bg thi truong tien te viet nam 08.2012.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
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TH TRNG TIN TVIT NAM
Trnh by: Nguyn c Mu
Thng 8 nm 2012
Th trng tin t Vit Nam
Ni dungNhngvncbncathtrngtint
Th trngtintVit Nam
Mtsbtcpcathtrngtint
Vit Nam
Nguyn nhn
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Nhng vn c bn ca thtrng tin t
Khi nim
Chc nng
Cng c
Thnh vin th trng Phng thc hot ng
nhnghaiu 9 khon 2 Lut Ngn hng Nh nc quy
nh: Th trngtint l thtrngvnngnhn,ni mua, bn cc giyt c gi ngnhn, bao gmtn phiu kho bc, tn phiu NHNN, chngchtingi v cc giyt c gi (GTCG) ngnhn khc.
Tnm 2004, NHNN cho php sdngc GTCGdi hn trong giao dchnghipvthtrngm.
Nhng vn c bn ca thtrng tin t
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Chc nng ca th trng tin tL knh ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam
thc hin chnh sch tin t quc gia
Chuyn vn tm thi nhn ri n ni thiu
vn, c sut sinh li cao
Nhng vn c bn ca thtrng tin t
Nhng vn c bn ca thtrng tin t
Cc cng c giao dch trn th trngTn phiu kho bc
Tn phiu NHNN
Hp ng mua li
Cc loi giy t c gi ngn hn khc
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Nhng vn c bn ca thtrng tin t
Thnh vin tham gia thtrngtintVitNam
NHNN
Tchc tn dng (ngn hng thngmi, cng tyti chnh, cng ty cho thu ti chnh, khc)
Doanh nghip
Chnh ph, chnh quynaphng
C nhn
Nhng vn c bn ca thtrng tin t
Phng thchotngGiao dchtrctiphoc gin tip
Phng tin giao dch: inthoi, fax, hthng giao dchint.
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Th trng tin t Vit Nam
Th trng ni t lin ngn hng
Th trng giy t c gi
Th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng
Th trng hp ng mua li
Th trng ni t lin ngn hng
Thnh phn tham gia: T chc tn dng, chyu l cc ngn hng thng mi Mc chm bo d tr bt buc
D tr bt bucQun l DTBB ca NHNN
m bo thanh khonKhch hng rt tinGii ngn.
Kinh doanh vn tm thi nhn ri
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Th trng ni t lin ngn hng
Cs hnh thnh giao dchCnc vo xphngnib: cphnmc
giao dch cho i tc.Hnmc:
Tnh cam kt: huht l hnmc khng cam ktTn chp: khng c ti snmbo
Tchc giao dch: Phi tp trung OTC
Th trng ni t lin ngn hng
Gi c Li sut do hai bn tha thun: hnh thnh trn c s quan h cung
cu, quan h i tc, xp hng Ty thuc k hn: thng thng ngn hn thp hn di hn. Gi bui sng khc bui chiu. L giao dch OTC: Cng 1 k hn c nhiu mc gi trn th trng.
K hn Qua m, 1 tun, 2 tun, 1 thng, 2 thng, 3 thng. Hu ht l di 3
thng.
Phng thc giao dch in thoi, fax hp ng. S dng h thng Reuters dealing
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Th trng giy t c gi
Tn phiu kho bcTh trng s cp:Li sut, s lng pht hnh do B Ti chnh,
Tng Gim c Kho bc quyt nh
K hn: 364, 273, 182 v 91 ngyLu k: ti NHNN
Th trng giy t c gi
Tn phiu kho bcTh trng th cpHu ht cc ngn hng mua Tn phiu Kho bc
c xu hng gi ti khi o hn, him c giaodch mua bn li gia cc ngn hng
Cc ngn hng s dng Tn phiu Kho bc tham gia Th trng m.
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Th trng giy t c gi
Tn phiu ngn hng nh nc Li sut: do NHNN quyt nh ph hp vi mc tiu thc hin
chnh sch tin t K hn: 7, 14, ..35, 42, 91, 182, 273 hoc 364 ngy Thnh phn tham gia: TCTD Li sut: Do NHNN cng b ph hp vi mc tiu iu hnh
chnh sch tin t quc gia
Hnh thc tham gia:iu kin thng thng: T nguyn Khi NHNN thc hin chnh sch tin t tht cht: Bt buc
Thc t: hiu qu s dng cng c ny khng cao do t TCTDmua c tr trng hp bt buc
Th trng giy t c gi
NHNN thc hin ti chit khu, ti cp vn chocc TCTD:Chit khu, ti chit khu giy t c gi
Hng qu NHNN cp hn mc cho TCTD cn c vo: Vniu l, d n cho vay nn kinh t, d n cho vay lnh vcnng nghip, mc tiu ca chnh sch tin t quc gia, khoch cung tin
K hn: khng qu 91 ngyLi sut: Li sut ti chit khu do NHNN cng bHnh thc: chit khu k hn cn li hoc chit khu c k
hnThc t: Hn mc cp thng nh, t gia nm 2008:
khng cp.
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Th trnggiyt c gi
NHNN thc hin ti chit khu, ti cp vn chocc TCTD
Ti cp vn cho TCTDCho vay thu chi qua m trong hot ng thanh ton in
t: TCTD s dng GTCG ( lu k NHNN) m bo
cho khon vayCho vay c m bo bng cm c chng t c gi
Li sut thng cao hn li sut trn th trng m
K hn cho vay di hn k hn trn th trng m
Thc tin ca hnh thc ny:
Th trnggiyt c gi
Th trng m Thnh vin tham gia: NHNN, TCTD
iu kin tham gia: L thnh vin th trng m Th tc ng k n giniu kin tham gia: Phi nm gi nhiu GTCG
Phng tin giao dch: qua mng Phng thc u thu:
Li sut S lng
Thi hn thanh ton: c rt ngn xung (T+0) t (T+2)
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Th trnggiyt c gi
Phin ugi
Loi giao dch Khn(ngy)
Khilng trngthu (t VND)
Li sut trng
thu (%)
25-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 14
25-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 1,000 14
26-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 14
26-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 1,000 14
27-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 14
27-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 1,000 14
28-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 14
28-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 1,000 14
29-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 14
29-Jul-11 Reverse Repo 7 1,000 14
Source: Reuters
Th trng mHng ha giao dch:Tn phiu kho bcTn phiu ngn hng Nh ncTri phiu chnh phTri phiu cng trnh trung ngCng tri
Tri phiu Ngn hng Pht trinTri phiu chnh quyn a phng do UBND thnh ph
H Ni v TPHCM pht hnh
Th trng giy t c gi
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Th trnggiyt c gi
Th trng m T l chnh lch gia gi tr giy t c gi ti thi im nh
gi v gi thanh ton trong giao dch mua, bn c k hn giaNHNN v TCTD:i vi: TPKB, TPNHNN, TPCP, TPCTTW, CT:
Di 1 nm: 0% T 1 nm n 5 nm: 5% T 5 nm n 10 nm: 10%
T trn 10 nm tr ln: 15%
Tri phiu Ngn hng Pht trin: 20% Tri phiu chnh quyn a phng do UBND thnh ph H Ni
v TPHCM pht hnh: 30%
Th trng giy t c gi
Th trng m T l giao dch ca cc loi GTCG: Tri phiu NHPT v TP
chnh quyn a phng c php giao dch theo t l ti akhng qu 50% tng gi tr ca mi phin giao dch th trngm
Mc ch tham gia th trng m ca TCTD: Thanh khon Kinh doanh: vay NHNN vi li sut trn th trng m, cho vay li
TCTD khc hng chnh lch li sut.
iu hnh th trng m ca NHNN phn nhiu l Cung tin.Vic Rt tin qua th trng m (c ch th trng) cn chamnh.
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Chng ch tin gi Bn cht: l cng c n khng c m bo c pht hnh
bi cc TCTDiu kin c pht hnh:
Kt qu kinh doanh Phng n s dng vn
K hn:
Ngn hng: Di 1 nm: bo co Trn 1 nm: Phi xin php
TCTD khc: ch c pht hnh CD c k hn trn 1 nmGiao dch th cp: Khng ph bin
Th trng giy t c gi
Thnh phn tham gia: NHNN, TCTD Chc nng
NHNN: m bo d tr ngoi t, phc v yu cu thanh ton cakhch hng,
Gi kt thc giao dch: (cut off times): theo khu vc a l ca ccng tin: JPY trc VND 2 h, EUR. USD.
Cng c: Thc hin chnh sch tin t thng qua cc bin phpnhm n nh t gi, tc ng n tng cung tin TCTD: p ng nhu cu thanh khon cc loi ngoi t ngoi VND,
Mua bn ngoi t: giao ngay, k hn Giao dch vay, gi Eurodollar: qua m, k hn. Hp ng hon i ngoi t: Lu : giao dch SWAP gia NHNN v
TCTD: tc ng n tng cung tin.
Th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng
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Cng ty CKNh u t:Hnh thc: mi cng ty mt kiu hp ng
Chng khon repo: Trc nm 2009
T u 2009: c phiu nim yt blue chip hoc c
phiu OTC c thanh khon cao nh: Eximbank, MBThi hn: thng l ngn hn, khng qu 6
thng
Li sut: cao!!!???
Th trngHpng mua li
Vai tr ca NHNN: NHNN cn thc hin dt khot v r rng chc nng ngi
cho vay cui cng trong mi thi im Li sut ch o phi v cht: phi l nh hng v theo
st th trng Can thip iu hnh chnh sch tin t phi v lng:
Lng tin cung hoc rt qua th trng m; Lng ngoi t bn ra can thip vo th trng ngoi hi.
Cc cng c ti cp vn, ti chit khu: thc hin cha lin tcv nht qun, th tc cn nng th cng
MtsbtcpcathtrngtintVit Nam
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Mt s bt cp ca th trng tint Vit Nam
Vai tr ca NHNN:iu hnh chnh sch tin t vn s dng cng c trc tip: t
l tng trng tn dng. Cng c gin tip vn cha thc s lm tng s ph thuc
vo NHNN ca TCTD. Cng c tc ng gy nh hngmnh v nhanh l: DTBB & Tn phiu NHNN bt buc. Cccng th trng m, ti cp vn: nhiu ngn hng hu nh
khng s dng Nn c c ch cho vay qua m vi TCTD cng nh thc
hin giao dch th trng m vi k hn qua m.
MtsbtcpcathtrngtintVit Nam
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1/1/2010
3/1/2010
5/1/2010
7/1/2010
9/1/2010
11/1/2010
1/1/2011
3/1/2011
5/1/2011
7/1/2011
Rate
Monetary policy rate
Discount rate
Base rate
Refinancing rate
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Mt s bt cp ca th trng tint Vit Nam
TCTD Tp qun giao dch cha ng nht Qun l iu ha ngun vn trong cc TCTD cha tt: khi
tha khi thiu. Lin kt gia cc TCTD khng tt. Khi th trng thiu thanh
khon: c xu hng phng th. Lin kt yu gia cc TCTDdn n kh nng chng vi khung hong km
Tnh thi v ca th trng tin t Vit Nam kh cao(Tt dng lch, m lch, np thu)
Thanh khon ca th trng khng n nh: lc thacng tha, lc thiu cng thiu
Nguyn nhn
Th trng vn km pht trin: n nay TCTDvn m ng vai tr quan trng nht trongvic cung cp vn cho nn kinh t
Tp qun th trng v k hn gi tin, thanhton, gi giao dch cui cng (cut off times).
Hot ng tn dng cha theo kp chun mcquc t: tr n vay trc hn,
Khung php l cha hon chnh, ng b Cha c tp qun giao dch chun cho th
trng: code of conduct
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Nguyn nhn
Cha hnh thnh benchmark v li sut chun cho thtrng, ng cong li sut (yield curve) cha c
Chnh sch ti kha v chnh sch tin t nhiu thiim phi hp cha tt
Li sut c bn c n nh trn c s no?? Vai tr ca ngi to lp th trng khng c hoc m
nht (ngi to lp th trng cn c s h trmnh ca NHNN) Tnh minh bch ca cc t chc tham gia th trng
km: bo co ti chnh theo chun mc, c ch & kcng b thng tin
Nguyn nhn
Cha c cc cng ty xp hng tn nhim (S&P, Moody,Fitch..) Kh xp hng tn nhim, nh gi ri ro i tc Khng xp hng c GTCG : kh nh gi trong giao dch
Khng c c s pht trin th trng thng phiu(commercial paper) Cng c quan trng ca th trng tin t cc nn kinh t
ln, c bit l Hoa K L u mi to nn s lin thng vi th trng vn
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Nguyn nhn
Cng c ca th trng cn ngho nn: Bankersacceptance ? Commercial Paper?...
K hn ca cc cng c th trng tin t cha adng, c bit l Tn phiu kho bc: cha c k hnngn nh: 1 thng, 2 thng..
NHNN hn ch t l cho vay cm c GTCG Lu k chng khon mi trong giai on u
Ni thc hin lu k: NHNN, Trung tm lu k (Cng ty CK,NH lu k)
Vic mapping.