benjamin sovacool "the nordic low-carbon transition: implications and insights for researchers...
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The Nordic Low-Carbon Transition:
Implications and Insights for
Researchers and PractitionersInvited Keynote Address to the Energy Cultures Conference
“Sustainable Energy Figures: Understanding Behavior and
Supporting Transitions,” Wellington, New Zealand, July 6-7,
2016
Benjamin K. Sovacool, Ph.D
Professor of Energy Policy Director of the Sussex Energy Group
Director of the Center on Innovation and Energy Demand
Global Final Energy Consumption, 2012
Amount = 5,600 mtoe Amount = 22,000 TWh Amount = 89 mbd
Renewable energy is largely the “other”!
A diversification challenge
Major Global Energy Reserves for 16 Leading Energy
Nations, 2012
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Bill
ion
Bar
rels
of O
il Eq
uiv
alen
tShale Gas
Uranium
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
A geopolitical problem
Life Expectancy of Proven Fossil Fuel and
Uranium Resources, 2012
9
Proven
Reserves
Current
Production
Life Expectancy (Years)
0% Annual
Production
Growth
Rate
1.6%
Production
Growth
Rate
2.5%
Production
Growth
Rate
Coal 930,400
million short
tons
6,807
million short
tons
137 85 61
Natural
Gas
6,189 trillion
cubic feet
104.0 trillion
cubic feet
60 42 37
Petrole
um
1317 billion
barrels
30.560
billion
barrels
43 33 30
Uraniu
m
4,743,000
tons (at
$130/kgU)
40,260 tons 118 67 56
A resource depletion problem
Carbon capture and storage is key
“Carbon capture and storage (CCS) represents the most
important option among new technologies for reducing industrial
CO2 emissions after 2030. Currently, great uncertainties exist as
to how to deploy CCS, and therefore both CCS demonstrations
and closer Nordic collaboration would be needed to overcome
the barriers.”
• It will still take
decades (until 2050)
for the Nordic region
• These are courtiers
are already anomalies
• Relatively small
• Wealthy
• Strong
environmental
ethic
• High fuel and
electricity prices
#1: The transition won’t be rapid
• It will depend on
technological
breakthroughs, but these are
not necessarily obvious:
• Bioenergy
• Hydro
• CCS
• EVs
• (conventional) Nuclear
power
• Energy efficiency
• Energy storage
• Political goals may not be
achieved due to lack of
technological innovation
#2: Even for Nordic countries, the
transition is contingent
Sketch of the Norwegian hydropower
system Sira-Kvina
• It will involve not only changing technical systems, but also social attitudes – the
human software along with the technological hardware, the notion of a
“seamless web” from Thomas P. Hughes
#3: The transition is socio-technical
User motivations are complex and
heterogamous
Stern, Paul C. and Elliot Aronson, Energy Use: The Human
Dimension (New York: Freeman & Company, 1984).
• The investor regards energy as a cost that is carefully considered in
making purchases such as equipment and capital, and views energy
technologies as durable ways to recover costs over their useful life.
• The consumer thinks of their homes and automobiles as consumer
goods that provide pleasures and necessities.
• The conformer sees energy technologies as a way to belong to a
particular social group or attain status.
• The crusader sees energy use as an ethical issue and conserves
energy as an expression of self-reliance and environmental
stewardship.
• The problem avoider treats energy as no more than a potential
source of annoyance or inconvenience, doing nothing about it until
technologies break down and services cease.
User motivations are complex and
heterogamous
(1) User-producers create new technical and organizational
solutions
(2) User-intermediaries shape the needs and desires of users as well
as products, infrastructures, and regulatory frameworks
(3) User-citizens engage in politics of regime shift lobbying for a
particular niche
(4) User-legitimators shape the values and worldview of niche
actors
(5) User-consumers appropriate products and services and thus
producing meaning and purpose, and testing new systems
• The blueprint will
most certainly not
be adopted globally
• United States
and its partisan
politics?
• China and its
energy
scramble?
• India and its
energy poverty?
• It only gets us
partway where we
need to go
#5: The transition won’t be universally
replicated
Phases of decarbonization (from IIASA)
In sum, even the Nordic energy transition—
perhaps the exemplar for the world—is
politically contested and technologically
contingent
Contact Information
Benjamin K. Sovacool, Ph.D
Professor of Energy Policy
University of Sussex
Jubilee Building, Room 367
Falmer, East Sussex, BN1 9SL
UK: 01273 877128
International: +44 1273 877128