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The Packaging Conference The Packaging Conference Beverages Beverages 2015 2015 Beverages Beverages 2015 2015 What’s In Store? What’s In Store? February 2, 2015

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Page 1: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

The Packaging ConferenceThe Packaging Conference

BeveragesBeverages 20152015Beverages Beverages 20152015What’s In Store? What’s In Store?

February 2, 2015

Page 2: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Beverage Marketing Corporation utilizes an integrated model for providing information, analysis and advice to beverage industry clients

Beverage Marketing Capabilities

analysis and advice to beverage industry clients

Unique Beverage Industry Expertise for Providing “Added-Value” to Selected Clients

Cutting Edge Insights: New Age Emergence, Multiple Beverage Competition, Specialty Beer Opportunity, Bottled Water Dominance, Hyper-Category

Competition Micro-Marketing Age

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

Competition, Micro-Marketing Age

Page 3: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

State of the Industry – The Good and the Bad

What’s In Store

Beverage Headlines

Liquid refreshment beverage market rebounds with modest growth in 2014 after flat performance in 2013g p

Carbonated soft drinks improve but experience modest decline

C i d lid h f b l d Continued solid growth from bottled water

Niche categories continue to outperform traditional mass-market categoriesmarket categories

Wine and spirits lead alcohol growth, and beer experiences improved performance

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-3-

Page 4: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

The economy continues to move in a positive direction with improved GDP growth and lower unemployment but improvement has been slow

What’s In Store

Quarterly GDP Change

lower unemployment, but improvement has been slow

Unemployment RateQuarterly GDP Change2010 – Q3 2014

Unemployment Rate2000 – 2014

10%

3.9%3.8%

2 5%

4.1%

3.1%

2 5%

4.1%3.5%

4.6%5.0%

8%

10%

2.5%2.3%

0.4%

1.3%1.8% 2.0%

1.3%

0.4%

1.1%

2.5%

4%

6%

-2.1% 2%

4%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2010 2011 2012 0%'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

2013 2014

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-4--4-

Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce, Department of Labor

Page 5: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Beverage stock performance was strong in 2014 – consistent with the performance of the overall stock market

What’s In Store

Stock Price Performance2009 – 2014

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

KO +25.9% +15.4% +7.1% +2.8% +13.5% +6.3%

PEP +11.0% +7.5% -2.2% +2.5% +21.2% +14.0%

DPS +74.2% +24.2% +5.5% +11.9% +10.3% +34.7%DPS 74.2% 24.2% 5.5% 11.9% 10.3% 34.7%

CCE +76.0% +18.1% +1.1% +23.1% +39.1% +21.3%

COT +540.6% +36.7% -29.7% +28.3% +0.4% -13.9%

Soft Drinks +21.6% +14.6% +3.8% +8.6% +9.8%Soft Drinks

Beverages +20.4% +15.0% +4.2% +10.1% +13.1%

Consumer Staples +14.2% N/A +10.0% +10.5% +12.8%

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; Charles Schwab

-5-

Page 6: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Consumer sentiment is at its highest level since the recession began in 2008 although still lagging pre-recession numbers

What’s In Store

Annual U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index

lagging pre recession numbers

ua U S Co su e Se t e t de1995 – 2014

103 2 104.6105.8 107.6

92.2 93.6

103.2 104.6

89.2 89.687.6

95.2

88.687.3 85.6

72 676.478.4

84.1

63.866.3

72.668.0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

Source: Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan

-6-

Page 7: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

The U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession

What’s In Store

U.S. Total Beverage Market2009 2014P

during the recession

• 2014 showed modest growth after flat performance in 2013

1 5%

2009 – 2014P

0.8%

1.5%1.3%

ge

-0 1% -0 1%me

Ch

ang

-0.1% -0.1%

Vol

u

-1.6%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corp.

-7-

Page 8: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Post-recession annual beverage revenues have been consistently positive, but the differential versus volume growth is narrowing

What’s In Store

U.S. Total Beverage MarketVolume and Wholesale Revenue

(Millions of Gallons and Wholesale Dollars)

differential versus volume growth is narrowing

( )2009 – 2014P

2.4%

3.0%

2.1%1.9%

han

ge

0.7%1.1%

1.3%

0.5%0.1%

1.0% 1.0%

C

-1.6%

-0.1% -0.1%

1.6%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 09/14 CAGR

Volume Wholesale Revenue

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corp.

-8-

Page 9: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

For the first time since the recession, all commercial beverage groups advanced in 2014

What’s In Store

U.S. Beverage Market – 2014P

2.0%

e

0.1%

0.7%

me

Ch

ange

Vol

um

-1.9%

LRBs Traditional Beverages

Beverage Alcohol

Tap Water

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corp.

-9-

Page 10: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Wines and spirits have been driving beverage alcohol growth with beer turning slightly positive in 2014

What’s In Store

p

Beverage Alcohol – 2014P

2.2%2 0%2.0%

ange

0 7%olum

e C

h

0.4%

0.7%Vo

Beer Wine Spirits Total Beverage Alcohol

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corp.

-10-

Page 11: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Over the last five years, bottled water has increased its share of stomach by more than 3 share points, capturing the undisputed #2 position

What’s In Store

p , p g p p

Volume Share of Stomach by U.S. Beverage Segment – Billions of Gallons2009 – 2014P

100% = 58 8 100% = 61 2

0 6% 0 9%0.8% 0.7%

12.7% 13.5%

Wine/SpiritsEnergy Drinks

Value-Added WaterTap/Others

100% = 58.8 100% = 61.2

10.9% 9.7%

5.9% 6.0%

6.1% 5.1%1.9% 2.3%

2.0% 2.1%0.6% 0.9%0.8% 0.7%

Milk

Tea

Fruit BeveragesSports Bev

Wine/Spirits

11.0% 10.5%

10.0% 10.7%

10.9% 9.7%Milk

Coffee

Beer

14.4% 17.7%Bottled Water

Beer

23.7% 20.8%CSDs

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-11-

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corporation

2009 2014P

Page 12: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

More non-alcoholic beverage categories grew in 2014 than declined, and niche categories generally outperformed large traditional categories

What’s In Store

2014 Category Winners and Losers

g y p g g

WINNERS* LOSERS**WINNERS*

• Bottled Water

LOSERS**

• CSDs

• RTD Coffee

• RTD Tea

• Milk

• Fruit Beverages

• Sports Drinks

• Energy Drinks

• Value-Added Water

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-12-

* Volume increases** Volume declines

Page 13: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

What’s In Store

More categories experienced improved performance in 2014 even when they declined

2014 Beverage Report Card

IMPROVED WORSENED

• Bottled Water

• CSDs

• Fruit Beverages

• RTD Coffee

• Energy Drinks

• Milk

• RTD Tea

• Sports DrinksSports Drinks

• Value-Added Water

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-13-

Page 14: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

In general, traditional mass market categories have struggled while niche categories have experienced growth

What’s In Store

The U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverage Market2014P

experienced growth

• Bottled water is the primary exception of a mainstream category that has thrived

8.0%6 8% 7 1%

2014P

6.8%

2 6%3.5%

7.1%

han

ge

2.6%

Vol

ume

Ch

-1.0%

-2.8%

4 9%

V

-4.9%CSDs Fruit

BevsValue Added Waters

RTD Coffee

Energy Drinks

RTD Tea Sports Bevs

Bottled Water

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

Waters

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corp.

-14-

Page 15: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Many big brands declined in 2013

What’s In Store

Top 10 Soft DrinksTop 10 Soft Drinks Top 10 Beer BrandsTop 10 Beer Brands Top 10 Spirits BrandsTop 10 Spirits Brands

Coke

Diet Coke

Bud Light

Coors Light

Bacardi

Jack Daniels

Pepsi-Cola

Mountain Dew

Budweiser

Miller Lite

Absolut

Grey Goose

Dr Pepper

Diet Pepsi

Natural Light

Busch Light

Diet Mt. Dew

Fanta

Busch

Heineken

Coke Zero

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-15-

Page 16: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

New product introductions have been on the rise after declining in 2009 due to the recession in the beverage industry

What’s In Store

recession in the beverage industry

New Beverage Product Introductions2001 – 2014

4.44.7

4.5

KU

s

3.2

3.8 3.9 4.04.4

ands

of

SK

2.0

2.92.6 2.6 2.7

Thou

sa 1.7 1.6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

Source: Beverage Marketing Corp.; Mintel

-16-

Page 17: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Diet soft drinks have hit a ceiling and are declining at a faster rate than regular soft drinks

What’s In Store

regular soft drinks

• Some diet consumers have shifted to bottled water and other categories• Regular CSD volume increased in 2014 for the first time in many years

Carbonated Soft Drink MarketGrowth by Type

U.S. Carbonated Soft Drink MarketShare by Type2009 – 2014P

2010 – 2014P

Year Regular Diet30 9% 27.9%Diet

09/10 -0.9% -0.7%

10/11 -1.5% -2.5%

11/12 -1.1% -3.4%

30.9%

/

12/13 -1.9% -6.3%

13/14P 0.9% -5.5%69.1% 72.1%Regular

2009 2014P

09/14P5-Yr CAGR -0.9% -3.7%

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-17-

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Page 18: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Reduced-calorie carbonated soft drinks formulated with varying versions of steviaaccount for a small but growing share of the diet CSD market

What’s In Store

account for a small but growing share of the diet CSD market

Stevia Sweetened CSDs

2013 Supermarket Sales 2013 Supermarket Sales 2013 Supermarket Sales $0.1 Million $2.0 Million $12.7 Million

2013 Supermarket Sales Sa es$7.2 Million

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

* Retail sales in Supermarket onlySource: Beverage Marketing Corp.; SymphonyIRI-18-

Page 19: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Craft sodas are beginning to emerge as a viable option for today’s consumers with new brands and companies entering the market

What’s In Store

brands and companies entering the market

Craft Soda

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-19-

Page 20: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

New dispensing systems are offering consumers more variety

What’s In Store

Variety and CustomizationVariety and Customization

Pepsi SpireCoke Freestyle Coming Soon:Keurig Cold Cup Dispenser

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-20-

Page 21: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

What’s In Store

Keurig Cold Benefits

Beverage delivered cold

Carbonation with no CO2 canister

Perfect dosing & one touch simplicity

Sustainable

Vast brand selection

L hi F ll 2015L hi F ll 2015

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-21-

Launching Fall 2015Launching Fall 2015

Page 22: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Approximately 20% of consumers say they have an interest in Keurig Cold and BMC estimates the potential market at 150 million cases by the second year

What’s In Store

Interest in Keurig Cold Keurig Cold Estimates by BMCInterest in Keurig Cold

21%Very Interested

Keurig Cold Estimates by BMC

U. S. Households 121.0 Million

23%Somewhat InterestedPenetration 5%

17%Minorly Interested Machines in Use 6.0 Million

39%Not Interested at all

Attachment Rate 1.5 Servings per Day

LRB Servings per Year 3 3 BillionLRB Servings per Year 3.3 Billion

150 Million Cases150 Million Cases

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-22-

Source: Beverage Marketing Corp.; Consumer Edge Research

Page 23: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Consumer health and variety demands negatively impact CSD consumption

What’s In Store

Reasons for Reducing CSD ConsumptionReasons for Reducing CSD Consumption

Tired of

Health

drinking them

EconomySwitching

More tap water

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-23-

Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation; Consumer Edge Research

Page 24: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Modest pricing increases in carbonated soft drinks coupled with significant pricing declines in bottled water have contributed to respective category performances

What’s In Store

Wholesaler Dollars Per Gallon Indexed to 2000

140

Wholesaler Dollars Per Gallon Indexed to 2000

2014 Absolute Price$4.04

120

130

140

90

100

110

Inde

x

70

80

90

$1.22

602000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P

CSDs PET Single Serve Bottled Water

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-24-

Source: Beverage Marketing Corp.

Page 25: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

The single-serve water segment continues to drive overall category growth and accounts for two-thirds of total volume

What’s In Store

and accounts for two thirds of total volume

• Domestic sparkling was fastest growing segment in 2014 off a small base• In 2013 and 2014, all category segments increased

U.S. Bottled Water Market2012 – 2014P

Share and Growth in Volume by Category

Share GrowthCategories 2012 2013 2014P 12/13 13/14P

NON-SPARKLINGPET Single-Serve 65.1% 66.0% 66.6% 6.1% 8.4%1-2.5 Gallon 10.3% 10.0% 9.5% 1.1% 2.2%Direct Delivery 12.4% 12.1% 11.8% 1.7% 4.6%Vending 8 3% 8 1% 7 9% 1 7% 5 2%Vending 8.3% 8.1% 7.9% 1.7% 5.2%

Subtotal 96.2% 96.1% 95.8% 4.6% 7.0%

Domestic Sparkling 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% 9.3% 17.1%Imports 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 3.9% 10.4%

TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 4.7% 7.3%

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-25-

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Page 26: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

While stable, PET water pricing continues to be historically aggressive and is likely to remain so at least through 2015

What’s In Store

g

• Every-day pricing has been as low as $2.49-2.99 for 24-packs at retail

Advances in Supply Chain Costs

High speed bottle filling in a range of 15 18 million cases per High-speed bottle filling in a range of 15-18 million cases per year per line

Stable to declining resin costsg

Continued bottle light-weighting

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-26-

Page 27: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

While branded water outsells private label in the retail PET segment, private label has made significant inroads over the last five years

What’s In Store

made significant inroads over the last five years

U S R t il PET W t M k tU.S. Retail PET Water MarketBranded vs. Private Label

2014P2014P2009

Private Label15.6%

B d dPrivate Label

43 9%

Branded84.4%

Branded56.1%

43.9%

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-27-

Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Page 28: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

In a sign of the future, bottled water already outsells CSDs in food stores in 15 U.S. cities

What’s In Store

• With bottled water growing and CSDs declining, other markets are likely to join this group

160160155

144 140132

127123123

118108 105 103 102 102 102 101 97

86

h ven

C.

Total U.S. Food Index

80

Veg

as

Yor

k

on Fran

cisc

o

mi Die

go

Ang

eles

adel

phia

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orth

ford

/N. H

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Las

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New

Bos

t o

San

F

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Phi

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Pho

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Dal

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Har

tf

Hou

s

Tam

p

Was

h

Alb

an

Orl

an

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

* Nielsen Food Markets 52 weeks ending 9/7/13; Bottled Water does not include flavored/enhanced waterSource: AC Nielsen; NWNA

-28-

Page 29: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Value-added waters account for just 5% of single-serve water beverage volume, but hold a larger share of revenues due to higher pricing

What’s In Store

volume, but hold a larger share of revenues due to higher pricing

U.S. Retail Premium Bottled Water MarketShare and Growth by Volume and Revenues

2014P

Volume Share Revenue Share

Volume RevenueS Ch Ch

Flavored WaterEnhanced Water 4.3%

1.0%

12.3%

3.0%

Segment Change Change

Flavored 1.5% -0.5%

Enhanced -6.5% -5.5%

Regular PET 8.4% 5.1%Regular PETBottled Water

94.7%84.7%

Total 7.6% 3.5%

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-29-

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Page 30: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Slightly over half of the fruit beverage category is comprised of 100% juice

What’s In Store

• Nevertheless, both 100% juice and juice drinks have experienced weak performance over the last five years

U.S. Fruit Beverage MarketGrowth

2010 – 2014P

U.S. Fruit Beverage MarketVolume Share by Segment

2009 – 2014P2010 2014P

Year 100% Juice Drinks

09/10 -4 1% 2 1%45 1% 46 0%Drinks 09/10 -4.1% 2.1%

10/11 -5.4% -1.1%

11/12 -2.8% -5.6%

45.1% 46.0%Drinks

12/13 -1.2% -2.7%

13/14P -1.6% -4.2%54.9% 54.0%100% Juice

09/ 3 0% 2 3%

2009 2014P

09/14P -3.0% -2.3%5-Yr CAGR

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-30-

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Page 31: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

What’s In Store

Despite softness in the overall fruit beverage market, high-pressure pascalization (HPP) juices have emerged as a premium growth segmentpascalization (HPP) juices have emerged as a premium growth segment

HPP Juice Brands

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-31-

Page 32: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Virtually all of the growth in the U.S. tea category has come from RTD tea as k t i

What’s In Store

U S T M k t

consumers seek out convenience

U.S. Tea MarketVolume Growth2010 – 2014P

U.S. Tea MarketVolume Share by Segment

2009 – 2014P2010 2014P

Loose/Year RTD Bagged/Mix

09/10 10 1% 0 2%36.1% 42.9%RTD

09/10 10.1% -0.2%

10/11 5.3% -2.2%

11/12 5.2% -0.2%

12/13 0.6% -1.4%

13/14P 2.6% -1.2%63.9% 57.1%Loose/Bagged

/Mix

2009 2014P

09/14P 4.7% -1.0%5-Yr CAGR

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-32-

2009 2014P

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Page 33: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

RTD coffee remains a relatively small share of the total U.S. coffee market, but growth has been healthy

What’s In Store

U S Coffee Market

but growth has been healthy

U.S. Coffee MarketVolume Growth2010 – 2014P

U.S. Coffee MarketVolume Share by Segment

2009 – 2014P 2010 2014P

Ground/Year RTD Whole Bean

09/10 2 4% 0 2%

1.0% 1.5%RTD

09/10 2.4% 0.2%

10/11 9.9% -3.8%

11/12 9.5% 4.1%Whole Bean/ Ground 99 0% 98 5%

12/13 11.1% 0.2%

13/14P 8.0% -0.9%

Ground 99.0% 98.5%

2009 2014P

09/14P 8.1% -0.1% 5-Yr CAGR

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-33-

P: PreliminarySource: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Page 34: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

The milk industry is working to win the battle of public opinion to combat what it considers negative information in the marketplace

What’s In Store

what it considers negative information in the marketplace

• Current advertising touts milk as a great source of protein, and also positions chocolate milk as a great energy source

#MilkTruth

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-34-

Page 35: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Craft beer continues to be the fastest growing segment in the beer category as new breweries are still opening and approaching 3,000 nationally

What’s In Store

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-35-

Page 36: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Most emerging categories have health and wellness attributes and/or promise specific functional benefits

What’s In Store

functional benefits

Select Offerings and Categories of Today’s Emerging Beverages

Functional Chia Aloe Vera Plant-based Water

Probiotic Energy Shots Coconut KombuchaProbiotic Energy Shots Coconut Water

Kombucha

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-36-

Page 37: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

As the number of beverage categories has proliferated, so have packaging alternatives

What’s In Store

Evolution of Beverage Packaging1970s to Present Today

• Multi-packs: 6-Pack, 12-Pack, 24-Pack, 15-Pack, 20-Pack & 30-Pack, new 2000s

• Multi-packs: 6-Pack, 12-Pack, 24-Pack, 15-Pack, 20-Pack & 30-Pack, new configurations

configurations• PET: 2-Liter, 3-Liter,

12-oz/500 ml, 16-oz, 20-oz, 32-oz, 34-oz, 96-oz size

1990s

• Multi-packs: 6-Pack, 12-Pack, 24-Pack, 15-Pack & 20-Pack

• PET: 2-Liter, 3-Liter,

configurations• PET: 2-Liter, 3-Liter, 12-

oz/500 ml, 16-oz, 20-oz, 32-oz, 34-oz, 96-oz, size proliferation, proprietary h i i

96 oz, size proliferation, proprietary shapes, interactive packages

• Glass: 10/12-oz, i l 7

• Multi-packs: 6-Pack, 12-Pack &

te , 3 te ,12-oz/500 ml, 16-oz, 20-oz, 32-oz, 34-oz, 96-oz

• Glass: 10/12-oz, single serve 7 oz

shapes, interactive packages

• Glass: 10/12-oz, single-serve, 7-oz, 16/17.5-oz, 20-oz. proprietary

single-serve, 7-oz, 16/17.5-oz, 20-oz. proprietary shapes

• Cans• Aseptic: multi-packs,

1980s

• Multi-packs: 6-Pack

• PET: 2 Liter

Pack, 12 Pack & 24-Pack

• PET: 2-Liter, 3-Liter

• Glass: 10/12-oz, single se e

single-serve, 7-oz, 16/17.5-oz, 20-oz.

• Cans• Aseptic: multi-packs,

single

p p yshapes

• Cans• Aseptic: multi-packs,

single, size proliferation, adult sizes/graphics

p p ,single, size proliferation, adult sizes/graphics

• Paper: half-gallon, quart

1970s

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

• PET: 2-Liter• Glass: 10/12-oz

single-serve• Cans

• Paper: half-gallon, quart

adult sizes/graphics• Paper: half-gallon, quart

quart• “Shot” formats

-37-

Page 38: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Cans, plastic and glass comprise more than 90% of the beverage packaging universe• Over the last five years, plastic has seen the most growth due mostly to the success of the bottled

What’s In Store

water category

Beverage Packaging Share by Package Type*Billions of Packaging Units

100% = 246.4 245.5

5.9% 5.2%1.2% 1.1%1.1% 1.0%

PouchesPaper

Aseptic

2008 – 2013

Beverage Package TypesGrowth

15.6% 14.6%Glass

Paper 2008 2013 TYPE CAGR (%)

Aseptic -3.1%

34.3% 39.1%PlasticPouches -1.6%

Paper -2.5%

Gl 1 4%

41.8% 39 0%Cans

Glass -1.4%

Plastic 2.6%

Cans -1 5%41.8% 39.0%

2008 2013

Cans Cans -1.5%

TOTAL -0.1%

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.

* Includes Milk, does not include Beer kegs Source: Beverage Marketing Corp. BMC Strategic Associates analysis

2008 2013

-38-

Page 39: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Recently, smaller CSD packages have entered the market, generally increasing gross profit per pack, but impacting volume

What’s In Store

g p p p , p g

Multipack Volume, Revenue and Profit Comparison

Ounces Sold Price per Pack Gross Profit per PackOunces Sold Price per Pack Gross Profit per Pack

$3.23 $2 83

~13% fewerdollars

144$2.83

$1.29$1.52

~60% fewer ounces

~20% more profit

60$1.29

12pk 12oz Cans

8pk 7.5oz cans 12pk 12oz Cans

8pk 7.5oz cans 12pk 12oz Cans

8pk 7.5oz cans

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-39-

Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Page 40: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Packaging innovation has gained in importance as the marketplace has gotten more crowded as a means to distinguish both categories and brands

What’s In Store

crowded as a means to distinguish both categories and brands

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-40-

Page 41: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Brands often tend to be identified with a particular packaging material – often indicative of the package in which the brand was launched

What’s In Store

of the package in which the brand was launched

Selected Beverage Brands by Lead Pack Type

Gl

Lead Format

Selected Beverage Brands by Lead Pack Type

Glass

Aluminum

Plastic

Hybrid

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-41-

Page 42: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

In the future, the marketplace will be characterized by numerous high-value, low relative volume opportunities

What’s In Store

High Growth(2008-2013 CAGR)

Alc Pouches

volume opportunities

20%

Coconut WaterHard Cider

Alc Pouches

Enhanced RTD Teas

Organic J i

Energy

0%

10%

Craft Beer

MalternaJuices

gy

SPFJ

RTD Coffee

RTD Tea

10%Tequila

tives

Straight Whiskey

VodkaPET Water

Domestic

Projected Value Enhanced

Sports Drinks

$250 Million

$5 Billion

$35 Billion $50 Billion$500 Million

0% Milk

Soy $25 Billion$10 Billion

F it

WhiskeyWine

Value

PremiumCSDs

Regular CSDs

Diet CSDsEnhanced Fruit Drinks

Enhanced Waters

SS Dairy

$1 Billion0%

-5%Bulk/HOD Water

Milk100% Juices

Flavored

Fruit Drinks

Imported Wine

Imported Beer

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-42-

yDrinks

Low Growth

FlavoredWater

Page 43: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Among refreshment beverages, the strongest growth is projected for bottled water, sports beverages, energy drinks and RTD tea and coffees

What’s In Store

U S Beverage Market Projections by Category

g g

• CSDs, milk and fruit beverages will need to innovate and provide healthier options to rekindle growth

U.S. Beverage Market Projections by Category 2014P – 2015p

Categories 2014P 2015p 13/14P 14P/15pShare Growth

Non-AlcoholicCarbonated Soft Drinks 33.1% 32.2% -1.0% -1.2%Bottled Water 28.1% 29.3% 7.1% 5.6%

PET Water 18.8% 19.7% 8.5% 6.5%Fruit Beverages 8 2% 7 9% 2 8% 2 3%Fruit Beverages 8.2% 7.9% -2.8% -2.3%RTD Tea 4.1% 4.1% 2.6% 2.7%Sports Beverages 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 2.8%Energy Drinks 1.5% 1.6% 6.8% 6.0%Value-Added Water 1.1% 1.0% -4.9% -2.9%Value Added Water 1.1% 1.0% 4.9% 2.9%RTD Coffee 0.2% 0.2% 8.0% 7.0% Subtotal 80.0% 80.1% 2.0% 1.6%

AlcoholicBeer 16.6% 16.5% 0.4% 0.7%Wine 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.5%Spirits 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% Subtotal 20.0% 19.9% 0.7% 1.0% TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 1.8% 1.5%

Copyright © 2015 Beverage Marketing Corp.-43-

P: Preliminary; p:Projected Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation

Page 44: Beverages 2015 What’s In Store? - Beverage Marketing ... U.S. beverage market has experienced overall mixed performance since declines during the recession What’s In Store U.S

Thank You

Beverage Marketing Corporation

• Strategic Associates

Beverage Marketing Corporation

• Research

• Advisors