Benefit DriversWhat makes a good plan better?

Board decision criteria Navigation benefits Hydropower benefits

Outline

Perspectives:◦ What can Lake Superior regulation affect?◦ What shipments could reduce costs the most for

the least change in water levels?◦ Which water levels affect costs?

Analysis

Navigation benefits

Nav Benefits of Current Alternatives

Net Benefits77A 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 55M49 Bal1 PP

1-Sup $0.00 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.002-MH $0.00 $0.16 $0.15 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.093-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.004-E $0.00 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 -$0.02 -$0.01 -$0.015-S-MH $0.00 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.22 -$0.16 -$0.58 -$0.22 -$0.436-S-MH-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.07 -$0.03 -$0.057-S-MH-StC-E $0.00 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.21 -$0.60 -$0.13 -$0.578-MH-StC $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 -$0.019-MH-StC-E $0.00 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.0910-StC-E $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$0.00 -$0.18 -$0.19 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.21 -$0.17 -$1.74 -$0.48 -$1.25

Rank 1 5.5 9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 10 2 13 11 12

Things to notice

1. Almost no difference on costs for shipments below Michigan-Huron because there’s no almost no difference in the levels on Lake Erie

173

174

175

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

or Lake St. Clair

174

175

176

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Nav Benefits of Current Alternatives

Net Benefits77A 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 55M49 Bal1 PP

1-Sup $0.00 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 $0.002-MH $0.00 $0.16 $0.15 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.093-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.004-E $0.00 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.02 $0.01 -$0.02 -$0.01 -$0.015-S-MH $0.00 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.23 -$0.22 -$0.16 -$0.58 -$0.22 -$0.436-S-MH-StC $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.07 -$0.03 -$0.057-S-MH-StC-E $0.00 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.30 -$0.29 -$0.21 -$0.60 -$0.13 -$0.578-MH-StC $0.00 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 -$0.01 $0.00 -$0.019-MH-StC-E $0.00 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.16 $0.14 $0.09 -$0.22 -$0.05 -$0.0910-StC-E $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

$0.00 -$0.18 -$0.19 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.18 -$0.21 -$0.17 -$1.74 -$0.48 -$1.25

Rank 1 5.5 9 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 10 2 13 11 12

Things to notice

2. Some difference, not a lot, on shipments through the St. Marys River, where regulation plans can make a difference. Notice that preproject and 55Mod 48 are the worst.3. Plan 130 is the second ranked plan, and not much

better than Plan 129, which is ranked 10th.

SVM first slimmed down, removing all calculations outside of commercial navigatio

Two plan structure reduced to one plan Several variations on CN Subroutes

worksheet defined to find when, where and why costs went up

Analyzing the potential for nav benefits

Conn Channel finds the connecting channel depth

Conn Channel finds the connecting channel depth

East dock does just on of the many things CN SubRoutes does, it calculates the depth of water at the eastern dock for each trip category each month.

CN SubRoutes calculates cost for each trip category each month by finding the controlling depth for that month, then looking up the cost for that depth on CN Costs

And then cause looks at all three and fingers the body of water that was the shallowest along each trip. All the “Ds” here represent Lake Superior. Of course, these are trips on just Lake Superior, so that’s no surprise.

Here are trips between Lakes Michigan-Huron and Lake Superior showing both Cs (Michigan-Huron) and Ds (Lake Superior). What you don’t see are lot of Ls, Ms or Ns (SW Pier, US Slip, and Rock Cut)

Incr Costs calculates the difference between the costs each month, each trip and the lowest possible cost for that trip and month. The minimum costs are calculated on “Min Costs”.

Knowing for each month and trip category which body of water limits loading can provide a statistical portrait of what’s driving costs

Putting it together

Number of times a lake or connecting channel is the limiting factorRoutes Superior SW Pier US Slip Rock Cut MH Detroit R LSC (cc) LSC dock St Clair R Erie1-Sup 4,251 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-MH 0 0 0 0 41,202 0 0 0 0 03-StC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 0 04-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32,0465-S-MH 5,769 2,074 245 525 11,334 0 0 0 0 06-S-MH-StC 109 539 11 1 0 0 0 1,969 532 07-S-MH-StC-E 10,305 2,290 56 4 0 0 8 0 3,455 8,9528-MH-StC 0 0 0 0 2,280 0 0 4,914 109 09-MH-StC-E 0 0 0 0 29,189 0 7 0 4,555 17,47910-StC-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 206 0 0 4,917

Violet shading indicates routes affected by Lake Superior or St. Marys River

Loads for trips from Lake Superior to Michigan-Huron are affected most often by depths at the Lake Michigan dock, then the Lake Superior dock, and some at the SW Pier (not much at U.S. Slip or Rock Cut)

Putting it together

Number of times a lake or connecting channel is the limiting factorRoutes Superior SW Pier US Slip Rock Cut MH Detroit R LSC (cc) LSC dock St Clair R Erie1-Sup 4,251 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-MH 0 0 0 0 41,202 0 0 0 0 03-StC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 0 04-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32,0465-S-MH 5,769 2,074 245 525 11,334 0 0 0 0 06-S-MH-StC 109 539 11 1 0 0 0 1,969 532 07-S-MH-StC-E 10,305 2,290 56 4 0 0 8 0 3,455 8,9528-MH-StC 0 0 0 0 2,280 0 0 4,914 109 09-MH-StC-E 0 0 0 0 29,189 0 7 0 4,555 17,47910-StC-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 206 0 0 4,917

Violet shading indicates routes affected by Lake Superior or St. Marys River

There aren’t many trips to or from Lake St. Clair There are many trips between Lake Superior and Lake

Erie (these include trips beyond Erie),most limited by Lake Superior or Lake Erie dock depths. Again, some at SW Pier, not many at US Slip or Rock Cut.

Putting it together

Number of times a lake or connecting channel is the limiting factorRoutes Superior SW Pier US Slip Rock Cut MH Detroit R LSC (cc) LSC dock St Clair R Erie1-Sup 4,251 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02-MH 0 0 0 0 41,202 0 0 0 0 03-StC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 109 0 04-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32,0465-S-MH 5,769 2,074 245 525 11,334 0 0 0 0 06-S-MH-StC 109 539 11 1 0 0 0 1,969 532 07-S-MH-StC-E 10,305 2,290 56 4 0 0 8 0 3,455 8,9528-MH-StC 0 0 0 0 2,280 0 0 4,914 109 09-MH-StC-E 0 0 0 0 29,189 0 7 0 4,555 17,47910-StC-E 0 0 0 0 0 0 206 0 0 4,917

Violet shading indicates routes affected by Lake Superior or St. Marys River

Lake Superior over a long period of time St. Marys flows each month, and that

means U.S. Slip and S.W. Pier Michigan levels

What can Lake Superior regulation affect?

Three routes (5, 6 and 7) pass through the St. Marys, and they reflect about 55% of all shipping costs

Shipping that stays on Lake Superior is relatively small portion, but is also affected.

What shipments could reduce costs the most for the least change in water levels?

1 7-S-MH-StC-E $799,325,4782 4-E $490,706,9463 5-S-MH $429,809,5734 9-MH-StC-E $354,189,8895 2-MH $253,143,1526 6-S-MH-StC $239,978,9747 10-StC-E $58,122,6218 8-MH-StC $23,541,3299 1-Sup $20,572,960

10 3-StC $77,221

Fifty important sub-route months 705,999,324:

◦ May to Nov costs are among the highest, $15-35 million.

◦ Loads from Superior to beyond Lake Erie (find out)

◦ Costs increase at 317” (26.4 ft. or 8.1 m.)

◦ Limiting depth can occur beyond the reach of Superior regulation

Analysis

Rank Route Month Depth cut-off1 705,999,324 12 $35,630,347 3172 705,999,324 10 $32,512,080 3173 705,999,324 7 $28,248,701 3174 705,999,324 6 $27,542,804 3175 705,999,324 8 $25,264,768 3176 705,999,324 5 $24,411,302 3177 715,999,324 5 $21,146,539 3178 705,999,324 11 $20,392,574 3179 705,999,324 4 $19,025,542 317

10 705,999,324 9 $15,240,952 31711 725,312,324 8 $13,606,652 37112 725,264,312 7 $11,977,292 34513 725,312,312 6 $11,626,831 37114 545,312,324 9 $11,314,196 29915 725,312,324 9 $11,268,647 37116 545,312,324 4 $10,950,135 29917 725,312,324 7 $10,623,366 37118 725,312,324 5 $10,248,744 37119 725,264,312 10 $9,920,033 32420 705,318,999 8 $9,262,151 31721 705,318,999 9 $9,013,464 31722 725,324,324 9 $8,665,276 37123 725,312,324 10 $7,974,367 37124 705,318,999 5 $7,761,408 31725 725,324,324 8 $7,634,416 37126 725,324,312 6 $7,614,594 37127 725,324,324 7 $7,465,097 37128 725,324,348 10 $7,285,026 37129 725,312,324 4 $6,819,907 37130 725,288,312 6 $6,755,601 34131 725,324,348 5 $6,632,555 37032 725,288,324 9 $6,592,301 35933 725,264,312 8 $6,498,730 31334 725,288,324 11 $6,455,572 37135 725,288,324 12 $6,306,815 33736 725,288,324 4 $6,231,372 37137 725,324,312 10 $6,155,869 30238 725,324,324 5 $5,957,678 37039 725,312,324 1 $5,892,589 37140 725,288,324 8 $5,777,151 34141 725,300,312 11 $5,756,025 31642 725,288,324 10 $5,653,307 33743 725,288,324 5 $5,587,265 35944 725,288,324 7 $5,585,302 34145 725,324,324 6 $5,579,765 37046 725,324,348 9 $5,425,647 37147 725,324,324 12 $5,268,297 37148 725,324,324 11 $5,247,826 37149 725,324,348 7 $5,238,505 37050 725,324,348 11 $5,105,579 353

Fifty important sub-route months 705,999,324:

◦ From a Canadian port to a port below Lake Erie

◦ Big costs in all months except January-March

◦ Less than 317” of depth starts to raise costs

Rank Route Month Depth cut-off1 705,999,324 12 $35,630,347 3172 705,999,324 10 $32,512,080 3173 705,999,324 7 $28,248,701 3174 705,999,324 6 $27,542,804 3175 705,999,324 8 $25,264,768 3176 705,999,324 5 $24,411,302 3177 715,999,324 5 $21,146,539 3178 705,999,324 11 $20,392,574 3179 705,999,324 4 $19,025,542 317

10 705,999,324 9 $15,240,952 31711 725,312,324 8 $13,606,652 37112 725,264,312 7 $11,977,292 34513 725,312,312 6 $11,626,831 37114 545,312,324 9 $11,314,196 29915 725,312,324 9 $11,268,647 37116 545,312,324 4 $10,950,135 29917 725,312,324 7 $10,623,366 37118 725,312,324 5 $10,248,744 37119 725,264,312 10 $9,920,033 32420 705,318,999 8 $9,262,151 31721 705,318,999 9 $9,013,464 31722 725,324,324 9 $8,665,276 37123 725,312,324 10 $7,974,367 37124 705,318,999 5 $7,761,408 31725 725,324,324 8 $7,634,416 37126 725,324,312 6 $7,614,594 37127 725,324,324 7 $7,465,097 37128 725,324,348 10 $7,285,026 37129 725,312,324 4 $6,819,907 37130 725,288,312 6 $6,755,601 34131 725,324,348 5 $6,632,555 37032 725,288,324 9 $6,592,301 35933 725,264,312 8 $6,498,730 31334 725,288,324 11 $6,455,572 37135 725,288,324 12 $6,306,815 33736 725,288,324 4 $6,231,372 37137 725,324,312 10 $6,155,869 30238 725,324,324 5 $5,957,678 37039 725,312,324 1 $5,892,589 37140 725,288,324 8 $5,777,151 34141 725,300,312 11 $5,756,025 31642 725,288,324 10 $5,653,307 33743 725,288,324 5 $5,587,265 35944 725,288,324 7 $5,585,302 34145 725,324,324 6 $5,579,765 37046 725,324,348 9 $5,425,647 37147 725,324,324 12 $5,268,297 37148 725,324,324 11 $5,247,826 37149 725,324,348 7 $5,238,505 37050 725,324,348 11 $5,105,579 353