demographic pva’s based on vital rates. basic types of vital rates fertility rates survival rates...
DESCRIPTION
The estimation of Vital rates Accurate estimation of variance and correlation in the demographic rates We need to know: The mean value for each vital rate The variability in each rate The covariance or correlation between each pair of ratesTRANSCRIPT
Demographic PVA’s Based on vital rates
Basic types of vital rates
• Fertility rates• Survival rates• State transition, or growth rates
The estimation of Vital rates
• Accurate estimation of variance and correlation in the demographic rates
• We need to know:• The mean value for each vital rate• The variability in each rate• The covariance or correlation between
each pair of rates
Limitations of Matrix selection
• The assumption that the precise combinations of values that we observed the limited duration of a demographic study will always occur is unlikely to be correct.
A more realistic approach
• Use the means, variances, and correlations between vital rates, and then simulate a broader range of possible values
The problem of negative correlations
• A hypothetical individual is currently in size class 3 and has mean probability s3=0.95 of surviving for one year.
• If it survives it will either stay the same size, or grow to be in size class 4 with mean probability g4,3=0.10
a33=s3(1-g43)=(0.95)(1-0.10) and
a43=s3g43=(0.95)(0.10)
The Desert Tortoise
Size classes and definitions of matrix elements for the desert tortoise assuming a prebreeding census
Class 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7Yearling 0 f5 f6 f7
Juvenile 1 1 s2 s2(1-g2)
Juvenile 2 2 s2g2 s2(1-g2)
Immature 3 s2g2 s3(1-g3)
Immature 4 s3g3 s4(1-g4)
Subadult 5 s4g4 s5(1-g5)
Adult 1 6 s5g5 s6(1-g6)
Adult 2 7 s6g6 s7
Estimated vital rates Growth Survival
Class 1970 1980e 1980l Mean Var 1970 1980e 1980l Mean Var
2 .5 0 0.5 0.33 0.083 .63 1 .65 .76 .044
3 .5 0.18 0.177 0.28 0.036 .91 1 .98 .96 .002
4 .47 0.067 0 0.18 0.065 .98 .59 .81 .79 .039
5 .23 0.26 0 0.16 0.020 .98 .92 1 .96 .0018
6 .063 0.032 0 0.032 0.001 .99 1 .68 .89 .034
7 .78 1 .8 .86 .015
Pearson CorrelationsGrowth
g2 g3 g4 g5 g6
g2 1
g3 .469 1
g4 .382 .995 1
g5 -.597 .429 .514 1
g6 -0.014 .877 .919 .811 1
Pearson CorrelationsSurvival
s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7
s2 1
s3 .726 1
s4 -.911 -.945 1
s5 -.946 -.465 .729 1
s6 .487 -.247 -.083 -.743 1
s7 .997 .778 -.941 -.918 .417 1
Pearson CorrelationsSurvival-Growth
s2 s3 s4 s5 s6 s7
g2 1 -.704 .898 .956 -.514 -.994
g3 .496 -.957 .810 .189 .516 -.563
g4 -.41 -.925 .75 .094 .597 -.481
g5 .571 -.149 -.182 -.806 .995 .505
g6 -0.017 -.7 .428 -.307 .865 -.096
0.5,0.001
0.5,0.010.5,0.2
The beta distribution
Key distributions for vital rates
Key distributions for vital rates The beta distribution
Lognormal
rep 1994
600
500
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100
0
Std. Dev = 130.13 Mean = 73.6N = 1058.00
Stretched Beta
rep 1994
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Std. Dev = 130.13 Mean = 73.6N = 1058.00
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.50
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0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.50
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0 1 2 3 4 5 60
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Matrix selection
Element selection
Vital rate selection