biofuels for transport: global potentials & implications for development suzanne hunt worldwatch...
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BBiofuels for Transport:iofuels for Transport: Global Potentials & Implications Global Potentials & Implications
for Developmentfor Development
Suzanne HuntSuzanne HuntWorldwatch Worldwatch
InstituteInstitute
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BIOFUELS FOR TRANSPORTATION: BIOFUELS FOR TRANSPORTATION: GLOBAL POTENTIAL AND GLOBAL POTENTIAL AND
IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY IN THE AGRICULTURE AND ENERGY IN THE
21ST CENTURY21ST CENTURY
Funded by the Funded by the German Ministry of Food, German Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Consumer Protection Agriculture, and Consumer Protection
May 16May 16thth Release Release June 7June 7thth Capital Hill Event Capital Hill Event
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Cellulosic Biofuels Potential ProjectionsCellulosic Biofuels Potential Projections
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
En
erg
y (E
xajo
ule
s p
er y
ear)
WEC ED
IIASA-WEC A3
IIASA-WEC C1
IIASA-WEC C2
IIASA-WEC A1
IIASA-WEC B
IIASA-WEC A2
FFES
GCAM
Swisher Max
Swisher Pract
U.S. EPA SCWP
U.S. EPA RCWP
Særensen
Særensen alt.EstimateRIGES
LESS (BI andIMAGE)BATTJES BF1
BATTJES BF2
GLUE Practical
GLUE Ultimate
Fischer 2050 (low)
Fischer 2050 (high)
DESSUS
SHELL SG
SHELL DM
SRES A1
SRES B1
Source: Berndes et al.
Global primary energy consumption, 2005
A Review of 13 Studies on Biomass Potential, 2010–2100A Review of 13 Studies on Biomass Potential, 2010–2100
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Cellulosic Biofuels Potential Cellulosic Biofuels Potential Theoretically HugeTheoretically Huge
Germany: 25% petroleum displacement by 2030 with home grown cellulosic biofuels, (even with strict conservation priorities)
U.S.: 30% of our petroleum displacement 2030
A U.S. city of 1 million people generates enough municipal solid waste to produce 150 million liters of ethanol
Energy crop breeding: yields could double or triple after they benefit from focused breeding efforts
Waste bagasse at sugar cane mills could double ethanol yields; with harvesting of leaves and tips, ethanol yields could triple
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Near to Medium TermNear to Medium Term
Current generation fuels likely to Current generation fuels likely to dominatedominate
Developing countries well situated Developing countries well situated for sugar and oilseed production for sugar and oilseed production • Sugar cane is uniquely productiveSugar cane is uniquely productive
Country/region specific analyses are Country/region specific analyses are needed to assess appropriate crops, needed to assess appropriate crops, policies, investment levels, etc. policies, investment levels, etc.
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Biofuel Yields of Selected Ethanol Biofuel Yields of Selected Ethanol
and Biodiesel Feedstockand Biodiesel Feedstock
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Barley Wheat Corn Sugar beet Sugarcane
Soybean Castorbeans
Sunflowerseed
Rapeseed Jatropha Palm oil
Lite
rs p
er H
ecta
re
S o u rc e : F u lto n e t a l.
Ethanol Feedstock
Biodiesel Feedstock
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Convential Biofuels – Limiting Convential Biofuels – Limiting FactorsFactors
High food and feed pricesHigh food and feed prices
• rapeseed oil and sugar pricesrapeseed oil and sugar prices Other competing usesOther competing uses
• BiomaterialsBiomaterials Expansion of cropland onto sensitive areasExpansion of cropland onto sensitive areas
• Brazilian cerrado; rainforests in Indonesia and Brazilian cerrado; rainforests in Indonesia and Malaysia; Conservation Reserve lands in the U.S.Malaysia; Conservation Reserve lands in the U.S.
Overstressed water suppliesOverstressed water supplies
• Fossil aquifers in northern China, across India, and Fossil aquifers in northern China, across India, and the western corn/soy belt in the U.S.the western corn/soy belt in the U.S.
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Developing World PotentialDeveloping World Potential Large biomass potential in the developing worldLarge biomass potential in the developing world
• Latin America, Caribbean, & Sub-Saharan AfricaLatin America, Caribbean, & Sub-Saharan Africa Potential to substitute for expensive oil importsPotential to substitute for expensive oil imports
• Indonesia, $14 billion in oil subsidies in 2005, or about a Indonesia, $14 billion in oil subsidies in 2005, or about a third of government expendituresthird of government expenditures
• Similar situations are found in much of AfricaSimilar situations are found in much of Africa
• The Caribbean in 2002, petroleum products represented an The Caribbean in 2002, petroleum products represented an average of 93% of total consumption average of 93% of total consumption
Diversify energy portfoliosDiversify energy portfolios Attract foreign investmentAttract foreign investment Potential suppliers of biofuels to the global market Potential suppliers of biofuels to the global market
• e.g. much of Africae.g. much of Africa
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Achieving This PotentialAchieving This Potential Priority given to meeting domestic needsPriority given to meeting domestic needs
• Export opportunities can be explored that would Export opportunities can be explored that would serve to co-finance production for local needsserve to co-finance production for local needs
Development impact maximization Development impact maximization
• Farmer ownershipFarmer ownership
• Job creationJob creation Strong environmental and social protections, rule Strong environmental and social protections, rule
of law, and governance of law, and governance Country/region specific analyses are needed to Country/region specific analyses are needed to
assess appropriate crops, policies, investment assess appropriate crops, policies, investment levels, etc.levels, etc.
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Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts
Physical potential hugePhysical potential huge Matter of policy Matter of policy Peak oil, spare capacity, China’s cars Peak oil, spare capacity, China’s cars
and America's SUVsand America's SUVs Role of Brazil and its experienceRole of Brazil and its experience
• Especially in sugar producing countriesEspecially in sugar producing countries Role of the WBG: global funding of Role of the WBG: global funding of
knowledge transferknowledge transfer
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