bewhere finland – a comprehensive modelling approach for ... › ... › 2_karthik_1_ibw.pdf ·...

Karthikeyan Natarajan Doctoral student

School of Forest Sciences, UEF, Joensuu [email protected]

Supervisors Prof. Paavo Pelkonen, Dr. Sylvain Leduc School of Forest Sciences, International Institute for Applied University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu Systems Analysis (IIASA),Vienna

BeWhere Finland – A comprehensive modelling approach for sustainable bioenergy production in

Finland

Contents

•Background

•Bioenergy in Finland

•BeWhere Finland

•Model applications: FT-biodiesel production

•Future work

10.10.2013 2 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan

Background • 2020 Renewable energy targets of Finland:

– 38% renewable energy share (from 25% 2009 ) – 25.2 PJ / 20% minimum biofuel distribution requirement (double

counting) • National Renewable Energy Action Plan:

– 13.5 Mm3 forest chips use (from 6 Mm3 2009 )

10.10.2013 3

• Technological advancements (Fischer Tropsch biodiesel production) • Structural changes in the Finnish forest industry

1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan

10.10.2013 4

Different measures

• Incentives e.g, wood incentive per MWh electricity and linked with

CO2 price.

•Subsidies for small wood procurement eg. Thinning

•Mandatory blending % with fossil transport fuels

• Investment support for biomass based energy system installations

•Strong funding for energy research and development


Biomass based DH/CHP plants

10.10.2013 1st BeWhere Workshop / Natarajan 5

Large scale 50 - 500 MW

Medium scale 1 - 50 MW

Small scale 5 - 200 kW

Source: Dominik

10.10.2013 6

Fortum, Joensuu bio-oil plant

World’s first industrial-scale Integrated with CHP Capacity 50, 000 tonnes bio-oil Feedstock: woody biomass (300,000 m3 per year) Emissions: 70% compared to fossil fuels Investment cost: 30 million euros



Integrated biorefinery

Source: Mc Keough 2007

10.10.2013 8

Energy demand .transport fuel .district heating

Candidate sites

.close to biomass supply

.close to energy demand

.pulp & paper industry

.ports

Transport network .Road origin destination

++++++++++++ .Rail origin terminal destination

Biomass supply

Forest

Sawmill

Import

CHP

Pellet

Pulp mill

Bioenergy

Model results

1.plant no

2.optimal location

3.Size

4.biomass area

5.biomass share

6.biofuel sold

7.heat sold

8.electricity sold

9. minimized costs

a.biomass

b.transport

c.production

d.fuel station

10.biofuel cost

11.CO2 emissions

12.parameter sensitivity

13.biofuelblend

14.import &export

Constraints .biomass supply .production plant .energy demand .heat transport

Parameters .biofuel yield .heat yield .electricity yield .emission factor

Other costs .fossil fuel .heat price .electricity price

Bioenergy supply chain costs

Biomass Biomass transport

Production Biodiesel transport

Distribution

.harvesting

.forwarding

.chipping

.storage

.truck

.train .investment .operation & maintenance .interest rate

.truck

.train .fuel station

Biomass supply

Bioenergy production

Biofuel demand

Heat Demand

BeWhere Finland


10.10.2013 9

Eastern Finland - Model Scheme


Influence of CO2 cost on technology diffusion

and emission savings

10.10.2013 10

Optimal plant locations


Flow of Feedstock and energy


10.10.2013 12

Source: Thomas Gschwantner

Logging residues

Pulpwood

Sawwood

Sawmill residuals

Stumps and roots


Source: pic 2 and 4 are from Google

10.10.2013 13

Spatial distribution of feedstock resources


Transport Network


Energy demand


Scenarios for 2020 biofuel target

•Base Scenario •Feedstock availability

• Industrial competition

•Parameter costs and energy price


Results


Cost-optimal locations

•Five FTplants : Rovaniemi, Lapinjärvi, Rauma, Salo, Kauhava >130times •Minimised transportation

costs means abundant feedstock supply and high energy demand • Max heat transport distance


Cost breakdown of biodiesel production supply chain

10.10.2013 19

P1 P2 P3 P4 P5

M€

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140Forest biomass Sawmill residual Biomass transport Production

Biodiesel transport Distribution Heat income Electricity income


•P3 produces the cheapest biodiesel. •Unit cost varied between

22.15€/GJ and 22.49€/GJ without any by-product sales. 13%

8%

6%

49%

1% 7%

8% 8%

Biomass Cost

Sawmill ResidualsCostBiomass Transport

Production Cost

Biofuel Transport

Distribution Cost

Heat Income

Electricity Income

Biomass supply and feedstock resource allocation


Forest harvesting (%)

-20 0 20 40

Feed

stoc

k us

ed (P

J)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Energywood Sawmill residual

Industrial competition (%)

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Feed

stoc

k us

ed (P

J)

0

10

20

30

40

50


Costs and feedstock resource allocation


•30% decrease would completely substitute sawmill residuals •30% increase = 40% energy

wood + 51% pulpwood + 9% sawmill residuals •40% increase = pulpwood

replace energywood completely

Energywood cost (%)

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Feed

stoc

k us

ed (P

J)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Energywood Sawmill residual Pulpwood

10.10.2013 22



Maximum pulpwood utilization potential at -30%

SMR price no influence as maximum utilization potential is reached

Pulpwood cost (%)

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

Feed

stoc

k us

ed (P

J)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Energywood Sawmill residual Pulpwood

Sawmill residual cost (%)

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60F

eeds

tock

use

d (P

J)0

10

20

30

40

50


10.10.2013 23



•31 PJ of wood imports used when 40% decrease in cost •Cost changes in energywood,

pulpwood and sawmill residuals did not influence •Because:

– Expensive – Longer transport distance

Wood import cost (%)

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

Feed

stoc

k us

ed (P

J)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Energywood Sawmill residual Wood import

Influence of biofuel import price and fossil diesel price on the 2020 biofuel target


Biofuel import price (%)

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

2020

Bio

fuel

targ

et (P

J)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 FT-biodiesel production Biofuel import

Fossil diesel price (%)

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

2020

Bio

fuel

targ

et (P

J)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 FT-biodiesel production Fossil diesel consumption

Parameter sensitivity analysis


Parameter change (%)

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

Var

iatio

n of

FT-

biod

iese

l cos

t (%

)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Feedstock share Industrial demand Energywood cost Transport cost Investment cost Heat price Electricity price Plant size Conversion efficiency

Future work


Social

Environment Economy

Sustainability

Employment

LCA

Publications •Natarajan K, Leduc S, Pelkonen P, Tomppo E, Dotzauer E. Potential

expansion of second generation Fischer-Tropsch biodiesel industry in Finland. Renewable Energy 62 (2014) 319e330. • Natarajan K, Leduc S, Pelkonen P, Tomppo E, Dotzauer E. Optimal

Locations for Methanol and CHP Production in Eastern Finland. BioEnergy Research 2012;5:412-23.


• International Nordic Bioenergy Conference 2011, 5-9 September

2011, Jyväskylä, Finland. •World Bioenergy 2012, 29-31 May 2012, Jönköping, Sweden. •Nordic Wood Biorefinery Conference (NWBC) 2012, 23-25 October

2012, Helsinki, Finland

THANK YOU!

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