bio(diverse)city

crisis scenario: climate change

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

climate change

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

(UNFCCC.)

a change of climate which is attributed directly or

indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of

the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural

climate variability observed over comparable time periods

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

since 1900 the average global temperature has increased by 0.6oC

1998 has been the warmest year since temperature recording began in 1861, whilst the 1990s were the warmest decade globally

increased concentration of greenhouse gases as a result of human activity are substantially responsible for driving climate change

(National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007)

increase in the number of heat waves

warming of oceans

retreat of glaciers and sea ice

rise in sea level of 10-20 cm

increase of heavy rainfall in many regions

fewer frosts

climate changeglobal

since 1910…

both maximum and minimum temperatures have increased, particularly since the mid 20th century, possibly due to post war industrialisation

all of Australia recorded an increase in overnight temperatures

annual total rainfall has shown a weak increase, especially in tropical areas and in eastern NSW

(National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007)

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

Variations of Australian mean temperatures, 1910-2000source: Karoly and Braganza 2004, Journal of ClimateAustralia's inconvenient truth ACF

The 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1994

during the last ice age the global average temperature was only 5 degrees cooler than today

ACF

1951 post war industrialization

climate changeaustralia

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

The 2003 drought cost 70,000 jobs, $13 billion and cut 1.6% off GDP ACF

Higher inland temperature are likely to cause more bushfires

Australia's inconvenient truth ACF

climate changeaustralia

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

there has already been an increase of 0.7degrees over the last 100 yearsCSIRO

change in rainfall patterns have increased salinity and decreased soil fertility in the SW wheat belt

Diamond. J

Australias rainfall over the past fifty-four years. the darkest red areas indicate losses of more than 50mm of rain per decade, while the darkest blue have gained a similar amount. over the past half-century this equates to a 250mm increase or deficit

national

all of Australia's major cities and most of our productive agricultural land have received less rain because of climate change.

Flannery, T.

climate changeaustralia

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

predicted impacts

most of Australia will warm by 0.4 – 2.0oC by 2030, and 1.0 - 6oC by 2070

annual rainfall will generally decrease in the south and east, whilst inland and coastal eastern areas will experience wetter summers

evaporation will increase annually and for all seasons

average decreases in annual water balance are protected to range from about 40 to 120mm per degree of global warming

extreme rainfall and tropical cyclones more intense

CSIRO, National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007

Up to 1 degree change

70% increase in droughts in NSWAustralian snow cover shrinks by 10-40%

ACF

1-2 degree change

40% loss of core habitat for eucalyptus and 100%of Acacia species eliminated in SW Australia

2-3 degree changetotal devastation of the Great Barrier Reef due to coral bleaching

80% of kakadu wetland lost

3-4 degree change

48% less water flow in the Murray Darling Basin

50% of the 65 species unique to the wet tropics will become extinct.

4-5 degree change

60-90% loss of core habitat for Victoria and tropical mountains

50% of the 65 species unique 180 days a year above 35 degrees in South Australia and Northern Territory

above 5 degree change

90-100% loss of core habitat for most Australian vertebrates

Dengue fever transmission zone could reach Brisbane and Sydney Stern Review

climate change + biodiversityaustralia

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

modeling climate change from emissions to impact- (simplification as, in the real climate-human system, there will be feedbacks between many links in the chain)Stern Review

co2 emissions

as a result of human activities, such as land clearing

natural process

the earth is in a constant state of change

combination

human activity has accelerated the rate of change

climate change + biodiversitycatalysts

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

bleaching events more frequent and severe

one in every four species spend a part of its life in a coral reef

.45 degree increase of sea surface temperature

carbon dioxide reducing rates of coral calcification

income of $1 billion annually in direct value

1.6 million tourists visit the great barrier reef region each year

(National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007)

(Flannery, T., Weather Makers)http://www.reef.crc.org.au/publications/

techreport/pdf/Harriott46.pdf

climate change + biodiversitythe great barrier reef

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

pollination carried out by insects and birds is roughly valued at $3 billion Archer. M

Stern review

economic value

Shoalhaven River Dam

by opting for water price reforms and public education aimed at reducing water usage, sydney has been able to postpone the building of the Shoalhaven River Dam, saving hundreds of millions of dollars and indirectly reducing loss of biodiversity

the Aus native forests provide environmental benefits estimated to have the value of

$14 billion Archer. M

the cost of acting later rather than now will be 5 -20 times greater

climate change + biodiversitysydney

impacts on biodiversity

reductions in the geographic range of species

changes to the timing of species lifecycles

changes in population dynamics and survival

changes in the location of species habitat, however as a result of urban development the opportunity for species to relocate is greatly diminished

loss of habitat with raised sea levels and more frequent flood events

increases in the risk of extinction for species that are already vulnerable

increased opportunity for exotic pioneer species

(National Biodiversity and Climate Change Action Plan, 2007)

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

climate change + biodiversitysydney

how old will you be?

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

by 2030 + 2 degrees

70% increase in droughts in NSW

40% loss of core habitat for eucalyptus

cane toads and red ants have invaded sydney threatening agriculture and native ecosystems

rapid extinction of birds

16% increase in evaporation

decreased rainfall by 10% annually

sea level rise of 2m

serious decline of wetland ecosystems

invasion of exotic plant species

extreme disturbance to breeding patterns

as sea temperature rises, we will experience more

severe storms

I WILL BE 44 YEARS OLD

matthew coggan, rosanna krauss, catherine wilson

“Make the wrong choices now and future generations will live with a

changed climate, depleted resources and without green space and

biodiversity that contribute to our standard of living and our quality of life.”

Tony Blair, March 2005

by 2070 + 6 degrees I WILL BE 84 YEARS OLD

48% less water flow in the Murray Darling Basin

90-100% loss of core habitat for most Australian vertebrates

dengue fever transmission zone could reach Brisbane and Sydney Stern Review

melting of ice caps minimum sea level increase of 5.5m Gore, A