berton hamamoto (b), abr, crb, crs, cfp property profiles inc
TRANSCRIPT
Berton Hamamoto (B), ABR, CRB, CRS, CFP
Property Profiles Inc.
Did YOU miss the boat??
Metric % change from one year ago
Comment
NARMedian Price
+ 11.3% (September)
Mix of homes impact price … fewer distressed sales recently …
Case-Shiller +2.0% (June, July,
August average)
Lagging indicator
Near double-digit on an annualized basis in recent months
FHFA + 4.7% (August)Monthly gains in 9 of recent 10 months
Distressed Sales Market Share
2010 … 33%
2011 … 33%
2012 … 25%
2013 … 15%
2014 … 8%
2015 … 5%
Source: Case-Shiller
Island Single Family
Condo
Oahu + 7.8% ($620,000)
+5.8% ($317,500)
Maui +9.0%($ 470,000)
+16.0%($358,995)
Kauai + 0.55% ($457,500)
+ 26.97% ($289,500)
Big Island + 5.26% ($260,000)
+21.88% ($259,000)
Statistics provided by HBR, HIS & RAM
2012 % chg from 2011Jan 2012 - 9.3%
February - 4.9%
March -12.1%April - 19.4%
May -19.5%
June -15.9%
July -19.3%
Aug -20.7%
September -19.7%
October -24.9%
November -21.0%
December -18.4%
2012 % chg from 2011Jan 2012 - 7.8%
February - 6.4%
March -10.1%April - 7.4%
May - 7.0%
June -11.3%
July -12.5%
Aug - 8.7%
September -14.3%
October -12.1%
November -16.5%
December -13.5%
Statistics provided by HBR
Category % chg ytd 2012
Unit sales + 6.5%Median price + 7.8%
($620k)Inventory - 18.4%Pending sales + 81.5%Months supply - 47.9%
(2.5mo)Days on Market
- 14.3% (30 days)
Statistics provided by HBR
Category Annual % chgUnit sales + 8.2%Median price + 5.8%
($317.5k)Inventory - 13.5%Pending sales + 63.8%Months supply - 40.0%
(3.0mo)Days on Market
- 50.0% (41 days)
Statistics provided by HBR
Neighborhood
Annual % chg
Kailua/Waimanalo
+2.0% $794,500
Hawaii Kai - 3.0% $880,000
Mililani nc $590,000
Pearl City/ Aiea +2.0% $583,750
Ewa Plain +5.0% $460,400
Makaha / Nanakuli
+11.0% $315,000
Statistics provided by HBR
Neighborhood
Annual % chg
Ala Moana area + 1.0% $355,000
Hawaii Kai + 3.0% $525,000
Mililani +14.0% $289,000
Pearl City/ Aiea + 1.0% $275,000
Ewa Plain + 3.0% $310,000
Waikiki +28.0% $365,000
North Shore + 5.0% $300,000
2011History
2012Forecast
2013Forecast
2014Forecast
GDP Growth +1.8% +2.1% +2.5% 3.1%
Existing Home Sales
4.26 million 4.64 million 5.05 million 5.3 million
New Home Sales
301,000 368,000 575,000 650,000
Housing Starts
612,000 776,000 1,128,000 1,300,000
Existing Home Price
$166,100 $176,100 $ 185,200 $195,000
Fed Funds Rate
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
30-yr Mortgage
4.7% 3.7% 4.0% 4.6%
Higher home prices 10%– 15% in some neighborhoods
Little inventory added to market will decrease supply
Rents will increase due to competition for housing
Investors increasing share of market
2009 - $340,0002011 - $ 360,000 – $370,0002012 - $405,000 - $410,000 (+20%)
Upside … Credit AvailabilityHousing recovery up so far even with tight creditWhat happens if mortgage accessibility opens up?Demand outpacing supply
Downside … Washington PolicyQRM 20% down payment requirement?Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private
mortgage with low down payment and commercial loans
Trim mortgage interest deduction?Capital gains tax on home sale?
Still time to buy…BUT YOU WANT TO BUY
NOW!!!!!!!Talk to a REALTOR