renewals so far) Age: 4-5; 5-3; 6-1 (3yo's 0 from 25 to date)

All 9 finished in the top 3, or within 3L of the winner, last time

7/9 won at 7f; 4/9 2+ wins at 7f

8/9 won or were 2nd in a G1

TCA at Keeneland is a key prep (albeit over 6f)

Humana Distaff also key (4 winners, 3 won that too - Taris won this year)

How the runners fit

Pace

Gloryzapper has led in each of her last four races, and she will again bid for early primacy. But with

Carina Mia and Paola Queen in the field, that’s not a given. It looks like it’ll be quick, though, and the

best lady should win.

Key Trials: The key trial videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-filly-mare-sprint-

video-form-guide-2/

Summary: Sandwiched between the Turf and the Mile at the classy end of the card is a curious slot for the Filly

and Mare Sprint. Unlike the Sprint, which is contested over six furlongs, the range here is a furlong

further.

A great place to start is with 3yo, Carina Mia. She is the favourite even though her age group are 0

from 25 in this race to date. That sequence includes some well fancied fillies, and is a definite knock.

On the plus side, she has some good placed form in recent starts, though she was beaten into third

in her sole attempt against older girls, in the G1 Ballerina.

As if that wasn’t enough, this wannabe pace setter has the speed of the race directly inside her, a

minor inconvenience at worst.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-filly-mare-sprint-video-form-guide-2/

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-filly-mare-sprint-video-form-guide-2/


The two to beat her there were Haveyougoneaway and By The Moon, both of whom cross swords

again. Carina Mia had first run, a clean trip, and every chance: she was simply not good enough, and

I think she’s a terrible price.

Haveyougoneaway made up most ground there and comes out of the race with the most credit. She

is the market second choice, a price of 9/2 being fair enough. She has won her last three, steadily

progressing on the clock. That most recent run was her first try at seven furlongs and her first in

Grade 1 company: she certainly appreciated it and could be unexposed at the trip. I like her.

By The Moon was close to the front two and won her previous start, beating reigning champ, Wavell

Avenue, into second. That race set up well for the winner who was close to the lead off steady

fractions, but she did it well all the same.

Wavell Avenue has not done an awful lot since winning this race last year. But she has been racing in

better company than most of her rivals and looks certain to get the fast pace she craves. Chad

Brown’s first Breeders’ Cup dirt track winner has a bit of a chance of a return to form and a second

dirt BC victory.

Tara’s Tango has been running at all sorts of trips, but not seven furlongs, the specialist distance

over which this race is run. Her times are not especially quick, but she was good enough to win a

Grade 1 over a mile and an eighth. That doesn’t suggest to me that she has the speed for this

assignment, though the faster they go the more her stamina will be called upon.

I quite like Irish Jasper, who may be better than her bare form. She recorded a very good speed

figure in an ungraded race before winning the TCA Stakes, a key prep for this, in a more modest

time. Still, she had solid sprinters like Stonetastic in her wake and comes here on a hat-trick.

Main Contenders: Haveyougoneaway, Wavell Avenue, By The Moon

Other Possibles: Irish Jasper

Filly and Mare Sprint Selection: This is wide open. But, that said, Haveyougoneaway looks nicely progressive and is a fair price at 9/2

(compared with a 3/1 morning line tag). She has an inside draw and an unhurried run style, and I

want her on my ticket.

Wavell Avenue is another who will be played late. She’s not been in the same form this year but

remains a tempting wagering proposition. I’m going to watch the tote board with her and will have a

play if she goes to 15/1 or bigger.

By The Moon looks a pretty solid each way proposition. She doesn’t win as often as some of these –

four from twelve lifetime – but she is highly consistent in the best company, as a G1 record of

218232 attests.

1 pt win HAVEYOUGONEAWAY 9/2 general

½ pt e/w BY THE MOON 9/1 PP, Betfair


11.40pm GMT Breeders Cup Mile (1m, Turf)

Key Trends (32 renewals to date) The last 14 winners had 4-6 seasonal starts

13/14 winners since 2002 had 2+ mile turf wins (exception, Karakontie 2014)

Repeat winners common (Miesque, Lure, Da Hoss, Goldikova, Wise Dan)

13 of the last 20 were US winners; other 7 all French-trained (UK/Ire 0 for 52 since 1995)

6/9 3yo winners were Euros; 9/10 5+yo winners were US (exc Goldi #3)

Euro G1 win important, US any Graded win

20 of the last 22 ran 123 last time, or finished within 4L of the winner

Career record at 1m of BC Mile winners since 2002: Runs 118, 1st 69 (58%), 2nd 28 (24%)

Thus, the last 14 BC Mile winners had a collective 82% 1-2 record at the distance

No front runner has been 1st or 2nd since 2000

How the runners fit

Pace:

Midnight Storm and Photo Call, if both adopting their usual tactics, should have this field well strung

out by halfway. Limato will be well served to rein back off the speed, and the likes of Tepin, Ironicus,

Miss Temple City and Spectre will be clambering all over each other for a run as they straighten for

the jam stick.

Key Trials: The key trial videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-mile-video-form-

guide/

Summary: The Mile is a super competitive race where luck will play almost as big a role as ability. It is also a

race where Britain and Ireland have a collective losing streak of 52 runners, going all the way back to

Ridgewood Pearl in 1995.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-mile-video-form-guide/

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-mile-video-form-guide/


During that time, France has enjoyed seven wins and North America 13. The obvious starting point is

with last year’s winner, Tepin, who travelled to Royal Ascot this summer and won the G1 Queen

Anne Stakes. That effort was meritorious for several reasons.

First, she disliked the soft ground. Second, she was running without Lasix for the very first time. And

third, she couldn’t wear her nasal strips. It didn’t matter. She won and she won well, beating Belardo

and Lightning Spear.

That away win formed part of an eight race victory sequence undone only by the sleepy jockeyship

of Julien Leparoux last time where she was given ten lengths to make up on easy leader, Photo Call.

She made up more than seven of them, and put three and a half more back to the third, in noble

defeat.

That defeat has been somewhat overstated in my opinion, which means that she is a marginally

better price than she should be, at 3/1.

This is a filly who, a bit like Found, has not been out of the first two much in her career – and not at

all in her last 14. Unlike Found, however, Tepin has won 11 of those races, six of them at Group or

Grade 1 level. She’s the real deal and, while she’s been on the go a long time this year, she doesn’t

look to be ‘over the top’ for the season.

The betting suggests her main rival is Henry Candy’s Limato, a 7/2 chance generally. The four-year-

old gelding is likely to be seen plenty in the coming years as a result of his absent testicles, which is

great news for track fans. He’s been in tremendous form this season, winning both the July Cup and

the Prix de la Foret.

But those races were over six and seven furlongs respectively, and there has to be a doubt about

him getting the mile here. On his only previous attempt he ran a close fourth in the Lockinge so, in

fairness, he will probably see out the trip.

Whether he will get the run of things, especially under relatively inexperienced jockey, Harry

Bentley, I’m not so sure. That’s not to discredit Bentley, but rather to emphasise that in my opinion

there is more risk to this investment than a return of 7/2 implies. On that basis, Limato is not for me,

though he certainly has the talent to win.

Aidan O’Brien’s Alice Springs also runs here, off the back of a very busy campaign. This will be her

ninth race of the year, having already picked up three victories, all of them in Group 1 company and

all in her last four starts. She is a progressive filly.

Ironicus is probably the second best of the home team. He is a very consistent sort – not out of the

first three on turf in 13 tries, including six wins and six second places – with consistent speed figures.

His best number, 106, has been recorded three times in his last five starts, with a 105 in that quintet

too. Compare that with Tepin’s brace of 107’s earlier in the season and it becomes clear that he is a

player.

Ironicus is usually played late, and Jose Ortiz will be in the same boat as many angling for a lucky run.


Meanwhile, on the front end, Photo Call and Midnight Storm will be carving out the fractions. The

former was able to break Tepin’s unbeaten streak when left alone in the lead in the First Lady last

time, but she will be pestered here.

Midnight Storm, her expected agitant, arrives on a three-match win streak himself, including when

achieving a 110 in the G1 Shoemaker Mile. He is less consistent than some in this field, but his A

game puts him in the picture.

Markus Munch runs Spectre, a filly good enough to be second in the Prix du Moulin last time. But

that G1 effort was two months ago, and she has not been training especially well here. Moreover,

Munch has suggested she’d prefer some rain, and there is zero chance of that between now and

Saturday.

Exiled English trainer, Graham Motion, saddles Miss Temple City. She has run a couple of solid races

in defeat in Blighty – fourth in both the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot 2015 and the Duke Of

Cambridge Stakes at the same meeting this year. That pegs her level of ability in comparison with

the best of the European fillies, and she was lucky to beat Ironicus, the victim of a misjudged ride, in

the Shadwell Turf Mile last time.

Actually, although the tape is on the Key Trials page, you really need to see this to believe how much

late ground Ironicus makes up: https://youtu.be/SZaGCfUVX-A

It’s a very wide open race, and it should be a cracker.

Main Contenders: Tepin, Limato, Alice Springs, Ironicus

Other Possibles: Photo Call

Mile Selection: I think there is a dribble of value about Tepin’s chance, and I definitely want at least a piece of

saveron her. Alice Springs rates a danger and could easily win, but I think the value play is probably

Ironicus each way. He has a turbo finish, will probably be delivered away from the infield

scrimmaging, and will offer a very exciting run for the rupees if engaging that burner in time.

½ pt e/w IRONICUS 10/1 general

½ pt win TEPIN 3/1 Skybet

https://youtu.be/SZaGCfUVX-A


12.35am GMT Breeders Cup Classic (1m2f, Dirt)

Key Trends (32 renewals so far) All of the last 15 Classic winners had 3-8 runs that season

31/32 ran 1-2-3 LTO (18 x 1st; 8 x 2nd; 5 x 3rd)

28/32 won a G1 that season

32/32 aged 3-5 (6yo+ 0/31)

18 of last 27 posted stamina (6f+) workout since last run

8/9 40+ day layoffs posted Bullet AND/OR Stamina works since last run

9/11 3yo winners ran in at least one Triple Crown race (1 exception was a Euro)

19 of the last 21 posted 100+ Beyer last time but below previous best

How the runners fit

Pace

This could be the most fascinating speed duel of the night, with a war of attrition between California

Chrome and Arrogate far from impossible. Both generally lead in their races, but so too does

Melatonin. In such circumstances, if you’re in a punting hole by now, it might be worth a small Hail

Mary each way. Arrogate has been done no favours by being handed the widest draw of all in stall

ten.

Key Trials: The key trial videos can be found at http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-classic-video-

form-guide-california-chrome/

Summary: For a long time, it looked like the Classic would be every bit as processional as when American

Pharoah strolled clear of his field in the race last year. California Chrome is the heir apparent this

time, but his ascension to the Breeders’ Cup throne could now be undone by a horse, Arrogate, that

could be a prince or a (relative) pauper.

The case for Chrome is highly credible. Only beaten a nose and a neck in the messy 2014 Classic, he

missed most of last year after running second in the Dubai World Cup. But 2016 has seen the

unfashionably-bred son of Lucky Pulpit don a cloak of invincibility in rattling off a six-win sequence

that includes going one better in the Dubai World Cup, and back-to-back Grade 1 victories in the

Pacific Classic and Awesome Again Stakes in his most recent starts.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-classic-video-form-guide-california-chrome/

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/breeders-cup-2016-classic-video-form-guide-california-chrome/


So far so very good. But this is a level above those contests, with a pair of challenges to his unbeaten

season. The first is the way the race sets up: although Cal Chrome doesn’t need to lead, he does love

to lead. The last time he was beaten for early speed – by Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap – he

only just got up in a ding-dong battle. Importantly, however, he got the job done.

In other recent outings, such the San Pasqual at Santa Anita and the Dubai centrepiece, he has again

got it done when not on the early lead. And yet I retain a reservation about whether he’s at his very

best when taken on from the gate.

Here, Melatonin, and perhaps Arrogate, will be busy from the get-go, as well as Chrome. How much

energy Art Sherman’s horse can preserve will determine whether he prevails.

The second challenge comes from the new kid on the block, Arrogate. Trained by Bob Baffert, who is

bidding for a third Classic in succession after wins by Bayern and American Pharoah, has pulled a

rabbit out of the hat in the form of the three-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song.

Beaten by greenness on his debut – missed the break, lugged in behind, flew when he got the gap –

he has not allowed a horse to finish in front of him since. In fact, on his most recent outing, his first

in Grade 1 company, he scorched away by FIFTEEN lengths!

That was a spectacular effort and many over here don’t believe he can repeat that level of

performance. The truth is that he doesn’t need to, quite, but he will need to be close to it. A draw in

stall ten looks less than perfect, though his jockey, Mike Smith, claimed “the ten [stall] is actually a

good spot”.

I’ve watched all five of his races and I can tell you that this boy is freakishly fast so while talk of him

being a dirt Frankel are over-played at this stage, he might just be considered in that stratospheric

company if he can hand CC his hindquarters on a plate.

Arrogate hasn’t raced for 70 days, but his works have been exceptional. Bullet (i.e. best of the day)

works have been the norm, and he’s put in some stamina drills as well. Baffert is king of the layoffs,

and I’m seriously excited to watch this race. It should be a cracker.

The third choice in the market is Frosted, himself an incredible winner of the Met Mile at Saratoga

earlier in the year. But there’s a clue in there about his big issue, the trip. This is a quarter of a mile

further, a range over which Frosted has failed to win at or beyond in five attempts. Against hard core

athletes like Chrome and Arrogate, any stamina deficiency will be ruthlessly exposed, and this is not

going to be a bimbling early pace where Godolphin’s colt might get away with it.

This looks between the first two in the market, but there is a scenario – fairly remote, granted –

whereby those two engage in a battle for the lead, perhaps joined by Melatonin, which scuppers all

of their chances. Sweetening the remoteness of that prospective outcome is the fact that three

places are available for each way players, allied to the presence of a couple of an interesting closer.

Hoppertunity is his name and, though no sane horse player would suggest he has anything like the

ability of the market leaders, he could just get the race falling into his lap. He’s danced big dances

exclusively in 2016, running third in the G1 Dubai World Cup, fourth in both the G1 Gold Cup and the

G1 Pacific Classic, before winning the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.


He is a late runner for whom the more attritional the battle the bigger his chance. If the pace sears

then collapses, Bob Baffert’s other runner might just Hop’ to it and pick up the pieces.

And, if you’re after an Arcangues-esque wager (the horse that won the Classic at 133/1), Win The

Space could be that. He is a deep closer with a smidge of class. He’s very likely over-faced in this, but

his best career run was when second in the G1 Gold Cup over this course and distance earlier in the

year. The faster they go, the more chance he has of making the frame. At 100/1.

Main Contenders: California Chrome, Arrogate

Other Possibles: None

Classic Selection: There is every chance that this will be won by either Cal Chrome or Arrogate and, at the prices

(10/11 vs 11/4), I’m taking the upside potential of the latter to beat the established consistency of

the former.

I don’t think Frosted will stay, though if he does and he can replicate his Met Mile effort, he’ll be

thereabouts. Too many ifs for a single digit price for me.

The speculators, and those in a hole by now, might want to play Hoppertunity and/or Win The Space

from their prayer mats. Both will be running late, and both will benefit from any over-exertions pace

wise from the principals.

2 pts win ARROGATE 11/4 general

1/5th pt e/w HOPPERTUNITY 28/1 SJ (33/1 Betway)

1/10th pt e/w WIN THE SPACE 100/1 general

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