bert pcfv pak - 17may.ppt

7/28/2019 Bert PCFV Pak - 17May.ppt

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1

Bert FabianTransport Program Manager

Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center

National Workshop on Clean Fuels and Vehicles

Islamabad, Pakistan19 May 2010

Vehicle Emissions and Fuel QualityStandards in Asia and Objectives


2/22

About PCFV

Launched at the WSSD in Johannesburg in 2002

Assists developing countries to reduce air pollution fromvehicles through the promotion of lead-free, low sulphur fuels

and cleaner vehicle standards and technologies

With over 116 partners including governments, civil society,

international organizations, and academic institutions

www.unep.org/pcfv

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3/22

About CAI-Asia

The Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities promotes better air quality

and livable cities by translating knowledge to policies and actions

that reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in transport,

energy and other sectors

3

CAI-Asiabegan in 2001 as a multi-stakeholder initiative by ADB, World Bank

and USAID

Since 2007, CAI-Asia is a UN Type-II Partnership with over 170 organizational

members, 8 Country Networks, and the CAI-Asia Center as its secretariat (a

non-profit organization)


4/22

CAI-Asia, a team of specialists and partners (HEI, Shell,USEPA), with ADBs support, prepared the Road Map forCleaner Fuels and Vehicles in Asia

Asian countries still need to put in place medium term

fuel quality roadmaps It is important to involve stakeholders in decision making

and action planning for the introduction of cleaner fuelsand vehicles

www.cleanairinitiative.org

Road Map for Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles


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Outline

Transport trends and impacts

Sustainable transport and cleaner fuels and vehicles

Objectives of the workshop

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6

How can our transport system become

sustainable?

Break the trend!


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Motorization: explosive growth in vehicles in Asia

Source: 2009. ADB, CAI-Asia, Segment Y Ltd., and IEA

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ASEAN(Major

Countries)

CHINA INDIA OECD North

America

OECD Europe OECD Pacific

moto

rizationindex

totalnumberofvehicles(inmillio

ns)

Total Vehicles (in millions) Motorization Index (V/1000 P)


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Ambient Air Quality in Asian Cities

8

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

PM10 NOX SOX

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

WHO Guidelines(1 year)EU Standard (1 year)

USEPA Standard(1 year)

Source: CAI-Asia Center


9/22

PM Emissions from transport (BAU)

9Source: 2009. ADB, CAI-Asia, and Segment Y Ltd.,

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50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

Vietnam

Philippines

Thailand

Indonesia

India

China

Thousandtons


10/22

CO2 Emissions from Transport (BAU)

10

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2005 2008 2015 2025 2035

Vietnam

Philippines

Thailand

Indonesia

India

China

Srilanka

Nepal

Malaysia

South Korea

Bangladesh

Singapore

Pakistan

Years

CO

2EMISSIONS/YEAR(MillionTons)

Source: 2009. ADB, CAI-Asia, and Segment Y Ltd.


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Impact on Public Health

Study in Hanoi,Vietnam showscritical exposurelevels for PM10

Average exposureof about 500 g/m3

for walking andriding motorcycles!

People exposed are

mostly the middleand lower class inthe society

11Source: Saksena, et al. 2008. East-West Center, USA


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12

Asian Short term Results Similar To US, Europe:HEI Meta-Analysis of Asian Studies of Daily MortalityPublic Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA)

28 recent daily time

series studies examined

Studies find effects of

air pollution on rate ofdeath, illness

~0.5% increase for every

10 g/m3 of PM10

High levels of air

pollution in Asian cities(>100 g/m3)

Likely a substantial public

health impact

0.46 0.62 0.49

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Percent

Increase

US(90 Cities)* Eur(21 Cities)* Asia (4 Cities)

Percent Increase in Mortality per 10

micrograms PM10

* Estimates Using Pre-GAM Results(without revision)

Source: Greenbaum, et al. 2007. Health Effects Institute, USA


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Achieving sustainable transport

13

Urban/Transport

Planning and Demand

Management

Public Transport &

Non Motorized

Transport

Cleaner and Efficient

Fuels and Vehicles

Freight and LogisticsTOOLS

AIR POLLUTION

CLIMATE CHANGE

ROAD SAFETY

SOCIAL EQUITY

CONGESTION

NOISE POLLUTION

EXTERNALITIES

PLANNING

REGULATORY

ECONOMIC

INFORMATION

TECHNOLOGICAL

TOOLS

GovernmentDevelopment

Institutions

Civil Society Private Sector


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Emission Standards New Light-Duty Vehicles

Country 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

1

8European

UnionE1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6

BangladeshaEuro

2

BangladeshbEuro

1

Hong Kong,

ChinaEuro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5

Indiac Euro1

Euro 2 Euro 3

Indiad E1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4

Indonesia Euro 2

Malaysia Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4

Nepal Euro 1

Pakistan Euro 2 a b

Philippines Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4

PRCa Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4

PRCe Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4 Beijing only

Singaporea Euro 1 Euro 2

Singaporeb Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 4

Sri Lanka Euro 1 Euro 2f

South Korea Euro 4 Euro 5

Taipei, US Tier 1 US Tier 2 Bin 7g

Thailand Euro 1 Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4

Viet Nam Euro 2E

4

14Source: CAI-Asia, 2010


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Fuel Quality Standards (levels of sulfur in diesel)

> 500 ppm 51 500 ppm < 50 ppmSource: CAI-Asia, 2010

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bangladesh 5000

Cambodia 2000 1500

Hong Kong, 500 50 10a

India (nationwide) 5000 2500 500 350

India (metros) 5000 2500 500 350a 50a

Indonesia 5000 3500 350

Japanb

500 50 10Malaysia 5000 3000 500c 500d 50

a

Pakistan 10000 7000c 500

Philippines 5000 2000 500

PRC (nationwide) e,f 5000 2000 2000 & 500

PRC - Beijing 5000 2000 500 350 50

Singapore 3000 500 50

South Korea 500 430 100 30 15(10)fSri Lanka 10000 5000d 500

Taipei, 3000 500 350 100 50

Thailand 2500 500 350 150 50

Viet Nam 10000 500

European Union 500 50(10)f 10

United States 500 15


16/22

Philippines: PM and NOx reduction from moving

from Pre-Euro to Euro II

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100

150

200

1995 2008 2015 2025 2035

1000Tons

PM Emissions w/ Euro Standards

PM Emissions w/out Euro Standards

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150

300

450

600

750

900

1995 2008 2015 2025 2035

1000Tons

NOx Emissions w/ Euro Standards

NOx Emissions w/out Euro Standards


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PM reduction if Philippines moved from Euro II to

Euro III

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10

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45

1995 2008 2015 2025 2035

1000tons

PM Emissions w/ Current Euro Standards PM Emissions w/ Higher Euro Standards

Emission savings

Source: CAI-Asia analysis, Segment Y data


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Fuel Price PolicyFuels Price

Gasohol 95-E10 31.74 Baht/L



Gasohol 91-

E1030.94 Baht/L

Gasoline 95 40.34 Baht/LGasoline 91 35.34 Baht/L

Diesel 28.19 Baht/LDiesel B5 26.79 Baht/L

FuelPrice

MarketingMargin Price fromRefinery VAT7%

Ex-Refin. ExciseTax VATMunicipalTax Oil Fund Consv.Fund

Petroleum Fuel Price Price Structure of PetroleumProduct

Source: Manwipa Kusaon, PCD Thailand, 2009


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Summary

Business-as-usual scenarios point to continued high emissions

of PM and as well as CO2 and will also result to high levels of

fuel consumption, continued traffic congestion, traffic

accidents

High levels of exposure to air pollution causing morbidity and

mortality

Need for integrated framework such as EST in order to

address this problem

Need for a timeline for implementing stricter vehicle

emissions standards and fuel quality

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Objectives of the Workshop

Draft a roadmap for the introduction of Euro 4 fuel and vehicular

technology in Pakistan in consultation with major stakeholders

Update the major stakeholders on the actions taken and planned by

the Government of Pakistan vis--vis implementation of the Euro 2

vehicle emission standards and fuel specifications in Pakistan Encourage the participation and secure the buy-in of other sectors

in the implementation of these standards

Share information with stakeholders on trends in fuel and vehicle

quality in Asia and other regions of the world

Identify a set of recommendations and tentative time-line that will

then form the inputs for an action plan

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Breakout Sessions

Financing issues

How much do we need to improve fuel quality?

Who pays? And how does it impact the society and the

economy?

What kind of policies (economic and institutional) does thisrequire?

Technical issues

What does it take to establish vehicle emission standards?

What is the impact on existing vehicles? What are complementary policies needed? e.g. inspection and

maintenance

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7/12/2013 22

Sophie Punte, Executive [email protected]

Glynda Bathan, Policy and Partnerships [email protected]

Bert Fabian, Transport Program Manager

[email protected]

Sudhir Gota, Transport [email protected]

Alvin Mejia, Environment [email protected]

Unit 3510, 35th floorRobinsons-Equitable Tower

ADB Avenue, Pasig CityMetro Manila 1605

Philippines

www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia

CAI-Asia Center
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bert pcfv pak - 17may.ppt

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