A Driverless Future?Challenges & OpportunitiesTPS – Dublin City Council Wood Quay

February 7th 2017John Holland

Contents

Threefold Services Driverless Cars – Key BenifitsLevels of AutonomyNew Technology Adoption Levels of Autonomy over timeAutonomous – Key Challenges 100’s of Autonomous trials globally National Movers & shakers Action really is needed nowSome Interesting Video Links

Threefold ServicesServices LinesConsulting

Engineering Design

Program Management

Property & Estate Management

Services AreasMobile Network Convergence & Consolidation5G & Fibre DeploymentElectric & Smart vehicles- Connected Car

Battery Storage TechnologiesHydrogen Fuel cells

Smart Meter

Green Tech-Solar/ Wind

Datacentre infrastructure

Market SectorsTelecommunications & ICT

Energy, Utilities & AutomotiveGovernment & Local Government

Threefold has completed projects and assignments in Ireland, UK, Norway, Australia, India,The Caribbean, Switzerland and South Africa.

Driverless* cars – Key BenefitsSocial & Environmental• Safety - Human error is recognised as the cause ~90% of road accidents

• Social inclusion – Elderly, blind, disabled, rural, youth

• Lower pollution-de-carbonisation of transportation• De-cluttering of streetscape and roadscapes e.g. road signs, gantries even traffic lights• Efficient integrated transport systems

• Less commuting stress

•Better use of urban space

•Driving time = personal or family time

Economic• Capital efficiency - Car is second most expensive possession and utilisation is ~5-7%

• Safety - Economic cost of road accidents in 2010 in the US was $277billion

• Morgan Stanley estimate full autonomous transport would save $5.6 trillion annually

• Top five OEMs spent $46 billion on R&D in 2015

*Fully Autonomous

•Driving time = work time

Levels of Autonomy

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4

High Automation

SAELevel

5Full

AutomationNHTSA and SAE Levels of Automation

Function-specific

AutomationDriver

Assistance

CombinedFunction

AutomationPartial

Automation

Specific environment Self-

Driving AutomationConditional Automation

Full Self-Driving Automation

NHTSA Level 4

ACC

ESC

ACC

LKA

V2V

Platoon++ AI

DLNN

EBS

New Technology AdoptionAll new innovations have challenges and take time to be fully appreciated and adopted

Technophobia and resistance to change is a well know phenomenonwith some justification

We often know with a high degree of certainty thata technology willbe adopted, we just don’t have certainty on when!

Levels of Autonomy over timeHands off, Feet off

Brain Off Incentives Off

Early Adoption

Becoming Mainstream

Ubiquity

2016 - 2025• Increasing automation of driving functions, even on affordable cars

• Adaptive Cruise Control, Automatic Emergency Breaking, Automatic Lane keeping, Pedestrian collision avoidance

• Increased charging infrastructure and government incentives

• AV highway driving• Innovator entrepreneurs start to hire out AVs

• AV Taxi companies, beginning of taxi industry disruption

2025 - 2035•Accidents/collisions significantly reduce

• Fully autonomous vehicles start to become mainstream

• Bus service disruption- segregated or guided bus-ways become fully driverless bringing costs down

• AV city & B-road driving

• Vehicle to vehicle, and vehicle to infrastructure communication technology matures

• Vehicles on demand - no reduction in availability or quality of services

2035 - on• Urban road-space optimisation - narrower lanes, tighter intersection etc.

• Reduced need for urban parking - re-inventing/relocating car parks, on-street parking space for other uses (walking,cycling, market stalls)

• Elimination of accidents/collisions

Autonomous – Some Key ChallengesLegislation & regulation• EU legislation

‘driver’ must be in control – local legislation can redefine ‘driver’

• Trolley dilemma

Politics, Industrial Relations etc• Many stakeholders.

Consensus will be difficult. Early dialogue and planning to minimise issues

Technology• Technology at

early stages• No internationally

agreed standards

Borders•Brexit•LHD/RHD

Cost• Falling rapidly• Incentives will l be

needed to seed market

Infrastructure planning• Over provision/

under provision• Evolution of planning,

knowledge and trainingSecurity•Cyber security•Privacy•Failure

scenarios

Insurance• Very big changes -

Insured “driver”• Big reductions in

claims but also revenues

Introduction/ Transition• Acceptance• Driver behaviorOther downsides• Lower tax

revenues• Less organ

donors

100’s of Autonomous trials globallySingapore:Driverless Cabs Since September 2016

Pitsburg:Uber Driverless Cabs Since September 2016

Tokyo:Driverless Cars For 2020 Olympics

Beijing:Baidu Autonomous Cars Commercial by 2019

Milton Keyns: Public Driverless Car Trials Oct 2016

Paris:Driverless Bus Trials January 2017

Governments around the world are increasing focus & investment

National Movers & shakers

U.S.$4 Billion over next 10 years to Encourage Autonomous/Driverless Cars – WSJ January 2016

NTA Transport Strategyfor the Greater DublinArea 2016 – 2035: No reference to Autonomous/Driverless cars!

Action in Ireland is needed nowStart Stakeholder dialogue as soon as possible• Department of Transport Tourism & Sport• Department of Jobs Enterprise and Innovation

• Department of An Taoiseach• Department of Finance

• NTA & TII• RSA• OEM’s

Develop a National Strategy

• Legislation/regulation to support trials• Funding and directives to encourage and promote trials and pilots• Evolve strategyand legislation based on international & national learning’s

• Tie all elements of our transportation strategy together under a single entity

• There are undoubtedly huge benefits to society from autonomous vehicles

•The huge effortto resolve the challenges will be worth it!

• Ireland may not be at the forefront, but without action a better quality of life for many as well as our global competitiveness will be damaged.Priority #1: Create the right environment through

regulation/Legislation

Some Interesting Links

SAE On-Road Automated Driving (ORAD) Comitee http://profiles.sae.org/tevavs/

NHTSA https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles

YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEebyt6G5kM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSmTF6KoUb8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ96wnza12E

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZ5bHAcnjzs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5O4Yl6ZB4k

Thank you for listening