bigair's jason ashton at commsday summit 2014
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TRANSCRIPT
We use the air,to improve your network
COMMSDAY SUMMIT 2014
Wireless Session
Presenter: Jason Ashton8 April 2014
Introduction
Reflecting on the last 20 years
Spectrum regulation
Wireless trends
NBN - where to from here
Today’s agenda
Celebrating 20 years
You could connect to the Internet at 14.4Kbps (or 28.8Kbps if bleeding edge)
Telstra was still called Telecom Australia for domestic services
Mobile phones were becoming portable
twenty years agoAARNET had recently upgraded the entire Australian “Internet” from 1.5Mbps to 4.5Mbps
Celebrating 20 years
twenty years ago
A company called Netscape released a web browser
and Amazon.com looked a little different
Cisco acquired a little known company, Kalpana, that produced ethernet switches
Celebrating 20 years
twenty years ago
10Mbps ethernet cards had dropped to around the $100 mark
You could order a pizza online
and play games online too using a modem
Spectrum Regulation
Has spectrum policy fostered competition?
Spectrum charges continue to escalate despite
-
● 15 years of deflationary pricing for
Internet access
● Regulated fixed line charges
continuing to decline
Our spectrum costs are some of the highest
globally
● eg. in USA the FCC charges less than
Aus for an apparatus license and they
include the entire band (all
polarisations) at no additional cost
(effectively 50-75% cheaper versus
Australia).
➔ Spectrum Auctions are designed to maximise financial returns for the
Government of the day
◆ LMDS (28GHz/31GHz) - AAPT paid $66m in 1999
◆ 3.5GHz (FWA/WiMAX) - Unwired paid $100m in 2000
◆ 2.3GHz (MMDS) - Austar invested $183m in 2000
➔ These auctions prevented meaningful competition and delivered
limited commercial application until very recently. We need spectrum
licenses to have a “use it or lose it” clause
➔ Non-financial outcomes are often more important
Spectrum Regulation
➔ Opportunity to create spectrum parks
◆ Registration of devices
◆ Harmonisation of use
➔ WiFi is the best example of what is possible with this approach
➔ More focus is needed on efficient use of spectrum by Govt (eg. Dept
of Defence)
Spectrum Regulation
“When the commission did unlicensed spectrum for the first time, thirty years ago, no one knew what it would lead to. It was a platform for innovation and it led to these cool things: cordless phones, baby monitors, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi. And so another potential big idea is a new generation of unlicensed spectrum with much better propagation characteristics. I believe will lead to a whole new generation of innovation”
Julius Genachowski, Former Chairman FCC
Wireless trends
Microwave◆ 10Gbps +◆ self aligning;◆ minimal footprint◆ super low cost
WiFi◆ 802.11ac◆ 802.11ad
Mobile◆ LTE -> LTE Advanced◆ 5G (beyond 2020
mobile communications technologies)
"It is dangerous to put limits on wireless"Guglielmo Marconi (1932)
Where to from here?
Lessons learned since 1994
● Telstra remains the only substantial network outside metro
● Alternative DSLAM infrastructure does not represent real alternative
infrastructure (it still runs over Telstra copper)
● Alternative fiber infrastructure (eg. PIPE, Vocus, Amcom) is largely
limited to lucrative inner city business markets
● The opportunity for alternative wireless infrastructure has been
frustrated by policy in several areas:
● ACMA spectrum access and allocation policy
● Land access notice policy (Schedule 3)
● State land administration policy
NBN - where to from here
Infrastructure based competition has failed, but why?
● Lack of competitive backhaul [its not possible to buy expensive
backhaul and deliver a viable alternative last mile network]
● The failure to declare backhaul services has limited innovation
in the access layer
● Despite this NBN has 121 points of interconnect creating a
structural barrier to entry for new competitors
● Intercapital (longhaul) backhaul is limited to just 4 players in a
rapidly consolidating market … will it be 3 players soon?
NBN - impact of 4G/LTE/5G?
“the obvious consumer preference for wireless that is often ignored by technology determinists will ensure that 5G becomes a very dangerous ‘complement’ in terms of NBN ARPUs and share of wallet.
5G will not obviate the need for more fibre in the network. However, it will not be your grandfather’s “shared and congested” wireless, given the antenna theory behind 5G essentially mimics a point-to-point network.”
Grahame Lynch, Communications Day, 15th May 2013
NBN - why not go mobile?
● Regional Fixed wireless rollout could be redesigned as
wholesale only 4G mobile network
● Delivering the dual benefits of improved broadband access
along with better regional mobile coverage
● 98% coverage guarantee imposed to ensure economic benefits
● Much stronger business case
● Optus, Vodafone & MVNOs
Thank you