beyond recession?: sustainable urban development tim dixon: oisd, oxford brookes university
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Beyond recession?: sustainable urban development Tim Dixon: OISD, Oxford Brookes University. Integrated sustainable urban development. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Integrated sustainable urban development
“An integrated plan for sustainable urban development comprises a system of interlinked actions which seeks to bring about a lasting improvement in the economic, physical, social and environmental conditions of a city or an area within the city” (URBACT, 2010)
Interacting Forces
“The two defining challenges of the 21st century are overcoming poverty and avoiding dangerous climate change. If we fail on one of them we fail on the other.” (Nicholas Stern)
Economy
Energy Environment
Recovery Matrix (Sato, 2010)Economy (firms and
labour market) Society (People) Place/Environment
Short-terma. Credit b. Recession
Filling the gap in credit for firms (e.g. Lyon – sale and leaseback of land) Bringing forward public investment and expenditure (eg. Spanish Local Authorities)Short term working arrangements (Germany, Duisberg)Subsidising existing jobs and sectors Creating temporary jobs and training (Intermediate Labour Markets (UK), Work Integration Coops (Germany), Type B Coops (Italy)
Debt advice and support. Tax and rate cutsMinimum income supportAdvice and support for housing, heating, transport, basic services.Integration policies. Building resilience and insulation from recession.
Public-public financial instrumentsTake advantage of lower land and property pricesProtect/bring forward key regeneration projectsProtect basic servicesDelay, cut back non essentialsEnvironmental Pilots
Long- term(Positioning the city in the face of long term global shifts)Examples: Transition Cities, Slow Cities, Mayors Covenant, WWF One Planet Living.
Creating the conditions and investing in sustainable activities (e.g. green, health, care, education, knowledge, culture)Training in the skills required for sustainable activities.Support for innovation in these activities
More equalityShifts in consumption and saving patterns Shifts in use of time and work-life balance
Sustainable building, transport, energy, water and waste
Low CarbonEconomy
and Green Jobs
Short Term
Long Term
BRIC-led economic recovery? Economic growth in
BRIC countries Brazil
Structural reforms (fiscal & institutional)
Prospect of 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics
Booming residential sector
Increasing middle class
Infrastructure is poor
0
50
100
150
200
250
Top 8 emerging economy and Top 8 advanced economy cities
% c
umul
ativ
e re
al G
DP
grow
th: 2
008-
25
Source: PwC, 2009
Cumulative GDP Growth2008-2025 (megacities)
City-level carbon emissions and energy consumption
Cities account for about 80% of carbon emissions globally. Consumption and not population growth is important (Satthethwaite) Middle and upper-income households are key
Futures studies – the role of the city (key drivers) Demographics Economic Governance Environmental Societal (lifestyle) Technological
City Scale Focus – why?
Existing powers of municipal and city governments give greater potential traction
Concentration means better technological potential
More rapid diffusion Spin-off benefits (source, Lankao, 2008)
Towards ‘Regenerative Development’
Time
IntegratedSustainability
Business asUsualToday
(Source: adapted from Ministry of Environment, NZ Government)
Eco-Efficiency5+ yrs
RegenerativeDevelopment:
40+ yrs
‘ParadigmShift’
The City as a‘Metabolism’
World Bank Eco2 Programme
City-based approach Expanded platform for
collaborative design and decision-making
One-system approach Investment framework
that values sustainability and resilience
‘Ecological modernization’ issues??
Low Carbon Economy
A future vision for low carbon infrastructure
Need for private investment and balance between public/private debt
Stronger market signals for carbon emissions
UK Core Cities
Public Debt (% of GDP)
UK=68.5%
Brazil=46.8%
Source: CIA
Financing Issues: an Investment Gap?
Cities the problem and the solution? –shift expenditure
Need to develop innovative financing models to retrofit cities: e.g. value capture; PPPs; ‘green’ bonds/funds
More local power and leadership capacity at city-level
Appropriate governance structures
Improved skills and technology deployment
‘BAU’=$350 trillionAdditional $22 trillion needed in greeninvestment (Booz / WWF, 2010)
Key Issues-to 2050? How will property markets in Brazilian cities evolve?
Real estate investment Nature of housing markets and demand: future growth and
development? Issue of brownfields
Ecological modernisation/sustainable urban development – does this model really fit Brazilian cities? How can climate change adaptation and mitigation be
financed? What are the outcomes for cities – governance, institutions
and impact on people? Learning from Brazilian cities?
Clean Development Mechanism Climate Action Plan (Sao Paulo) Others: grants/taxes?