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Bluefish

Management Measures

for 2015

Stock Status

Overfishing not occurring, Not overfished

F2013: 0.118 (FMSY: 0.19)

B2013: 123,716 mt (BMSY: 147,052 mt)

– B/BMSY ~ 0.8413

Declining abundance

– Low recruitment 2008 fwd

Fishing Mortality

Biomass

Abundance

Recruitment

Fishery Performance Report

Reduced abundance/availability toward south

High abundance/availability toward north (variable)

Lots of large bluefish

Schools with abundant fish, but fewer schools

Becoming a primary target for charter vessels

Greater than usual baitfish (bunker and sandeels)

Offshore temps are lower than normal

Bag limit (15 fish) too high

Table 12. Projection results for bluefish through 2016 under various fishing scenarios.

F 2014 11.08 64930.90 110.38 104.77 11.08

status quo 2015 0.118 68624.50 105.94 98.48 9.92

2016 0.118 70609.40 104.38 95.82 10.02

F 2014 11.08 64930.90 110.38 104.77 11.08

low 2015 0.10 68624.50 106.66 99.18 8.47

2016 0.10 71251.80 106.54 97.87 8.68

F0.1 2014 11.08 64930.90 110.38 104.77 11.08

2015 0.16 68624.50 104.28 96.86 13.23

2016 0.16 69147.00 99.54 91.20 12.93

Ftarget 2014 11.08 64930.90 110.38 104.77 11.08

2015 0.17 68624.50 103.89 96.48 14.00

2016 0.17 68806.00 98.42 90.14 13.57

Fmsy 2014 11.08 64930.90 110.38 104.77 11.08

2015 0.19 68624.50 103.12 95.72 15.52

2016 0.19 68132.50 96.23 88.05 14.82

Quota

(000s mt)

Yield

(000s mt)

Mean

Biomass

(000s mt)

SSB

(000s mt)F

Jan 1

Abundance

(000s)

Calculating ABC for 2015

ABC Calculation based on "typical" life history and CV input

Parameter Value Basis

OFL 15,522 Assessment Update

B/Bmsy 0.7506 Assessment Update

CV 100% Risk Policy

sigma 0.8326 Definition

P* 0.2892 Calculated

ABC 9,772 Calculated

ABC/OFL 0.6295 Calculated

MAFMC SSCABC Recommendation

Bluefish

2015 Fishing Year

Level 3

• The structure of the assessment was unchanged from previous specification.

• There were no new estimates of uncertainties associated with maximum fishing mortality rate (OFL).

OFL

The OFL = 15,522 mt, based on an Fmsy of 0.19.

ABC

• ABC = 9,772 mt (24.4 million lb) for the 2015 fishing year

• The ratio of B/BMSY, based on mid-year estimates from 2014, is 0.751, and that Bluefish exhibit a typical life history.

• The SSC applied the Council's risk policy of P* = 0.289.

• The projection is 62.9% of the catch at OFL.

Number of Fishing Years for ABC

Since a benchmark assessment of Bluefish is scheduled for 2015, the SSC does not recommend ABCs for fishing years beyond 2015.

Most Significant Sources of Scientific Uncertainty

The value of BMSY has been fixed, based on the

2005 Assessment, and has not been changed

since then – in contrast, the OFL has been

updated annually. This increases uncertainty in

the ABC.

Delay in the timing of the NEFSC fall survey in

2013 by three weeks resulted in an estimated

CPUE that was a time series low. This low CPUE

may reflect the change in the survey timing and

not Bluefish stock abundance per se.

Scientific Uncertainty (cont’d)

There is a significant level of missing data

involved in the age-length keys (ALKs), which are

critical for development of the catch-at-age

matrix;

Concern exists about the application of aggregate

trawl calibration coefficients (ALBATROSS IV vs

BIGELOW), and their influence on the selectivity

pattern and results of the assessment. Also,

some near shore areas previously sampled by the

ALBATROSS IV are unavailable for sampling by

the BIGELOW;


Commercial discards are assumed to be

insignificant, which may not be the case;

Two-thirds of the population biomass is in the

aggregated 6+ age group for which there is

relatively little information;

Questions have been raised about the uncertainty

in the historical MRFSS/MRIP estimates in

general, and are particularly relevant here given

the highly episodic nature of Bluefish catches in

the recreational fisheries coast wide;


The basis for the unusual bimodal selectivity

curve used in the ASAP model is not well

understood.

Calculating ABC for 2015

ABC Calculation based on "typical" life history and CV input

Parameter Value Basis

OFL 15,522 Assessment Update

B/Bmsy 0.7506 Assessment Update

CV 100% Risk Policy

sigma 0.8326 Definition

P* 0.2892 Calculated

ABC 9,772 Calculated

ABC/OFL 0.6295 Calculated

ABC Trends

Biomass

Fishery Performance

Management Measures2014 Management Measure Basis mt M lb

OFL 15,520 34,215,743

ABC Constant F (0.132) 9,772 21,543,572

ACL = ABC 9,772 21,543,572

Mgmt Uncerta inty per MC 0 0

Comm Discards from assessment 0 0

Rec Discards Three Year Average 1,520 3,351,026

Comm ACT (ACL - Mgmt Uncert) * 17% 1,661 3,662,407

Rec ACT (ACL - Mgmt Uncert) * 83% 8,111 17,881,165

Comm TAL Comm ACT - Disc 1,661 3,662,407

Rec TAL Rec ACT - Disc 6,591 14,530,139

TAL (combined) Comm + Rec TAL 8,252 18,192,546

Expected Recreational Landings Three Year Average 5,930 13,073,412

Maximum Transfer Calculated 477 1,052,394

pre-RSA Comm Quota Comm TAL + transfer 2,139 4,714,802

pre-RSA RHL Rec TAL - transfer 6,113 13,477,744

Comm RSA Deduction (3%) 3% of Comm Quota 64 141,444

Rec RSA Deduction (3%) 3% of RHL 183 404,332

Adjusted Comm Quota Comm Quota - RSA 2,074 4,573,358

Adjusted RHL RHL - RSA 5,930 13,073,412

2014 Management Measure Basis mt M lb

OFL 15,520 34,215,743

ABC Constant F (0.132) 9,772 21,543,572

ACL = ABC 9,772 21,543,572













Comm RSA Deduction (3%) 3% of Comm Quota 64 141,444

Rec RSA Deduction (3%) 3% of RHL 183 404,332

Adjusted Comm Quota Comm Quota - RSA 2,074 4,573,358

Adjusted RHL RHL - RSA 5,930 13,073,412

2014 Management Measure Basis mt M lb

OFL 15,520 34,215,743

ABC Risk Pol icy (P* = 0.289) 9,772 21,543,572

ACL = ABC 9,772 21,543,572













Management Measures

0.0067 30,573 280 57,985 30,293 (27,412)

0.0041 18,957 161 35,953 18,796 (16,997)

0.0672 307,179 591,743 582,602 (284,564) (275,423)

0.0681 311,359 457,382 590,530 (146,023) (279,171)

0.0127 57,912 31,755 109,838 26,157 (51,926)

0.1039 474,948 1,261,364 900,796 (786,416) (425,849)

0.1482 677,598 346,251 1,285,147 331,346 (607,549)

0.0188 85,897 10,073 162,914 75,824 (77,017)

0.0300 137,283 45,726 260,374 91,557 (123,091)

0.1188 543,292 300,314 1,030,420 242,978 (487,128)

0.3206 1,466,255 1,135,480 2,780,932 330,775 (1,314,677)

0.0004 1,610 4 3,053 1,605 (1,443)

0.0001 434 0 824 434 (390)

0.1006 460,066 142,198 872,571 317,868 (412,505)

1.0000 4,573,362 4,322,731 8,673,931 250,631 (4,100,569)

2015 Quota vs

2013 Landings

2015 vs 2014

Quotas2014 Quota2013 Landings2015 QuotaAllocation

Management Measures

0.0067 34,221 280 57,985 33,941 (23,764)

0.0041 21,219 161 35,953 21,058 (14,735)

0.0672 343,837 591,743 582,602 (247,906) (238,765)

0.0681 348,516 457,382 590,530 (108,866) (242,014)

0.0127 64,824 31,755 109,838 33,069 (45,014)

0.1039 531,627 1,261,364 900,796 (729,737) (369,169)

0.1482 758,461 346,251 1,285,147 412,210 (526,686)

0.0188 96,148 10,073 162,914 86,075 (66,766)

0.0300 153,666 45,726 260,374 107,940 (106,708)

0.1188 608,127 300,314 1,030,420 307,814 (422,292)

0.3206 1,641,235 1,135,480 2,780,932 505,755 (1,139,696)

0.0004 1,802 4 3,053 1,798 (1,251)

0.0001 486 0 824 486 (338)

0.1006 514,969 142,198 872,571 372,771 (357,602)

1.0000 5,119,134 4,322,731 8,673,931 796,403 (3,554,797)

2013 Landings 2014 Quota2015 Quota vs

2013 Landings

2015 vs 2014

QuotasAllocation 2015 Quota

Recreational fishery

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232526273031425055

Fre

q

N Fish Caught

Catch FrequencyME 3

NH 10

MA 10

RI 15

CT 10

NY 15

NJ 15

DE 10

MD 10

VA 10

NC 15

SC 15

GA 15

FL 10

State Bag Limit


ME 3

NH 10

MA 10

RI 15

CT 10

NY 15

NJ 15

DE 10

MD 10

VA 10

NC 15

SC 15

GA 15

FL 10

State Bag Limit

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Fre

q

N Fish Landed

Landings Frequency


ME 3

NH 10

MA 10

RI 15

CT 10

NY 15

NJ 15

DE 10

MD 10

VA 10

NC 15

SC 15

GA 15

FL 10

State Bag Limit

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Fre

q

N Fish Landed

Landings Frequency

1.8% of trips

Summary / Staff Recommendations

No overfishing / Not overfished

OFL = 15,522 mt B2014/BMSY = 0.7506

ABC2015 = ACL = 9,772 mt (21.544 M lb) ACT = ACL

Max Transfer = 1.052 M lb Final Comm Quota = 4.573 M lb

– 5.8% increase in landings compared to 2013

– 47.3% decrease in quota compared to 2014

Final RHL = 13.073 M lb

10 Fish Bag Limit

RSA up to 3% pending Coucil decision on RSA program

Benchmark Assessment in 2015

Summary / Staff Recommendations


OFL = 15,522 mt B2014/BMSY = 0.7506

ABC2015 = ACL = 9,772 mt (21.544 M lb) ACT = ACL


– 5.8% increase in landings compared to 2013

– 47.3% decrease in quota compared to 2014


15 Fish Bag Limit

RSA up to 3% pending Coucil decision on RSA program


MC Recommendations

ACT = ACL



Maintain 15 Fish Rec Bag Limit

RSA up to 3% pending Council decision on RSA program

Questions?


B2014/BMSY = 0.7506

ABC2015 = 9,772 mt (21.544 M lb)

Max Transfer = 1.052 M lb

Final Comm Quota = 4.573 M lb

– 37% decrease in quota



Move to adopt for bluefish in 2015…

- an ACL of 21.544 M lb equivalent to ABC,

- a rec ACT of 17.881 M lb

- a comm ACT of 3.662 M lb

corresponding to

- a rec TAL of 14.530 M lb and

- a comm TAL of 3.662 M lb, and to allow

- a transfer of up to 1.457 M lb rec to comm TAL resulting in

- a recreational harvest limit of 13.073 M lb and a commercial quota of 5.119 M lb.

Motion

Move for bluefish in 2015 to allow no research set-aside of up to 3% (545,776 lbs) of the combined recreational and commercial TALs.

bluefish management measures for 2015static.squarespace.com/static... · o 2015 8 0 4 8 2 2016 8 0...

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