brave new world - ifsf.org · brave new world mike ryan, futurist fusion futures limited...
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brave new worldmike ryan, futurist
fusion futures limited @mikemanchester
what do I do?
enable clients to understand their future and make betterdecisions enabling them todrive forwards with confidence.
the menu today
• societal drivers
• technology drivers
•work and future jobs
societal drivers
no more secrets
spying§
spying
hacking
world starting to close up
1 in 113 of the global population displaced*
*UN HCR report 2015
technology drivers
more and more data
Since 2010, 5 companies are engaged in a tech race spending billions on R&D each year.
the technology race 2010-
1961-1969
the technology race 2010-
Space Race: 1961 - 1969: $40 billion
Tech Race 2010 - 2015: $100 billion a year
Saudi Arabia’s $ 2 trillion oil fund diversifying
Maintenence
digital trade mirrors physical trade
five key tech drivers going to change life by 2030
1. artificial intelligence
voice the new interface
2. augmented reality
connected wearable devicesdigital contact lenses available by 2020
3. nano level innovation
3D printing mass disruption
super materials4. smart materials
graphene as important as steel
graphene light bulb
5. robotics and ultra automation
work and future jobs
typesetter
bone crusher
typist
lift operatorice cutter
cobbler
fax operator
quartermaster
travel agent
telegraph operator
canal operator switchboard operator
map maker
road sweeper
redundant jobs since 1900
call centre operators
reporters
locksmithsmany retail workers
bank counter staff
tour guideszoologists
butchers
cleaners
postmenmany soldiers
builders
car assemblers
power workers
librarians
at risk jobs by 2030
railway staff
taxi drivers
delivery drivers
pilots
insurance staff
traffic police / wardens
GPs
driving instructors
many admin staff
a smart machine age: machines will compete for work with humans
effect on logistics leaving empty warehouses
scenario building: driverless cars and the future future scenarios: driverless cars
2016 -2020
stage 1: a new feature gets introduced - autopilot
stage 2: luxury cars sold on driverless freedom
2020-2025
2025 onwards
stage 3: end of steering wheels and personal car ownership
nearly all private cars are used just 5% of the time
the facts
2030s could the UK roads be like Cuba?
good news
accidents will reduce to 1:10,000 and 90% less casualties
UK accidents cost£34.8 billion a year*
*2015 Dept/ Transport Figure
good news
or is this a traffic intersection
in an autonomous
vehicle future?
14.6% of UK employment inthe motor industry and driving jobs*
*ONS sector breakdown 2015
342,000 work in the car insurance industry in the UK.*nearly as many work in thecar finance market as well.
bad news
a £64 billion industry completely altered in a decade
professional freelancers
world of freelancers the gig economy
low skilled roles replaced by automation and machines
highly skilled roles replaced by AI and machine learning
the future will be a harder place to find work
for 4 jobs lost now only 1 will be createdin the future
WEF, Davos forecast, 2016
the long tail give niche opportunity
low competition
high competition
highautomation
human intensivebusiness
the long tail will still provide opportunity for human workers
live, work and eat local: communities in cities
human based customer service will need to be perfect
be careful of upsetting customers who are social reviewers
what will workin the future?
location, location, location
how could you engage with the sharing economy?
find the right new partners
ying when other businesses yang
use automation to help not hinder the customer
thank you please stay in touch
mike ryan, futurist fusion futures
mikemanchester