bill ralph, r.k. johns & associates
TRANSCRIPT
R. K. Johns & Associates, Inc.
Panel Discussion:Panel Discussion:Projected Impacts on Regional BusinessProjected Impacts on Regional Businessfrom the Expansion of the Panama Canalfrom the Expansion of the Panama Canal
Bill RalphApril 19, 2010
Hyatt Regency Sarasota
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Agenda & Speakers:
• Start the panel discussion with some Panama Canal current events (thanks to the Canal Authority!) and share my thoughts on the expansion’s impact on U.S. trade, ships & ports
• Introduce our starting lineup of panel experts:
• Encourage audience participation
David L. McDonald PPM®Port Manatee Executive Director
Franc J. PignaManaging DirectorAegir Port Property Advisers
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U.S. Container Port Review
Source: AAPA, and individual ports
% chg.10-Year % chg. Jan-Feb
1999 2009 CAGR '09 vs '08 '10 vs '091 Los Angeles 3,829 6,749 5.8% -14% 10%2 Long Beach 4,408 5,068 1.4% -22% 17%3 NY/NJ 2,829 4,561 4.9% -13% 11%4 Savannah 793 2,357 11.5% -10% 20%5 Oakland 1,664 2,051 2.1% -8% 7%6 Houston 1,031 1,797 5.7% flat 10%7 Hampton Roads 1,307 1,745 2.9% -16% 11%8 Seattle 1,490 1,583 0.6% -7% 33%9 Tacoma 1,271 1,546 2.0% -17% -17%
10 Charleston 1,483 1,181 -2.2% -28% na
Top 10 U.S. Ports Container Volume, 1999-2009(in 000 TEU, including loads & empties)
12 of 19 ports that report monthly info to AAPA show an increase in 2010
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All-Water Coastal Sharesof North Asia – U.S. Trade
(000 TEU)
839 15%
4,699 85%
East Coast West Coast
157 2%
9,458771%
3,6493 27%
2000 2009
Gulf Coast
1,050 3%
29,500 66%
13,900 31%
Source: R. K. Johns
2030
• Key assumption: cargo goes to the consumer in the most efficient, cost effective way the retailer can achieve with the growing use of local distribution centers
• 30% of the US population (=consumer spending) is located within one state of the Eastern seaboard
• Assuming East coast ports & Panama Canal are prepared, carriers & their customers will bring the containers all-water
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David L. McDonald PPM®Port Manatee Executive Director
Franc J. PignaManaging DirectorAegir Port Property Advisers
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Thank you !
Bill RalphR. K. Johns & Associates226 Chestnut St. Roselle Park [email protected]