Board of TrusteesQuarterly Data Report

Volume 1, Number 2

Graduation and Retention Update

January 7, 2014

Retention Rates

CohortEntering Year

1st Year Retention

2nd Year Retention

3rd Year Retention

4th Year Retention

5th Year Retention

Summer Fall Summer Fall Summer Fall Summer Fall Summer Fall

2012-1381.5%

79.2% 83.9%

2011-12 83.7% 69.6%

84.0% 83.5% 68.5% 70.4%

2010-11 82.8% 70.5% 62.0%

81.9% 83.5% 68.5% 72.0% 60.2% 63.4%

2009-10 84.0% 71.5% 65.2% 60.2%

83.5% 84.5% 71.2% 71.9% 63.4% 67.1% 58.5% 61.9%

2008-09 84.8% 72.2% 66.4% 63.4% 60.6%85.0% 84.8% 72.3% 72.1% 66.5% 66.3% 63.9% 63.2% 60.6% 60.5%

Retention Rates

FTICs Entering Fall 2012

On-Campus Housing

Off-Campus Housing

Percent of Students in On- and Off-Campus Housing 89.8% 10.2%

Average Grade Point Average 2.95 2.85

Average Number of Hours Attempted 27.2 25.9

Average Hours Successfully Completed 24.5 22.6

Percent of Students Retained in Fall 2013 84.3% 80.8%

Graduation Rates

Six Year UNF FTIC Graduation Rates

FTIC Entry YearSix Years Later

2002-032007-08

2003-042008-09

2004-052009-10

2005-062010-11

2006-072011-12

Graduated from UNF 45% 49% 46% 49% 47%Rank among SUS institutions 6th 5th 6th (tied) 6th 6th (tied)Graduated from an SUS Institution 54% 57% 54% 56% 55%

Rank among SUS institutions 5th 5th 5th 5th 6th

Graduated from a U.S. Institution* 61% 65% 62% 65% 64%

*Do not have data for other state institutions

Relation between Retention and Graduation

Predictor Variable

Public Masters (n =167) Public and Nonprofit Masters (n =361)

Bachelor's degree within

6 years

Full-time retention rate

Bachelor’s degree within

6 years

Full-time retention rate

r r2 r r2 r r2 r r2

Bachelor’s degree within 6 years 1 1.000 .840 .705 1 1.000 .844 .712Full-time retention rate .840 .705 1 1.000 .844 .712 1 1.000

Positive Predictors of Institutional Graduation Rates

Predictor Variable

Public Masters (n =167) Public and Nonprofit Masters (n =361)

Bachelor's degree within 6

years

Full-time retention rate

Bachelor’s degree within 6

years

Full-time retention rate

r r2 r r2 r r2 r r2

SAT I Math 25th % score .714 .510 .599 .358 .775 .600 .663 .439SAT I Verbal 25th % score .671 .450 .487 .237 .764 .583 .602 .363ACT Composite 25th % score .667 .446 .457 .209 .723 .523 .582 .339

SAT I Math 75th % score .541 .292 .471 .222 .657 .431 .557 .311SAT I Verbal 75th % score .528 .279 .384 .148 .654 .427 .501 .251ACT Composite 75th % score .522 .272 .368 .135 .630 .397 .484 .235

Positive Predictors of Institutional Graduation Rates

Predictor Variable

Public Masters (n =167) Public and Nonprofit Masters (n =361)

Bachelor's degree within 6

years

Full-time retention rate

Bachelor’s degree within 6

years

Full-time retention rate

r r2 r r2 r r2 r r2

Total dormitory capacity .509 .259 .372 .139 .322 .104 .345 .119Tuition and fees, 2005-06 .418 .175 .256 .066 .507 .257 .289 .084% Students Living on Campus .409 .167 .169 .029 .542 .294 .350 .123

% enrollment that is White, non-Hispanic .374 .140 .104 .379 .143 .216 .047

FTIC as a % all undergrads .316 .100 .171 .029 .383 .147 .258 .066In-state required fees for full-time undergrads .306 .094 .357 .127 .041 .149 .022

Negative Predictors of Institutional Graduation Rates

Predictor Variable

Public Masters (n =167) Public and Nonprofit Masters (n =361)

Bachelor's degree within 6

years

Full-time retention rate

Bachelor’s degree within 6

years

Full-time retention rate

r r2 r r2 r r2 r r2

% full-time FTICs receiving Pell grants -.697 .485 -.439 .193 -.657 .432 -.485 .235

% undergrad students receiving Pell -.593 .351 -.353 .125 -.639 .408 -.469 .220

% receiving federal grant aid -.546 .298 -.338 .114 -.602 .363 -.475 .226

% enrollment that is Black, non-Hispanic -.413 .170 -.303 .092 -.374 .140 -.325 .105

Transfer-out rate – bachelor’s cohort -.320 .102 -.436 .190 -.244 .060 -.421 .177

New transfer students as % of all new students -.286 .082 -.191 .037 -.521 .271 -.418 .174

Predictive Modeling for 2005 Cohorts(227 Public and Non-Profit Privates)

Retention, 2006 Graduation, 2011Factor Effect Significance   Effect SignificanceUNF 1.929 None   -0.678 NonePeers / Aspirants 2.205 None   4.471 NoneUndergraduate Pct. -0.104 *** -0.101 **FTE vs. Total Enrolled 0.126 ** 0.188 **Matriculation Rate -0.078 *** -0.171 *****SAT Math 25th percentile 0.049 *** 0.085 *****SAT Verbal 75th percentile 0.024 ** 0.043 ***ACT 25th percentile 0.369 None 1.109 ****Pct. Female 0.091 ** 0.164 ***Pct. Hispanic 0.075 ** 0.137 ***Total Univ. Revenues 0.026 **** 0.021 **Tuition+Fees Pct. of Revs. 0.008 None 0.075 **Avg. Pell Grant -0.005 **** -0.007 ****Pct. With Pell Grant -0.044 None -0.116 **Pct. Living on Campus 0.067 * 0.135 ***Transfers as Pct. of New -0.114 **** -0.162 *****Student / Faculty Ratio 0.390 *** 0.260 NoneTown Location -1.926 * -0.058 NoneAdmission Rate -0.050 * -0.050 NoneVariation Explained 68%   83%

• After accounting for student & institutional factors, our retention and graduation rates are essentially the same as other comprehensive masters institutions. Stated otherwise, we are positioned right where one would expect us to be.

• Once we know the factors in the preceding table, factors found to be

insignificant include:

Predictive Modeling for 2005 Cohorts(227 Public and Non-Profit Privates)

– Whether school is public or private

– City, rural, or suburban locations

– Total enrollment– Total undergrads– Total applicants– Total FTE– FTIC percentage– Other SAT or ACT thresholds

– Total tuition & fee revenue

– Affordability index– Percentage of black students– Percentage of white students– Percentage with any aid– Percentage of FTICs with Pell– Average Pell for FTICs– Total dorm rooms– Remoteness of location

Upon Arrival After Fall term After Spring termFactor Effect Signif. Effect Signif. Effect Signif.Lived on campus in Fall 0.244 ***** 0.238 ***** 0.169 **Housing made mandatory 0.101 None -0.011 None -0.124 NoneSAT 0.000 None 0.000 None 0.000 NoneHigh School GPA 0.530 ***** 0.062 None -0.014 NoneAP credits 0.014 **** 0.008 * 0.003 NoneFall Hours Attempted 0.014 None -0.006 NoneFall Hours Earned 0.017 None -0.002 NoneFall GPA 0.495 ***** 0.254 *****Spring Hours Attempted 0.002 NoneSpring Hours Earned 0.034 ***Spring GPA 0.273 *****Asian 0.266 None 0.215 None 0.365 *Asian Pacific Islander 0.346 ** 0.407 *** 0.305 *Black 0.202 * 0.231 ** 0.203 NoneHispanic -0.044 None 0.018 None -0.024 NoneMulti-racial -0.094 None -0.016 None -0.074 NoneNon-resident alien 0.376 * 0.029 None -0.156 NoneEthnicity not reported 3.824 None 3.825 None 4.422 NoneFemale 0.005 None -0.040 None -0.068 None

Predictive Modeling of Second-Year Retention(UNF Students Only, 2008-2012 Cohorts)

Upon Arrival After Fall term After Spring termFactor Effect Signif. Effect Signif. Effect Signif.Declared major in BCH -0.103 None -0.100 None -0.121 NoneDeclared major in CCB 0.050 None 0.046 None 0.069 NoneDeclared major in COEHS -0.028 None 0.002 None -0.005 NoneDeclared major in CCEC 0.035 None 0.129 None 0.169 *Did not declare major 0.070 None 0.059 None 0.099 NoneFrom Out-of-State -0.441 ***** -0.594 ***** -0.631 *****From Region 1 -0.242 ** -0.268 ** -0.231 *From Region 3 -0.211 **** -0.225 **** -0.206 ***From Region 4 -0.342 ***** -0.381 ***** -0.319 ****From Region 5 -0.233 *** -0.270 *** -0.195 **From Region 6 -0.188 None -0.239 None -0.238 NoneFrom Region 7 -0.130 None -0.229 None -0.288 NoneYear 2008 0.225 None 0.034 None -0.082 NoneYear 2009 0.233 None 0.068 None -0.064 NoneYear 2010 0.115 None 0.002 None -0.102 NoneYear 2011 0.089 None -0.049 None -0.178 NoneVariation Explained 6.5% 21.4% 22.2%Sample Size 5213 5213 4917

Predictive Modeling of Second-Year Retention(UNF Students Only, 2008-2012 Cohorts)

• A student’s grades are the key driver of retention and graduation.

• Living on campus is highly related to retention at all three points in time. Moreover, the size of the effect of on-campus housing on retention was the same whether on-campus was mandatory or optional.

• Upon a student’s arrival at UNF, high school GPA and AP credits are good predictors of

retention, whereas SAT scores are not.

• Once the FTIC gets through his/her first fall, even the high school GPA is no longer a good predictor. After the first spring, AP credits also drop out as good predictors.

• Fall term GPA is a strong predictor once student gets through his/her first Fall term.

Spring term GPA and spring hours earned are strong predictors once student gets through his/her first Spring term.

Predictive Modeling of Second-Year Retention(UNF Students Only, 2008-2012 Cohorts)

• There is evidence we retain Black, Asian-Pacific Islander, and Asian students more readily than White students.

• There is no gender effect. • There is no effect of the college being targeted as they come in our door (all

comparisons are versus COAS), but CCEC majors show higher retention once they’re through the spring term.

• Out-of-state students, and students from all regions except regions 6 and 7, are

retained at a lower rate than region 2 (our home region).

• Once through the spring term, 2012 FTICs do show higher retention than FTICs from all earlier years, but there’s not conclusive evidence that 2012 was indeed better (i.e., the differences observed could be random).

Predictive Modeling of Second-Year Retention(UNF Students Only, 2008-2012 Cohorts)