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Population

Birth Rates and Fertility in China: How Credible are RecentData? (Population, 4, 1998)Isabelle Attané, Minglei Sun

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Attané Isabelle, Sun Minglei. Birth Rates and Fertility in China: How Credible are Recent Data? (Population, 4, 1998). In:

Population, an English selection, 11ᵉ année, n°1, 1999. pp. 251-260.

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2/11

BIRTH RATES

AND

FERTILITY IN CHINA

How Credible are

Recent

Data?

The

question of the

reliability

of China's

population

statistics, which

has

often

been discussed in the past

(Bianco,

1981; Stôcklin, 1992), remains a topical one.

How credible are the official data

published

at regular intervals? How are they to

be interpreted when one set of

figures contradicts

another?

We shall first take the

year 1989 -the

last one for which data from

several

different

sources

were

available

-

to

illustrate

some

of

the

contradictions, and

demonstrate how incomplete the statistics derived from registration data are.

Second,

we

shall

show that, although the demographic data published for the 1980s are

relatively

reliable,

the

quality is considerably worse

for the 1990s: the surveys

conducted in 1992 and

1995

leave much

to

be desired, particularly with respect

to

fertility

and birth reporting,

to

the

extent that

recent

population developments

are

obscured.

I. - The

sources

of demographic

data

In

China, three

State organs are in charge of

collecting population data:

the

Ministry

of

Public

Security

(Gong'anbu),

the

State Statistical

Bureau

(Guojia

tongji

ju) and

the State

Family Planning Commission (Guojia

jihua shengyu weiyuanhui).

The vital registration system,

based

on household registration,

was

set

up

in the

mid-1950s.

The

urban registers are held by the police commissioners (paichu

suo)

in the towns (zhen) or residential districts ijiedao) and the rural ones

by

the local

government officials

in

the townships (xiang).

The

registration

data

collected in

these

level-4 administrative units (townships,

towns, residential

districts) are

forwarded to

each

of the higher levels in turn:

first

the Public

Security

Bureaux in

the level-3

counties

and municipalities, then those in the

provinces,

provincial-level

municipalities and autonomous regions (see Figure

1).

The

national

data are

finally

centralized

by

the Ministry of Public Security,

who

compile the

registration

statistics

(huji), some of

which are

published in the

Chinese

Statistical Yearbook

(Zhongguo

tongji

nianjian)

and

the

Chinese

Population Yearbook

(Zhongguo

renkou

tongji

nian-

jian).

The

State

Statistical Bureau (SSB) is in charge of organizing the censuses

(renkou

pucha) and demographic surveys

(renkou

chouyang diaocha).

Since

the

founding of the

People's

Republic of China in

1949,

four censuses

(1953, 1964,

1982 and

1990) and

two

intercensal

surveys

(1987 and 1995)

have

been taken. In

order to

offset the growing deficiencies of the

vital

registration system, in 1982

the SSB drew a

sample

of 500,000 individuals

to

serve

as

reference

population

for

an annual survey (wushiwan

chouyang

diaocha). The population estimates published

by

the SSB since then have generally

been based

on these

surveys.

Population:

An English Selection,

11, 1999,

251-260


3/11

252 I.

ATTANE, SUN

Minglei

LEVEL 1:

Province

LEVEL 2:

Prefecture

LEVEL 3:

County

LEVEL 4:

Township

LEVEL 5:

Village

3 municipalities

(zhi xia

shi)

22

provinces

(sheng)

5

autonomous

regions

(zizhi qu)

Municipalities

(diji shi)

Prefectures

(diqu)

Urban districts

(shi xia

qu)

Counties

(xian)

Residential

districts

(jiedao)

Municipalities

(xianji shi)

Towns

(zhen)

Townships

(xiang)

Neighbourhood committeesjumin

weiyuanhui) Village

committees

cunmin weiyuanhui)

Figure 1. - China's administrative structure

N.B. In addition to

these

30

top-level administrative

units, two

more

were added in

1997:

the municipality of

Chongqing

and the special administrative region of

Hong

Kong

There is an organism

in

charge of family planning at every level of the

administrative

structure. The

State Family

Planning

Commission (SFPC)

presides over

all. Then there

are

Family Planning

Commissions (jihua shengyu weiyuanhui) at

levels 1,

2

and 3

(province {sheng

ji),

prefecture (diji)

and county (xianji)).

Below

that,

at the township level (xiang

ji),

Family Planning Bureaux

(jihua

shengyu ban-

gongshi) have been set up.

Finally,

at the base level - neighbourhood and village

committees - we find, in the

countryside,

small groups in charge of Family Planning

in the villages (сип jihua shengyu lingdao

xiaozu)

and, in urban areas,

Neighbourhood

Committee Family Planning Bureaux

(jumin weiyuanhui jihua shengyu

ban-

gongshi). It

is

at this

root level

that the

persons-in-charge

supervise the

data


4/11

BIRTH

RATES AND FERTILITY IN CHINA 253

collection (registration of marriages and births) and compile current statistics on

the family planning programme

(proportions of late

and

early

marriages, proportions

of

planned

and unplanned births *, contraceptive prevalence). The information,

having

been channelled

through

the

different

levels

to

the

State Family Planning

Commission, provides the

material

from which the national and provincial family

planning statistics are established each

year.

Some of these are published in the

Chinese

Family Planning Yearbook

(Zhongguo jihua

shengyu

nianjian), in which

the SFPC

also presents

population

size

and mortality data

which

it does not

collect

itself, but receives from the Ministry of Public Security.

The

SFPC also organizes nationwide surveys on fertility and birth control

(Quanguo shengyu lu chouyang diaocha, Quanguo shengyu jieyu chouyang diao-

cha). The

first was

held in 1982, followed

by

two others in 1988 and

1992.

II.

The

deficiencies

of

the registration

data

A comparison of the data for 1989

derived

from these different sources reveals

substantial

discrepancies. While the

State

Family Planning

Commission

published

a figure of

1,101.17

million inhabitants at the

end

of 1989 and the Ministry of

Public Security (MPS) a similar one, 1,1 03.56(2), the

census

data yielded a

population

of 1,127.00 million

(Figure 2).

There were 24.62 million live births in 1989

according

to

the

1990 census,

but only 18.07 according

to vital

registration data

(MPS) and 16.71 according to family planning statistics

(SFPC):

in other words,

one-quarter (26.6 ) of the

births

enumerated in the census were not

registered by

the MPS and one-third (32.1 ) were missing from family planning statistics. The

corresponding

rates

of natural increase in 1989 are

9.8 per 1,000

from family

planning

statistics and

11.0

per

1,000

from vital registration,

versus 14.7

per 1,000

from

the

census,

while

the

birth

rates

are

15.3, 16.5 and

21.0

per

1,000 respectively.

Under China's current family planning policy, couples must comply with a

number

of rules -

minimum

age at marriage and parenthood, family size restrictions - or

be

punished for

having transgressed them, together with

the

official in charge of

seeing

that the

rules

are

respected. Such

penalties

can no doubt

explain the

vast

scale

of

under-reporting. For the

year 1989,

the family planning

statistics recorded

only

269,000 early marriages (with

under-age

brides) and

2.6

million

unplanned

births,

while the 1992 survey gave

2.6

and 11 million respectively: a

coverage

loss

of

almost 90% of early marriages and 75% of unplanned

births

in the

SFPC

registration

data (Figure 3). Furthermore, the

1992

survey data

are also

challenged, as we

shall

see, meaning that the under-reporting may

have

been even more acute.

The higher the birth

order,

the less likely it is to

be

authorized, and the more

likely it

is to

miss being registered. When we compare the family planning statis-

tics(3) for 1989 to the 1990 census

data

for that year,

we

observe the following

С Late marriages occur when the spouses

were

at least three years older than the

minimum legal age, and early marriages when they

were

under that age, which is 20 for

women

and

22 for

men.

Planned births

are

those which

had been authorised beforehand.

2) We note that although the population numbers published by the SFPC are received

from the MPS, the

figure

published by the

latter

was 2 million higher. The

difference

is

apparently

due to

the fact that the data the MPS

communicates to

the SFPC are based on

vital

registration statistics, while

ts

own figures are

estimated from the annual 500,000 sample

survey.

*3) The birth statistics published by the

SFPC

are broken down by order only, so un-

der-registration cannot be estimated by sex.


5/11

254

I. ATTANE, SUN

Minglei

Population

size (in

millions)

I.I3U

1,100

1,050

1,000

SFPC

ital

registration

ensus

INED

2998

Figure 2. -

Population

size at

end

of 1989, according

to

different

sourcesin millions)

Family

planning statistics

1992

survey

Figure 3. -

Women

married before the legal age of 20 and 'unplanned'

births,

1989,

from

different

sources


6/11

BIRTH

RATES

AND

FERTILITY

IN

CHINA 255

Births

( in

millions)

25

10-

5

Figure

4. - Births of different orders in 1989, according to 1990 census

data

and

SFPC

registration

data

shortfall: the

births

registered by the

SFPC

represent

99.0 of

first births, but only

56.4%

of second

births

and

18.0% of third

and higher order births (Figure 4).

Vital registration

coverage

is

generally

considered

to

have

been

good

from

the late

1950s

to the late

1970s. But

the quality of demographic statistics

based

on

registration

has

since suffered severe setbacks

with

the dismantling of the

people s

communes

in the early 1980s, and the gradual

crumbling

away

of the structures

whereby

the State controlled the

population. The

decay

of

the registration system

has

many

facets: constantly

swelling internal

migration making

it

ever

more difficult

to follow

up

the

growing

numbers of

movers,

loss of

State control, negligence in

reporting of

information, couples purposely

concealing an unauthorized

marriage

or unplanned birth to avoid

being

penalized,

officials

doctoring statistics to reach

the required family planning targets...

The national

surveys

and censuses are

not,

however, without their own flaws.

According

to

the

postcensal

survey,

the

1990

census

under-enumerated

the

population

by

0.7 per 1,000

and births by

1.03 per

1,000, but such

rates

are suspiciously

low. Yet this

census is

incontestably the most

reliable source

in recent years: the

latest

surveys

show

blatant

deficiencies.

Since the last

population census

in

1990,

China has taken

two

demographic

surveys:

a national fertility survey

held

in Autumn

1992 on

a sample population

of

385,000,

of whom just

under 80,000

women of reproductive ages, and an inter-

censal survey in 1995

on a one-per-cent

population sample (12,366,955 or, including

the military, 12,565,584).

The two surveys

had different

targets:

the first was

designed

to collect detailed information on couples' behaviour as

regards

marriage

and reproduction

- nuptiality,

fertility, contraception, compliance with birth control

measures - while

the

second

was

designed to

take stock of the

population between


7/11

256

I.

ATTANE, SUN

Minglei

the censuses of 1990 and

2000 -population size,

sex/age distribution,

marital

structure households,

nuptiality,

fertility, mortality,

migration

and

housing

conditions.

Thus, both

surveys

contained

questions

on fertility that would supposedly capture

recent trends.

III. - The 1992 survey

The provisional findings of the 1992 fertility survey taken

by

the

State

Family

Planning Commission indicated a spectacular drop in the period total fertility rate

(TFR), from 2.25 in 1990 (census data) to 1.65 in 1991 and 1.52 in 1992. Obviously

unrealistic and a

sign

of the

survey's

shortcomings, these findings were immediately

corrected

by the

SFPC.

A 13% under-reporting

rate

was applied

to

the

raw birth

data - without any explanation

as

to the choice

of

this rate - which brought TFR

to

1.87 in

1991 and

1.72 in

1992, and the birth rates to

19.3

and 18.1 per 1,000

respectively. These official figures

indicate

a fertility decline which

is

probably

still

overstated, however,

as

we shall now see.

Indeed, an

alternative

adjustment of the survey data

has

been proposed

by

the Chinese demographer Zeng

Yi

(1995), working in

his

personal capacity. It was

based on the

findings of

a special survey the SFPC

organized

in

October 1993

in

32

villages,

in Hebei

and Hubei provinces, to investigate the problem of

under-reported births in the rural areas. Unlike the 1992 survey, the 1993 special survey

used field workers who were not local family planning officials. This

was

designed

to

eliminate the risk

of

officials doctoring the statistics

to

avoid being penalized

if the results in their sector were below par. For the 32 villages, the survey found

that

births

were under-reported

by

a rate of 37.3%.

By assuming that this rate applied to all rural areas, and that the urban rate

was

only

half

as high,

Zeng

Yi

estimated

the

whole-country

under-reporting

rate

was 24.8% in 1991

and

27.5% in

1992,

which

gave an adjusted TFR value of 2.2

in 1991 and 2.1 in 1992 (Table

1).

Table 1.-

djustment of

total fertility

in 1991

and

1992

as estimated from the 1992

survey

1991

1992

1991

1992

Births

registered by

SFPC

(in millions)

(a)

16.971

15.975

TFR

derived

from

(d)

f)

1.65

1.52

Estimated

under-

registration

rate (%)*

(b)

34.62

34.62

Underreport ing

rate

(%)

(e)

24.76

27.51

Births corrected

for under-

registration

(in millions)

(c)

=

(a)/[l-(b)]

25.957

24.403

Adjusted

TFR

g) = (f)/[100-(e)]

2.20

2.10

Births

reported in

1992 survey

(in millions)

(d)

19.530

17.690

Under-reporting

rate, 1992 survey

(%)

(e)

= [(c)

- (d)]/(c)

24.76

27.51

*

Based

on the

1993

special survey.

Source:

Zeng Yi (1995)


8/11

BIRTH


IV. - The 1995 survey

The first results of the 1995 intercensal survey were published in

April

1996

by

the

State Statistical

Bureau

and

the full

whole-country

results

were

published

in January

1997

by the Population Survey Bureau (Quangguo renkou

chouyang

diaocha

bangongshi)

in

a volume entitled 1995 nian quanguo 1%

renkou chouyang

diaocha ziliao

(National

Data from the One-Per-Cent 1995

Sample

Survey


9/11

258

I. ATTANÉ, SUN Minglei

Table 3.-

Crude

and adjusted

total

fertility

rates

1989-95,

from

different sources

1989

1990

1991

1992

1995

1990 census

2.30

2.25

1992 survey

Raw

data

2.24

2.04

1.65

1.52

Adjusted

data

2.20

2.10

1995 survey

Raw

data

1.46

Adjusted

data

1.85

children

per woman. In other words, the

officially

adjusted 1995

survey

data would

still

understate

Chinese

fertility by

at least 15 percentage points.

The different TFR estimates

published

for recent years

are

shown in Tables

2

and

3.

V.

-

A

further decline of

fertility?

After

the

sharp decline of

the 1970s (TFR fell from

5.4

in 1971 to

2.8

in

1979)

and the relative

stability

of the 1980s (around 2.4 throughout the decade),

Chinese

fertility is

apparently

declining

anew.

It seems likely that the TFR

values

have been in the region of 2 children

per woman

since 1991 (Figure 5), and

this

low level is hardly

surprising. Indeed, since the mid-1980s more

than

one-third

of

the

population

have been

subjected to

the one-child family policy, and even if

it

is not totally respected,

this

norm does predominate. Supposing that the women

living

in

the

cities

and

towns

now have around

1.5

children on

average,

the

women

living in the

counties

would have

around

2.4, a figure which, given the

differences

between authorized

and actual family size,

is

plausible(6). A

slight

rise in age at

marriage'7'

since 1990 and wider birth

spacing may

also

explain

part

of

the

present

decrease in the

period fertility rates.

Another

factor

no

doubt

contributing to the decline

is

the growth

of

rural-

urban

migration. With the

easing

of restrictions since the early

1980s,

and more

especially since the early

1990s,

many

young

people can

now

look for

work

in the

towns and cities, and be authorized to live

there

- at least temporarily - provided

their employer

can

settle the administrative formalities related to their residence.

Most of

these young

migrants

are single or move

alone, leaving

their families

behind, and

this

isolation

has a definite

impact

on fertility

timing.

Xie (1997)

describes

the

case

of

companies

located

in

Zhejiang

which

need

more workers

than the

local

labour force

can

supply; they therefore employ migrant workers, most

of

whom

are women, since the companies are principally engaged in light or

textile

industry.

He states that these

women

generally want to earn

some

money

before

they get

The

family

planning policy authorizes

an

estimated 80% of rural women

to

have

two

children,

and each year roughly

40%

of births in the countryside are not authorized.

7) Women's

mean

age

at

first

marriage,

calculated

from

the observed proportions

single

was 22.1 in

1990 (census data)

and

22.7

in

1995

(intercensal

survey data). We note,

however, that

for this

indicator

to reflect the situation

with accuracy,

both the

intensity and

timing of marriage must be

stable. Since only

the

first of these conditions

is fulfilled, it

can

only provide

an

approximation.


10/11

BIRTH


Children per

woman

7

2

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994

Year

Figure 5.

-TFR trends in China, 1970-95

Sources: 1970-90:

1982

and

1988

fertility surveys,

1990

census;

1991-95 (all-China)

and

1988-95

urban and

rural):

interpolations

based

on

adjusted 1992 and 1995

survey

data

married,

and that

many

of them delay their

wedding

until they have put

aside

enough

money

for their

trousseau. The

new socio-economic context

created

by

the reforms

(more widespread

internal

migration, generalization of

women's labour

force

participation,

higher

costs of childrearing) may,

therefore,

be contributing to a

postponement of marriage and parenthood, and thereby be

reducing

period

fertility.

However,

the

question is

whether this

downward

trend

will

continue

in the future,

in

which case there

will be

a

real

reduction

of completed

family

size, or

whether

the

pattern will

alter once the

Chinese

population

has

adapted to

its new

social and

economic conditions.

Isabelle

Attané,

INED,

Sun

Minglei, Research student,

INED


11/11

260

I. ATTANÉ, SUN

Minglei

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429 p.

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