optimizing bioenergy supply chains: the bewhere model · optimizing bioenergy supply chains: the...
TRANSCRIPT
Optimizing bioenergy
supply chains:
the BeWhere model
P.Patrizio, S.Leduc, S.Mesfun, P.Yowargana, F.Kraxner
Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM)
Outline
• Background
• Model description
• Input data
• Example of case studies
• Online application
• Capacity building
2
Background
• Bioenergy is promoted as a key to reach the 2020
renewable targets
• Biofuels currently constitute the major option regarding
renewable energy in transport.
• Increased use of biofuels is not without complications:
uncertainties regarding CO2 mitigation potential and
issues related to ecosystem conservations
3
4
Background: Economy of Scale
Reference
systemDemandNew bioenergy
plants
Existing
industries
Biomass
Heat
& power
Transport fuel
Fossil fuel
Forest
industries
Biomass
import
Sawmill
residuals
Domestic
biomass
General BeWhere structure
Biofuel
Import
CHP
Optional flows
Existing flows
5
Environmental constraint
BeWhere Model
• Techno-economical model, geographic explicit
• Spatially explicit - 0.2 ˚ to 0.5˚grid cell
• Mixed integer linear program (GAMS)
• Static - yearly basis, with fluctuation of heat demand over the year
• Minimize the total cost of the whole supply chain for
the region’s welfare
min [ Cost + Emissions * (Carbon Tax) ]
• Does not maximize the profit of a plant6
BeWhere answers…
Size and locations
Technology mix
Biomass flow
Biofuel trade
Total costs and emissions
7
Economic incentives
Carbon penalty
RES potential
Economic potential
Policy tool
Input Data
Feedstock
Distribution
Production sites
Distribution
Demand
Availability
Location
Cultivating
costRoad network
Train network
Transport cost
Fossil fuel price
Emission factors
Technical param.
Setup costs
O&M costsRoad network
Train network
Energy-
infrastructure
Transport cost
Existing plantProtected areas
Heat
Transport
Electricity
8
GIS data: feedstock availability
9Karthikeyan et al. (2014)
GIS data: transport network
10Karthikeyan et al. (2014)
Techno-economic data
11
BeWhere Applications
12
BeWhere Applications
13
BeWhere Applications
14
BeWhere Applications
15
16
Forest resources
Crop residuals
Algae
MSW
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Biofuel
Heat
Power
Power to liquid/gas
Biogas
Fertilizers
Biochar
Co-firing
Ecosystem services
BECCSGeothermal
The BeWhere Umbrella
Electrobus
Results
17
Sweden: Biofuel production target 2 TWh/y 4 TWh/y 6 TWh/y
18Wetterlund et al. (2013)
Sweden: Ethanol Production Cost (€/GJ)
19Leduc (2009)
EU: Optimal methanol production
20Wetterlund et al. (2012)
Latest BeWhere Version
• Alpine regions:
- optimal localization of bioenergy production plants, solar PV plants, wind parks,
and hydropower stations
- Eco- system services protection
• EuropePlus (28 + Balkans regions)
- 18 technologies for heat/power and biofuel production
- 15 type of agricultural feedstock
• BECCS in INDONESIA
• Electro-bus in Stockholm:
- optimal distribution of charging infrastructure for electric bus
- exploring synergies with biofuels currently in use and different bus charging
technologies.
21
Alpine case study
22
National Park
Legend
National Park
DESIGN_ENG
National Park
National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion
National Park - Core Area
National Park - Integrale Reserve
Swiss National Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
National Park
DESIGN_ENG
National Park
National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion
National Park - Core Area
National Park - Integrale Reserve
Swiss National Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
National Park
DESIGN_ENG
National Park
National Park - Core Area
National Park - Integrale Reserve
National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion
Swiss National Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
23Serrano León et al. (2015)
Nature Reserve
Legend
Nature Reserve
DESIGN_ENG
National Nature Reserve
State Nature Reserve
Nature Reserve
Natural reserve
Regional/Provincial Nature Reserve
Regional Nature Reserve
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
Nature Reserve
DESIGN_ENG
National Nature Reserve
State Nature Reserve
Nature Reserve
Natural reserve
Regional/Provincial Nature Reserve
Regional Nature Reserve
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
National Park
DESIGN_ENG
National Park
National Park - Buffer zone/Area of adhesion
National Park - Core Area
National Park - Integrale Reserve
Swiss National Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
24Serrano León et al. (2015)
Natural Park
Legend
Natural Park
DESIGN_ENG
Nature Park
Regional Nature Park
Regional/Provincial Nature Park
Regional Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
Natural Park
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
25Serrano León et al. (2015)
Particular Protection
Legend
Particular Protection
DESIGN_ENG
Biosphere Park
Biosphere reserves
Biotope Protection Order
Dry Grasslands
Ecological Important Area
Emerald Sites
Federal Hunting Reserves
Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I*
Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of *
Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures *
Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa*
Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire*
Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and *
Fenlands of National Importance
Flora Protection Area
Forest Biological Reserve
Forest Reserve
Horticultural Monument
Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio*
Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur*
Landscape Park
Landscape Protection Area
Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo*
Mire Landscapes of National Importance
National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve
Natural Monument
Natural Monument or Site
Other Protected Natural Regional Areas
Particular protection
Protected Area
Protected Forest
Protected Habitat
Protected Landscape Section
Protected Natural Objects of local importance
Raised and Transitional Bogs of National Importan*
Rest Area
Sites for compensation of losses during use of us*
Specialy Protected Area
regional protected areas
special conservation areas
townscape protected area
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
26Serrano León et al. (2015)
Particular Protection
Legend
Particular Protection
DESIGN_ENG
Biosphere Park
Biosphere reserves
Biotope Protection Order
Dry Grasslands
Ecological Important Area
Emerald Sites
Federal Hunting Reserves
Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I*
Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of *
Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures *
Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa*
Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire*
Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and *
Fenlands of National Importance
Flora Protection Area
Forest Biological Reserve
Forest Reserve
Horticultural Monument
Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio*
Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur*
Landscape Park
Landscape Protection Area
Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo*
Mire Landscapes of National Importance
National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve
Natural Monument
Natural Monument or Site
Other Protected Natural Regional Areas
Particular protection
Protected Area
Protected Forest
Protected Habitat
Protected Landscape Section
Protected Natural Objects of local importance
Raised and Transitional Bogs of National Importan*
Rest Area
Sites for compensation of losses during use of us*
Specialy Protected Area
regional protected areas
special conservation areas
townscape protected area
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
Particular Protection
DESIGN_ENG
Biosphere Park
Biosphere reserves
Biotope Protection Order
Dry Grasslands
Ecological Important Area
Emerald Sites
Federal Hunting Reserves
Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I*
Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of *
Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures *
Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa*
Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire*
Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and *
Fenlands of National Importance
Flora Protection Area
Forest Biological Reserve
Forest Reserve
Horticultural Monument
Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio*
Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur*
Landscape Park
Landscape Protection Area
Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo*
Mire Landscapes of National Importance
National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve
Natural Monument
Natural Monument or Site
Other Protected Natural Regional Areas
Particular protection
Protected Area
Protected Forest
Protected Habitat
Protected Landscape Section
Protected Natural Objects of local importance
Raised and Transitional Bogs of National Importan*
Rest Area
Sites for compensation of losses during use of us*
Specialy Protected Area
regional protected areas
special conservation areas
townscape protected area
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
27Serrano León et al. (2015)
Natura 2000
Legend
Natura 2000
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Natura 2000
28Serrano León et al. (2015)
UNESCO Protection
Legend
UNESCO WH + BR
iucn_prote
UNESCO Biosphere Reserve
UNESCO World Heritage
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
UNESCO Protection
29Serrano León et al. (2015)
IUCN CategoriesInternational Union for Conservation of Nature
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Ia – Strict Nature Reserve
Ib – Wilderness Area
II – National Park
III – Natural Monument or Feature
IV – Habitat/Species Management Area
V – Protected LandscapeVI – Protected Area with Sustainable
Use of Natural Resources
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
30Serrano León et al. (2015)
31
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Ia – Strict Nature Reserve
Ib – Wilderness Area
II – National Park
III – Natural Monument or Feature
IV – Habitat/Species Management Area
V – Protected LandscapeVI – Protected Area with Sustainable
Use of Natural Resources
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
UNESCO WH + BR
iucn_prote
UNESCO Biosphere Reserve
UNESCO World Heritage
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
Natura 2000
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
IUCN CategoriesInternational Union for Conservation of Nature
Sources: combined from EEA - European Environment Agency, WDPA - World
Database on Protected Areas, and ALPARC.
32
Harmonized Protected Areas
Scenario 1 –
General protection
level
Legend
Prot_scenarios_class
Sc1_medium
0
30
50
100
Production restrictions
High protection
Medium protection
Low protection
Serrano León et al. (2015)
IUCN Categories
33
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Ia – Strict Nature Reserve
Ib – Wilderness Area
II – National Park
III – Natural Monument or Feature
IV – Habitat/Species Management Area
V – Protected LandscapeVI – Protected Area with Sustainable
Use of Natural Resources
Legend
National Protection Designation
IUCN Categories
Ia
Ib
II
III
IV
VI
V
UA
NA
Alps Convention
EU27
Legend
UNESCO WH + BR
iucn_prote
UNESCO Biosphere Reserve
UNESCO World Heritage
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
Legend
Natura 2000
Alps Convention
EU27
Croatia
35
Fossil fuel factor vs Carbon cost
BECCS in Indonesia
36
Biomass and managed forest
• Produced from G4M
• Harvest potential per year
• 10% used for biofuel production
Feedstock Assumptions
– Only forest biomass used
– Competition with pulp & paper mills
– Wood demand for pulp = 40 Mm3/a to be met first
– Max allowed fraction of increment to be used 20% or 50%
– Natural parks and protected areas are excluded.
PJ Mm3
Managed 8,537 923
Unmanaged 4,594 497
Total Forest Biomass in Indonesia
Pulp & Paper Mills
CHP - only
managed
20% increment
# plants with
suitable storage
access
Captured CO2 at
80% capture
efficiency
Carbon benefit @
5 US$/ton
1,185 MW 2.5 Mt CO2/yr 12.5 mill. US$
Only a small fraction of Indonesia‘s emission reduction target, but much bigger if
allowing for bundling, taking into account other feedstocks (only managed forest
used now) and adding other technologies (relatively low cooling demand now).
Electro-bus in Stockholm
41
Bus electrification: a challenge
d1 d2
S1 S2 S3
42
11,436 stations
43
526 lines
Electro-bus
ElectricConductive
Inductive
Biodiesel
Bus station…as biomass terminals?
d1 d2
S1 S2 S3
44
Ter1
Ter2
Plant
45
S2
S1
S3
S4
S5
Bus station…as biomass terminals?
BeWhere and YSSP
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014
2015 2015 2015 462016 2016 2016
BeWhere ThesisLeduc, S. (2009)
Development of an optimization model for the
location of biofuel production plants.
Schmidt, J. (2009)
Cost-effective CO2 emission reduction and
fossil fuel substitution through bioenergy
production in Austria: a spatially explicit
modeling approach.
Wetterlund, E. (2012)System studies of forest-based biomass
gasification.
Khatiwada, D. (2013)Assessing the sustainability of bioethanol
production in different development contexts –
a systems approach.
Slegers, PM (2014) Scenario studies for algae production.
Campana, PE (2015) PV water pumping systems for agricultural
applications.
Patrizio, P (2016) Prospects for agricultural biogas as a vehicle fuel
in Northern Italy
Mesfun, S (2016)Process integration to increase woody biomass
utilization for energy purposes
Karthikeyan, K (2016) Potential of forest based bioenergy in Finland.
47
2016
www.iiasa.ac.at/bewhere
48
Thank you!